Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

F_therest

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I like the cutoff being pre-93/2011 draft (or equivalent) and floating, rather than excluding him now that he's hit 25. Yes, the 'youth' definition gets a bit muddy, but for mine it's more about the 'list within a list' coming through with the rebuild rather than purely looking at those in with sub-7 years experience.

Taking that into account, Fasolo misses out, but we've got a another couple of additions not really mentioned yet.

2011: Docherty, Bugg (GWS underage selection), Newman (2015 rookie draft)
2012: Plowman, McGovern (2014 draft)
2013: Cripps, Lang
2014: Pickett, Marchbank, Garlett, Goddard
2015: Curnow, Weitering, McKay, Kennedy, Cuningham, Silvagni, Owies (2018 rookie draft)
2016: Setterfield, Petrevski-Seton, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, LeBois
2017: Dow, O'Brien, De Koning, Schumacher
2018: Walsh, Stocker, O'Dwyer, Silvagni

Incredibly that's 34 players... the remaining names being Simpson, Thomas, Murphy, Lobbe, Kreuzer, Curnow, Casboult, Jones, Phillips & Fasolo (in order of age).

Going to be interesting to watch these graphs track for the 2019 season, especially as more of our young guns approach the 40 game mark for the purpose of AFL player ratings.
The sad thing is, realistically we'll have done well to get out of the bottom 5. If our kids show good signs and we finish 12th in 2019, i'd consider that a decent season with a goal of top 8 in 2020.

If our oldies were even 2 years younger, and our kids since 2015 were 2 years older, we'd probably be in top 4 contention.

List management and age profiles do matter. Sadly something our previous regime had no idea about.
 

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Jeremias

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FlowersByIrene Jeremias would be great if the age brackets could mirror one another.

Happy to help make it easier to extract the information for you both, if it is too labour intensive
Think I already have the revised figures, and whilst they are different from those kept originally, they still show a significant amount of progress.

This time around, have cleaned them up and haven't featured any player no longer on our list.
 

FlowersByIrene

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FlowersByIrene Jeremias would be great if the age brackets could mirror one another.

Happy to help make it easier to extract the information for you both, if it is too labour intensive
For my purposes, the "list within a list" that is our "youth" and "alumi-youth" is any player who was 23 and under at the start of the 2016 season. Which, based off of footywire, would be:

1993: Newman, Bugg, Doch
1994: Plow, McGovern
1995: Cripps, Lang
1996: Garlett, Pickett, Goddard, Marchy
1997: Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, McDaid, Weitering, Silvagni, McKay, Owies
1998: Setterfield, SPS, Polson, Macreadie, LeBois, Fisher, Kerr, Williamson
1999: Schumacher, DeKoning, O'Brien, Dow
2000: O'Dwyer, Silvagni, Stocker, Walsh

Totalling 36 players, which is a stagering 82% of our list.

Just quietly, look at the density of talent in this range <3 (bolded).

It would be handy if we could grab some players from the 1996 or 1995 age group through free agency/trade - Josh Kelly, Jack Billing, Matt Crouch, James Sicily would be lovely, just quietly the 2014 draft (the 1996 boys) is utterly terrible. There isn'tmany genuine good players who are a chance to trade clubs. De Goey, Brayshaw, Petracca, Heeney are all locked up I would say, whereas the rest is littered with duds, Toby McLean maybe?
 

Mezzoculo

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For my purposes, the "list within a list" that is our "youth" and "alumi-youth" is any player who was 23 and under at the start of the 2016 season. Which, based off of footywire, would be:

1993: Newman, Bugg, Doch
1994: Plow, McGovern
1995: Cripps, Lang
1996: Garlett, Pickett, Goddard, Marchy
1997: Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, McDaid, Weitering, Silvagni, McKay, Owies
1998: Setterfield, SPS, Polson, Macreadie, LeBois, Fisher, Kerr, Williamson
1999: Schumacher, DeKoning, O'Brien, Dow
2000: O'Dwyer, Silvagni, Stocker, Walsh

Totalling 36 players, which is a stagering 82% of our list.

Just quietly, look at the density of talent in this range <3 (bolded).

It would be handy if we could grab some players from the 1996 or 1995 age group through free agency/trade - Josh Kelly, Jack Billing, Matt Crouch, James Sicily would be lovely, just quietly the 2014 draft (the 1996 boys) is utterly terrible. There isn'tmany genuine good players who are a chance to trade clubs. De Goey, Brayshaw, Petracca, Heeney are all locked up I would say, whereas the rest is littered with duds, Toby McLean maybe?
McLean is pretty under-rated outside of the Dogs and unfortunately we'd have bugger all chance of tempting him away.
 

FlowersByIrene

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Total AFL Player Rating Points.png


The graph above represents the total AFL Player Ratings points of all youth across the last two years. With 1 representing Round 1 2017, 2 representing Round 11 2017, 3 representing Round 23 2017, 4 representing Round 1 2018 and so on. Number 7 indicates the current point in time, post list cuts and additions.

Unlike the general graph, which tracks the average AFL player rating of our best 22, this graph represents the total rating of all the youth on our list, regardless of whether they have played.

While the drop from point 6 to 7 (Round 23 to Now) may appear as a decline, this is only off the back of cutting experienced youth such as Kerridge, Graham and Lamb and adding in four additional kids with 0 AFL Player Points.

Therefore, ignoring the recent drop, which will be corrected by Round 11 this season, we can see a steady increase in the total AFL Player Ratings over time. Not only does this indicate an increase in total number of kids we have on the list, but an increased output, as each one of those kids plays games and builds their AFL Player Rating basis.

With fewer draftees introduced this season, we can expect to see an impressive climb in our total AFL Player Ratings, both on a best 22 basis and a general basis as Docherty returns to football, Fisher, SPS and Curnow shoot well past 40 games, Marchbank, Kennedy, McKay and Dow approach 40 games and our draftees generally get some games under their feet.

Bring on 2019.
 
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thylacine60

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View attachment 591824

The graph above represents the total AFL Player Ratings points of all youth across the last two years. With 1 representing Round 1 2017, 1 representing Round 11 2017, 3 representing Round 23 2017, 4 representing Round 1 2018 and so on. Number 7 indicates the current point in time, post list cuts and additions.

Unlike the general graph, which tracks the average AFL player rating of our best 22, this graph represents the total rating of all the youth on our list, regardless of whether they have played.

While the drop from point 6 to 7 (Round 23 to Now) may appear as a decline, this is only off the back of cutting experienced youth such as Kerridge, Graham and Lamb and adding in four additional kids with 0 AFL Player Points.

Therefore, ignoring the recent drop, which will be corrected by Round 11 this season, we can see a steady increase in the total AFL Player Ratings over time. Not only does this indicate an increase in total number of kids we have on the list, but an increased output, as each one of those kids plays games and builds their AFL Player Rating basis.

With fewer draftees introduced this season, we can expect to see an impressive climb in our total AFL Player Ratings, both on a best 22 basis and a general basis as Docherty returns to football, Fisher, SPS and Curnow shoot well past 40 games, Marchbank, Kennedy, McKay and Dow approach 40 games and our draftees generally get some games under their feet.

Bring on 2019.
beautiful formatting and presentation, fbi - spoiled only by the abomination of a numerical typo which I have emboldened for you :thumbsu:
 

FlowersByIrene

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1553686339626.png


GAME 67 Rnd 1 2019 - LOSS vs Richmond (64-97)
15 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: 6 Patrick Cripps.


Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)

Patrick Cripps – 523 (+14)
Charlie Curnow – 370 (+0.6)
Nic Newman - 316 (+5.5)
Lachie Plowman - 295 (-5.9)
Zac Fisher – 288 (+13)
Jacob Weitering - 266 (+4.5)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 259 (-0.2)
Mitch McGovern - 196 (+6)
Paddy Dow – 170 (+5.4)
Harry McKay - 139 (+13)
David Cuningham - 93.2 (+4.7)
Jarrod Garlett - 59.6 (+6.6)
Will Setterfield - 5 (+5)
Michael Gibbons - 3.9 (+3.9)
Sam Walsh - 1.6 (+1.6)

Average: 199

Solid jump in our average rankings from the end of last season. Wow does Champion Data hate Sam Walsh tho, what do they know?
 
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FlowersByIrene

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So to update everyone, the graphs and AFL Player Ratings updates are back for the post-rebuild era. Now is the time to see how our rebuild matures into the premiership winning side that I know it can be. What this thread will now involve is weekly posting of the updated "total rebuild" draft above, as well as individual rankings points movements for that week.

Our off-season has led us to aquire nic Newman and Mitch McGovern, too experienced members of our youth squadron who immmediately bulk up the avergae. We also brought in more oinexpereinced players and the likes of Gibbons and Setterfield, along with draftees Walsh and Stocker will play throughout the season and build there ratings up over time.

I expect a big progression this year as our second, third and fourth year players take big strides in their development and I expect big gains from Curnow, Weitering, McKay, Cuningham, Dow, SPS and Fisher this season.

We're currently sitting at almost 200 AFL Player Ratings points per youth (of which our side is 68% youth) which is the equivalent of 15 Mitch McGovern types running around out there. I wonder where it will get to at the end of 2019 - is 250 on the cards?
 

FlowersByIrene

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1554172164933.png



GAME 68 Rnd 2 2019 - LOSS vs Port Adelaide (72-88)
15 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: 5 Patrick Cripps.


Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)

Patrick Cripps – 529 (+5)
Charlie Curnow – 365 (-5)
Nic Newman - 306 (-10)
Lachie Plowman - 294 (+2)
Zac Fisher – 290 (+2)
Jacob Weitering - 273 (+7)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 269 (+10)
Mitch McGovern - 197 (+1)
Paddy Dow – 181 (+11)
Harry McKay - 152 (+13)
Cameron Polson - 64 (+9)
Jarrod Garlett - 66 (+7)
Will Setterfield - 15 (+10)
Michael Gibbons - 12 (+9)
Sam Walsh - 11 (+10)

Average: 202

We continue to improve, up to a 202 average. Patrick Cripps is currently the most well performed player across the season on a Player Ratings perspective. Sam Walsh gets his recognition in Game 2 (despite what I felt was a slightly worse performance than Round 1) and climbs up to 11. Gibbons and Setterfield also shot up, adding a lot to the Youth's bottom end. Once these kids get to 50-70 our average will push through the clouds. What a game by Jacob Weitering by the way, settling in and he's definitely got his mojo back.
 

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FlowersByIrene

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1554716969372.png

GAME 69 Rnd 3 2019 - LOSS vs Sydney (74-93)
16 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: 8 Patrick Cripps.


Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)

Patrick Cripps – 541 (+12)
Nic Newman - 300 (-6)
Lachie Plowman - 292 (-2)
Zac Fisher – 298 (+8)
Jacob Weitering - 273 (+0)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 275 (+6)
Mitch McGovern - 194 (-3)
Paddy Dow – 186 (+5)
Caleb Marchbank - 160 (+4)
Harry McKay - 156 (+3)
Lochie O'Brien - 71.3 (+4)
Cameron Polson - 68 (+4)
Jarrod Garlett - 66 (+0)
Will Setterfield - 17 (+2)
Michael Gibbons - 15 (+3)
Sam Walsh - 28 (+17)

Average: 183


Charlie Curnow out and LoB and Marchy back in took our total youth numbers up to our highest ever with 16. However, unfortunately the loss of such a big sum from Charlie meant the average took a hit, falling from 200 down to 183. However, we saw some excellent gains from Crippa and Sammie Walsh.

Bring on a win this week against the Suns.
 

Metalcrusher

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The sad thing is, realistically we'll have done well to get out of the bottom 5. If our kids show good signs and we finish 12th in 2019, i'd consider that a decent season with a goal of top 8 in 2020.

If our oldies were even 2 years younger, and our kids since 2015 were 2 years older, we'd probably be in top 4 contention.

List management and age profiles do matter. Sadly something our previous regime had no idea about.
This is such and underrated post FTR ……. TIP (Time in Position) is what is needed, continuity and bringing the fitness base up.
 

FlowersByIrene

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FBI love your work mate, please keep at it for the year and I would suggest the base would be around 280-300 by the end of the year.
Thanks Metalcrusher, I will keep ths going all year. Any other suggestions? I don't think I have the time to go through each player's stats each week but am happy to keep the graph and week by week numbers going.

I agree with you. 280-300 is definitely achievable by the end of the year. Low end youth (i.e Setterfield, Walsh will be mid 100's by the end of the year and we shouldn't have too many debutants by the back end as long as we remain healthy.
 

bigdog43

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Having watched us have no idea how to move the ball inside 50 yesterday, it got me thinking about previous wins. When we beat Sydney, GWS and Geelong in those brilliant wins a couple of years ago, was our game plan the same as what it was yesterday?
 

gandaal

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Having watched us have no idea how to move the ball inside 50 yesterday, it got me thinking about previous wins. When we beat Sydney, GWS and Geelong in those brilliant wins a couple of years ago, was our game plan the same as what it was yesterday?
Here's another question, does anyone actually know what our game plan is?
 

SkyhorseTamer

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Here's another question, does anyone actually know what our game plan is?
Or otherwise phrased, what's our identity.

Sydney will get you if they can turn it into a scrimmage
Essendon get you on the rebound
Hawthorn get you with kick pass
Richmond get you with pressure
Bulldogs similar to Richmond, with more focus on possession.


Carlton???
 

harmesy 37

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Part of me wants to vent but I will start off with structural factors that even blind Freddy can see.

Dale Thomas- why the F is he in the team? If you want a bloke to kick the ball 10 metres sideways- he’s your man. If you want a defender who isn’t accountable/ he’s your man. That goal his opponent scored when Thomas was running away from the contest with his opponent and to the goalsquare??

Wtf? Was he there to get the best view as it sailed over his head? Try Thomas in the forward line- if it doesn’t work ressies only.

Nothing made me more sure of the fact that Carlton is a basket case than hearing Roos’ increduality as commentator as Dow kicked it in bound with a minute left to a contest.

Get a proper coach-Roos, ratten anyone. This guy they have from tasty is a dud. The club is worse than Fitzroy. I sure as hell won’t be watching them as that was by far the most painful defeat I have had as a supporter for well over 15 years.

The AFL makes money out of this club as it is trampling thru s**t. Release Cripps. Let him be on the finals stage, where he deserves to be.
 

Metalcrusher

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Part of me wants to vent but I will start off with structural factors that even blind Freddy can see.

Dale Thomas- why the F is he in the team? If you want a bloke to kick the ball 10 metres sideways- he’s your man. If you want a defender who isn’t accountable/ he’s your man. That goal his opponent scored when Thomas was running away from the contest with his opponent and to the goalsquare??

Wtf? Was he there to get the best view as it sailed over his head? Try Thomas in the forward line- if it doesn’t work ressies only.

Nothing made me more sure of the fact that Carlton is a basket case than hearing Roos’ increduality as commentator as Dow kicked it in bound with a minute left to a contest.

Get a proper coach-Roos, ratten anyone. This guy they have from tasty is a dud. The club is worse than Fitzroy. I sure as hell won’t be watching them as that was by far the most painful defeat I have had as a supporter for well over 15 years.

The AFL makes money out of this club as it is trampling thru s**t. Release Cripps. Let him be on the finals stage, where he deserves to be.

What has this got to do with the rebuild thread, since most of your tirade is aimed at the selection panel and the head coach??
 

harmesy 37

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There is no 66 game rebuild as the club is going around in circles with a coach out of his depth. As Roos said in the commentary, why was Gibbons the forward line target when they have four talks? Where was McKay and Curnow in 2nd half. None of them seem to want to be there as they don’t know where to play on the field.

Even if they got rid of the coach- how are they going to teach them forward craft before they have taken 20 steps backward and lost all confidence?

The game style is a mess. 66 game rebuild - you’re having a laugh. Rabble.
 

harmesy 37

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What has this got to do with the rebuild thread, since most of your tirade is aimed at the selection panel and the head coach??
There is no rebuild as Carlton is the carcass other clubs feed from. Who wants to play in a team that wins 2 games in a season? Cripps will leave and who could blame him. Walsh 2 years max and then Hawthorn will offer him a sweet deal. On it goes.

They’re all saying “ we stick with the coach” but what’s the point?
 

Blue and Blue

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There is no 66 game rebuild as the club is going around in circles with a coach out of his depth. As Roos said in the commentary, why was Gibbons the forward line target when they have four talks? Where was McKay and Curnow in 2nd half. None of them seem to want to be there as they don’t know where to play on the field.

Even if they got rid of the coach- how are they going to teach them forward craft before they have taken 20 steps backward and lost all confidence?

The game style is a mess. 66 game rebuild - you’re having a laugh. Rabble.
Pretty certain Harmesy would not be impressed with you using his name to spout such drivel
 
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