Opinion Beyond the 66 game rebuild

[Cripps17]

Given we are approaching now the end of ‘phase one’ of our rebuild for lack of a better term, I am interested to hear people’s actual expectations and timeframe from Round 1 2019.

If the goal/expectation of ‘phase one’ was to attack the drafts, bring in young talent and get games into them, what are the goals and expectations during ‘phase two’?

For the purpose of the thread I am suggesting phase two is the period prior to us being a serious flag threat (i.e. top 4).

Given both the timeframe and expectations for this period will differ, I am interested to hear what these are for everyone (and subsequently when doubt may creep in if we’ve not met those expectations).

Some questions I would suggest to help along discussion points are:

• Do supporters have a broad expectation of KPIs that would convince them we are on the right path during this period (or not as the case may be)? If so what are you looking for?
• Do wins matter during 2018-20? If so what is a range you would hope to see during this time? If not, when do they matter?
• Does ladder position matter? Would you expect us to be out of the bottom 2 or bottom 4 by a certain year?
• Do you think we can go from no finals to contenders (top 4) in one season? If not, when do you expect us to start playing finals?
• Does FA/trades matter? If at the end of 2020 we have not signed anyone of note (e.g. Gaff, Shiel, Kelly) does your outlook change?
• What if we lose a Cripps, Curnow or Fisher? What if it is instead a Mckay, SPS or Macreadie? Do you give up hope?
• When do you expect we should be genuine contenders?
• Or, are you not concerned with any of the above, and will only judge post 2020/21 irrespective of what is occurring beforehand (provided we retain SOS/Bolts)?

In short, what are your expectations from next year (i.e. the signs that we are on the right path) and at what point will you question our direction if the results are not fulfilling them.

 

[james Dean]

Do supporters have a broad expectation of KPIs that would convince them we are on the right path during this period (or not as the case may be)? If so what are you looking for?

• Do wins matter during 2018-20? If so what is a range you would hope to see during this time? If not, when do they matter?
• Does ladder position matter? Would you expect us to be out of the bottom 2 or bottom 4 by a certain year?
• Do you think we can go from no finals to contenders (top 4) in one season? If not, when do you expect us to start playing finals?
• Does FA/trades matter? If at the end of 2020 we have not signed anyone of note (e.g. Gaff, Shiel, Kelly) does your outlook change?
• What if we lose a Cripps, Curnow or Fisher? What if it is instead a Mckay, SPS or Macreadie? Do you give up hope?
• When do you expect we should be genuine contenders?
• Or, are you not concerned with any of the above, and will only judge post 2020/21 irrespective of what is occurring beforehand (provided we retain SOS/Bolts)?

In short, what are your expectations from next year (i.e. the signs that we are on the right path) and at what point will you question our direction if the results are not fulfilling them.

1) Absolutely they matter.. It is the only way to measure whether you are truly competitive.
2) Again, yes it does matter although if we win 8 games and that is still not enough to get out of the bottom 4, then so be it.
3) No, not a chance. Our trajectory will be similar to Melbourne's in my opinion.
4) We need to be more active in Free Agency, even if it is not an elite player like Gaff or Kelly, bringing in quality ready made players is essential. No more Aaron Mullet's and Daniel Gorringe's
5) If Cripps walks then it will be a massive blow, he is our only genuine superstar and our best player since Judd. The others would suck but would not cripple the club
6) At this stage it's hard to tell given we are so far off the mark. If I were to be forced into a guess I would say 2021 at the absolute earliest.

Quite frankly if we do not show serious improvement in 2019 then Bolton will be on his way out.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I feel I have some experience to comment on this topic.

When I originally developed the scope of my own personal vision of the 66 Game Rebuild I had the goal at the end of the rebuild to be to be playing in an elimination final in the 67th game.. i.e Round 1 of this year's finals.

Obviously that isnt going to happen. Now whether I was overly optimistic or the club failed to make the correct decisions to implement the rebuild (i.e trading for better/more appropriate middle aged support and spending cash on free agents which we have not done) the reason is really irrelevant.

It is clear to me now that the rebuild HAS to progress next season or heads will role, supporters will give up and players will leave.

It is PARAMOUNT that we bring in a free agent this off season and better middle aged depth (Cameron O'Shea thanks for your efforts for the Northern Blues but please.. no more).

It is also essential that we hit the draft hard again and I mean HARD we have to trade out everything we can from 2019 to hit this 2018 draft. I dont care if we have picks 78, 79 and 115 as our first three picks in 2019, we NEED to get the density of our youth right. Currently it is pretty dense with the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts and obviously Cripps, Doch, Marchbank Plow and a few others older.. but in order to have that contingent of youth at the peak of their powers at the same time we can't afford to stretch it out over the 2018 and 2019 drafts, we NEED to go all out for this draft and go from there.

Players begin to contribute cpnsistently to AFL sides when they hit 50-100 games.

Of our current youth, I'd expect Docherty, Cripps, Kerridge, Plowman, Weitering, Curnow, Fisher, SPS and SOS, Kenendy to be in the 50-100 game bracket by the end of next season.

Any free agents or trades we make in the bracket will be added to that list.

The question is therefore. Can that core of 9 players plus Simmo, Kreuze, Murphy, Wright, Thomas, Casboult, Ed Curnow, Jones etc make the finals in 2019? Potentially not.


But when Dow, McKay, Williamso, Byrne, Cuningham etc make 50 games in 2020? We should be able to make finals.

 

[BluStreak]

For me Phase two is where we will see the improvement of play from our side.
When our young players begin to know that a team mate will be where they expect them to be.
In this phase two period is where the players confidence in the game plan and its execution will see us move up the table.
Season 2019 I would expect us to be no lower than 15th, 2020 I would expect us to be just outside the finals with 2021 us playing finals.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I feel I have some experience to comment on this topic.

When I originally developed the scope of my own personal vision of the 66 Game Rebuild I had the goal at the end of the rebuild to be to be playing in an elimination final in the 67th game.. i.e Round 1 of this year's finals.

Obviously that isnt going to happen. Now whether I was overly optimistic or the club failed to make the correct decisions to implement the rebuild (i.e trading for better/more appropriate middle aged support and spending cash on free agents which we have not done) the reason is really irrelevant.

It is clear to me now that the rebuild HAS to progress next season or heads will role, supporters will give up and players will leave.

It is PARAMOUNT that we bring in a free agent this off season and better middle aged depth (Cameron O'Shea thanks for your efforts for the Northern Blues but please.. no more).

It is also essential that we hit the draft hard again and I mean HARD we have to trade out everything we can from 2019 to hit this 2018 draft. I dont care if we have picks 78, 79 and 115 as our first three picks in 2019, we NEED to get the density of our youth right. Currently it is pretty dense with the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts and obviously Cripps, Doch, Marchbank Plow and a few others older.. but in order to have that contingent of youth at the peak of their powers at the same time we can't afford to stretch it out over the 2018 and 2019 drafts, we NEED to go all out for this draft and go from there.

Players begin to contribute cpnsistently to AFL sides when they hit 50-100 games.

Of our current youth, I'd expect Docherty, Cripps, Kerridge, Plowman, Weitering, Curnow, Fisher, SPS and SOS, Kenendy to be in the 50-100 game bracket by the end of next season.

Any free agents or trades we make in the bracket will be added to that list.

The question is therefore. Can that core of 9 players plus Simmo, Kreuze, Murphy, Wright, Thomas, Casboult, Ed Curnow, Jones etc make the finals in 2019? Potentially not.


But when Dow, McKay, Williamso, Byrne, Cuningham etc make 50 games in 2020? We should be able to make finals.

I absolutely agree with you RE hitting this years draft hard, using future picks including our 2019 first rounder to achieve it. And as you said, I'm also not bothered if our only 2019 picks are 4th, 5th or 6th rounders. Hopefully this will also include a PP, which I feel we should have zero shame in asking the AFL for it. Its clear we need an extra leg up.

I also agree its paramount that we utilize free agents this year, the likes of Gaff, Wallis, Guthrie etc are all right in the right age group we need them to be, and I'm also not opposed to Rory Sloane, who is a little older than the others, but equally worth chasing as well as trading for needs ( Ollie Wines for example). I don't think we have utilized free agency as well as we could have and I don't think we have traded out all that well either if I'm honest. This will upset a few but I have always been of the opinion that by now, all of Gibbs, Kruezer and Murphy should have been traded away by now. I would still look to trade Kruezer at the end of the season if I'm honest and see if anyone bites and what they would give for him. Id also look to trade Liam Jones as well.

As far as the likes of Simmo, and Daisy, at best Id offer them one year deals on the provisio that they are no longer best 22 players. I really think its time we moved past them for 2019 onwards. I will leave it there, I'm sure that will upset enough people for now.

 

[blue healer]

I have no experience on this topic. My team has never had a rebuild.

 

[Cripps17]

I have no experience on this topic. My team has never had a rebuild.

Plenty experience in failing to meet expectations though!

 

[Metalcrusher]

I have no experience on this topic. My team has never had a rebuild.

Do you follow Real Madrid?

 

[The Flying Doormat]

What my expectations are for round 1 2019 now, and what they were six weeks ago are somewhat different.
I had envisioned a competitive unit, upsetting a few fancied teams and moving up the table with 8-10 wins.
What I see now is more struggle, more development and another tough year.

 

[TheRedPill]

It is also essential that we hit the draft hard again and I mean HARD we have to trade out everything we can from 2019 to hit this 2018 draft. I dont care if we have picks 78, 79 and 115 as our first three picks in 2019, we NEED to get the density of our youth right. Currently it is pretty dense with the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts and obviously Cripps, Doch, Marchbank Plow and a few others older.. but in order to have that contingent of youth at the peak of their powers at the same time we can't afford to stretch it out over the 2018 and 2019 drafts, we NEED to go all out for this draft and go from there.

I disagree. This notion of “let’s go all in, right now” is at odds with the idea of sustainable list management.

You mention the age density of the list, and note how many of our players are from the last three drafts. This somehow means we need to increase the concentration of our age profile in that one 4-year block? Au contraire, we want to have a consistent pipeline of talent coming through, adding prospects every year, year after year. That means 10 years down the track, we don’t have everyone in our best 22 retiring or declining at once.

It came up last year, and the year before, how we NEED to trade all of the next year’s draft capital into this year. I’m completely baffled as to how people think this is a good idea. It’s unbalanced and myopic. You naturally keep an open mind with future picks as they grant a degree of flexibility...but that’s only in extreme circumstances, and should generally only be considered if you are getting an outrageously good deal. I wrote an unreasonably long post about the perils of trading future picks last year - not sure where it has gotten to.

A weak list such as ours gains no benefit from realizing that draft capital sooner. It’s more palatable for sides challenging for the flag with a desperately small window.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I disagree. This notion of “let’s go all in, right now” is at odds with the idea of sustainable list management.

You mention the age density of the list, and note how many of our players are from the last three drafts. This somehow means we need to increase the concentration of our age profile in that one 4-year block? Au contraire, we want to have a consistent pipeline of talent coming through, adding prospects every year, year after year. That means 10 years down the track, we don’t have everyone in our best 22 retiring or declining at once.

It came up last year, and the year before, how we NEED to trade all of the next year’s draft capital into this year. I’m completely baffled as to how people think this is a good idea. It’s unbalanced and myopic. You naturally keep an open mind with future picks as they grant a degree of flexibility...but that’s only in extreme circumstances, and should generally only be considered if you are getting an outrageously good deal. I wrote an unreasonably long post about the perils of trading future picks last year - not sure where it has gotten to.

A weak list such as ours gains no benefit from realizing that draft capital sooner. It’s more palatable for sides challenging for the flag with a desperately small window.

Have a look at Geelongs premiership sides.. their core came from two drafts two years apart with the rest spread out.

Picture the year 2022 - Docherty (drafted 2012) 9 years, Cripps (drafted in 2013) has been in the AFL for 8 years, Weitering, Charlie, McKay (drafted 2015) 6 years, SPS, Fisher (drafted 2016) 5 years, Dow, O'brien (Drafted 2017) 4 years, this year's draftees (Drafted 2018) 3 years.

Considering it takes at least 3 years for players to make an impact.. and more like 5+ for sustained impact. Kids drafted in 2019 will only be in their second year by the time Cripps is 27 or so...

We want the most amount of players as we can get between 3-10 year AFL experience.. while Cripps and Docherty are still in that bracket. And that point is this season. Hence why we need to go hard.

Obviously in not suggesting we never have to draft again. Obviously adding one or two kids ala Joel Selwood or Cyril Rioli were added to premiership sides will help. But we need that density to culminate this season. Needs to happen now.

If we meander along taking the same amount of picks every year we will never have a period of concentrated talent as strong as we could have if we go hard this season.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

beyond the 66 game reset is a 66 game rebuild
I think mlg won't be President next year


my guess is Jenkins will be President and Chris Judd will be VP

The AFL end Caro will completely get behind this progressive leadership

Mark will be the best causalty

I have no doubts

not a fan of Mark by the way

 

[BJuddy]

I tend to think this will be the make or break offseason. All the building blocks are in place at the moment and things are progressing. But I think if we nail this offseason with the draft but more importantly FA we can really improve.

Stuff this and we may go back to square 1.

We don't have a lot of tradable assets anymore. Need to land a few younger Midfielders who have been in the system 5-7 years and are of a high quality.

Guys like O'shea and Mullett have to be pushed out of getting a game.

IMO we will see some big improvers again next season like we have this year with Charlie and Fisher. But we need 4-5 players from these last few drafts, not just two.

Will be exciting.

Hope we don't go after Tom Lynch. Would much rather Sloane or even Gaff. Need run and speed.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I tend to think this will be the make or break offseason. All the building blocks are in place at the moment and things are progressing. But I think if we nail this offseason with the draft but more importantly FA we can really improve.

Stuff this and we may go back to square 1.

We don't have a lot of tradable assets anymore. Need to land a few younger Midfielders who have been in the system 5-7 years and are of a high quality.

Guys like O'shea and Mullett have to be pushed out of getting a game.

IMO we will see some big improvers again next season like we have this year with Charlie and Fisher. But we need 4-5 players from these last few drafts, not just two.

Will be exciting.

Hope we don't go after Tom Lynch. Would much rather Sloane or even Gaff. Need run and speed.

If anyone I'd love us to go after T.T Lynch from Adelaide. Incredibly underrated gun and is out of contract. Is he an FA?

 

[davis_756]

If all of a sudden SPS, Fisher, Dow, O'Brien, Cunningham are collecting 30 touches a week, throw in hopefully the best mid this draft our midfield suddenly becomes so much more dangerous. If Mckay/Curnow/Pickett take that next step up forward our forward line looks functional, If Weitering gets his mojo back and starts dominating forwards and we get docherty/williamson back.

When will it all click, we will get highlights over the next 12 months but id be looking at 2020 before all of these consistently hit that benchmark and we push high into finals.

 

[BJuddy]

If anyone I'd love us to go after T.T Lynch from Adelaide. Incredibly underrated gun and is out of contract. Is he an FA?

Yeah, he is not bad, but IMO not the type of player I would target. Think he needs proper delivery to be effective. Think JSOS could play this role if we could actually target players inside 50 instead of bombing away and having Casboult go for pack mark.

Think we need to keep developing players with footy smarts and good skills, mids, flanks and wings.

Our Forwards will go alright once we start lowering the eyes and honouring leads. This would be great to be able to have Kerr in, could develop into great lead up forward.

Need a couple of crumbing forwards who run both ways.

 

[Malifice]

When I originally developed the scope of my own personal vision of the 66 Game Rebuild I had the goal at the end of the rebuild to be to be playing in an elimination final in the 67th game.. i.e Round 1 of this year's finals.

Obviously that isnt going to happen. Now whether I was overly optimistic or the club failed to make the correct decisions to implement the rebuild (i.e trading for better/more appropriate middle aged support and spending cash on free agents which we have not done) the reason is really irrelevant.

That was never the goal. And yes, you were being optimistic. I recall telling you as much. On multiple occasions.

The goal was to hit the draft hard and rebuild the list, with a focus on youth, over a 3 year period. You don't emerge from a total gutting of the list (40+ list changes) over a 3 year period, emerging with a bunch of kids that haven't played much AFL together (or indeed at all) and expect to be playing in an elimination final.

I mean you can expect that, but yes that is overly optimistic. To say the least.

It was always going to be a three year period to prune back the list, and get in as many (talented) kids as we could, followed by a 'phase two' of development and gradual improvement, and the supplementation of those kids with talented free agents and trades.

Only after we've done both (first gotten the kids in over those three years, and second gotten at least 50-100 games into the kids drafted during the 3 year rebuild, and third supplemented those kids with trades and free agents) that we should start to see finals appearances.

It was always going to be 3 years of getting the kids and then a few years (2-3) of getting games into them, and development (plus augmenting the list with free agents and trades) before we can expect success.

Like I have been telling you for years now, we wont be anywhere near finals till 2020 at the earliest.

For mine we now need to be getting in an experienced player or two to augment the list, without sacrificing getting in more young talent. We're in that transition between hitting the draft hard and getting in free agents and experienced bodies to protect the kids we do have, and to provide a senior core.

I'm fully in favour of trading our future 1st next year (and one of our seconds this year) for an established player, plus throwing the farm at a free agent like Gaff. We should also be hitting this years super draft hard, and trying to manufacture 2 picks in the top 10 (breaking down pick 1 into 2 x top 10 picks) or simply using pick 1 on the best player. In addition to a heavy presence in the 1st round of the draft this year, we need to do what we haven't done in the past 3 years, and that's look to add at least 1 (and preferably 2) A grade experienced players.

Next year we need to go all out for Shiel. 4 million over 4 years, with 2 million in year one (then 8k then 6k and 6k) type of thing.

We are carrying way to many kids at present and our mature senior talent (24+) is either injured (Murphy, Kruezer, Docherty), or handy role players (Casboult, Wright, Rowe, ASOS, Jones) barring Simpson.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Yeah, he is not bad, but IMO not the type of player I would target. Think he needs proper delivery to be effective. Think JSOS could play this role if we could actually target players inside 50 instead of bombing away and having Casboult go for pack mark.

Think we need to keep developing players with footy smarts and good skills, mids, flanks and wings.

Our Forwards will go alright once we start lowering the eyes and honouring leads. This would be great to be able to have Kerr in, could develop into great lead up forward.

Need a couple of crumbing forwards who run both ways.

T.T Lynch gets 20+ possessions around the ground. I think he'd excel in any team or system.

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Need to start getting wins !!

Gaff , Shiel or both ... midfield depth around Cripps

Cripps should be captain next year !!

 

[BJuddy]

T.T Lynch gets 20+ possessions around the ground. I think he'd excel in any team or system.

You may very well be right. JMO

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Need to start getting wins !!

Gaff , Shiel or both ... midfield depth around Cripps

Cripps should be captain next year !!

PS + Docherty back !!

 

[DangerousD]

It came up last year, and the year before, how we NEED to trade all of the next year’s draft capital into this year. I’m completely baffled as to how people think this is a good idea. It’s unbalanced and myopic. You naturally keep an open mind with future picks as they grant a degree of flexibility...but that’s only in extreme circumstances, and should generally only be considered if you are getting an outrageously good deal. I wrote an unreasonably long post about the perils of trading future picks last year - not sure where it has gotten to.

A weak list such as ours gains no benefit from realizing that draft capital sooner. It’s more palatable for sides challenging for the flag with a desperately small window.

Does your aversion to trading future picks change if the club know they will be targeting FA's come the end of next season? Im keen to get another pick in the top 20 of this years draft and im happy to use a 2019 pick to get that but i don't want to compromise our draft position next year too much.

 

[DangerousD]

If im being honest, i expected to be a bit more competitive this season, the last of our 66 games. Im still confident we will get better as the season goes on and we will start to see some good signs going in to the off season.

As for the next phase, i see it being pretty short at 1-2 seasons. Next season is huge for us as a club and i feel we need to start winning a lot more games and challenging for the top 8 (This doesn't mean making the 8). Im not sure i see Bolton, MLG or SOS surviving another bottom 2-3 finish in 2019, not that i think that will happen though.

Going forward i think the club need to target quality senior players as soon as this offseason. Although i see it as unlikely the good FA's will come to us, if we were to add a Gaff (19) and Shiel (20) then it changes the timeframe for success massively. I look at the Richmond side at the moment and see 4 star players a further 4-6 really good players then a group of solid foot soldiers. Without including any of our kids who i rate highly imagine a senior group in 2020 of Murph (1-2 seasons left), Simpson (Last season), Doch, Kruz, Gaff, Shiel, Cripps. This doesn't compromise any drafting strategy.

To finish, we need to start adding experienced bigger bodies to our team, keep hitting the draft, start playing consistent footy next year and start climbing the ladder. A bottom 2-3 finish and i will have serious concerns over Boltons ability to coach.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I tend to think this will be the make or break offseason. All the building blocks are in place at the moment and things are progressing. But I think if we nail this offseason with the draft but more importantly FA we can really improve.

Stuff this and we may go back to square 1.

We don't have a lot of tradable assets anymore. Need to land a few younger Midfielders who have been in the system 5-7 years and are of a high quality.

Guys like O'shea and Mullett have to be pushed out of getting a game.

IMO we will see some big improvers again next season like we have this year with Charlie and Fisher. But we need 4-5 players from these last few drafts, not just two.

Will be exciting.

Hope we don't go after Tom Lynch. Would much rather Sloane or even Gaff. Need run and speed.

Very good post #99 BJuddy (was #99 when I started this post yesterday!) but this one does not provoke you to the century.

We have trade assets if we are prepared to trade any of them. I’ll name 10 (for fun): Charlie, Weitering, Harry, SPS, Fisher, Docherty, Marchbank, Pickett, Dow and O’Brien.

We have 1 or 2 others that are possibles: Cuningham and Byrne.

IMO we need to focus on:

Midfield, run, speed, an inside/outside midfielder (which we hope Dow will become) and 22+ year olds with strong bodies. We need a few as we have a thin midfield as it is, and with Murphy and Ed closer to the end of their careers.

Defence, small defender that beats his man. Docherty doesn’t do this, neither does Simmo, Byrne or anyone else we trial in the small defender role. We need Williamson on the wing.

Forward, crumbing, pressure forwards who make our bevy of tall forwards work. Imagine if McKay, Charlie, Jack and Casboult had say Charlie Cameron and Orazio Fantasia front and Center.

Ruck, Kreuzer, Phillips and Lobbe are about the same age and injury prone. McKay doesn’t ruck much and TDK is raw. A ruckman around 24yo would not go astray.

The players that I hope to see pushed out as the young players come through: O’Shea, Mullett, Thomas and Wright. Then there’s players closer to the end of their careers: Murphy, Ed, Rowe, Simpson, Casboult ... and likely delisted ... Graham, Lamb ...

 

[Laphroaig]

I don't usually come to this board. But.

Carlton is not ready for free agents. Mediocre free agents are list cloggers in disguise, and gun free agents cost too much for us right now.

The thing that has been done so very right over the last couple of years is NOT investing salary cap in mature players; and instead plowing it into immediate contract extensions for kids who show what they have. We are not at the point yet where selling the farm for a bloke who has two or three good years left makes sense. If we do, at some time in that two or three years we'll lose a 22-25 year old just as good (or even two) because the money to keep him has been spent.

The model for where we are going is the early WC Eagles. The League tried to screw them and instead forced them into becoming a team full of talented kids who got thrashed week in week out. Until they all grew into men at once and were frighteningly good.

Then and only then, when the current 18-20s are 23-25 (maybe a year earlier if all goes extra well) is it time to throw everything at a star. And maybe not even then. THink the off season recruiting of a handful of quite ordinary role players taking Richmond from predicted to miss finals to a flag.

Patience people. This year could have been a nice chunk of visible progress. However. It was always my opinion that after trading Gibbs, if we lost one or two of our few quality mature players we were thoroughly screwed.

So we've had the other three (plus Gibbs) of our B&F top 4 out. And three or four of our first choice back six out most weeks as a bonus.

Any team in the game would struggle with that much of their cream on the sidelines (remember Hawthorn this time last year?). For us, for reasons some of you have mentioned above, it's even harder. FOr our mature depth is non-existent.