Analysis Beveridge - where to from here?

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footyfan000001

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With all the excitement of 2016, it’s easy to overlook Round 5 2015 as a game for the ages. Extra special for having Bob, as well as several lesser lights playing heroically.

Yep def a favourite from 2015. Can’t go past round 4 I think it was against the crows at Etihad. Was very fun to watch!
 
Struggling to see us kick 16+ goals regularly with the way things are currently.
I agree 16 + (96-106) is a lot to ask

Particularly if we look at our averages over the last 4 years

2018 - 71.59
2017 - 84.41
2016 - 84.41
2015 - 95.77 (almost)
As I posted earlier, 16 goals is not the benchmark these days.
The top 8 last year only averaged 92.26 points last year - or about 14 goals 10 behinds. Even the top 4 only averaged 92.88.

If we average 90 points (13 or 14 goals) we'll make the finals IMO. No side outside the top 8 last year averaged 90 points.
Average 95 points (say 14 goals 11 behinds) and we'll be a very good chance to finish top 4.
 

ivan rassmussen

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Jun 28, 2007
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As I posted earlier, 16 goals is not the benchmark these days.
The top 8 last year only averaged 92.26 points last year - or about 14 goals 10 behinds. Even the top 4 only averaged 92.88.

If we average 90 points (13 or 14 goals) we'll make the finals IMO. No side outside the top 8 last year averaged 90 points.
Average 95 points (say 14 goals 11 behinds) and we'll be a very good chance to finish top 4.

Nice one dogwatch, forever introducing factual analysis into a thread... this is BF man, get with the vibe! 🙂

Seriously though, a very good point you make. Where do you think those 90-95 points will come from though? Assuming (!!!) our kicking can’t be as bad as the past 2 years, 90 points should be 13.12 or thereabouts. That’s 286 goals for the year, give or take (or 264 if we kick 12.18 as an average, which is not beyond the realms of possibility either!).
(Very) Optimistically imho:
Schache 40
Gowers 30
Lloyd 30
Dickson 25
Wallis 25
That’s 150, need another 120-136.
Double figures from Bont, maybe 20-ish, but who else? Suckling 10-15, Maclean? Greene? B Lynch? Dale? JJ?
The last 2 seasons would indicate we’ll struggle to hit the required scoring, unless a couple of players have breakout years. ☹️
 
With the Devil’s number rules this year scoring will go up - because the AFL wants it that way - what was is no longer - 16 might not be a useful benchmark


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That's a fair point. We'll have to wait and see whether 14 goals is good enough again this year. Not so much the 6-6-6 (which I don't think will have a massive impact) but other rules aimed at reducing congestion and repeat stoppages. Things like grabbing the ball in the ruck and the new kick-in rules after a behind.
Nice one dogwatch, forever introducing factual analysis into a thread... this is BF man, get with the vibe! 🙂

Seriously though, a very good point you make. Where do you think those 90-95 points will come from though? Assuming (!!!) our kicking can’t be as bad as the past 2 years, 90 points should be 13.12 or thereabouts. That’s 286 goals for the year, give or take (or 264 if we kick 12.18 as an average, which is not beyond the realms of possibility either!).
(Very) Optimistically imho:
Schache 40
Gowers 30
Lloyd 30
Dickson 25
Wallis 25
That’s 150, need another 120-136.
Double figures from Bont, maybe 20-ish, but who else? Suckling 10-15, Maclean? Greene? B Lynch? Dale? JJ?
The last 2 seasons would indicate we’ll struggle to hit the required scoring, unless a couple of players have breakout years. ☹️
Starting from zero is a hard way to work it out. It might be easier to ask how can we get from 224 (2018 goals tally) to 286?
i.e. Where are the extra 62 goals going to come from?

Here's a stab with last year's goals tally in brackets:
Bont (22) +5 maybe more if he gets 30% time at FF/CHF
Wallis (20) +5
Schache (17) +15
McLean (11) +10 if he is genuinely going to be spending much of his time up forward as suggested
Dickson (8) +10 even if he can only play half a season
Lloyd (new) +20

Other swings and roundabouts
So that's 65 goals but of course we are going to lose goals elsewhere: Dahl, Honeychurch and Roughead got 13 between them last year, Boyd (6) and Jong (7) are injured and who knows whether they'll have any impact at all in 2019. I'm not sure we'll get 12 out of Lipinski again in 2019 (but hope he proves me wrong) and I'd be surprised if we get 26 goals out of Gowers again this year ... I'd happily settle for 20.

Offsetting that are players like Naughton and English who could spend serious minutes up forward during the year. They only kicked 3 between them last year - that figure could be 15-20 this year. Then there are players like Greene, Dale, Williams, Richards, Bailey Smith and Lynch, etc who could all kick on, while Libba is usually good for 8-10 goals minimum.

So it's definitely feasible but obviously a few things (players, systems) will have to click for us to kick around 290 goals.
 

Yojimbo

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The "Elephant" in the room.
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Top 100 Goal Kickers In The Competition 2018 (Team Spread)

Melbourne: 235
Collingwood: 220
West Coast: 209
Hawthorn: 201
Richmond: 191
Sydney: 177
Brisbane: 177
Geelong: 173

North Melbourne: 166
Port Adelaide: 166
GWS: 152
Adelaide: 133
Essendon: 121
St Kilda: 104
Fremantle: 99
Western Bulldogs: 85
Carlton: 76
Gold Coast: 68

You want to swim at the deep end of the pool you need some big kahunas if people
think you can scrape some goals together at the bottom of the pile and contend
they are mistaken. There is a reason only one glorious team has won the flag from
seventh place, you need a lot of luck. If you are a formula one team who starts
from 12th on the grid every week you can't hope the 11 cars in front of you break
down every week, it may happen once. (Grand Prix Analogy)
 

WallyStringhaus

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Interesting video interview with Bevo on Dogs Website. The guy seems to really crave continuity, the consistency of his message and places so much faith and trust in his support team. I think we are quick to forget that so many coaches have their own ideologies on how the game should be played and so, so many fail. Bevo has shown, wherever he has coached, that he knows what it takes to win.

He inherited a team that was broken both on and off the field and made them champions within two short years, a feat none of us in our wildest dreams would have deemed possible. Now he is shaping and molding his own team in the hope of creating sustained success and I have the utmost faith in his abilities to deliver.

For those who bemoan the fact that we haven't changed assistant coaching personnel, that we have failed to pinch "intelligence" from rival clubs, please consider the following method derived from a team within a different professional sport. The San Antonio Spurs;

Gregg Popovich - Head Coach (23 years)
RC Buford - GM (17 years)
Will Sevening - Head Athletic Trainer (21 years)
Leslie Giese - Executive Asst. Basketball Operations (23 years)
Lawrence Payne - Executive Vice President (43 years)
Chip Engelland - Shooting Coach (14 years)
Mike Budenholzer - Assistant Coach (18 years) - Now coach of Bucks (No.1 in East)
Brett Brown - Assistant Coach (12 years) - Now coach of 76ers (No.3 in East)
Board of Directors - Unchanged in 23 years

The results? - 5 Championships from 6 finals appearances across three decades, haven't missed the playoffs since 1997.

Believe it or not there are some real benefits to having an organisation that creates a culture of continuity, consistency of the message and trust in the people to execute that message. All things, as I mentioned earlier, that Bevo finds important.

I've never wavered from the opinion that we are building towards sustained success under Luke. We need to be realistic in what this football side has to offer over the next few seasons. If we are still struggling when the likes of Bont, Jacko, Dunks, English, Toby, Schache, Naughton, Richards, etc are in their mid 20's then we most definitely have failed and i'll happily eat my words. I severely doubt that will happen. Keep the faith!
 

Freshwater

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Great post Wally, we must be patient. Remember Hawthorn ‘08. We can’t be an exact replica of them, but they stuck to their program and lost key personal. They had great leaders and champions everywhere, but no one knew it then. We can’t be a ‘reactionary’ club, like Carlton and others have been.
 
Interesting video interview with Bevo on Dogs Website. The guy seems to really crave continuity, the consistency of his message and places so much faith and trust in his support team. I think we are quick to forget that so many coaches have their own ideologies on how the game should be played and so, so many fail. Bevo has shown, wherever he has coached, that he knows what it takes to win.

He inherited a team that was broken both on and off the field and made them champions within two short years, a feat none of us in our wildest dreams would have deemed possible. Now he is shaping and molding his own team in the hope of creating sustained success and I have the utmost faith in his abilities to deliver.

For those who bemoan the fact that we haven't changed assistant coaching personnel, that we have failed to pinch "intelligence" from rival clubs, please consider the following method derived from a team within a different professional sport. The San Antonio Spurs;

Gregg Popovich - Head Coach (23 years)
RC Buford - GM (17 years)
Will Sevening - Head Athletic Trainer (21 years)
Leslie Giese - Executive Asst. Basketball Operations (23 years)
Lawrence Payne - Executive Vice President (43 years)
Chip Engelland - Shooting Coach (14 years)
Mike Budenholzer - Assistant Coach (18 years) - Now coach of Bucks (No.1 in East)
Brett Brown - Assistant Coach (12 years) - Now coach of 76ers (No.3 in East)
Board of Directors - Unchanged in 23 years

The results? - 5 Championships from 6 finals appearances across three decades, haven't missed the playoffs since 1997.

Believe it or not there are some real benefits to having an organisation that creates a culture of continuity, consistency of the message and trust in the people to execute that message. All things, as I mentioned earlier, that Bevo finds important.

I've never wavered from the opinion that we are building towards sustained success under Luke. We need to be realistic in what this football side has to offer over the next few seasons. If we are still struggling when the likes of Bont, Jacko, Dunks, English, Toby, Schache, Naughton, Richards, etc are in their mid 20's then we most definitely have failed and i'll happily eat my words. I severely doubt that will happen. Keep the faith!

Early post of the year contender. Thank you.
 

Jeff 1975

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Mar 29, 2018
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As I posted earlier, 16 goals is not the benchmark these days.
The top 8 last year only averaged 92.26 points last year - or about 14 goals 10 behinds. Even the top 4 only averaged 92.88.

If we average 90 points (13 or 14 goals) we'll make the finals IMO. No side outside the top 8 last year averaged 90 points.
Average 95 points (say 14 goals 11 behinds) and we'll be a very good chance to finish top 4.

Nice one dogwatch, forever introducing factual analysis into a thread... this is BF man, get with the vibe! 🙂

Seriously though, a very good point you make. Where do you think those 90-95 points will come from though? Assuming (!!!) our kicking can’t be as bad as the past 2 years, 90 points should be 13.12 or thereabouts. That’s 286 goals for the year, give or take (or 264 if we kick 12.18 as an average, which is not beyond the realms of possibility either!).
(Very) Optimistically imho:
Schache 40
Gowers 30
Lloyd 30
Dickson 25
Wallis 25
That’s 150, need another 120-136.
Double figures from Bont, maybe 20-ish, but who else? Suckling 10-15, Maclean? Greene? B Lynch? Dale? JJ?
The last 2 seasons would indicate we’ll struggle to hit the required scoring, unless a couple of players have breakout years. ☹️


Thank you dogwatch for jumping in, it’s refreshing to see an optimistic supporter such as yourself regarding the possible outcomes of 2019

Also a big thanks to Ivan as well, I remember watching Ivan play at the Western Oval. In 1974 we were on a roll & it was great watching Laurie Sandilands lead the side

In those days you could go into the rooms after the game, I can’t remember the round (about 10) or the game (100 percent we won) but I do remember Laurie standing up and saying we are now on top of the ladder, we lifted the roof off the Whitten Stand that day

Back to dogwatch

I see you have quoted on my 2018 comments only & not the 3 other years, but that’s ok I will expand on 2018 shortly

Firstly I would like to comment on your responses & make some corrections

If 16 goals is not the benchmark & an average of 90 points is to be the new benchmark this would affect our average, meaning our average of 71.59 in 2018 would fall in 2019 along with all other teams

At this point it might be prudent to comment that the new rules may increase the benchmark rendering all this useless

Your average of 14 goals 10 behinds is actually 94 points not 92.26 points

Your average of 90 points is actually 15 goals not 13 or 14

Your average of 95 points (14 goals 11 behinds) is also 15 goals 5 behinds & is actually just 1 point below the quoted 16 goals

There’s more it than just average scores to look at here

Finishing in the 8 depends on how many wins we have & percentage

Now let’s look at your 2018 examples

2018 we needed 13 wins & a percentage over 131.6 to finish in 8th spot

Let’s say we have 13 wins we would need a higher for-score of 2683 which is an average score of 122 points to make a percentage of 132 to finish in 8th spot

An average of 122 is a bit more than your average of 90

We have similar results for all positions in 2018 & the 3 other years

So what does this mean, imposing an average over last year or year’s gone by doesn’t stack-up because you have fixed variables

Therefore I would say we are both right to a certain degree

Personally if we score 100 points plus we would win enough games to make the 8 & have a very good percentage as well
 

dergert

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I can't see how a man as smart as beveridge with such a strong history of success in his previous roles would willingly balls up his first club after a flag. We are so unknown behind closed doors, we offer so much less fan engagement compared to the other clubs.
 
Thank you dogwatch for jumping in, it’s refreshing to see an optimistic supporter such as yourself regarding the possible outcomes of 2019

Also a big thanks to Ivan as well, I remember watching Ivan play at the Western Oval. In 1974 we were on a roll & it was great watching Laurie Sandilands lead the side

In those days you could go into the rooms after the game, I can’t remember the round (about 10) or the game (100 percent we won) but I do remember Laurie standing up and saying we are now on top of the ladder, we lifted the roof off the Whitten Stand that day

Back to dogwatch

I see you have quoted on my 2018 comments only & not the 3 other years, but that’s ok I will expand on 2018 shortly

Firstly I would like to comment on your responses & make some corrections

If 16 goals is not the benchmark & an average of 90 points is to be the new benchmark this would affect our average, meaning our average of 71.59 in 2018 would fall in 2019 along with all other teams

At this point it might be prudent to comment that the new rules may increase the benchmark rendering all this useless

Your average of 14 goals 10 behinds is actually 94 points not 92.26 points

Your average of 90 points is actually 15 goals not 13 or 14

Your average of 95 points (14 goals 11 behinds) is also 15 goals 5 behinds & is actually just 1 point below the quoted 16 goals

There’s more it than just average scores to look at here

Finishing in the 8 depends on how many wins we have & percentage

Now let’s look at your 2018 examples

2018 we needed 13 wins & a percentage over 131.6 to finish in 8th spot

Let’s say we have 13 wins we would need a higher for-score of 2683 which is an average score of 122 points to make a percentage of 132 to finish in 8th spot

An average of 122 is a bit more than your average of 90

We have similar results for all positions in 2018 & the 3 other years

So what does this mean, imposing an average over last year or year’s gone by doesn’t stack-up because you have fixed variables

Therefore I would say we are both right to a certain degree

Personally if we score 100 points plus we would win enough games to make the 8 & have a very good percentage as well
Sorry Jeff but I don't quite get where you are coming from on this.

The original question was how many goals would be needed to make the finals/be a force. I said it used to be 16 (a figure Terry Wallace used to talk about in the 90s) but scoring has declined in recent years and last year 14 would have been enough. I agree the new rules could have some effect but we don't know how much.

There will always be some behinds scored too, of course. Important loose change.

In my opinion if we kick an average of 90 points a game in 2019 we should make the finals. I don't think we'll actually do that but that's the benchmark I'm suggesting. I don't really care how we get those 90 points (and it's only an average across 22 games so might never score exactly 90) but I don't think in the history of the AFL anyone has kicked 15-0.

Your example for 2018 has many flaws but the most obvious is this: if we managed 14 wins then percentage would have been irrelevant in terms of making the finals. For example Sydney finished 6th on 14 wins and they only had a percentage of 109.5. They didn't need 132%.

Final point: Only one team averaged over 100 pts last year (Melbourne). The premiers (WCE) averaged 91.45. I think 100+ average would be overkill again this year. Nice to have, but not essential.
 

Jeff 1975

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Sorry Jeff but I don't quite get where you are coming from on this.

The original question was how many goals would be needed to make the finals/be a force. I said it used to be 16 (a figure Terry Wallace used to talk about in the 90s) but scoring has declined in recent years and last year 14 would have been enough. I agree the new rules could have some effect but we don't know how much.

There will always be some behinds scored too, of course. Important loose change.

In my opinion if we kick an average of 90 points a game in 2019 we should make the finals. I don't think we'll actually do that but that's the benchmark I'm suggesting. I don't really care how we get those 90 points (and it's only an average across 22 games so might never score exactly 90) but I don't think in the history of the AFL anyone has kicked 15-0.

Your example for 2018 has many flaws but the most obvious is this: if we managed 14 wins then percentage would have been irrelevant in terms of making the finals. For example Sydney finished 6th on 14 wins and they only had a percentage of 109.5. They didn't need 132%.

Final point: Only one team averaged over 100 pts last year (Melbourne). The premiers (WCE) averaged 91.45. I think 100+ average would be overkill again this year. Nice to have, but not essential.


I thought that might confuse you, as it was starting to confuse me

As I stated imposing an average over a completed year is tricky

Anyhow I was responding to a post by Dazb86 & didn’t see your post on a similar theme

I think 90 points is a bit low & it’s predicated on win / loss & percentage

So I agree to disagree

In my post I quoted 4 years of averages

Your example is for one year in isolation

My examples on the quoted 4 year averages are as follows

2017 Melbourne & North both averaged over 90 & both missed the 8

2016 Port averaged over 90 & missed the 8

2015 Again Port averaged over 90 & missed the 8

You may be right & teams with an average of 90 might make the 8

And I may be right & teams with an average of 90 might miss the 8

Anyhow all will be revealed soon enough
 
I thought that might confuse you, as it was starting to confuse me

As I stated imposing an average over a completed year is tricky

Anyhow I was responding to a post by Dazb86 & didn’t see your post on a similar theme

I think 90 points is a bit low & it’s predicated on win / loss & percentage

So I agree to disagree

In my post I quoted 4 years of averages

Your example is for one year in isolation

My examples on the quoted 4 year averages are as follows

2017 Melbourne & North both averaged over 90 & both missed the 8

2016 Port averaged over 90 & missed the 8

2015 Again Port averaged over 90 & missed the 8

You may be right & teams with an average of 90 might make the 8

And I may be right & teams with an average of 90 might miss the 8

Anyhow all will be revealed soon enough
Fair enough. I take your point. I'll watch with interest.

For many years there seemed to be a constant in AFL and that was the average score per game (all teams averaged over the H&A season) which was about 90-91 points. It hardly seemed to vary. However in recent years it has dipped and last year it had dropped to 83.5, a clear indication that games were less free-flowing and/or teams were adopting more effective defensive strategies. It may just be a coincidence but we seldom get any Coleman medallist anywhere near 100 goals these days either. The last one to kick over 100 was Franklin in 2008 and before that it was Lockett in the 1990s.

So anyway, if the downward trend continues or stays where it was in 2018 then 90 points average will be enough to make the finals. Even if the recent rule changes bump that up to an average of 92-93 points that's still only 14 goals a game in my book (plus the usual quota of behinds).

Lastly, here's another interesting fact on "goals needed": the last three years have seen the premiers average fewer than 14 goals a game during the H&A season:
2016 - WB - 12.18
2017 - Richmond - 13.05
2018 - West Coast - 13.41

Thanks for agreeing to disagree respectfully BTW. It's refreshing.
 
We are a very young developing team. There are some clear structural(quality) deficiencies in our big men.

Unless we are noncompetitive for a full year I would like o think Luke will be our coach for at least the next 3 years to bring his group together.

We are very short sighted with our coaching, week to week year to year.

If Buckley and Harwick had been sacked when their clubs were down we we are after beginning their careers with moderate success then it is like the Tiges would not have been 2017 premiers and The pies one kick away last year. If the Hawks moved on Clarkson as Kennett wanted to do after a drop off from their flag would they have won a three peat.

Luke has proved he can coach a premiership. Whilst that does not earn him escape from criticism it does earn him time. Clarkson was senior coach in his 5th year for his first flag and 10th for his second. Hardwick was in his 8th year for his first and Buckley his 7th before making a Grand Final. When you do not have concessions or the benefit of a significant home ground advantage it takes time to build a team for sustained success.

Luke is in his 5th, I will judge where we are heading at the end of his 7th
 

Mattdougie

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We are a very young developing team. There are some clear structural(quality) deficiencies in our big men.

Unless we are noncompetitive for a full year I would like o think Luke will be our coach for at least the next 3 years to bring his group together.

We are very short sighted with our coaching, week to week year to year.

If Buckley and Harwick had been sacked when their clubs were down we we are after beginning their careers with moderate success then it is like the Tiges would not have been 2017 premiers and The pies one kick away last year. If the Hawks moved on Clarkson as Kennett wanted to do after a drop off from their flag would they have won a three peat.

Luke has proved he can coach a premiership. Whilst that does not earn him escape from criticism it does earn him time. Clarkson was senior coach in his 5th year for his first flag and 10th for his second. Hardwick was in his 8th year for his first and Buckley his 7th before making a Grand Final. When you do not have concessions or the benefit of a significant home ground advantage it takes time to build a team for sustained success.

Luke is in his 5th, I will judge where we are heading at the end of his 7th

I agree but if we have another down year we must do what the pies and tigs did and completely overhaul the coaching staff around Bev.

They look devoid of ability and ideas and the courage to challenge Bev
 
I agree but if we have another down year we must do what the pies and tigs did and completely overhaul the coaching staff around Bev.

They look devoid of ability and ideas and the courage to challenge Bev
It really is simply good practice every couple of years no matter how well you are doing, to get someone from outside the group to do a review to determine not only how individuals are going but how the coaching group are functioning as a team and not waiting as long as the Tigs and Pies did before they completed their reviews
 

cecil

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Pretty shitty when a club stalwart like Brad Johnson is publicly doubting Beveridge's game style.
I don't think his past with the club should affect his role as a journalist to be honest. It's annoying when past players favour their old clubs
 

Johnny_Dogg4

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Apr 5, 2017
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if we still cant defend against tall forwards , and still struggle to score. expect the same results as last year.
if we can improve on either , then expect improvement
 
Fantastic appointment at the end of 2014 and he reinvigorated a bored list at the time climbing the moutain to the holy land but ever since then it seems like he has lost the plot.

He has pushed premiership players out that are performing well at their new clubs and his lack of structure in his team selections are a disaster. Seems to have favourites on the list while others are playing great footy at vfl level but cant get a look in.

Thoughts?
 

Braybrook Son

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 4, 2016
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Yes. He lost me after yesterday’s debacle, OUT. And he can take the assistance with him. Clean out is required
 
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