I reckon you'll have a sneaky look
Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild
- Thread starter FlowersByIrene
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Beyond the 66 game rebuild is another 66 game rebuild
So the coach is going well?
Game style -one dimensional.
They never attack thru corridor- only boundary line. No overlap running by anyone other than Cripps. No forward structure. Same as last year. Loss-loss-loss-loss ... any guesses on next match result?
Guessing's for losers
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GAME 70 Rnd 4 2019 - LOSS vs Gold Coast (57-59)
16 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: 10 Patrick Cripps, 5 Sam Walsh
Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)
Patrick Cripps – 552 (+11)
Charlie Curnow - 366 (+1)
Nic Newman - 308 (+8)
Lachie Plowman - 288 (-4)
Zac Fisher – 300 (+2)
Jacob Weitering - 285 (+11)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 276 (+1)
Mitch McGovern - 206 (+12)
Paddy Dow – 198 (+12)
Caleb Marchbank - 161 (+1)
Harry McKay - 156 (+1)
Lochie O'Brien - 76 (+4)
Will Setterfield - 16 (-1)
Michael Gibbons - 17 (+2)
Sam Walsh - 44 (+17)
Average: 216
Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps are amazing, absolutely amazing. AFL Player Ratings loved Paddy Dow's game. Weitering and McGovern also had great games on these ratings.
Highest ever average Player Rating we've ever had.
Thanks for the good work...its really good to see it like that..especially when it reinforces what we keep hoping is happening......
No s**t the rating is going up, isn't it always going to with players coming off a base of zero? Seems like an odd exercise.
Can't believe it was ever called a 66 game rebuild. Does the rebuild end when we get all the players we want on our list or does it end when those players mature and we start playing good football?
I would go with the latter.
Crunch the numbers...
In 2015 a rebuild will mean we replace all but 3 players. Docherty, Cripps and Jones.
That means that the task is to find 37 players of elite to good quality.
Those players will need to be allowed to mature which happens at around 22-24 years of age.
No priority picks or special compensation. Starting from a low base so not too many players to trade out so we're limited and trading out is going to hurt. No expendable players to trade.
We get 3 good draft picks per season. Without being crafty and getting package deals with our trades that means it would take 12 years to find 37 good players. 6 years to find 22. Plus 3 or 4 years for them to mature.
With aggressive trading and drafting and big list turnovers we can half that to 6 or 7 years. So 3 or 4 to find 22. Plus their development time frame of 3-4 years.
Crunch the numbers people. We are actually on track. No one wants to hear about 6 or 7 year rebuilds but this is the reality of it.
We are 4 years into a 6 or 7 year rebuild where we will be spending most of it down the bottom.
That will only change when we have our full list of players and most of them are in that 22 or 23-28 year old age bracket.
2015 - Rebuild begins, Clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on talls
2016 - clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on mids and flankers
2017 - Clean out focus on mids and a Ruck/forward etc
2018 - Rock bottom and heavy recruitment. Average losing margin just under 50. Focus on mids, some slightly more mature players and plugging holes
2019 - development year. Average losing margin halved. Focus on forwards and elite mids will look for mature players and build depth. 2015 draftees start to hit maturity. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, Silvagni.
2020 - Competitive year - Focus on filling the gaps mature players early and raw talent late. 2016 draftees start to hit maturity. SPS, Setterfield, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, .
2021 - Push for finals - Focus on an elite players and we fill holes with elite talent. 2017 Draftees begin to mature. Dow, O'Brien, DeKoning, Schumacher.
2022 - peak - Most players in the 23-28 year age gap. 2018 draftees hit maturity. Walsh, Stocker, O'Dwyer, Silvagni. Holes are filled, list is mature and very talented from years of patience and taking the long road. We present a very complete side with very few holes or weaknesses.
I would hope that this 66 game rebuild crap is something that has been spewed out to the fans and not something that is generally believed internally.
Crunch the numbers, we are all getting ahead of ourselves, this is a development year, if you don't like it then complain to the AFL that we haven't been resourced with enough draft picks. You put the priority pick into this equation and remove the two new teams and it takes a year or maybe even two off our rebuild time frame but this is the age we live in, this is Gil's AFL where it takes f***ing forever to build a team from scratch.
On a positive note, when we get to mid table things will mover very very fast. Our most important thing is player retention. I still believe if we keep our staff and our players and just keep adding to this then we will become a really really strong side when the rebuild is complete and the players mature.
I guess there would be a meltdown if the club came out and said it's going to be a 7 year rebuild and we will be down the bottom for most of it. In one way it would have been good to stick it to the AFL and their system but in another way it would have been disastrous for attendances, fan following, membership, recruitment and player retention.
This is not the first 7 year rebuild. Richmond did one. The big difference is where we are coming from is rock bottom and other teams usually start it from around mid table. Plus there are priority picks etc involved in other clubs rebuilds.
It's a harsh reality for us to get our heads around but this is the reality. None of us want to hear we have a couple more years to wait. We all want things to come on quicker but the numbers don't lie.
For what it's worth I wouldn't take too much notice of other developing clubs who are better than us or appear ahead of us like Brisbane or St Kilda. It's all about where we finish up and I am confident that when we finish we are a good chance to finish better. It's a long distance race and we have not sprinted at the start.
I would go with the latter.
Crunch the numbers...
In 2015 a rebuild will mean we replace all but 3 players. Docherty, Cripps and Jones.
That means that the task is to find 37 players of elite to good quality.
Those players will need to be allowed to mature which happens at around 22-24 years of age.
No priority picks or special compensation. Starting from a low base so not too many players to trade out so we're limited and trading out is going to hurt. No expendable players to trade.
We get 3 good draft picks per season. Without being crafty and getting package deals with our trades that means it would take 12 years to find 37 good players. 6 years to find 22. Plus 3 or 4 years for them to mature.
With aggressive trading and drafting and big list turnovers we can half that to 6 or 7 years. So 3 or 4 to find 22. Plus their development time frame of 3-4 years.
Crunch the numbers people. We are actually on track. No one wants to hear about 6 or 7 year rebuilds but this is the reality of it.
We are 4 years into a 6 or 7 year rebuild where we will be spending most of it down the bottom.
That will only change when we have our full list of players and most of them are in that 22 or 23-28 year old age bracket.
2015 - Rebuild begins, Clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on talls
2016 - clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on mids and flankers
2017 - Clean out focus on mids and a Ruck/forward etc
2018 - Rock bottom and heavy recruitment. Average losing margin just under 50. Focus on mids, some slightly more mature players and plugging holes
2019 - development year. Average losing margin halved. Focus on forwards and elite mids will look for mature players and build depth. 2015 draftees start to hit maturity. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, Silvagni.
2020 - Competitive year - Focus on filling the gaps mature players early and raw talent late. 2016 draftees start to hit maturity. SPS, Setterfield, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, .
2021 - Push for finals - Focus on an elite players and we fill holes with elite talent. 2017 Draftees begin to mature. Dow, O'Brien, DeKoning, Schumacher.
2022 - peak - Most players in the 23-28 year age gap. 2018 draftees hit maturity. Walsh, Stocker, O'Dwyer, Silvagni. Holes are filled, list is mature and very talented from years of patience and taking the long road. We present a very complete side with very few holes or weaknesses.
I would hope that this 66 game rebuild crap is something that has been spewed out to the fans and not something that is generally believed internally.
Crunch the numbers, we are all getting ahead of ourselves, this is a development year, if you don't like it then complain to the AFL that we haven't been resourced with enough draft picks. You put the priority pick into this equation and remove the two new teams and it takes a year or maybe even two off our rebuild time frame but this is the age we live in, this is Gil's AFL where it takes f***ing forever to build a team from scratch.
On a positive note, when we get to mid table things will mover very very fast. Our most important thing is player retention. I still believe if we keep our staff and our players and just keep adding to this then we will become a really really strong side when the rebuild is complete and the players mature.
I guess there would be a meltdown if the club came out and said it's going to be a 7 year rebuild and we will be down the bottom for most of it. In one way it would have been good to stick it to the AFL and their system but in another way it would have been disastrous for attendances, fan following, membership, recruitment and player retention.
This is not the first 7 year rebuild. Richmond did one. The big difference is where we are coming from is rock bottom and other teams usually start it from around mid table. Plus there are priority picks etc involved in other clubs rebuilds.
It's a harsh reality for us to get our heads around but this is the reality. None of us want to hear we have a couple more years to wait. We all want things to come on quicker but the numbers don't lie.
For what it's worth I wouldn't take too much notice of other developing clubs who are better than us or appear ahead of us like Brisbane or St Kilda. It's all about where we finish up and I am confident that when we finish we are a good chance to finish better. It's a long distance race and we have not sprinted at the start.
The reality is we are selecting a side that is completely unbalanced and out of step with modern football. This is due to a combination or injuries, list and coaching philosophy.
Ruckman plus Mckay, Curnow and Gov is all we can handle fwd of centre. All other players must be runners, so this leaves no room for Caz or Jack.
In the back half we need to remove one of Marchbank and/or Ploughman and add a runner or two.
His game style cannot and will not work until we get more runners, average teams which have intensity and speed can win, the slow top heavy sides right now are a mess, such as crows and blues.
Ruckman plus Mckay, Curnow and Gov is all we can handle fwd of centre. All other players must be runners, so this leaves no room for Caz or Jack.
In the back half we need to remove one of Marchbank and/or Ploughman and add a runner or two.
His game style cannot and will not work until we get more runners, average teams which have intensity and speed can win, the slow top heavy sides right now are a mess, such as crows and blues.
Another quality post gbatman, thank you for giving me perspective during this roughest of patches for our beloved Blues.
On the topic of priority picks, where is our version of Melbourne's support when they publically embarked on a full rebuild? A pipe dream for Carlton I guess. The hate is strong in AFL circles.
Hence why they can all get absolutely ****ed. SOS and the club will do it, with or without them.
Jabba73
Hall of Famer
The 66 games was always about the list rebuild.
Now we consolidate and mature.
Then we challenge
Now we consolidate and mature.
Then we challenge
TooBlue14
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They actually didn’t include Cripps whose 4 game average is off the charts. Immeasurable. 25.1. He’s ranked 1st not Whitfield.
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I think I read somewhere Melbourne only has 5 players left from their list in 2013.
Geelong only have something like 5 best 22 players atm who were on their list in 2015.
Things can change a lot quicker than what we look like we are currently doing. I think we have chosen the safer/easier option of bringing in top end talent. It’ll take longer but if we have done it right we should see the benifits in the future but I don’t think it is as simple as us not having any other options
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It's career best form over 4 weeks. Cripps has actually had better stretches of 4 weeks. So he can't be included.
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If you understood the ratings you might have a better grasp. While yes, first year player swill generally go up because they're playing off of a base of zero, that isn't the case for everyone. Look at our side this week, where out biggest improvers Cripps, Newman, Weitering, McGovern, Dow and Walsh. Appart from Dow and Walsh, all of those players have played more than 40 games and their large rises are evident in the substantial steps they are taking forward. Additionally, you can look to the likes of Setterfield who is crawling along and see that improvement is needed, or how Plowman has hovered around 300 for the last two years, if he wants to become elite he needs to take a step, it isn't just the case of more games equals more points, it's players taking their game to the next level equals more points on the AFL Ratings system and until such time as more of our players take those steps, our side will continue to build.
Dow seeing a substantial leap after that game says it all...
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You're welcome to not read the thread.
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TooBlue14
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I wonder how close Walsh is off the wing and jones in the back half.
TooBlue14
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Jones should take Aliir Aliirs spot by year’s end.
The other option would be to break the bank, chase stars and retain everyone who could play. That would be the easy quick fix solution. That doesn't fix the cultural problems and when we get to being a top side we would be limited, stagnate around the middle then bottom out anyway the same as the last rebuild.
SO it's not the only way but it's the best way.
One thing is for sure by going down the long road and being patient, when we mature and we arrive. We will have a really deep talent pool and a lot of quality through the 22 and we will have a side that not only plays finals but should be a realistic premiership chance.
the thing about rebuilding you only really start to rise when you get close to the peak period, it's not a steady increase or steady improvement, you more or less stay the same quality until the jobs is done and then the jump happens, especially when there are a lot of young players involved.
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I agree with most of that except that we shouldn’t expect to see steady improvement. That’s the difference between Melbourne’s failed rebuild and their successful one. They just presumed all their talented kids would come on and they would explode up the ladder. I think SOS and crew see it that way too hence why we went all out for Shiel.
Unless we see a huge turnaround in form this season my money would be on us going all out again trying to attract a big name to start to drive improvement in our group.
I don’t think that has anything to do with a lack of patience but It could just be a better way to develop players.
Cripps Data Analysis
FWIW - I love FBI's charts, but I'd like to add that Cripps is better than even what the ratings currently say. This is because he only has 37 eligible games (out of 40) to be aggregated on.
He ended 2017 missing the last 7 rounds. The AFL ratings takes your most recent 40 games from the previous 44 games (to account for minor injuries).
This means that Cripps is currently getting rated on:
2017 (11 games out of a possible 18)
Rds 5-23
2018 (22 games)
Rds 1-22
2019 (4 games)
Rds 1-4
What does this mean? Well, if Cripps manages to play every game, he will actually have big jumps in rounds 16, 17 and 18 this year. This is because he will finally be rated on 38, 39 and 40 games, to be fairly compared to the rest.
If we pro-rata his 37 game average out to 40 games, he'd actually be on 595.7, clear 3rd on the AFL player ratings and only behind Dusty and Danger. Should he hit a purple patch like he's currently in, that would bring him neck and neck with Dangerfield for no.1 spot.
TLDR: We are watching a special player here guys. Over the past 2 seasons, he is the best or second best player in the whole game. And he's only just now entering his prime. Holy s**t.
EDIT: I just did a bit more research and apparently only the last 31 games are given full weighting, with games 32 to 40 weighted less via a sliding scale, with game 40 weighted 5%. What does this mean? Cripps will actually reach a fairer rating even sooner than we thought. By the end of round 9, all of his "0 games" will be weighted less, and each week from there he'll be steadily improving until the peak of round 18.
These assessment are on the basis that Cripps merely continues to perform at the same level he has over the past 2 years. I.e. even if he doesn't actually improve from his average of last 2 years, his ratings will improve because of Maths alone. If he continues to improve his output on top of that, his ratings will improve even further.
FWIW - I love FBI's charts, but I'd like to add that Cripps is better than even what the ratings currently say. This is because he only has 37 eligible games (out of 40) to be aggregated on.
He ended 2017 missing the last 7 rounds. The AFL ratings takes your most recent 40 games from the previous 44 games (to account for minor injuries).
This means that Cripps is currently getting rated on:
2017 (11 games out of a possible 18)
Rds 5-23
2018 (22 games)
Rds 1-22
2019 (4 games)
Rds 1-4
What does this mean? Well, if Cripps manages to play every game, he will actually have big jumps in rounds 16, 17 and 18 this year. This is because he will finally be rated on 38, 39 and 40 games, to be fairly compared to the rest.
If we pro-rata his 37 game average out to 40 games, he'd actually be on 595.7, clear 3rd on the AFL player ratings and only behind Dusty and Danger. Should he hit a purple patch like he's currently in, that would bring him neck and neck with Dangerfield for no.1 spot.
TLDR: We are watching a special player here guys. Over the past 2 seasons, he is the best or second best player in the whole game. And he's only just now entering his prime. Holy s**t.
EDIT: I just did a bit more research and apparently only the last 31 games are given full weighting, with games 32 to 40 weighted less via a sliding scale, with game 40 weighted 5%. What does this mean? Cripps will actually reach a fairer rating even sooner than we thought. By the end of round 9, all of his "0 games" will be weighted less, and each week from there he'll be steadily improving until the peak of round 18.
These assessment are on the basis that Cripps merely continues to perform at the same level he has over the past 2 years. I.e. even if he doesn't actually improve from his average of last 2 years, his ratings will improve because of Maths alone. If he continues to improve his output on top of that, his ratings will improve even further.
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When you're gradually trading off quality older players like we have most seasons and replacing them with young players who are three to five seasons away you won't see gradual improvement. When the few older players you have are declining because they are a good number of years away from their prime age you won't see gradual improvement, if anything we will go the other way for a while and we have.
Bryce Gibbs goes out. Paddy Dow and Lochie O'Brien come in. Both those boys are 4 or 5 years away before they make up for that loss. Not saying it was a bad move, it was a great move for our future but there's bucket loads of examples of this and this is why you don't see gradual improvement.
This is the first season where the draftees from the start of the rebuild have matured enough to be able to play good footy at AFL level and they have. Weitering was criticised heavily last year and this year we are praising the footy he is playing. McKay cracked a game at the end of last year and this year he's marking everything. Cuningham has been a maligned player for most of his career, at the moment we can't wait to see him back in the side. Next year we have SPS, Fisher, Polson, Williamson and Kerr to look forward to hitting maturity.
So really we are only just coming into a period where we should begin to see the first signs of improvement and IMO we have but they are very small.
The gradual improvement I expect to see is that last season we lost by an average of nearly 50 points. I expect we can halve that or thereabouts. Winning two games, well I would like to think we can win 4. Perhaps we can double this every season for the next three seasons. That would see us get to a top side within 3 years.
A team like us, not much will happen for years then when we start to improve it will happen rapidly over two or three year period I believe.
We aren't comparable with Melbourne, just as how we aren't comparable to our last rebuild. Different approach, different people.
I think we're about the stage where we can go all out for a big name. I was happy for us to miss Shiel and instead get good numbers of youth like Setterfield, Walsh, Stocker etc.
I think our players are developing quite well. It's hard to see a player who has not improved. Charlie Curnow is the only player not to improve IMO and that's a form thing which was interrupted by injury.
I think a lot of us expected improving meant winning games and it might, but considering how far back and where we are at in a rebuild which will take 7 years and where most of our players are at in their careers it's going to take a while yet.
The media are going after us pretty hard right now. All I can say to them is (Where's the middle finger emoji?).
5 years down the bottom. Accumulate. Develop. Bang.
