Big Cox

[Markfs]

his chances of making it are about the same as someone making accurate predictions on BF...

 

[Apex36]

his chances of making it are about the same as someone making accurate predictions on BF...

So if your prediction is accurate then he has little chance of making it, as accurate predictions on BF are scarce, but you just made this prediction on BF, so the likelihood of your prediction about him having little chance is unlikely to be accurate....

My head hurts.....

 

[Knightmare]

Round 1?
I think you are seriously underating White and overating Cox.

Cox should be good for some games later in the year, but, from the VFL clips ive seen, (which i admit is limited) no way is he ready now, and no way is he ahead of White in the pecking order.
If Reid is in the backline, then White is the only person i have confidence in to be a consistent contributor in that 2nd tall forward position (even given his limitations). Howe might be able to do it if he plays big for his size, and Moore will hopefully start getting there by the 2nd half of the year - but right now if we want to win games: that spot belongs to White until someone overtakes him... And i dont think Cox will be that guy.
And if we want to use Cox because he's better as the 2nd ruck - then surely Witts trumps him there?

I'm not going to write Cox off. I know he is working so until I see him through the preseason, I'm open minded to what he can offer.

White is VFL standard, so I wouldn't be playing him at all. Same story with Gault. There is no point wasting games on them when Grundy, Moore, Witts and Cox all have the ability to have careers at AFL level.

In terms of Cox v Witts. I expect Cox in 2016 to challenge Witts for that second ruck position in a big way. Witts has voiced that he is working to have a big preseason and fully intends to be a long term player for Collingwood, so that's terrific, but Cox, there is enough there where given the work he is putting in, which is thought to be as much as anyone at the club, that can bring results. Cox's improvement last season was rapid in skill development, ground coverage, learning to take marks, build a 1v1 game and convert from his set shots. So my expectation is that Cox continues adding to his game and continuing his advancement.

White I just don't see of usefulness to winning. He doesn't get it done against good opposition, so we may as well have Darcy Moore taking his spot in the side as someone who long term projects to develop into a long term, high level piece.

 

[Jelly Bean]

I'm not going to write Cox off. I know he is working so until I see him through the preseason, I'm open minded to what he can offer.

White is VFL standard, so I wouldn't be playing him at all. Same story with Gault. There is no point wasting games on them when Grundy, Moore, Witts and Cox all have the ability to have careers at AFL level.

In terms of Cox v Witts. I expect Cox in 2016 to challenge Witts for that second ruck position in a big way. Witts has voiced that he is working to have a big preseason and fully intends to be a long term player for Collingwood, so that's terrific, but Cox, there is enough there where given the work he is putting in, which is thought to be as much as anyone at the club, that can bring results. Cox's improvement last season was rapid in skill development, ground coverage, learning to take marks, build a 1v1 game and convert from his set shots. So my expectation is that Cox continues adding to his game and continuing his advancement.

White I just don't see of usefulness to winning. He doesn't get it done against good opposition, so we may as well have Darcy Moore taking his spot in the side as someone who long term projects to develop into a long term, high level piece.

There is big gap between writing Cox off and saying you'd have him in the side from round 1. I think most would believe he absolutely shouldn't be written off, but probably has a way to go to become AFL ready. Whether that is half a season, one season, or two seasons obviously varies a bit.

You say White is VFL standard, but obviously so is Cox. White's AFL numbers last year are better than Cox's VFL numbers. I think all on the list are in front of Gault.

 

[TradeDraft]

I would have given him a game at the end of last year, but think we need to see how he goes in the nab challenge before considering him for round 1, the 40th list spot or the one opened with Scharenberg's knee.

The preseason games will give him a taste, without gifting a game. If he shows he can handle the step up I'd have first in line for one if the rookie promotions.

Coxy playing in the NAB Challange vs the Scum and did look quite good.

Beat Warnock

 

[TradeDraft]

I agree with Moore not having ruck minutes, but dont agree with him as 2nd tall - because last year showed hes clearly not ready for that yet- which is why I am still convinced that that spot belongs to White (unless Reid is used up forward) until someone steps up to show they are a better option (maybe Howe playing big, maybe Moore in 6 months time).

My forward line would have White as 2nd KPF/2nd ruck, with Moore as 3rd tall F. If Moore is ready to take more responsibility up forward, or if Witts (maybe Cox) becomes a decent combo-Fwd option, then I would drop White - but I dont see either option being better than White at this stage.

So we still have no Number 2 Tall Forward?

Moore lookee very good and with big Injury Free Pre-Season he be ready for RD1

 

[Knightmare]

There is big gap between writing Cox off and saying you'd have him in the side from round 1. I think most would believe he absolutely shouldn't be written off, but probably has a way to go to become AFL ready. Whether that is half a season, one season, or two seasons obviously varies a bit.

You say White is VFL standard, but obviously so is Cox. White's AFL numbers last year are better than Cox's VFL numbers. I think all on the list are in front of Gault.

With Cox my view regarding round one is gauge based on preseason form, with performance being what will get him into the senior side. I'm not counting him out as a possible round one debutante. A more conservative guess is he'll play some senior games around the mid season mark. But my expectation is we'll see Cox in the seniors next season at some point, and I give him a chance to make a position in the senior side his.

With White I look at him from the perspective of.. are we likely to win or contend for a flag next season? I don't believe we will. If we do, then I feel very strongly that it will be on the back of the development of our youth with our mid-career to older guys other than the higher level types those that will be the reason for the push up the ladder. Overall I see the most valuable age demographic on our list being those born 1992 and later. Cox is a 1991 boy, but given his late start he may as well be clustered into that broader group. My overall point is it's that age group with Grundy, Moore, Treloar, De Goey, Elliott, Maynard, Williams, Adams, Langdon etc who will be the most influential in our potential run at a next flag, with Pendlebury, Cloke and maybe Reid with some luck having the longevity to hang around while those younger guys hit their peaks, and I'd select very heavily around that theme with the obvious result being low level mid-late career types such as White, Macaffer and Blair certainly and if suitable alternatives are available Goldsack and Toovey also need to be passed by. If those guys aren't all being pushed out by stronger performing young players, then we will fail in building a team capable of delivering premiership #16.

So it's not so much whether White is outperforming Cox. Or White outperforming Witts or Moore. It's about identifying who on our list can be a part of our next run at a flag and giving those guys games. Part of that is looking at those with that requisite talent, part of it is looking at those who is putting in the work and making those strides. Those younger guys who tick those boxes absolutely need to be given regular senior games and be given every opportunity because we're not a top 8 team with White in the side, or Macaffer as a tagger. We need much better than that.
And in comparing Cox v White based on this criteria. Cox is working his butt off, maybe more so than anyone else on our list, and at his height, that's a point of difference. Cox is younger and of the two the guy who is taking the strides. So given that I'd play Cox every day of the week ahead of White as while his round one or two performance probably won't be as good, if given enough games Cox's round 16-23 performances given his rate of improvement I'd speculate probably will be better, with significant separation able to be made by Cox.

 

[Pera]

You can have the biggest Cox ya want but its all about how you use him

 

[AmellyPies]

Coxy playing in the NAB Challange vs the Scum and did look quite good.

Beat Warnock

Blair could beat Warnock lol.

 

[MagpieBat]

Coxy playing in the NAB Challange vs the Scum and did look quite good.

Beat Warnock

A termite-ridden wooden fence post could beat Warnock.

 

[Jelly Bean]

With Cox my view regarding round one is gauge based on preseason form, with performance being what will get him into the senior side. I'm not counting him out as a possible round one debutante. A more conservative guess is he'll play some senior games around the mid season mark. But my expectation is we'll see Cox in the seniors next season at some point, and I give him a chance to make a position in the senior side his.

With White I look at him from the perspective of.. are we likely to win or contend for a flag next season? I don't believe we will. If we do, then I feel very strongly that it will be on the back of the development of our youth with our mid-career to older guys other than the higher level types those that will be the reason for the push up the ladder. Overall I see the most valuable age demographic on our list being those born 1992 and later. Cox is a 1991 boy, but given his late start he may as well be clustered into that broader group. My overall point is it's that age group with Grundy, Moore, Treloar, De Goey, Elliott, Maynard, Williams, Adams, Langdon etc who will be the most influential in our potential run at a next flag, with Pendlebury, Cloke and maybe Reid with some luck having the longevity to hang around while those younger guys hit their peaks, and I'd select very heavily around that theme with the obvious result being low level mid-late career types such as White, Macaffer and Blair certainly and if suitable alternatives are available Goldsack and Toovey also need to be passed by. If those guys aren't all being pushed out by stronger performing young players, then we will fail in building a team capable of delivering premiership #16.

So it's not so much whether White is outperforming Cox. Or White outperforming Witts or Moore. It's about identifying who on our list can be a part of our next run at a flag and giving those guys games. Part of that is looking at those with that requisite talent, part of it is looking at those who is putting in the work and making those strides. Those younger guys who tick those boxes absolutely need to be given regular senior games and be given every opportunity because we're not a top 8 team with White in the side, or Macaffer as a tagger. We need much better than that.
And in comparing Cox v White based on this criteria. Cox is working his butt off, maybe more so than anyone else on our list, and at his height, that's a point of difference. Cox is younger and of the two the guy who is taking the strides. So given that I'd play Cox every day of the week ahead of White as while his round one or two performance probably won't be as good, if given enough games Cox's round 16-23 performances given his rate of improvement I'd speculate probably will be better, with significant separation able to be made by Cox.

I agree with your assessment of horizon absolutely, but I just don't think the selection committee would be as bold as we'd like them to be. One part of me feels like we should be looking to select only players who would be part of that contention period unless absolutely necessary which would mean not selecting the likes of Goldsack, Macaffer, Toovey, Blair, and yes - even White.

But I just don't think they will do that, as if would cost 2016 wins. These guys will continue to get games to contribute to our win total I believe and give us the best chance at finals.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

White certainly has his critics, but his numbers as a fwd/ruck stack up well.

I think some of the criticism is a bit unfair and comes down to a mix of expectation given his athleticism plus team balance and frustration with overhead marking.

With another tall forward in the side and an acceptance that he'll never be a star he wouldn't cop as much flack.

As you say he's in the 22 until someone forces him out.

White is ok,he's biggest draw back is that he lacks a bit of footy smarts, but he's ok. Never great but ok.
To me the big issue is having a really good second big to allow Cloke to be supported, that's the key to Cloke being the monster he can be

 

[Hva sher a]

I agree with Moore not having ruck minutes, but dont agree with him as 2nd tall - because last year showed hes clearly not ready for that yet- which is why I am still convinced that that spot belongs to White (unless Reid is used up forward) until someone steps up to show they are a better option (maybe Howe playing big, maybe Moore in 6 months time).

My forward line would have White as 2nd KPF/2nd ruck, with Moore as 3rd tall F. If Moore is ready to take more responsibility up forward, or if Witts (maybe Cox) becomes a decent combo-Fwd option, then I would drop White - but I dont see either option being better than White at this stage.

Classifying players as 2nd talls 3rd talls is misleading. The reality is that opposition defences will decide who is the primary threat and assign their most appropriate defender and so on.

 

[76woodenspooners]

The biggest challenge for him is learning to read the play.
Plenty of players who have played the game for their entire life still don't read the play like the naturally gifted do.
Because of this challenge I really cannot see him making a career out of AFL football.
I wish him the best, but Premierships are not built on new to the game athletes.

The game is evolving so quickly, strategies change, and the difference between the top and lower tiers of the competition is greater than ever ...

... Would have thought any instincts that a kid develops about being able to read the play would be tossed out the window when they join an AFL club.

That's evident with clubs sometimes developing players out of position, or playing them in a different position to what they played in development.

From a gamesense point of view, I'd reckon what counts is a player's ability to learn quickly, follow instruction, stay focused, understand tactics and strategy, be adaptable.

IMO, where growing up with the game mostly helps is with skill development (marking, kicking, handballing) and the man-on-man stuff (contested marking, sticking a tackle, breaking a tackle, getting around a man)

 

[76woodenspooners]

And all I said was that it is too soon to get excited, thats all, then came examples of other international payers that have, which IMO proves little. End.

Some folks (including me) had a chat with Hine after the member's forum, and to say he was super excited about Cox's potential in 2016 would be a tad of an understatement.

I've learnt not to take Hine's predictions as gospel (eg: I remember him being overly bullish about Witts in his first season), but still, it's one that's worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Maggie5]

Some folks (including me) had a chat with Hine after the member's forum, and to say he was super excited about Cox's potential in 2016 would be a tad of an understatement.

I've learnt not to take Hine's predictions as gospel (eg: I remember him being overly bullish about Witts in his first season), but still, it's one that's worth keeping an eye on.

I don't doubt that he may have potential but just don't believe he is ready to be upgraded (Scharenberg).
Just my opinion from what I have seen to date and I don't see him in our best 30.

Not saying he has does not have potential, nor that there hasn't been improvement.

Don't know who would make way for him at this stage as I also differ regarding opinions re White.

My disappointment with White has been that he has been unable to kick those crucial goals when needed but then so has Cloke, yet on the other hand kicks goals that one thought he couldn't get.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I don't doubt that he may have potential but just don't believe he is ready to be upgraded (Scharenberg).
Just my opinion from what I have seen to date and I don't see him in our best 30.

Not saying he has does not have potential, nor that there hasn't been improvement.

Don't know who would make way for him at this stage as I also differ regarding opinions re White.

My disappointment with White has been that he has been unable to kick those crucial goals when needed but then so has Cloke, yet on the other hand kicks goals that one thought he couldn't get.

I guess the problem with preseason is ...

... it's a bit like racing cows round the moon.

We can follow the leaderboard until the cows hit the dark side. And after that we are forced to follow the form guide / read the tea leaves / guess, and in reality we have little idea which 22 cows are going to appear first out of the dark side (Pendlebury? - tick, Swan? - noice!, Crisp? - WTF!)

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Some folks (including me) had a chat with Hine after the member's forum, and to say he was super excited about Cox's potential in 2016 would be a tad of an understatement.

I've learnt not to take Hine's predictions as gospel (eg: I remember him being overly bullish about Witts in his first season), but still, it's one that's worth keeping an eye on.

The super talls are like rare diamonds.
Sometimes they need a polish but they are still diamonds.

That's why people get excited about them. Real height is a special advantage.

Sometimes they do turn out to be glass, then you break it, toss in bin, move on.

I'm very bullish that we have three potential top ruckmen.
Grundy
Witts
Cox

Hard to get and Im perplexed some would give away too quickly this advantage.
Too the clubs that lack big boys, stiff.

Even hawthorn now with hale retiring have an OK McEvoy, and Ceglar (sorry whilst I chuckle quietly) and the tunnel ball expert, Fitzpatrick (he was cheap but he's very average)
Am certain if hawthorn was given option here take out three and we take their three they would swap quicker than Bruce dribbles etc when he sees Rioli

 

[Saintly Viewed]

You can have the biggest Cox ya want but its all about how you use him

There is a lot of wisdom there.

Ahhh the Cox value to these boards is invaluable

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I have a simple 2016 thought

If the foursome Blair, Goldsack, Macaffer and Toovey are playing regular senior footy together something has gone terribly wrong.

Either of or combination:

Injury list very large
Youngsters haven't come on
We are not that good

Place White as a separate category, if gets regular senior footy, see above, or something has clicked and he's better than we thought. Hmmmmmm
He's ok, but lacks footy smarts.

If we are a top team, likely white is watching from Victoria park

 

[SideysBottom]

Cox will become a good forward option for Collingwood, probably more equipped to be a focal point than Jesse White or Jeremy Howe due to his size, but totally different player to anybody we have in waiting. I like his attitude already and with a couple of senior games under his belt, I think he will become a regular AFL player who will play over 100 games. I would like to see him in the 23 guernsey when he finally makes his debut, reckon he would suit the number similarly as Buddy Franklin did at Hawthorn, and the sales would be Jordanesque like.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Cox will become a good forward option for Collingwood, probably more equipped to be a focal point than Jesse White or Jeremy Howe due to his size, but totally different player to anybody we have in waiting. I like his attitude already and with a couple of senior games under his belt, I think he will become a regular AFL player who will play over 100 games. I would like to see him in the 23 guernsey when he finally makes his debut, reckon he would suit the number similarly as Buddy Franklin did at Hawthorn, and the sales would be Jordanesque like.

Howe differing role - he will come from the flanks I imagine, fly around, challenge Elliot for mark of the year.
Cox will just stick his big mitts up and grab loose balls

 

[Knightmare]

I agree with your assessment of horizon absolutely, but I just don't think the selection committee would be as bold as we'd like them to be. One part of me feels like we should be looking to select only players who would be part of that contention period unless absolutely necessary which would mean not selecting the likes of Goldsack, Macaffer, Toovey, Blair, and yes - even White.

But I just don't think they will do that, as if would cost 2016 wins. These guys will continue to get games to contribute to our win total I believe and give us the best chance at finals.

Selection will be interesting.

Even from a win in 2016 perspective while the club probably as you suggest won't be so bold, I'd back the younger guys in over Goldsack/Toovey/Blair/White/Macaffer and while it may early season mean an extra loss or two, I'd back the team in to have a stronger best 22 by seasons end once these younger guys get the games into them at AFL level.

As an example team we could go into round one with, with a view towards playing guys who may play in our next premiership team:
B: Brayden Maynard Nathan Brown Jonathon Marsh
HB: Tom Langdon Ben Reid Marley Williams
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Jordan De Goey Adam Treloar
HF: Jeremy Howe Travis Cloke Jack Crisp
F: Alex Fasolo Darcy Moore Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Scott Pendlebury Dane Swan
BENCH: Jarrod Witts Taylor Adams Tim Broomhead James Aish
To also receive regular senior games: Tom Phillips, Mason Cox, Levi Greenwood, Travis Varcoe, Jackson Ramsay, Brayden Sier (if ready later in the season), Jack Frost and Adam Oxley. With Matthew Scharenberg back in senior calculations for 2017.

Those born in 1994 and later should experience rapid development with senior games and with the development they would be able to get from those games, the late season result I'd expect to be a top 8 finish with a team more finals ready than a team utilising Macaffer/White/Blair/Goldsack/Toovey still, as they should if these young guys get full AFL seasons be surpassed by the younger talents who have relatively more dominating points of difference from an AFL play context. Tom Phillips while I couldn't quite squeeze him into that best 22, from this recent AFL draft I give him a strong chance to do a Langdon and become a regular early season and be a big part of what we do in his own right. So the young talent is there for this type of selection strategy to be viable.

It's just I lean towards your opinion that the club will play it too conservatively at the selection table and continue to show reluctance as they have in the past few seasons to push young guys past these older types who aren't dominating at their various positions.

I'll be pushing hard for the very opposite approach though with my confidence in our youth there with the talent and character in that wider group all there for them to surpass some of the clubs older role playing types.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

A termite-ridden wooden fence post could beat Warnock.

Now now, a termite ridden wooden post is being under rated by you.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

With Cox my view regarding round one is gauge based on preseason form, with performance being what will get him into the senior side. I'm not counting him out as a possible round one debutante. A more conservative guess is he'll play some senior games around the mid season mark. But my expectation is we'll see Cox in the seniors next season at some point, and I give him a chance to make a position in the senior side his.

With White I look at him from the perspective of.. are we likely to win or contend for a flag next season? I don't believe we will. If we do, then I feel very strongly that it will be on the back of the development of our youth with our mid-career to older guys other than the higher level types those that will be the reason for the push up the ladder. Overall I see the most valuable age demographic on our list being those born 1992 and later. Cox is a 1991 boy, but given his late start he may as well be clustered into that broader group. My overall point is it's that age group with Grundy, Moore, Treloar, De Goey, Elliott, Maynard, Williams, Adams, Langdon etc who will be the most influential in our potential run at a next flag, with Pendlebury, Cloke and maybe Reid with some luck having the longevity to hang around while those younger guys hit their peaks, and I'd select very heavily around that theme with the obvious result being low level mid-late career types such as White, Macaffer and Blair certainly and if suitable alternatives are available Goldsack and Toovey also need to be passed by. If those guys aren't all being pushed out by stronger performing young players, then we will fail in building a team capable of delivering premiership #16.

So it's not so much whether White is outperforming Cox. Or White outperforming Witts or Moore. It's about identifying who on our list can be a part of our next run at a flag and giving those guys games. Part of that is looking at those with that requisite talent, part of it is looking at those who is putting in the work and making those strides. Those younger guys who tick those boxes absolutely need to be given regular senior games and be given every opportunity because we're not a top 8 team with White in the side, or Macaffer as a tagger. We need much better than that.
And in comparing Cox v White based on this criteria. Cox is working his butt off, maybe more so than anyone else on our list, and at his height, that's a point of difference. Cox is younger and of the two the guy who is taking the strides. So given that I'd play Cox every day of the week ahead of White as while his round one or two performance probably won't be as good, if given enough games Cox's round 16-23 performances given his rate of improvement I'd speculate probably will be better, with significant separation able to be made by Cox.

Im sorry but I still think you are grossly undervaluing White, and clearly we won't be able to agree on that.

I understand Whites limitations, and i can see why a lot of fans dont value him, but the reality (IMO) is that none of those other guys dont come close to providing what White does at this point.

I agree with the general concept of planning for the future - but players have to show their worth. Give youngsters a couple of games here or there when they are ready, and if they show value - they stay- if they don't they get dropped and wait til their next turn.
If someone younger comes in and plays as good as White, or even provides 90% of his production, then sure keep him in the team and that would clearly be the better long term option.
But if someone is only able to provide 60-70% of Whites value, even if younger and having "potential" - then no we cannot afford to keep playing him regularly at the expense of a senior player.