Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[HereComesJuddy]

Anyone who thinks that the rebuild is progressing as well as it should is delusional.

Yes we have seen progression in some young players, but I put that down to the brilliance of these kids, rather than anything the club has done.

Yes we have cleaned out 40 players who weren’t good enough, but we’ve replaced some of them with rejects from other clubs who are just as bad.

Yes we have drafted 20 or more promising kids in 3 years, but we still have players like McKay stuck in the reserves unable to get a game after 2 years on our list.

Into the third year of a 66 game rebuild and we have 5 or so young kids that we’ve played for more than 10 games or so.

Got rid of 40 average players over 3 years and have only played 5 or so kids on a consistent basis year to year.

And where do you think we should be currently 47 games in?

 

[Accidental genius]

If lynch played for us, we would have won. 1 player... not worth throwing the coach away when we as a supporter base should understand we haven't even finished the rebuild.

Murphy had an average day. Kruezer and kennedy didn't get up. Doc and gibbs are gone.

We are playing some passengers but we still have another 20 games before the "rebuild" is complete.

We will take another top 5 pick. Probably bring in an established player through fa? (Lynch, Gaff, Dalhouse, Sloane, wines, etc) and get another 15-20 games into the kids.

If people want wins now it maybe best to jump ship because a rebuild doesn't work like that

Wishful thinking

 

[Jeremias]

AFL Player Ratings as at the conclusion of R3

Patrick Cripps - 27 (-1)
Sam Docherty - 77 (+1)
Lachie Plowman - 206 (+5)
Jacob Weitering - 227 (-2)
Charlie Curnow - 235 (+7)
Sam Kerridge - 334 (-3)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 360 (+9)
Jack Silvagni - 397 (+2)
Zac Fisher - 404 (+13)
Darcy Lang - 432 (-4)
Matthew Kennedy - 434 (+4)
Caleb Marchbank - 450 (+3)
Nick Graham - 455 (-6)
Ciaran Byrne - 463 (-8)
Jarrod Garlett - 467 (+10)
David Cuningham - 477 (+16)
Tom Williamson - 504 (-4)
Jarrod Pickett - 536 (-4)
Harrison Macreadie - 550 (-1)
Harry McKay - 598 (-5)
Paddy Dow - 602 (+10)
Cameron Polson - 638 (-3)

Another mixed bag this week for our youth, with ground being lost primarily by those currently out of the side, whilst most of those who are playing continue to make significant weekly gains.

After a couple of disappointing performances I thought it might be timely to provide a YTD update. It is important to remember that whilst these rankings do serve a purpose, they shouldn't be treated as gospel nor do they tell the full story.

I do think though that they give a good indication of where things are at with regards to our younger players and their individual growth relative to the rest of the competition. And from where I'm sitting, things continue to look very promising overall despite a couple of poor performances in a row.

YTD Movement - 2018

Patrick Cripps +3
Sam Docherty +2
Lachie Plowman +15
Jacob Weitering +3
Charlie Curnow +61
Sam Kerridge -22
Sam Petrevski-Seton +62
Jack Silvagni +29
Zac Fisher +90
Darcy Lang +1
Matthew Kennedy +31
Caleb Marchbank +48
Nick Graham +13
Ciaran Byrne +40
Jarrod Garlett +8
David Cuningham +69
Tom Williamson +44
Jarrod Pickett +46
Harrison Macreadie +54
Harry McKay +56
Paddy Dow +10
Cameron Polson +66

At an individual level we've seen improvement all-round except for Kerridge, whose decline is not a surprise nor is it of any particular concern.

I don't read much into the large jumps made by most towards the bottom of that list as that's where things appear to be most volatile, but the significant rise in rankings from Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Marchbank and Cuningham is particularly pleasing.

Fisher deserves particular recognition given in just three weeks he has nearly matched his improvement over the entirety of last season - in 2017 he rose 128 places, and he's already risen 90 in 2018.

 

[Mr_Plow]

DC has been really solid since returning to the team.

Hoping he maintains his consistency and plays the remainder of the season, would be huge for his development and his attributes are quite unique to our side.

He's probably not going to be a permanent fixture in the midfield for another couple of years (23-25), if ever, but he can play a significant role from HB/wing.

 

[Jeremias]

Anyone who thinks that the rebuild is progressing as well as it should is delusional.

Why - because we've put in a couple of disappointing performances in a row?

I expected at least one win from our past two games, but it's naive to suggest that things are not going as well as they should on the back of those performances.

We're rebuilding, and I would suggest it is better to judge us on the entire body of work rather than week by week. It is perfectly normal for rebuilding sides to suffer hiccups along the way.

Yes we have seen progression in some young players, but I put that down to the brilliance of these kids, rather than anything the club has done.

I don't think it's reasonable to put that solely on the shoulders of the kids, and not acknowledge the role the club had to play in it.

The reality is both will have contributed to the progress made.

Yes we have cleaned out 40 players who weren’t good enough, but we’ve replaced some of them with rejects from other clubs who are just as bad.

Sure, but that's hardly unusual and it is certainly not exclusive to our rebuild.

Give me one example of a rebuilding club that hasn't done exactly the same thing. Just one is all I ask.

Hint: don't bother. It's not possible to find an example because every single rebuilding club in the history of the competition has brought in below average footballers along the way.

It's impossible to avoid doing so.

Yes we have drafted 20 or more promising kids in 3 years, but we still have players like McKay stuck in the reserves unable to get a game after 2 years on our list.

McKay is 20 years old and we're 3 games into the season.

Come back and reassess at the end of the year, I'm pretty confident he'll feature at senior level this season.

Into the third year of a 66 game rebuild and we have 5 or so young kids that we’ve played for more than 10 games or so.

Got rid of 40 average players over 3 years and have only played 5 or so kids on a consistent basis year to year.

Sorry, but this is categorically false.

In every year of the rebuild we've given more of our youth significant opportunities at senior level.

2016
Docherty - 22
Cripps - 21
Weitering - 20
Plowman - 19
Byrne - 11
Silvagni - 8
Curnow - 6
Cuningham - 3

2017
Docherty - 22
Weitering - 22
Plowman - 21
Curnow - 21
Silvagni - 20
SPS - 20
Fisher - 17
Marchbank - 16
Williamson - 15
Cripps - 15
Pickett - 10
Macreadie - 8
Cuningham - 8
Byrne - 3
McKay - 2
Polson - 1

2018
Weitering - 3
Dow - 3
Marchbank - 3
Plowman - 3
Garlett - 3
SPS - 3
Fisher - 3
Curnow - 3
Cripps - 3
Polson - 2
Kennedy - 2
Byrne - 2
Cuningham - 2
Silvagni - 1

2017 was a huge improvement on 2016, and 2018 looms as another significant step in the right direction given we've got a few on the sidelines who will no doubt feature before the end of the season.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22, along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes, average youth AFL Player Rating*, and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points**
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players in current 22.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players in current 22.


GAME 47 Rnd 3 - LOSS vs Collingwood (76-100)
14 Youth Players
Coaches Votes:
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 489.4 (-0.9),
Lachlan Plowman - 311.6 (+1.8),
Jacob Weitering - 293.1 (-3.2),
Charlie Curnow - 275.2 (+8),
Aaron Mullet - 239.3 (-1.1)
Samo Petrevski-Seton - 185.5 (+7.5),
Jed Lamb - 137.6 (+4),
Matthew Kennedy - 138 (+5.9)
Zac Fisher - 148.6 (+13.2),
Caleb Marchbank - 118.6 (+8.2)
David Cuningham - 89.4 (+11.3)
Jarrod Garlett - 97.5 (+6.8),
Paddy Dow - 13.7 (+5.2),
Cameron Polson - 2.6 (+0.7)

Average: 183.5

Game 47 of a 66 game rebuild… just over two thirds of the way into our complete list overall. And we performed like this against the arch enemy. The score was, in actual fat, flattering. Late minute goals, which while admittedly showing we didn’t give up, were consolation prizes from a poor day at the carnival. Charlie Curnow had to be the standout. He’s been phenomenal to start the season and tried to single handedly drag us back into the game in the fourth quarter. He kicked two goals and was involved in 7 of our scores. He used his lethal boot to the tune of 516 metres gained from 20 disposals. He took 9 marks, using his ability to impose himself on the game on a wing as a link up player. He had 5 inside 50’s and shows flashes of brilliance to fend off players, gain separation and dispose of the footy in otherwise impossible situations. Patrick Cripps had 26 disposals at 73% efficiency, including 13 contested possession in a night where he was relatively contained. He gave away 4 free kicks in moments where he could have impacted the game. His disposal continues to improve and I now consider his laser like delivery to be one of the best in the team. He used his disposal four times going inside 50 but unfortunately was not rewarded with a goal assist. He did what Patrick Cripps does to pick up 5 clearances for the match. I was very impressed with David Cuningham’s game, despite only collecting 14 touches he is an elite user of the ball moving it at 93% efficiency and no clangers. He took 4 marks and had 2 1%ers in a composed performance off of half back. Zac Fisher has progressed more than anyone could have predicted this season. Zac only managed 16 disposals but makes a huge impact to the team with 6 tackles when he’s off the ball. Jarrod Garlett tackled hard, laying 5 for the night and collecting 12 possessions. He went inside 50 five times and kicked a goal. Paddy Dow seemed to take a big step this week. While his disposal was still poor at times, including one shank to Charlie Curnow which will count as an effective possession but Paddy himself was not happy with his effort. Dow really impacted the match in the third quarter and should push on next week. He had 15 touches, four marks, two tackles and three inside 50’s. Matthew Kennedy’s return was positive, albeit not prolific, he had 13 touches at 84% efficiency, 3 clearances and 5 tackles. Samo Petrevski-Seton only found the ball 15 times, down on his usual output. He didn’t impact the contest with only 1 clearance and 2 tackles. Lachie Plowman had it 13 times at his usual elite disposal efficiency of 93%. He had 4 1%ers and 4 marks in a tough night for our defenders. Jacob Weitering started the match down on confidence, with Collingwood getting into him but seemed to find something in the back half to pick up a couple of intercept marks and look more like his usual self. He has 11 touches but gave away a handful of free kicks in unfortunate circumstances. He had 6 1%ers. Caleb Marchbank suffered an unfortunate injury. After looking so poised through our first two rounds Caleb suffered an ankle injury, only managing 7 disposals (still very impressive for his limited time on ground). Aaron Mullett, the less said the better really. After putting in an impressive game last week with a high number of contested possessions, Mullet failed to impact the game at all, finishing with 6 disposals, 3 marks and 4 rebound 50’s. For an alleged experienced body, he needs to impact the contest more. Jed Lamb, its hard to see the utility in his performance, a defensive forward who only laid 1 tackle and only had 2 inside 50’s and no goals. A spot in the 2’s is surely beckoning. Cameron Polson, just isn’t up to the tempo of AFL football, only managing 5 touches and barely troubling the stat keepers otherwise.

 

[WFGodot]

AFL Player Ratings as at the conclusion of R3

Patrick Cripps - 27 (-1)
Sam Docherty - 77 (+1)
Lachie Plowman - 206 (+5)
Jacob Weitering - 227 (-2)
Charlie Curnow - 235 (+7)
Sam Kerridge - 334 (-3)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 360 (+9)
Jack Silvagni - 397 (+2)
Zac Fisher - 404 (+13)
Darcy Lang - 432 (-4)
Matthew Kennedy - 434 (+4)
Caleb Marchbank - 450 (+3)
Nick Graham - 455 (-6)
Ciaran Byrne - 463 (-8)
Jarrod Garlett - 467 (+10)
David Cuningham - 477 (+16)
Tom Williamson - 504 (-4)
Jarrod Pickett - 536 (-4)
Harrison Macreadie - 550 (-1)
Harry McKay - 598 (-5)
Paddy Dow - 602 (+10)
Cameron Polson - 638 (-3)

Another mixed bag this week for our youth, with ground being lost primarily by those currently out of the side, whilst most of those who are playing continue to make significant weekly gains.

After a couple of disappointing performances I thought it might be timely to provide a YTD update. It is important to remember that whilst these rankings do serve a purpose, they shouldn't be treated as gospel nor do they tell the full story.

I do think though that they give a good indication of where things are at with regards to our younger players and their individual growth relative to the rest of the competition. And from where I'm sitting, things continue to look very promising overall despite a couple of poor performances in a row.

YTD Movement - 2018

Patrick Cripps +3
Sam Docherty +2
Lachie Plowman +15
Jacob Weitering +3
Charlie Curnow +61
Sam Kerridge -22
Sam Petrevski-Seton +62
Jack Silvagni +29
Zac Fisher +90
Darcy Lang +1
Matthew Kennedy +31
Caleb Marchbank +48
Nick Graham +13
Ciaran Byrne +40
Jarrod Garlett +8
David Cuningham +69
Tom Williamson +44
Jarrod Pickett +46
Harrison Macreadie +54
Harry McKay +56
Paddy Dow +10
Cameron Polson +66

At an individual level we've seen improvement all-round except for Kerridge, whose decline is not a surprise nor is it of any particular concern.

I don't read much into the large jumps made by most towards the bottom of that list as that's where things appear to be most volatile, but the significant rise in rankings from Curnow, SPS, Fisher, Marchbank and Cuningham is particularly pleasing.

Fisher deserves particular recognition given in just three weeks he has nearly matched his improvement over the entirety of last season - in 2017 he rose 128 places, and he's already risen 90 in 2018.

To be fair I am not overly familiar with the criteria and methodology behind the rankings above so I started to read the explanation on the AFL website but got bored... as acknowledged above, off a small base there is volatility. I accept that ranking shifts off small sample sizes can appear deceptive.

For example, how is it possible that Sam Docherty could improve Year To Date (YTD) if he blew out a knee in November 2017 after an All Australian Season. (Year on Year 2016/2017 maybe with the carryover effect of points accrued)
As for Harry McKay, he has played a grand total of 2 games in 2017, 0 in 2016 yet has jumped 56 in 2018 despite playing shockers in JLT and Northern Blues practice games...

Then I actually looked up H McKay... Ranking 598 - Down - 15.7
http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/overall-standings#page/15

Am I misinterpreting the data. Are you saying that he jumped 56 places Year on Year because of those 2 games in 2017 when other players of the same age around him played no games, so a jump by default just for being picked. Thats a little like winning the tallest midget award.

Either way, I feel we've gone substantially backwards from mid 2017.
1 win from 13 - average losing margin 6 goals.

Its still early days for season 2018 - best to throw as many games into our youth as we can without shattering them or unduly exposing them.

We've got some good kids and hopefully this year we'll get 3-4 more. we need a high strike rate and FA to go our way. Whichever methodology is used to justify or condemn our rebuild the truth is that our performances are substandard.

Final point, I am yet to be convinced of our coaching smarts on match day and/or if we get the maximum out of the players we pick. Player development is a whole other conversation. Poor Weitering, are we trying to destroy his confidence?

*****Statistics are a bit like a drunk man and a lamp post - more for leaning on than illumination. *****

 

[Neese]

Anyone who thinks that the rebuild is progressing as well as it should is delusional.

Yes we have seen progression in some young players, but I put that down to the brilliance of these kids, rather than anything the club has done.

Yes we have cleaned out 40 players who weren’t good enough, but we’ve replaced some of them with rejects from other clubs who are just as bad.

Yes we have drafted 20 or more promising kids in 3 years, but we still have players like McKay stuck in the reserves unable to get a game after 2 years on our list.

Into the third year of a 66 game rebuild and we have 5 or so young kids that we’ve played for more than 10 games or so.

Got rid of 40 average players over 3 years and have only played 5 or so kids on a consistent basis year to year.

Far out you are a negative nelly

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Why - because we've put in a couple of disappointing performances in a row?

I expected at least one win from our past two games, but it's naive to suggest that things are not going as well as they should on the back of those performances.

We're rebuilding, and I would suggest it is better to judge us on the entire body of work rather than week by week. It is perfectly normal for rebuilding sides to suffer hiccups along the way.



I don't think it's reasonable to put that solely on the shoulders of the kids, and not acknowledge the role the club had to play in it.

The reality is both will have contributed to the progress made.



Sure, but that's hardly unusual and it is certainly not exclusive to our rebuild.

Give me one example of a rebuilding club that hasn't done exactly the same thing. Just one is all I ask.

Hint: don't bother. It's not possible to find an example because every single rebuilding club in the history of the competition has brought in below average footballers along the way.

It's impossible to avoid doing so.



McKay is 20 years old and we're 3 games into the season.

Come back and reassess at the end of the year, I'm pretty confident he'll feature at senior level this season.



Sorry, but this is categorically false.

In every year of the rebuild we've given more of our youth significant opportunities at senior level.

2016
Docherty - 22
Cripps - 21
Weitering - 20
Plowman - 19
Byrne - 11
Silvagni - 8
Curnow - 6
Cuningham - 3

2017
Docherty - 22
Weitering - 22
Plowman - 21
Curnow - 21
Silvagni - 20
SPS - 20
Fisher - 17
Marchbank - 16
Williamson - 15
Cripps - 15
Pickett - 10
Macreadie - 8
Cuningham - 8
Byrne - 3
McKay - 2
Polson - 1

2018
Weitering - 3
Dow - 3
Marchbank - 3
Plowman - 3
Garlett - 3
SPS - 3
Fisher - 3
Curnow - 3
Cripps - 3
Polson - 2
Kennedy - 2
Byrne - 2
Cuningham - 2
Silvagni - 1

2017 was a huge improvement on 2016, and 2018 looms as another significant step in the right direction given we've got a few on the sidelines who will no doubt feature before the end of the season.

Big J with the

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

For example, how is it possible that Sam Docherty could improve Year To Date (YTD) if he blew out a knee in November 2017 after an All Australian Season. (Year on Year 2016/2017 maybe with the carryover effect of points accrued)

The rankings points are worked out over the last 40 games. He hasn’t missed 40 games. Plus even if his points stay the same, his ranking can and will change as players around him gain or lose points.

 

[Jeremias]

Big J with the

Don't get me wrong - supporters have every right to be disappointed. I've been incredibly disappointed by our performances over the past couple of weeks.

I just think it's important we keep things in perspective, we're rebuilding and these sorts of results are not unusual for a rebuilding side.

The sky is not falling, and what we've seen thus far this year doesn't mean the rebuild is failing, nor should there be any knee-jerk reactions from the club as a result.

The reality is it's going to take time to get to where we want to be, and the club is fully committed and in for the long haul. There will be hiccups along the way but there will be plenty of good times also.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Don't get me wrong - supporters have every right to be disappointed. I've been incredibly disappointed by our performances over the past couple of weeks.

I just think it's important we keep things in perspective, we're rebuilding and these sorts of results are not unusual for a rebuilding side.

The sky is not falling, and what we've seen thus far this year doesn't mean the rebuild is failing, nor should there be any knee-jerk reactions from the club as a result.

The reality is it's going to take time to get to where we want to be, and the club is fully committed and in for the long haul. There will be hiccups along the way but there will be plenty of good times also.

I concur.

 

[BluStreak]

I concur.

I agree with your concurrence.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I concur.

I agree with your concurrence.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

The rankings points are worked out over the last 40 games. He hasn’t missed 40 games. Plus even if his points stay the same, his ranking can and will change as players around him gain or lose points.

I asked AFL Player Ratings about this a while ago. They replied with this...

"Overall Standings are based on most recent 40 games within a two year period. If you play less than 40 you start to drop."

"eg. if Ibbotson misses this week he loses 10% of game 40 (0.8 points) If he plays, games 31-40 all lose 10%, for a breakeven of 10.9 points."

That's why Murphy dropped 100+ spots when he injured his ankle.

 

[Cripps17]

Icon...

There's a picture for that too...

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

There's a picture for that too...

Missed opportunity... or sneaky edit.




Sneaky edit it is

 

[Dramoth]

And where do you think we should be currently 47 games in?

Obviously pushing for a premiership this year!

 

[Jeremias]

AFL Player Ratings as at the conclusion of R4

Patrick Cripps - 29 (-2)
Sam Docherty - 75 (+2)
Lachie Plowman - 212 (-6)
Jacob Weitering - 232 (-5)
Charlie Curnow - 238 (-3)
Sam Kerridge - 353 (-19)
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 357 (+3)
Jack Silvagni - 397
Zac Fisher - 399 (+5)
Matthew Kennedy - 423 (+11)
Darcy Lang - 439 (-7)
Caleb Marchbank - 450
Nick Graham - 455
Jarrod Garlett - 459 (+8)
Ciaran Byrne - 473 (-10)
David Cuningham - 477
Tom Williamson - 507 (-3)
Jarrod Pickett - 539 (-3)
Harrison Macreadie - 554 (-4)
Paddy Dow - 594 (+8)
Harry McKay - 607 (-9)
Lochie O'Brien - 632
Cameron Polson - 641 (-3)

Not a lot to get excited about here this week unfortunately.

A really poor performance vs North and we've seen the effects here, with very few of our younger players climbing the rankings.

Understand that many have lost faith but I genuinely believe the rebuild is still on the right track. We hit a massive speed bump on the weekend but it's important we stay the course and don't allow for any knee-jerk reactions to derail us from the path we're on.

We've got so much young talent at the club, but very clearly a dearth of quality experience to lead the way. It is absolutely crucial we continue to get as many games as is reasonably possible into this young core, they are the ones who will take us forward, they are the ones who will form the nucleus of our next strong side.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Doc amongst our best on the weekend. +2 love it

 

[The Flying Doormat]

18 games to go...

 

[HereComesJuddy]

18 games to go...

Then its games and more games into the kids

 

[Doro]

As a bit of a timeline, Geelong did its 66 game rebuild in the 99-01 drafts. Didn't make finals until 2004. I'm not sure '66 game' meant contenders by the end of the 66 games, rather the bulk of the list turnover was happening during that time. The alternative I guess was more mid table hovering, with an occasional elimination final win.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Anyone who thinks that the rebuild is progressing as well as it should is delusional.

Yes we have seen progression in some young players, but I put that down to the brilliance of these kids, rather than anything the club has done.

Yes we have cleaned out 40 players who weren’t good enough, but we’ve replaced some of them with rejects from other clubs who are just as bad.

Yes we have drafted 20 or more promising kids in 3 years, but we still have players like McKay stuck in the reserves unable to get a game after 2 years on our list.

Into the third year of a 66 game rebuild and we have 5 or so young kids that we’ve played for more than 10 games or so.

Got rid of 40 average players over 3 years and have only played 5 or so kids on a consistent basis year to year.

I don't see that the club had a choice but to take some players from other clubs.
A club can draft 5 or 6 players maximum per year. Carlton did that
Players like O'shea, Mullet, Sumner cost us nothing
The root cause of our problem is there are signs that
A) some players are already a bust in terms of ever being B grade footballers. I rank Silvagni and Weitering in that category. I am not convinced they will make it based on a lack of speed, strength.
B) Player Development - SPS no run and carry/doesn't break the lines/ has he improved since last year. Mckay, Cunningham, Macreadie? Who is better than last year?
IF anything the shining lights are players from other clubs Marchbank/Plowman/Wright

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I don't see that the club had a choice but to take some players from other clubs.
A club can draft 5 or 6 players maximum per year. Carlton did that
Players like O'shea, Mullet, Sumner cost us nothing
The root cause of our problem is there are signs that
A) some players are already a bust in terms of ever being B grade footballers. I rank Silvagni and Weitering in that category. I am not convinced they will make it based on a lack of speed, strength.
B) Player Development - SPS no run and carry/doesn't break the lines/ has he improved since last year. Mckay, Cunningham, Macreadie? Who is better than last year?
IF anything the shining lights are players from other clubs Marchbank/Plowman/Wright

Strange... weits is struggling. He’s no bust. Going through it a bit atm. Still very very young for a kpd....

In fact your assessment is far too black and white. They’ve all been developing. It’s not linear and including Macreadie....? Guy shouldn’t even have played Afl footy last year and has been injured this year. How can you possibly know he hasn’t improved? Issue isn’t with the young talent at all. Issue is with patience of the club, media and fans.