Betting on the rising star - should it be allowed

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GuzzLG

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#27
What are peoples thoughts on this?

Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.

Look at the judges, would you actually classify them as football experts?

Gillon McLachlan (chairman), Kevin Sheehan, Kevin Bartlett, Luke Darcy, Andrew Dillon, Danny Frawley, Glen Jakovich, Chris Johnson, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea

The main criteria for awarding the medal is "judges vote on output this season and not on potential".

So what is output? Are we talking statistics?

Comparing the two statistically:


McGrath vs Burton
Avg Disposals 19.7 21.3
Disposal efficiency 82% 81%
Meters Gained 196.3 343.1
Av Kicks 8.6 13.4
Av contested possies 5.2 5.1
Av intercept possies 4.9 5.9
Av marks 4 5.7
goals 1 4
av score involvements 3.3 3.5
av tackles 2.7 2.9
av inside 50's 1.1 2.4
av rebounds 2.3 3.8

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Interestingly not one of the supposed "expert" judges gave Burton 5 votes.

Betting agencies should be paying out on Burton as that result is a disgrace based on the above criteria. Hence why Burton was paying $1.40

Going forward the judges should be forced to explain why they gave the 5,4,3,2,1

I'd love to hear someones thoughts from one of the betting agencies. I'm sure they read this. This result based on the above is a disgrace.
Why is Burton paying $1.40 when he should have won without any doubt?

Shouldn't he have been paying $1.00 then?
 

SickQwon

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#29
Given the last 3 Rising Star winners were complete bogus, people should know by now that the Rising Star is a stupid bet...

...Unless you're David King.
 

PP34

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#30
Knowing who will be voting and that it is entirely a subjective award should really make it against the rules to bet on... And not try and fix the result.

If you sat in the right circle of people you could know all of them and every year put down your end of season bonus on the player who will win, add a free 30% to your cash.

Who would ever know.
The bookies
 

Lensen

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#33
you bet on a shithouse subjective market with no actual criteria and lost so it should be banned? LOL how very 21st century Australia, do you carry no personal responsibility?
 

Crankyhawk

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#34
:tearsofjoy:

You can bet on staged TV series ffs.

It's a bet entered into by the bookie and the punter, both knowing the rules.

Stupid thread.
Agree, the issue is punters being stupid enough to bet on an opinion not a fact. Brownlow at least accumulates votes over time rather than getting a group of opinions in a room and says pick them.
 

99 Problems

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#36
Bookies generally don't allow any significant bets on markets like this due to the possibility of being rorted themselves. Betting gets suspended close to the announcement as once the decision is made that's when people with inside sources can bet and whispers generally get around pretty quickly.

People mentioning betting on things like Tv shows and WWE, you certainly can't place big bets on these, bookies just open the market to generate interest in their product. As a bookmaker that's just how we do things from our side of things (obviously each bookie/company can be different)
 

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craffles

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#40
What are peoples thoughts on this?

Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.

Look at the judges, would you actually classify them as football experts?

Gillon McLachlan (chairman), Kevin Sheehan, Kevin Bartlett, Luke Darcy, Andrew Dillon, Danny Frawley, Glen Jakovich, Chris Johnson, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea

The main criteria for awarding the medal is "judges vote on output this season and not on potential".

So what is output? Are we talking statistics?

Comparing the two statistically:


McGrath vs Burton
Avg Disposals 19.7 21.3
Disposal efficiency 82% 81%
Meters Gained 196.3 343.1
Av Kicks 8.6 13.4
Av contested possies 5.2 5.1
Av intercept possies 4.9 5.9
Av marks 4 5.7
goals 1 4
av score involvements 3.3 3.5
av tackles 2.7 2.9
av inside 50's 1.1 2.4
av rebounds 2.3 3.8

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Interestingly not one of the supposed "expert" judges gave Burton 5 votes.

Betting agencies should be paying out on Burton as that result is a disgrace based on the above criteria. Hence why Burton was paying $1.40

Going forward the judges should be forced to explain why they gave the 5,4,3,2,1

I'd love to hear someones thoughts from one of the betting agencies. I'm sure they read this. This result based on the above is a disgrace.
It's not based on "stats" and both the media and BigFootys obsession with using a numerical figure to rate players performance as being better or more worthy of an award is ******* annoying. McGrath played like a 200 gamer down back in his first season, his composure was brilliant, he opened the game up with vision and well guided kicks and started running thru the midfield end of the year. He was a more than worthy winner.

STFU and accept you lost your money betting on stupid shit
 

Ilksy

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#41
Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.
I'm sure you'd be saying none of these things if you won. Suck it up and don't bet on it next year if you find it so unfair.
 

AcuteWhistle

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#43
What are peoples thoughts on this?

Do people think it's right that you can bet on the rising star, for me its too subjective and based on supposed expert judges opinion.

Look at the judges, would you actually classify them as football experts?

Gillon McLachlan (chairman), Kevin Sheehan, Kevin Bartlett, Luke Darcy, Andrew Dillon, Danny Frawley, Glen Jakovich, Chris Johnson, Cameron Ling, Matthew Richardson and Warren Tredrea

The main criteria for awarding the medal is "judges vote on output this season and not on potential".

So what is output? Are we talking statistics?

Comparing the two statistically:


McGrath vs Burton
Avg Disposals 19.7 21.3
Disposal efficiency 82% 81%
Meters Gained 196.3 343.1
Av Kicks 8.6 13.4
Av contested possies 5.2 5.1
Av intercept possies 4.9 5.9
Av marks 4 5.7
goals 1 4
av score involvements 3.3 3.5
av tackles 2.7 2.9
av inside 50's 1.1 2.4
av rebounds 2.3 3.8

Burton has McGrath covered in all but 2 of the above criteria and in most cases comfortably, so what is output?

Interestingly not one of the supposed "expert" judges gave Burton 5 votes.

Betting agencies should be paying out on Burton as that result is a disgrace based on the above criteria. Hence why Burton was paying $1.40

Going forward the judges should be forced to explain why they gave the 5,4,3,2,1

I'd love to hear someones thoughts from one of the betting agencies. I'm sure they read this. This result based on the above is a disgrace.

Those stats don't reflect the outstanding job McGrath did limiting otherwise dangerous forwards, game after game after game.

I didn't see enough of Burton to be able to make a definitive call on who had the better season, but I would say I find it hard to fathom that he could have had a better one than McGrath who was simply outstanding for a first year player.
 

mfcrox

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#44
I HATE Hawthorn... but Burton was robbed here.

McGrath winning was just another addition to the amazing 'Essendon rebounds from drugs despair' story. Was even evident last weekend when the umpires gave them EVERY POSSIBLE chance to make finals by umpiring Fremantle out of the contest.
 

Fadge

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#45
No problem with betting. You can't complain that you lost your money on a popularity award. Although it was pretty easy to read the tea leaves on where this one was going in the last few weeks as the McGrath hype built with a strong finish to the year.

My issue is with the voting system. It is a popularity contest using mostly basic stats and gut feel to determine a players impact then labelled as a 'rising star'.

I'd rather pick 3 judges (as part of a far more diverse panel of maybe 30 or so judges) score each eligible players game with a score out of 10 for a combined score out of 30. Then I'd add the best 10 games for every player together for their total score. Play 10 games and that's your 10 scores. Play 22 and you get your 10 best so there is reward for playing regularly. Utilising all the different media and officials who watch games would allow for different judges to cover different players and make sure the judges are scoring players they've actually watched.

I'd make sure that scores of 8, 9 and 10 are only given out in truly outstanding games so that the tall forwards and goal kickers get fair value from their damaging games whilst midfielders and flankers aren't overscored for accumulating decent stats. Add up the scores at the end of the season and you'd find a true rising star who has played a large number of high impact games.
Great post, I can't agree more with it.

There has never been any formal criteria disclosed for this award.

Was Burton downgraded in the voters' minds because he was in his second year on the list? Quite possibly, and if so come out and disclose the fact that preference is given to first year players.

This is the only way I can see McGrath favoured ahead of Burton.

Oh, and by the way, I backed McGrath.
 
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