I'll have a go at
grading it:
Offence: Striking
Conduct: Reckless = 2 points (it is difficult to sustain "intentional")
Impact: High = 3 points (he didn't break the jaw so "severe" cannot be justified)
Contact: High = 2 points (no argument there)
Total: 7 activation points, which is a Level 4 offence.
A level 4 Striking offence earns 325 demerit points, so Bazza would get 3 weeks.
Now if we grade Conduct or Impact one grade higher (which is not unreasonable), we end up with another activation point for a total of 8. Eight activation points is a level 5 offence, which earns 425 points and a 4-week suspension.
If they grade both higher (which is unlikely), then it goes straight to the Tribunal. The MRP can also elect to refer the charge straight to the Tribunal instead. Even if they did, it is unreasonable to suggest that they would seek to impose a lengthy ban "to set an example", as some people suggest. Even if it went to the tribunal, it is unlikely to end up with a significantly more serious penalty than is suggested by the points table. I think six weeks is the maximum penalty that we can expect.
So I think the penalty will be between 3 weeks (level 4 offence) and 6 weeks (handed down at the discretion of the Tribunal) with the most likely penalty 3 to 4 weeks.
For what it's worth, a few years ago Brodie Holland only got two weeks for a behind-the-play punch to the head of Paul Williams that knocked Williams to the ground. This was at a time before the current tribunal system, and the general consensus at the time was that he would get about four weeks. So don't be surprised if the offence ends up receiving less weeks than people think.