Opinion Beyond the 66 game rebuild

[Andonis1997]

Yeah, he is not bad, but IMO not the type of player I would target. Think he needs proper delivery to be effective. Think JSOS could play this role if we could actually target players inside 50 instead of bombing away and having Casboult go for pack mark.

He's a beautiful kick of the footy and can set-up anyone on the lead.

You'll see that all too much tomorrow.. But hopefully he keeps kicking it to Josh Jenkins so we can have a chance at winning

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Say Weitering gets back to his old form. And Harry kicks 30 goals this season. Just for fun... what are they worth when it comes to picks?

Just for fun remember

 

[Captain Cripps]

Say Weitering gets back to his old form. And Harry kicks 30 goals this season. Just for fun... what are they worth when it comes to picks?

Just for fun remember

Can’t trade harry
We need firepower in forward half

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Can’t trade harry
We need firepower in forward half

Theres no such thing as 'we can't trade a player'. Do the reigning premier have a power forward? Does jack kick all their goals? No. Not that i think we need to be like Richmond. But play the game. Whats he worth?

 

[Foucault1989]

Theres no such thing as 'we can't trade a player'. Do the reigning premier have a power forward? Does jack kick all their goals? No. Not that i think we need to be like Richmond. But play the game. Whats he worth?

At best probably a pick between 15-25 in this draft.. .But that's absolute best case scenario .Perhaps if De Goey leaves collingwood and they miss out on Tom Lynch we could do a trade there especially if we take Lukosius with pick 1

 

[HereComesJuddy]

At best probably a pick between 15-25 in this draft.. .But that's absolute best case scenario .Perhaps if De Goey leaves collingwood and they miss out on Tom Lynch we could do a trade there especially if we take Lukosius with pick 1

Id think harry if he kicks 30 plus goals this year would be worth better than that. North will be in the market for a key forward. Waite will be done soon and they love big forwards. The suns too if lynch leaves.

And if weits gets into good form and McGovern leaves wce. You watch them come chasing

 

[Captain Cripps]

Theres no such thing as 'we can't trade a player'. Do the reigning premier have a power forward? Does jack kick all their goals? No. Not that i think we need to be like Richmond. But play the game. Whats he worth?

But they have Jack?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

But they have Jack?

Don't worry about it...

 

[Captain Cripps]

Don't worry about it...

Show me you’re logic and I’ll listen

 

[Laphroaig]

Theres no such thing as 'we can't trade a player'. Do the reigning premier have a power forward? Does jack kick all their goals? No. Not that i think we need to be like Richmond. But play the game. Whats he worth?

How about an insane to trade player then?

Riewoldt is crucial to Richmond's game plan. Without him or a similarly talented player of the same type the whole thing falls apart. And there are only around five players in the game right now who fit that description.

NOTHING about the Richmond game plan changes the fact that a genuine star tall forward is the most precious commodity in the game. Midfielders get all the kudos, but if you put the names of the best 40 mids in the game in a hat and drew out 4 at random, hey presto you have a dominant midfield.

In Curnow C it is highly probable that we have a star tall forward. One who, like Pavlich in his prime years, might just have the ability to be a top drawer midfielder as well.

Best case if you shop Curnow around now you get a first for him. Which you would then have to use on an unproven baby tall who's going to take 3 to 5 years to make a meaningful impact. If he ever does. Which the majority of young talls don't.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Show me you’re logic and I’ll listen

I believe richmond has kicked 91 goals this season to date. Jack has kicked 14 of those.

You mentioned that we need Harry for scoring power. I simply presented you the reigning premier as an example that key forwards arent the be all and end all.

It maybe considered a bold move, but if we could somehow get 2 picks approx 12 and 16 for him (yes we may need to throw a 2nd back) than it could be a good deal for us. This of course would require harry having a great season of course.

Maybe similar for Weitering. If mcgovern leaves wce will come calling hard. Again of course if weitering turns it around quickly. Plus a shuffle of picks

Key forwards and backs are valuable. I get that. But i also get that a champion team is usually better than a team of champions.

I know everyone wants us to move up the ladder straight away but i don't see it happening this year or next.

I would love to have a:
Jayden Stephenson - pick 6
Darcy Fogarty - pick 12
Ed Richards - pick 16
Jack Higgins - pick 17
Tim Kelly - pick 24
Liam Ryan - pick 26

We have pick 1-2 most likely sitting there that we could cash in for 2 1st round picks.

I know its only early days but imagine if we turned pick 1-2 into picks 6 and 12 (and took the above players). Turned Harry into picks 16 and 24 (above players) and weitering into picks 17 and 26 above again). Again yes there would need to probably be a shuffle of picks.

All im saying is, we do have players that could be traded. If we ended up with similar players this year as above and added gaff and wallis. Id suggest our depth grows a lot. We get a stonger midfield. We become more competive (maybe).

As i said, its for fun. But anything is a possibility. A player is worth what a team is willing to pay.

 

[Blues90]

I believe richmond has kicked 91 goals this season to date. Jack has kicked 14 of those.

You mentioned that we need Harry for scoring power. I simply presented you the reigning premier as an example that key forwards arent the be all and end all.

It maybe considered a bold move, but if we could somehow get 2 picks approx 12 and 16 for him (yes we may need to throw a 2nd back) than it could be a good deal for us. This of course would require harry having a great season of course.

Maybe similar for Weitering. If mcgovern leaves wce will come calling hard. Again of course if weitering turns it around quickly. Plus a shuffle of picks

Key forwards and backs are valuable. I get that. But i also get that a champion team is usually better than a team of champions.

I know everyone wants us to move up the ladder straight away but i don't see it happening this year or next.

I would love to have a:
Jayden Stephenson - pick 6
Darcy Fogarty - pick 12
Ed Richards - pick 16
Jack Higgins - pick 17
Tim Kelly - pick 24
Liam Ryan - pick 26

We have pick 1-2 most likely sitting there that we could cash in for 2 1st round picks.

I know its only early days but imagine if we turned pick 1-2 into picks 6 and 12 (and took the above players). Turned Harry into picks 16 and 24 (above players) and weitering into picks 17 and 26 above again). Again yes there would need to probably be a shuffle of picks.

All im saying is, we do have players that could be traded. If we ended up with similar players this year as above and added gaff and wallis. Id suggest our depth grows a lot. We get a stonger midfield. We become more competive (maybe).

As i said, its for fun. But anything is a possibility. A player is worth what a team is willing to pay.

Thats why we got lang and we have pickett and garlett when they play together will be formidable fishers fast so is sps and byrne we have speed just needs to stay on the park

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[JustaBattler]

66 game rebuild was always 'optimistic' as far as final appearance goes...

- because you cant get rid of 40 players and replace them all with better options. A lot of the 'trades' included pass offs of never gunna make its...salary dumps and speculative injury recovery situations. Some of them might work out ( Pickett ) some of them are carrying long term structural weakness in their joints ( Marchbank and Kennedy - shoulders and now ankles ) even some top talent will cop injury and setback being forced to play and learn to 'endure' - which is basically at its worst, depreciating assets too fast ( Weitering maybe)

After 3 years ( which was what 66 games means ) Carlton has the beginnings of a core list of similar aged players coming through together- then you have to keep hitting draft right and build layers behind them...that is another 2-3 years of build - to get to the stage of sustainable list balance and sustainable finals appearances.

This year has set back development by at least 6 months because of injuries to key starting players and serious questions have to be asked about whether Williamson ( for example) will ever get back or Docherty's ability to get back to the kind of form he had previously - how many pre-seasons does SPS miss out on because he somehow gets injured in pre-season? How often will Marchbank cop this or that injury disrupting his continuity? Is Byrne done - does he like Sheehan just not have the body for AFL? Will Cuningham ever make it - being dropped in a side desperate for run and then getting injured in his penance game in VFL...

lots of questions for me and few answers because we have yet to see anything like best 22 on field since game one - which showed so much promise for the year...

The club also has to navigate the reality of needing to find like for like quality replacements for Simpson/Murphy/Thomas over the next 3 years - just to stand still in terms of current competitiveness - not an easy task.

I see the second half of this year answering some of the questions regarding who is already on the list and getting some sort of best 22 figured out- along with this will come marked improvement on competitiveness hopefully leading to the best pre-season ever into 2019.

The Club has to find a couple of better grade midfielders to add to the rotation mix - and targeting blokes around Cripps age is mandatory. SPS/Fisher/Dow/Cuningham will determine their own ultimate 'worth' - I am very disappointed in SPS's and Cuningham's development this year - very. Both should be more advanced and better contributors than Fisher - but they aren't.

2019 should be much better than 2018 'should be' and there is no doubt that pick #1 or 2 or 3 is handy 'currency'. People shouldn't assume 'a' Gaff will want to buy into Carlton or anyone else right now - and 2-4 really good draftees again - will not hurt the list build story. IF 'a' Gaff and 'a' Wines somehow finds their way into the list - then a more rapid push up the ladder is possible - one alone wont be enough and both would probably cost too much.

Best bet is to look to 2020 to see a serious chance of making finals...2019 should see the Club competing for a spot somewhere between 10th and 15th - but improving really fast.

 

[LanceRomance]

I disagree. This notion of “let’s go all in, right now” is at odds with the idea of sustainable list management.

You mention the age density of the list, and note how many of our players are from the last three drafts. This somehow means we need to increase the concentration of our age profile in that one 4-year block? Au contraire, we want to have a consistent pipeline of talent coming through, adding prospects every year, year after year. That means 10 years down the track, we don’t have everyone in our best 22 retiring or declining at once.

It came up last year, and the year before, how we NEED to trade all of the next year’s draft capital into this year. I’m completely baffled as to how people think this is a good idea. It’s unbalanced and myopic. You naturally keep an open mind with future picks as they grant a degree of flexibility...but that’s only in extreme circumstances, and should generally only be considered if you are getting an outrageously good deal. I wrote an unreasonably long post about the perils of trading future picks last year - not sure where it has gotten to.

A weak list such as ours gains no benefit from realizing that draft capital sooner. It’s more palatable for sides challenging for the flag with a desperately small window.

You write very well.

Very well indeed.

Curious

 

[TheRedPill]

You write very well.

Very well indeed.

Curious

Why, thank you! What’s on your mind, Lance?

 

[LordLucifer]

Carlton is not ready for free agents. Mediocre free agents are list cloggers in disguise, and gun free agents cost too much for us right now.

The thing that has been done so very right over the last couple of years is NOT investing salary cap in mature players; and instead plowing it into immediate contract extensions for kids who show what they have. We are not at the point yet where selling the farm for a bloke who has two or three good years left makes sense. If we do, at some time in that two or three years we'll lose a 22-25 year old just as good (or even two) because the money to keep him has been spent.

I'm quoting this because it is 100% correct & accurate on all fronts, well said !!

 

[LordLucifer]

I disagree. This notion of “let’s go all in, right now” is at odds with the idea of sustainable list management.

You mention the age density of the list, and note how many of our players are from the last three drafts. This somehow means we need to increase the concentration of our age profile in that one 4-year block? Au contraire, we want to have a consistent pipeline of talent coming through, adding prospects every year, year after year. That means 10 years down the track, we don’t have everyone in our best 22 retiring or declining at once.

Another great post that I'm quoting for all to see.

Clear logic & rational thinking is what will get us where we need to get to, not the kooky "smash & grab" mentality.

 

[LordLucifer]

I feel I have some experience to comment on this topic.

I stopped reading at this line.

 

[NavySteel]

Was looking through some stats this week (AFL and VFL) of our young players: Crippa, Marchy, Weits, SPS, Fisher, Dow, O'Brien, McKay, Cuners, JSOS, Charlie, Kerr... And to a limited extent at this point: Polson, Pickett...

We expect so much of these guys, and I know Bolts says that when these young guys pull on the jumper that they're expected to perform at the level that's expected... BUT - gee it's impressive!!

We talk about these guys week-in, week-out as though they're to perform as 5, 6, 7-season players. Weits down on form/confidence (remember he's a 20yo KPP), SPS (no full pre-season in his career, 21yo), JSOS not there yet (20yo). Sure criticism is warranted where due.... but under the current circumstances, our young guy's individual stats are really, really, really impressive.

Performance of young players in teams like Sydney, Crows, etc. I reckon tend to be "amplified" or "polished" because they don't have to carry the burden of real grunt work that the seasoned and hardened core players wear.

I can't remember the game (might have been after WCE), Bolts mentioned in his presser about how these players will look in 50-100 games (beyond the 66 game rebuild).

t's pretty scary how good we could be - I reckon SOS and co. have nailed most picks here in the last few drafts.

For instance, C. Curnow (13g, 10b, could easily be 20g if set shots were better), McKay (4 games so far, has kicked multiples in all but one game, 20yo!!), Fish (almost same disposals this season in half the games to last, doubled clearances in half the games (4 x factor) from last season, almost a goal a game), SPS (steadily building on stats from last season), Cripps (without a doubt, given the current circumstances, is the best inside midfielder in the AFL, and may even go close to the Charlie in a bottom-4 side), Dow (18yo at the coal-face, just think about that for a minute... Averages <70% on-field game time... wait 'til he gets to 50 games), O'Brien (looks clean so far - has the skills and tank, I reckon...), Kerr looking strong. Not to mention De Koning and Schumacher looking like good gets.

Doc to come back...

There's plenty to be excited about. I get caught up in the emotions of week-to-week games - losing hurts, but the player numbers behind it are impressive - at least 1 to 3 of the young guys are delivering good numbers. Wait 'til it's 8-10 per week - closer than we think, I reckon. I think we will see a real hardened edge under the future leadership of our club, too.

Games 66 - 100 of the rebuild will show that the green shoots will grow into a forest with bountiful amounts of fruit for which we, the Carlton faithful, have craved for so long.

Maybe I'm too optimistic. Who knows?

 

[Cripps17]

Check BF, see my thread is bumped.

Today's gonna be a good day.

 

[jd2010]

At the end of the 66 game rebuild comes the 44-66 games where we see some growth. This year we will finish last or second, go to the AFL and ask for a handout. Potentially get in picks 1 or 2 + 19 as the handout pick & 2 more 2nd round picks further down the order. Do whatever it takes to try and package up 2 of the 3 second round picks for a good 23-26 year old player.

2019: won't be anything too amazing, an extra 2-4 wins maximum (6-9 in total). Really need to start to see A or B grade level signs out of the 50 gamers who will be Lang, Weitering, Charlie Curnow, JSOS, SPS, Fisher, Marchbank, Garlett & Kennedy.

2020: Hopefully 4-6 of the 9 listed above are now in our best 6-8 players and genuine A or B graders. If that's the case this year could be where it happens and happens fast. Unsure who is in the FA pool in the 2019 offseason but we must attack that hard to compliment the 4-6 that are about to play their 60-90th games. Doesn't have to be that much go right for the 2020 season to be a 10+ win season

 

[HereComesJuddy]

At the end of the 66 game rebuild comes the 44-66 games where we see some growth. This year we will finish last or second, go to the AFL and ask for a handout. Potentially get in picks 1 or 2 + 19 as the handout pick & 2 more 2nd round picks further down the order. Do whatever it takes to try and package up 2 of the 3 second round picks for a good 23-26 year old player.

2019: won't be anything too amazing, an extra 2-4 wins maximum (6-9 in total). Really need to start to see A or B grade level signs out of the 50 gamers who will be Lang, Weitering, Charlie Curnow, JSOS, SPS, Fisher, Marchbank, Garlett & Kennedy.

2020: Hopefully 4-6 of the 9 listed above are now in our best 6-8 players and genuine A or B graders. If that's the case this year could be where it happens and happens fast. Unsure who is in the FA pool in the 2019 offseason but we must attack that hard to compliment the 4-6 that are about to play their 60-90th games. Doesn't have to be that much go right for the 2020 season to be a 10+ win season

We need a player like DeGoey. That brute half forward with skill who can play through the midfield. Id offer him big coin and give him no alternative but to pick us.

If we finish on the bottom of the ladder the possibilty of the preseason draft rears its head. It would never happen though. Offer up some 2nd round picks or if we got a mid 1st round pp send it to Collingwood. They would just have to accept it.

We aren't too far off really. We need brutes in our team. Not just in the middle like cripps etc, but causing havoc in our forward line.

DeGoey along with curnow and mckay in the forward line would bring some real excitement and muscle.

We must keep hitting the drafts each year with our 1st pick. Bring in a star each year and do some wheeling and dealing with other picks

 

[LanceRomance]

Isn't this year the last third of 66 game rebuild?

 

[LordLucifer]

When I originally developed the scope of my own personal vision of the 66 Game Rebuild I had the goal at the end of the rebuild to be to be playing in an elimination final in the 67th game.. i.e Round 1 of this year's finals.

Obviously that isnt going to happen. Now whether I was overly optimistic or the club failed to make the correct decisions to implement the rebuild (i.e trading for better/more appropriate middle aged support and spending cash on free agents which we have not done) the reason is really irrelevant.

So the club has failed to make the correct decisions to fit in with YOUR vision of the rebuild ??

Well bugger me …….

 

[jd2010]

We need a player like DeGoey. That brute half forward with skill who can play through the midfield. Id offer him big coin and give him no alternative but to pick us.

If we finish on the bottom of the ladder the possibilty of the preseason draft rears its head. It would never happen though. Offer up some 2nd round picks or if we got a mid 1st round pp send it to Collingwood. They would just have to accept it.

We aren't too far off really. We need brutes in our team. Not just in the middle like cripps etc, but causing havoc in our forward line.

DeGoey along with curnow and mckay in the forward line would bring some real excitement and muscle.

We must keep hitting the drafts each year with our 1st pick. Bring in a star each year and do some wheeling and dealing with other picks

I think we've got our version of that 50 goal mid sized forward. He just happens to be a CHF's height, Charlie Curnow. We need more quality midfielders in that 60+ game range. Right now it's Ed and Cripps, won't be long until Fisher, Dow and SPS hit that mark. We really need a couple of them to become elite. Fisher looks likely the other two it's too early to tell, 2020 is their year to make a real impact