Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[FlowersByIrene]

Quick (well it took me a couple of hours) amalgamation of stats and things from this years efforts by the kids. Every player under 24 is listed here, as well as their age (at the end of the 2016 season) how many games they've played in their career (at the end of the 2016 season) as well as what each individual player did in each round, be they playing VFL, AFL or injured. The weekly updated row, is that players SEN Player Ratings points for each game, the three numbers at the start, middle and end of the season for each player are their rough AFL Rankings oint at each respective point of the season.

What you want to be looking at are the averages on the left hand side, the first average is SEN Points Per Games Played, this shows their performance out of 10 on a game by game basis. The second is how many AFL Rankings point each player has jumped per game over their entire career.

The SEN system is a good indicator of actual AFL performance, whilst the AFL Ranking average I have devised is a good indicator of a players potential and talent.

In Order:
SEN
P. Cripps - 7.1
S. Docherty - 6.77
S. Kerridge - 5.38
C. Byrne - 5.09
J. Weitering - 5.05
N. Graham - 4.92
B. Boekhurst - 4.71
L. Plowman - 4.68
D. Buckley - 4.27
J. Silvagni - 4.13
J. Lamb - 4.07
D. Cuningham - 4
C. Curnow - 3.67
L. Sumner - 3.25
M. Whiley - 3
K. Jaksch - 3

AFL
P. Cripps - 10.2
J. Weitering - 8.95
C. Byrne - 7.93
C. Curnow - 7.02
B. Boekhurst - 6.77
J. Weitering - 5.83
S. Docherty 5.59
N. Graham - 4.45
D. Cuningham - 4.43
D. Buckley - 4.28
M. Dick - 4.23
L. Plowman - 3.99
L. Sumner - 3.65
S. Kerridge - 3.03
K. Jaksch - 2.66
C. Smith - 2.47
J. Lamb - 2.35
M. Whiley - 1.7

 

[P_Crippy]

B I G | P I C T U R E
View attachment 282615 ​

2/6th Review | THE "Wheels Fell Off A Little Bit" PERIOD​

YOUTH (23 & Under) AS OF THE START OF THE 2016 SEASON
23: Daniel Gorringe (22 g.p) Jed Lamb (23 g.p) Mark Whiley (20 g.p) Dylan Buckley (28 g.p)
22: Sam Kerridge (27 g.p) Liam Sumner (12 g.p) Blaine Boekhurst (11 g.p) Sam Docherty (48 g.p) Andrew Gallucci (0 g.p)
21: Nicholas Graham (16 g.p) Lachie Plowman (20 g.p) Kristian Jaksch (13 g.p) Matthew Dick (6 g.p) Ciaran Byrne (1 g.p) Patrick Cripps (23 g.p)
20: Jayden Foster (0 g.p) Clem Smith (7 g.p) Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (0 g.p)
19: Billy Gowers (0 g.p) Jesse Glass-McKasker (0 g.p) Charlie Curnow (0 g.p) David Cuningham (0 g.p)
18: Jacob Weitering (0 g.p) Jack Silvagni (0 g.p) Harry McKay (0 g.p)

In the second period of Carlton's rebuild the team played 11 games, won 1 and lost 10. It was an awful end to the season. Injuries to Murphy and Byrne were critical in the seasons momentum, but cannot be attributed to the drop off in form. The side had some admirable losses (too many) against quality sides like West Coast Eagles and Geelong, but simultaneously didn't put in a proper effort against lesser ranked teams such as Brisbane and Essendon. The youth was both at fault for this and successful in spite of these circumstances. Form drop offs from players such as Kerridge and Graham can be directly attributed to a poorer performance by the club, but then simultaneously Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering and Jack Silvagni performed very well against the flow of momentum. In terms of development, I would state it was overtly positive when considered as a whole, despite the disappointing results in the win-loss column.

Below is a graphical representation of how the youth have performed over second 11 games of this rebuild, and the first 11 games of the year.

View attachment 282617

11 Games: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Lachie Plowman, Jacob Weitering
10 Games: Sam Kerridge
9 Games: Liam Sumner
8 Games: Jack Silvagni
7 Games: Dylan Buckley
6 Games: Nick Graham
5 Games: Jed Lamb
4 Games: Blaine Boekhurst
3 Games: David Cuningham, Ciaran Byrne
2 Games: Charlie Curnow
1 Games: Daniel Gorringe, Kristian Jaksch

The Carlton Football Club played 16 youth players over the course of the last 11 games of the year. Four of those players were integral parts of every game. Injuries to Ciaran Byrne and Charlie Curnow ended their seasons on low games played. Minor injuries to Kerridge, Sumner, Boekhurst and Lamb also curtailed their seasons. Regardless Carlton played on average 9.3 youth players per week, a noticeable rise on the roughly 8.6 played across the seasons first 11 games.

Below is a comparative graph of the average AFL Player Rating of our youth over the first half of the year compared to the second half, as we can see it has continued to steadily rise in the second half of the year. Only at one point, at around game 16 did our average rating dip below the highest point it had reached in the first half of the year, and our average rating for the last game of the year was in the mid 170's, 20 points higher than the mid point of the year. The trends here are positive to note, Sam Dochertty and Patrick Cripps are become elite players, Jacob Weitering has exploded as a first year player and we are getting significant growth out of the like of Lachie Plowman, Dylan Buckley, Ciaran Byrne, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Liam Sumner.

View attachment 282639
Series 1 - Games 1-11 Average AFL Player Ratings, Series 2 - Games 12-22 Average AFL Player Ratings

The average SEN Insider Ratings points accrued by our youth over the second half of the year also had a noticeable positive upward movement. Moving from averaging around 4 points per player per game up to around the five point mark. Sam Docherty who is having an All-Australian worthy year personally averages in the 7-9 mark for most of his games, as does Patrick Cripps. Projecting forward we would aim for this group of player to be playing at that level if we are to challenge for finals and eventually premierships. This metric will be interesting to follow as the rebuild progresses. We want our youth to be pushing towards an average of 6-7 points per player per game based on this statistic. Upward trends in both the first 11 and second 11 games of the year suggest the future is oneof the growth and green shoots, as our youth start to put more consistent and superior performances in on game days.

View attachment 282643

Looking back on the season, two period of significant growth in our youth is all we could have asked for. Combined with the fact we put almost 10 kids on the park every week is mission accomplished in my eyes in what we can expect of year one of a rebuild. I would have loved for Charlie Curnow and Ciaran Byrne to not get injured. And I would have liked to see more games from Harry McKay, Kristian Jaksch, David Cuningham, and Dillon Viojo-Rainbow, but overall I think year one of the rebuild is a resounding success.

What are your thoughts on the year?

Fantastic work on this thread FBI.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Can we rename this thread to Track the "110 Game" Rebuild yet?

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Expect Dylan buckley will surprise a few !!

 

[SBYM]

Cripps is so good he managed a 5 during the bye-week.

 

[JustaBattler]

Tuohy's Geelong choice is a speed bump, whilst Bwyce Gibbs' request was probably a yer early for optimal management.

Still on track to be competing for lower foinals finish in 2018.

 

[thylacine60]

If even one of the other irish boys had 2E's resilience..........

 

[FlowersByIrene]

|| POST TRADE PERIOD REVIEW ||
(Prior to Draft)
​

What we looked like at the start of the 2016 Season:

YOUTH (23 & Under) AS OF THE START OF THE 2016 SEASON
23: Daniel Gorringe (22 g.p) Jed Lamb (23 g.p) Mark Whiley (20 g.p) Dylan Buckley (28 g.p)
22: Sam Kerridge (27 g.p) Liam Sumner (12 g.p) Blaine Boekhurst (11 g.p) Sam Docherty (48 g.p) Andrew Galluchi (0 g.p)
21: Nicholas Graham (16 g.p) Lachie Plowman (20 g.p) Kristian Jaksch (13 g.p) Matthew Dick (6 g.p) Ciaran Byrne (1 g.p) Patrick Cripps (23 g.p)
20: Jayden Foster (0 g.p) Clem Smith (7 g.p) Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (0 g.p)
19: Billy Gowers (0 g.p) Jesse Glass-McKasker (0 g.p) Charlie Curnow (0 g.p) David Cunningham (0 g.p)
18: Jacob Weitering (0 g.p) Jack Silvagni (0 g.p) Harry McKay (0 g.p)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What we look like heading into the 2016 National Draft, after the first round of de-listings and the Trade Period:
Delisted: Matthew Dick, Jayden Foster, Clem Smith

YOUTH ALUMNI (Were 23 & Under at the beginning of the rebuild) AS OF THE START OF THE 2017 SEASON
24: Billie Smedts (38 gp) Daniel Gorringe (26 gp) Jed Lamb (37 gp) Mark Whiley (21 gp)
YOUTH (23 & Under) AS OF THE START OF THE 2017 SEASON
23: Dylan Buckley (38 gp) Sam Kerridge (48 gp) Liam Sumner (28 gp) Blaine Boekhurst (18 gp) Sam Docherty (70 gp) Andrew Gallucci [Rookie] (0 gp)
22: Nicholas Graham (28 gp) Lachlan Plowman (39 gp) Kristian Jaksch (14 gp) Ciaran Byrne [Rookie] (12 gp)
21: Patrick Cripps (44 gp) Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (0 gp)
20: Billy Gowers [Rookie] (0 gp) Jarrod Pickett (0 gp) Caleb Marchbank (7 gp) Jesse Glass-McCasker [Rookie] (0 gp) Charlie Curnow (6 gp)
19: David Cuningham (3 gp) Jacob Weitering (20 gp) Jack Silvagni (8 gp) Harry McKay (0gp)
18: #5 (0 gp) #25 (0 gp) #48 (0 gp) #63 (0 gp) #66 (0 gp) #70 (0 gp)

With more de-listings to go, and uncertainty as to the age of our draft picks (hopefully no Boekhurst mature agers this year) that is about as clearer picture as we can get currently. I haven't taken the time to look over exactly how many list spaces we have available but there will be mor eplayers de-listed from this group. Possible cuts include: Daniel Gorringe, Mark Whiley and Viojo-Rainbow from the main list, whilst Gowers and Gallucci will be holding their breaths on the rookie list.

But putting that to one side I think we can evaluate the trade period as largely a success. Whilst more could have been done if the Gibbs deal had have gone through, we made the most of it. As it stands. Our Youth talent (including Alumni who would have been 23 or under at the start of our rebuild) is shaping up well.

OVERALL: 31 Youth Players
ELITE BEST 22: 10 Players (Sam Docherty, Lachlan Plowman, Ciaran Byrne, Patrick Cripps, Caleb Marchbank, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering, Jack Silvagni, Harry McKay, Draft Pick #5)
BEST 22 PROSPECTS: 10 Players (Billie Smedts, Jed Lamb, Dylan Buckely, Sam Kerridge, Liam Sumner, Blaine Boekhurst, Nicholas Graham, Jarrod Pickett, David Cuningham, Draft Pick #25)
QUESTION MARKS: 4 Players (Daniel Gorringe, Mark Whiley, Kristain Jaksch, Dillon Viojo-Rainbow)
UNKNOWN: 7 Players (Andrew Gallucci, Billy Gowers, Jesse Glass-McCasker, Draft Picks #48, #63, #66 and #70)

More analysis will come as the Draft occurs, final de-listings and delisted free agent signings take place. But at the moment. Projecting for the start of 2017 I see 10 players who will be in our best 22 every week barring injury. I also see a a lot of quality talent in the "prospects" range such as Sumner, Pickett, Cuningham and our 2nd Round pick form this year who can quickly step up into our confirmed best 22.

Considering we averaged around 10 "youth" players per week this year; we look set to increase that number dramatically next season.I would not be surprised if we averaged around 12-15 youth players for next season. It's all about building the list. Getting games into these kids and developing a nucleus of strong talent before looking to supplement that talent with free agents at the end of next year (Nat Fyfe anyone?)

What a quality young side we are building.

 

[ferrisb]

FBI, you've already updated this thread post-trading? You nutbag!!!! (I mean that in the nicest possible way).

I must say though, I am disappointed. There's no charts!!!

 

[Soapy V]

its going to take a lot more than 66 games to rebuild this list. another 2-3 years minimum.

i like our tall defence with marchbank weitering plowman jaksch g-mac & rowe all options. set for the next decade. need runners to support simmo & docherty. maybe lamb sheehan or buckley but its a bit thin. byrne will be missed next year.

midfield and run around the ground are our biggest concerns. lack depth and ball use. murphy gibbs & curnow will struggle to be part of next flag tilt. cripps needs help. hope for cuningham & charlie & maybe sumner. there isnt much else. picks 5 & 25 need to be gun mids.

ruck line up is week. kruezer is average and phillips yet to be fully proven. gorringe is a back up at best.

forward line has potential but lacks options. casboult is a fill in. mckay silvagni & charlie will be good. i prefer kerridge as a forward. wright is solid. pickett will be interesting. talented.

lots of holes yet to be filled. ball use and lots of depth around the ball my biggest concern. still 3-4 years away from real challenger

 

[Tambourine]

^^^^^

Pretty good summary.

The spine is coming along nicely with the acquisition of marchbank.
No doubt mids in the next few drafts are crucial. We just have to snare at least 1 star each year and surround them with hard working mids like Cunningham/curnow.

 

[Soapy V]

i see the core of our future as silvagni cripps mckay docherty sumner plowman weitering cuningham marchbank pickett charlie & byrne. this group needs to stick together. the rest are either too old or questionable to make it. still too many question marks

 

[FlowersByIrene]

FBI, you've already updated this thread post-trading? You nutbag!!!! (I mean that in the nicest possible way).

I must say though, I am disappointed. There's no charts!!!

Trust me Ferris, once the draft happens we'll have plent of charts on our age profile, best 22 age, player ratings and draft pick spread. Its all coming soon

 

[Jeremias]

For future reference, here are the official AFL player ratings for our 'youth players' as at the conclusion of 2016.

Note I have used FBI's list of players + added all players recently drafted who obviously do not yet have a rating.

Patrick Cripps - 44
Sam Docherty - 101
Jacob Weitering - 393
Dylan Buckley - 418
Lachie Plowman - 428
Sam Kerridge - 442
Nick Graham - 469
Blaine Boekhorst - 472
Liam Sumner - 512
Ciaran Byrne - 517
Jed Lamb - 531
Jack Silvagni - 595
Daniel Gorringe - 603
Charlie Curnow - 608
Kristian Jaksch - 618
Caleb Marchbank - 619
Billie Smedts - 669
David Cuningham - 675

Unrated
Harry McKay
Jarrod Pickett
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Zac Fisher
Harrison Macreadie
Cameron Polson
Tom Williamson
Patrick Kerr
Jesse Glass-McCasker
Kym LeBois
Andrew Gallucci

It will be interesting to see the weekly movement in this list & the overall movement come the end of season 2017.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Cheers Jeremias i'm overseas till Feb 1st but have faith everyone the 66 Game tracking will continue in 2017 bigger and better than before.

I cant wait to play a few more kids each game. I reckon with Charlie, McKay, SPS, Marchbank and possibly Pickett all being regulars i'll have a lot more data to play around with

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Cheers Jeremias i'm overseas till Feb 1st but have faith everyone the 66 Game tracking will continue in 2017 bigger and better than before.

I cant wait to play a few more kids each game. I reckon with Charlie, McKay, SPS, Marchbank and possibly Pickett all being regulars i'll have a lot more data to play around with

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Yeah, I think the match committee and Bolts will be a lot more inclined to blood youth this year in the seniors. The simple fact is that we need to get games into all the kids as quickly as possible. Yes, it is a balancing act and you don't want to demoralize them early on by playing in floggings every week, but long term objectives must get priority over the short term. This year and next are truly development years, so let's develop!

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Trust me Ferris, once the draft happens we'll have plent of charts on our age profile, best 22 age, player ratings and draft pick spread. Its all coming soon

Trust me FBI says ... is it all still coming?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Trust me FBI says ... is it all still coming?

It's coming

 

[thylacine60]

so's Round 1 - giggiddy

 

[Jeremias]

so's Round 1 - griggiddy

 

[Jabba73]

Missed the target

 

[Tony Lynn 15]

Cheers Jeremias i'm overseas till Feb 1st but have faith everyone the 66 Game tracking will continue in 2017 bigger and better than before.

I cant wait to play a few more kids each game. I reckon with Charlie, McKay, SPS, Marchbank and possibly Pickett all being regulars i'll have a lot more data to play around with

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Ever the professional FBI is overseas on a study tour checking out other 66 game rebuilds in the EPL!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Youth 23 & Under By Age
(Including Youth Alumni, Were 23 & Under At the Start of the 2016 Season)​

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Youth 23 & Under By Games Played
(Including Youth Alumni, Were 23 & Under At the Start of the 2016 Season)​

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Youth 23 & Under By AFL Player Ratings
(Including Youth Alumni, Were 23 & Under At the Start of the 2016 Season)

​