Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[FlowersByIrene]

Cripps down 2? Pretty sure he stayed at the same position.

The +/- changes are the change in the players Player Rating, not their ranking. Cripps' current player rating is 550, down from 552 last week, while his ranking - 8th in the comp, has stayed the same.

 

[Metalcrusher]

The +/- changes are the change in the players Player Rating, not their ranking. Cripps' current player rating is 550, down from 552 last week, while his ranking - 8th in the comp, has stayed the same.

Pfft sytem is flawed … 8th player in the comp …...

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Pfft sytem is flawed … 8th player in the comp …...

Will be top 3 by the end of the season if he plays every game I reckon.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Will be top 3 by the end of the season if he plays every game I reckon.

LIFT FBI … there must be other was to creative account!

 

[Mr_Plow]

Some big jumps this round.

Just want to acknowledge Liam Jones, though. Not one of our youth but having a stellar season and is up from 198 at the end of last year to 118 and rocketing into the top 100. Phenomenal stuff from the guy. Is now our 3rd ranked player and 5th ranked key defender in the competition.

We welcome Zac Fisher into the top 200 this round, he sits at 199 after finishing last year at 265. He's hit the 40 game mark but should continue rising if performances continue due to his first few games being knocked off and recent games gaining greater weight. He's also firmly in our top 10 players now.

Samo will hit the top 200 soon enough, he's now at 229 after being 289 at the end of last year. At 48 games, he is now coming into his stride and impacting games across their entirety and is also in our top 10 ranked players.

Paddy Dow is having a good year thus far, no 2nd year blues for this guy, he's fighting his way through them. I'm sure he wishes things were happening faster, but he's still tracking beautifully long-term. He now has 26 games under his belt and sits at 327 after ending last season at 411. If he maintains his career pace (I suspect he's going well beyond that at the moment), he will be in the top 200 also by the end of the season.

Big Harry McKay is rocketing up the rankings as we speak; from 459 at the conclusion of 2018 to 372 currently. He too is on track to crack the top 200 if he maintains his current pace, which is super exciting and I did not see this coming so soon. Keep it going big guy.

And then there's Walsh... What more can one say, really? Starts the year at 654, is now sitting at 510 and absolutely smashing through the ranks weekly. He's averaging 11.8 points per game, which puts him at a ~470-475 pace. That's top 50 in the league, already. The guy is insane.

These are our big movers. I expect Cuningham to join this group if he gets some continuity.

 

[CJMB]

And then there's Walsh... What more can one say, really? Starts the year at 654, is now sitting at 510 and absolutely smashing through the ranks weekly. He's averaging 11.8 points per game, which puts him at a ~470-475 pace. That's top 50 in the league, already. The guy is insane.

Just on Walsh, I know it's hardly an accurate rank for all player types/positions but he's currently ranked 51st in the comp for total SC/CD points and 60th by average points. The player's either side of him are Tim Kelly and Tom Hawkins in both instances.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Just on Walsh, I know it's hardly an accurate rank for all player types/positions but he's currently ranked 51st in the comp for total SC/CD points and 60th by average points. The player's either side of him are Tim Kelly and Tom Hawkins in both instances.

That's absurd, even for a 1st overall pick.

I'm just sitting back and appreciating what he is doing, doesn't come around very often.

 

[jezzajay]

Just on Walsh, I know it's hardly an accurate rank for all player types/positions but he's currently ranked 51st in the comp for total SC/CD points and 60th by average points. The player's either side of him are Tim Kelly and Tom Hawkins in both instances.

At the risk of derailing the thread which is not what I'm trying to do...where does Rozee sit? It appears there are a few in the media with agendas to get him the Rising Star award...nuffies!!

 

[Jeremias]

Feast your eyes on these stats.





We're going to be alright...

 

[FootyGeek]

Having 5 of the top 20 players under 25 AFL wide outperforming their age and position this year is huge. Massive upside in the team.

Not only is it going to keep getting better every week, before long it will be taking huge steps forward each week.

Still a little while off, but it is going to happen.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

GAME 72 Rnd 6 2019 - LOSS vs Hawthorn (88-93)
15 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: 2 Patrick Cripps

Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)

Patrick Cripps – 545 (-5)
Nic Newman - 309 (-2)
Lachie Plowman - 292 (+4)
Zac Fisher – 315 (+4)
Jacob Weitering - 287 (+3)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 293 (+1)
Mitch McGovern - 218 (+11)
Paddy Dow – 220 (+11)
Jack Silvagni - 181 (+10)
Caleb Marchbank - 161 (0)
Harry McKay - 191 (+13)
David Cuningham - 107 (+13)
Lochie O'Brien - 83 (+4)
Sam Walsh - 71 (+12)
Michael Gibbons - 32 (+3)


Average: 220 (+7)

Huge jumps from McGovern, McKay, Cunners, SOS, Walsh and Dow. Will be tough over the next few weeks without Newman down back and McGovern up front but it should give room to see Willo or Stocker come in. Curnow back may be neough to balance out the los of Newman short term, fingers crossed. Almost got there, this week, onto another win next week.

 

[murphster]

At the risk of derailing the thread which is not what I'm trying to do...where does Rozee sit? It appears there are a few in the media with agendas to get him the Rising Star award...nuffies!!

Yeah your not wrong there it’s Hogan vs Cripps all over again.

 

[murphster]

That is some damn quality posting right there kids!

Your not wrong Crush that is some of the best posting I have seen, that is the best explanation of our rebuild I have seen anywhere and is absolutely bang on, the club could do a lot worse than getting gbatman to explain our rebuild to the masses. ( I actually mistyped that last word and it came out asses, maybe I should have left it for those that think we should be playing finals already) But seriously that has got to be POTY for me. How do you nominate?

 

[thylacine60]

Can't believe it was ever called a 66 game rebuild. Does the rebuild end when we get all the players we want on our list or does it end when those players mature and we start playing good football?

I would go with the latter.

Crunch the numbers...

In 2015 a rebuild will mean we replace all but 3 players. Docherty, Cripps and Jones.

That means that the task is to find 37 players of elite to good quality.

Those players will need to be allowed to mature which happens at around 22-24 years of age.

No priority picks or special compensation. Starting from a low base so not too many players to trade out so we're limited and trading out is going to hurt. No expendable players to trade.

We get 3 good draft picks per season. Without being crafty and getting package deals with our trades that means it would take 12 years to find 37 good players. 6 years to find 22. Plus 3 or 4 years for them to mature.

With aggressive trading and drafting and big list turnovers we can half that to 6 or 7 years. So 3 or 4 to find 22. Plus their development time frame of 3-4 years.

Crunch the numbers people. We are actually on track. No one wants to hear about 6 or 7 year rebuilds but this is the reality of it.

We are 4 years into a 6 or 7 year rebuild where we will be spending most of it down the bottom.

That will only change when we have our full list of players and most of them are in that 22 or 23-28 year old age bracket.

2015 - Rebuild begins, Clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on talls
2016 - clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on mids and flankers
2017 - Clean out focus on mids and a Ruck/forward etc
2018 - Rock bottom and heavy recruitment. Average losing margin just under 50. Focus on mids, some slightly more mature players and plugging holes

2019 - development year. Average losing margin halved. Focus on forwards and elite mids will look for mature players and build depth. 2015 draftees start to hit maturity. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, Silvagni.
2020 - Competitive year - Focus on filling the gaps mature players early and raw talent late. 2016 draftees start to hit maturity. SPS, Setterfield, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, .
2021 - Push for finals - Focus on an elite players and we fill holes with elite talent. 2017 Draftees begin to mature. Dow, O'Brien, DeKoning, Schumacher.
2022 - peak - Most players in the 23-28 year age gap. 2018 draftees hit maturity. Walsh, Stocker, O'Dwyer, Silvagni. Holes are filled, list is mature and very talented from years of patience and taking the long road. We present a very complete side with very few holes or weaknesses.

I would hope that this 66 game rebuild crap is something that has been spewed out to the fans and not something that is generally believed internally.

Crunch the numbers, we are all getting ahead of ourselves, this is a development year, if you don't like it then complain to the AFL that we haven't been resourced with enough draft picks. You put the priority pick into this equation and remove the two new teams and it takes a year or maybe even two off our rebuild time frame but this is the age we live in, this is Gil's AFL where it takes f***ing forever to build a team from scratch.

On a positive note, when we get to mid table things will mover very very fast. Our most important thing is player retention. I still believe if we keep our staff and our players and just keep adding to this then we will become a really really strong side when the rebuild is complete and the players mature.

I guess there would be a meltdown if the club came out and said it's going to be a 7 year rebuild and we will be down the bottom for most of it. In one way it would have been good to stick it to the AFL and their system but in another way it would have been disastrous for attendances, fan following, membership, recruitment and player retention.

This is not the first 7 year rebuild. Richmond did one. The big difference is where we are coming from is rock bottom and other teams usually start it from around mid table. Plus there are priority picks etc involved in other clubs rebuilds.

It's a harsh reality for us to get our heads around but this is the reality. None of us want to hear we have a couple more years to wait. We all want things to come on quicker but the numbers don't lie.

For what it's worth I wouldn't take too much notice of other developing clubs who are better than us or appear ahead of us like Brisbane or St Kilda. It's all about where we finish up and I am confident that when we finish we are a good chance to finish better. It's a long distance race and we have not sprinted at the start.

crazy good

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Can't believe it was ever called a 66 game rebuild. Does the rebuild end when we get all the players we want on our list or does it end when those players mature and we start playing good football?

I would go with the latter.

Crunch the numbers...

In 2015 a rebuild will mean we replace all but 3 players. Docherty, Cripps and Jones.

That means that the task is to find 37 players of elite to good quality.

Those players will need to be allowed to mature which happens at around 22-24 years of age.

No priority picks or special compensation. Starting from a low base so not too many players to trade out so we're limited and trading out is going to hurt. No expendable players to trade.

We get 3 good draft picks per season. Without being crafty and getting package deals with our trades that means it would take 12 years to find 37 good players. 6 years to find 22. Plus 3 or 4 years for them to mature.

With aggressive trading and drafting and big list turnovers we can half that to 6 or 7 years. So 3 or 4 to find 22. Plus their development time frame of 3-4 years.

Crunch the numbers people. We are actually on track. No one wants to hear about 6 or 7 year rebuilds but this is the reality of it.

We are 4 years into a 6 or 7 year rebuild where we will be spending most of it down the bottom.

That will only change when we have our full list of players and most of them are in that 22 or 23-28 year old age bracket.

2015 - Rebuild begins, Clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on talls
2016 - clean out and heavy recruitment - Focus on mids and flankers
2017 - Clean out focus on mids and a Ruck/forward etc
2018 - Rock bottom and heavy recruitment. Average losing margin just under 50. Focus on mids, some slightly more mature players and plugging holes

2019 - development year. Average losing margin halved. Focus on forwards and elite mids will look for mature players and build depth. 2015 draftees start to hit maturity. Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy, Silvagni.
2020 - Competitive year - Focus on filling the gaps mature players early and raw talent late. 2016 draftees start to hit maturity. SPS, Setterfield, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson, Kerr, .
2021 - Push for finals - Focus on an elite players and we fill holes with elite talent. 2017 Draftees begin to mature. Dow, O'Brien, DeKoning, Schumacher.
2022 - peak - Most players in the 23-28 year age gap. 2018 draftees hit maturity. Walsh, Stocker, O'Dwyer, Silvagni. Holes are filled, list is mature and very talented from years of patience and taking the long road. We present a very complete side with very few holes or weaknesses.

I would hope that this 66 game rebuild crap is something that has been spewed out to the fans and not something that is generally believed internally.

Crunch the numbers, we are all getting ahead of ourselves, this is a development year, if you don't like it then complain to the AFL that we haven't been resourced with enough draft picks. You put the priority pick into this equation and remove the two new teams and it takes a year or maybe even two off our rebuild time frame but this is the age we live in, this is Gil's AFL where it takes f***ing forever to build a team from scratch.

On a positive note, when we get to mid table things will mover very very fast. Our most important thing is player retention. I still believe if we keep our staff and our players and just keep adding to this then we will become a really really strong side when the rebuild is complete and the players mature.

I guess there would be a meltdown if the club came out and said it's going to be a 7 year rebuild and we will be down the bottom for most of it. In one way it would have been good to stick it to the AFL and their system but in another way it would have been disastrous for attendances, fan following, membership, recruitment and player retention.

This is not the first 7 year rebuild. Richmond did one. The big difference is where we are coming from is rock bottom and other teams usually start it from around mid table. Plus there are priority picks etc involved in other clubs rebuilds.

It's a harsh reality for us to get our heads around but this is the reality. None of us want to hear we have a couple more years to wait. We all want things to come on quicker but the numbers don't lie.

For what it's worth I wouldn't take too much notice of other developing clubs who are better than us or appear ahead of us like Brisbane or St Kilda. It's all about where we finish up and I am confident that when we finish we are a good chance to finish better. It's a long distance race and we have not sprinted at the start.

I totally agree G. Ive said for a long while its 7 years and have tried to defuse many criticizing our team/players/coach/performances. Although im thinking we as a club can rise a little earlier than i expected.

I too had us locked into challenging in 2022 but am starting to think our time could come sooner depending on obviously the stability of the club, players we retain and trade in and the games played by our youth.

Ive stated numerous times that im again not focused on our win column as many on here are. With a percentage of just under 60 last year and 2 wins, i believe the percentage is the only real passmark to show we are moving forward. With a percentage of 93.6 after 1 win and 5 losses, im more than convinced what we are doing as a club is working. If you compare that to the 1st 6 games last year, i only can take positives out of 2019 so far.

SPS has gone above and beyond in his 6 games so far this year. Harry is the other imo. Both players are a year ahead of where i expected them to be. Charlie is definitely not a concern but hopefully we can see some progression this year at some stage as i have him and Harry having a huge 2020.

What we need to see is just more games into the likes of Cuningham, Dow, Lob, stocker, Walsh, setterfield, williamson, schumacher, JSOS, gibbons and even Fisher.

If we managed to bring in 2 best 10 (at our club) players in this trade period coming, then i see our window opening earlier than 2022. If we got Docherty back to his best also, i have us close to playing finals in 2020 and then challenging in 2021.

What we have in our favour is some key pillars. Weitering, Jones, Marchbank, Charlie, Harry and even McGovern set us apart going forward. If all improve 10% in 2020 from 2019, then we are looking very strong. If somehow we secured a Coniglio/Taranto/Bilings and maybe a Langon type, i see us having a well before expected jump up the ladder.

This year is the last of our tough years. And im actually not finding it tough at all currently. The wins will come when we are good enough and that isn't far away

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I think some people underappreciate how good Sam Docherty was and will be for us in the future. Usuing the AFL Player Ratings as a terrible comparison. If we were to add Sam Docherty back into our current lineup, with him at full strength (previous highest around 440) our average AFL Player Rating would be 245, 25 points higher than it currently is, off the back of Docherty alone (and Curnow instead of Jack). That's a huge statistical margin.

I can't wait to see Sam Docherty back in Navy Blue again, I just hope he is the same or close to the same player.

 

[El Topo]

He was the best HBF in the comp by a considerable margin in 2017 - Doc at 80% is still an outstanding player and a key plank in any club's list

 

[gbatman]

I totally agree G. Ive said for a long while its 7 years and have tried to defuse many criticizing our team/players/coach/performances. Although im thinking we as a club can rise a little earlier than i expected.

I too had us locked into challenging in 2022 but am starting to think our time could come sooner depending on obviously the stability of the club, players we retain and trade in and the games played by our youth.

Ive stated numerous times that im again not focused on our win column as many on here are. With a percentage of just under 60 last year and 2 wins, i believe the percentage is the only real passmark to show we are moving forward. With a percentage of 93.6 after 1 win and 5 losses, im more than convinced what we are doing as a club is working. If you compare that to the 1st 6 games last year, i only can take positives out of 2019 so far.

SPS has gone above and beyond in his 6 games so far this year. Harry is the other imo. Both players are a year ahead of where i expected them to be. Charlie is definitely not a concern but hopefully we can see some progression this year at some stage as i have him and Harry having a huge 2020.

What we need to see is just more games into the likes of Cuningham, Dow, Lob, stocker, Walsh, setterfield, williamson, schumacher, JSOS, gibbons and even Fisher.

If we managed to bring in 2 best 10 (at our club) players in this trade period coming, then i see our window opening earlier than 2022. If we got Docherty back to his best also, i have us close to playing finals in 2020 and then challenging in 2021.

What we have in our favour is some key pillars. Weitering, Jones, Marchbank, Charlie, Harry and even McGovern set us apart going forward. If all improve 10% in 2020 from 2019, then we are looking very strong. If somehow we secured a Coniglio/Taranto/Bilings and maybe a Langon type, i see us having a well before expected jump up the ladder.

This year is the last of our tough years. And im actually not finding it tough at all currently. The wins will come when we are good enough and that isn't far away

Yeah it's a fairly straightforward process, the unfortunate part of it is the time frame.

There are a lot of variables to go, injuries will see us peak early or later and the quality of our recruiting as well.

Things are on track, we have our talls fairly well all there. We've mostly built our midfield and have most of our small defenders. Our forward line is about half built and the majority of our team has not had enough development yet.

The beauty about this season is that our injury toll has been ok and players are getting some continuity of games.

I think if we happen to land some top level mature age talent then we will arrive a little earlier than expected.

This season we have hit a point where we will start to progress forwards, baring a bad run of injuries. Things should continue in this direction but probably only marginally. If we improve by double our improvement every season for a few years we will win 4 games and the losing margin will be 25 points. 2020 that could be 8 games and a losing margin of around 10 or 15 and then potentially and so forth.

IMO we still have older players to replace as well as building our talent and depth and that is the biggest hurdle. Murphy, Simpson and Kreuzer are priority number one to replace but Thomas and perhaps Curnow are also up there as well. Some we have replacements coming through with Stocker, Docherty and TDK but that is not enough.

For a list management point of view I think we need to continue our trend of gradually trading out older players like we have done with Gibbs and Tuohy. If we could get replacements and get something good guys like Kreuzer and Murphy should be traded but that should only happen if a senior ruckman was coming our way and a top mid or two like a Coniglio and/or Taranto etc.

It's going to be a challenging year for Carlton at the trade table but I can see something like this going down just so we can get the numbers of quality coming our way, get the replacement process accelerated and do with with players who can mike a significant and immediate impact.

We're going to get natural improvement next season from our existing players but we really need to be bringing in some quality players who are already there or are about to peak if we are to make big strides.

 

[BluStreak]

In all honesty i believe that the '66' reference was purely to turning over the list to get a decent group of talented players.
I believe this as it was stated it would take 3 years of trading and going to the draft to do that. The 'games' reference was 3 time 22 hence the 66 game reference.
To believe that we would be playing finals once we went over the 66 games would have been wishful thinking IMO.

Realistically, and this have been mentioned by other posters before, this season is the season where we start to see the team 'gel' and develop consistent football. Which I think you can see we are doing.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

GAME 73 Rnd 6 2019 - LOSS vs North Melbourne (62-120)
17 Youth Players
Coaches Votes: Nil

Youth - AFL Player Ratings (+/- change)

Patrick Cripps – 553 (+8)
Charlie Curnow - 370 (+5)
Lachie Plowman - 288 (-4)
Zac Fisher – 322 (+8)
Jacob Weitering - 290 (+3)
Sam Petrevski-Seton – 293 (0)
Paddy Dow – 221 (+1)
Jack Silvagni - 190 (+9)
Caleb Marchbank - 151 (-10)
Harry McKay - 190 (-1)
David Cuningham - 115 (+9)
Lochie O'Brien - 89 (+7)
Sam Walsh - 77 (+6)
Michael Gibbons - 38 (+6)
Tom Williamson - 34 (-1)
Liam Stocker - 1 (+1)


Average: 201 (-19)

Complete and utter nosedive last week.

 

[mjonc43]

Hi Flowers, are you alive? My favourite thread needs updating :-(


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dlb99]

Ive stated numerous times that im again not focused on our win column as many on here are. With a percentage of just under 60 last year and 2 wins, i believe the percentage is the only real passmark to show we are moving forward. With a percentage of 93.6 after 1 win and 5 losses, im more than convinced what we are doing as a club is working. If you compare that to the 1st 6 games last year, i only can take positives out of 2019 so far.

We were tracking well, then the North and GWS games happened

Now we are 1 win - 8 losses with a percentage of 76.4%

I hope we can get it up to 85% (plus). Beltings really are demoralising. Hopefully the GWS game was the line in the sand, no more beltings.

Note, I do believe we have improved over 2018, but it would be nice to get some wins in the 4 weeks to reward on investment.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Note, I do believe we have improved over 2018, but it would be nice to get some wins in the 4 weeks to reward on investment.

Well there you go mate. Its all about the fact you havent got some wins after all. Just as a few people suggested.
Heck theres nothing wrong with feeling bad about it. I sure do as well.
But this tirade against the coach and club is not the way to go about it.

 

[dlb99]

Well there you go mate. Its all about the fact you havent got some wins after all. Just as a few people suggested.
Heck theres nothing wrong with feeling bad about it. I sure do as well.
But this tirade against the coach and club is not the way to go about it.

Where was the tirade in the post I just made? There was none. Stop being dramatic. Stay on point please, stay away with the personal stuff.

Again, the point I was making, since you missed it, is that our % has dropped from 94% to 76% in 3 games. Beltings are in no way beneficial for the club. Naturally when you win games your % improves. Hence, I hope we win games, many many of them.

 

[Arr0w]

Where was the tirade in the post I just made? There was none. Stop being dramatic. Stay on point please, stay away with the personal stuff.

Again, the point I was making, since you missed it, is that our % has dropped from 94% to 76% in 3 games. Beltings are in no way beneficial for the club. Naturally when you win games your % improves. Hence, I hope we win games, many many of them.

DLB, can you not repeat yourself in multiple threads?

If your target is Bolton, then stick to that thread rather infesting other threads with the same rhetoric