Universal Love Big ****ing Dix!!!!!!!!!!!!

agmsy

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Funnily enough he’s probably had enough opportunities to average 2 goals per game.

If not for, you know, his accuracy
Has he? I don't have data on "shots" that go out on the full or drop short, or on disposals/passes where he could reasonably have been expected to take a shot instead, but he's kicked 6.8 across five games. A couple of those stand out as shockers (like his lean-back snap and miss from the top of the square), but I think it's too small a sample to be making grand, sweeping statements about his accuracy.

How does expected score rate those 14 scoring shots, and what probability does it assign a return of, say, 9.5 (1.8 goals per game) or better?
 

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Pappagallo

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Has he? I don't have data on "shots" that go out on the full or drop short, or on disposals/passes where he could reasonably have been expected to take a shot instead, but he's kicked 6.8 across five games. A couple of those stand out as shockers (like his lean-back snap and miss from the top of the square), but I think it's too small a sample to be making grand, sweeping statements about his accuracy.

How does expected score rate those 14 scoring shots, and what probability does it assign a return of, say, 9.5 (1.8 goals per game) or better?
Lol it’s hardly a grand sweeping statement when he’s averaging less than 50% of shots that register a score.

I don’t even know why this is in dispute. Just watch his shots, they’re shaky at best right now. It’s possible for both him AND the system to concurrently suck so there’s no need to plant a flag here.
 

ploppy

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we should play to dixon's strengths. he is strong and likes to wrestle more the lead up the wing..so tell him to stay in the goal square and wrestle for the ball. he will win more than he loses. the ones he loses just make sure he punches the defender in the back of the head..they will soon get sick of being near him.
 

Pappagallo

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Then how do you account for his accuracy in the SANFL, where he's kicked 5.2, 3.2, and 3.1?
I haven’t watched any of these games so I don’t know what the discrepancy is. Weaker opposition? Easier shots? Less pressure? I dunno. I’m sure someone like RossFC could shed some light on it.

Does it matter though? Andrew Moore and Jimmy Toumpas were routinely clocking up 30+ disposal games in the SANFL but for one reason or another they never translated into similar AFL performances.

To be clear I’m not advocating for Dixon to be out of the side. We need him (badly) and I think he’s competed reasonably well since his return. But for some reason his AFL goalkicking has been very very average.
 

RossFC

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I haven’t watched any of these games so I don’t know what the discrepancy is. Weaker opposition? Easier shots? Less pressure? I dunno. I’m sure someone like RossFC could shed some light on it.

Does it matter though? Andrew Moore and Jimmy Toumpas were routinely clocking up 30+ disposal games in the SANFL but for one reason or another they never translated into similar AFL performances.

To be clear I’m not advocating for Dixon to be out of the side. We need him (badly) and I think he’s competed reasonably well since his return. But for some reason his AFL goalkicking has been very very average.
Level of opposition plays a part but I feel like our kicking inside 50 at SANFL level is better too.

Also Dixon has Hayes, Ladhams and Marshall to help free him up.

At AFL level he'd have just Howard.
 

agmsy

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Weaker opposition? Easier shots? Less pressure?
Easier shots come about partly through structure, and I'm sure there's a decent benefit in having other genuine talls to work off (and occupy defenders).

Does it matter though? Andrew Moore and Jimmy Toumpas were routinely clocking up 30+ disposal games in the SANFL but for one reason or another they never translated into similar AFL performances.
I think it matters. Yes, SANFL is a different (slower, and easier) game than AFL, which is why a bunch of one-paced plodders look like stars in the SANFL but can't handle the AFL.

The act/art of kicking for goal, though, is the same at basically every level of football. If his shots look ok in the SANFL but shaky in the AFL, it's worth drilling down into the differences between the two.

All I'm saying is that it's worth considering the effects of those differences. Bigger/stronger/better defenders, always facing multiple opponents because we don't play multiple tall forwards in the AFL, terrible forward entries in the AFL, and a marked increase in pace and workrate that expose the lack of fitness and conditioning typical of a player returning from an injury such as Dixon's. They're all likely to negatively affect his goal kicking.

But for some reason his AFL goalkicking has been very very average.
Yes. That reason, or, rather, those reasons, being structure, fitness, and his injury.
 

Pappagallo

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Easier shots come about partly through structure, and I'm sure there's a decent benefit in having other genuine talls to work off (and occupy defenders).



I think it matters. Yes, SANFL is a different (slower, and easier) game than AFL, which is why a bunch of one-paced plodders look like stars in the SANFL but can't handle the AFL.

The act/art of kicking for goal, though, is the same at basically every level of football. If his shots look ok in the SANFL but shaky in the AFL, it's worth drilling down into the differences between the two.

All I'm saying is that it's worth considering the effects of those differences. Bigger/stronger/better defenders, always facing multiple opponents because we don't play multiple tall forwards in the AFL, terrible forward entries in the AFL, and a marked increase in pace and workrate that expose the lack of fitness and conditioning typical of a player returning from an injury such as Dixon's. They're all likely to negatively affect his goal kicking.



Yes. That reason, or, rather, those reasons, being structure, fitness, and his injury.
And/or higher stakes. And/or pressure. And/or confidence.

There probably are many factors at play outside of Dixon’s control but once he has the ball it’s mostly on him.

It’s wrong to say that the art of goalkicking is basically the same at all levels because you don’t have tens of thousands of people watching you do it unless you’re playing in the AFL and sometimes players struggle with the pressure of that. Anyone can be King Carey at their local park.
 

Magus

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He hasn't run a half marathon before he has a shot for goal in the sanfl.
This is essentially it. The coaches and players talk about how they're putting a lot of work into goal practice but it doesn't carry over well into games because they're usually gassed. A more efficient gameplan would improve an awful lot.
 

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Ford Fairlane

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He hasn’t run one in the 1st quarter either. I’m all for lancing Ol’ Mate Ken but he’s not solely to blame here.
It's not lancing Ken, plenty of forwards cover a lot of territory.

However, if we are talking about this year, he has come back from a limited preparation including a couple of sanfl games where he didn't cover a lot of territory, back to full on AFL level running.

He's not a terrible shot for goal, last year he kicked 26.24 which was his worst return in terms of accuracy percentage for scoring shots. He's over 63% career accuracy.
 

Jason K

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He hasn’t run one in the 1st quarter either. I’m all for lancing Ol’ Mate Ken but he’s not solely to blame here.
Are you saying a 400m sprint in the 1st Q wouldn't have him blowing hard? If he's got a heardt rate over say 160 when he gets the ball and he only has 30 seconds to kick, his heart rate is still going to be over 100 when he's taking his shot and his breathing will be affecting his focus. It's the reason the league accuracy has dropped off with the 30 seconds. Add to this his lack of preseason (base fitness), the fact he's a big lad that always recovered heart rate slowly (guessing this on the basis he's the only player to ever be called to play on for taking 29 seconds to take his shot) and the lack of confidence in the whole sqaud and I am surprised he's kicked 6 from his 14 shots.
 

TeeKray

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The biggest concern above all else with Dixon is the amount of marks he drops. And I'm not talking about marks where the ball has been kicked on top of his head and he's got three opponents hanging off him, I'm talking about the marks he drops when he gets two clean hands to the ball and it just bounces off. This happens at least 3-4 times a game. It's not good enough.
 

Pappagallo

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Are you saying a 400m sprint in the 1st Q wouldn't have him blowing hard? If he's got a heardt rate over say 160 when he gets the ball and he only has 30 seconds to kick, his heart rate is still going to be over 100 when he's taking his shot and his breathing will be affecting his focus. It's the reason the league accuracy has dropped off with the 30 seconds. Add to this his lack of preseason (base fitness), the fact he's a big lad that always recovered heart rate slowly (guessing this on the basis he's the only player to ever be called to play on for taking 29 seconds to take his shot) and the lack of confidence in the whole sqaud and I am surprised he's kicked 6 from his 14 shots.
He isn’t doing a 400m sprint in the 1st quarter or any other quarter. He would be doing shorter sprints broken up by less intense running/jogging and periods of rests during stoppages.

So no, he shouldn’t be gassed in Q1.
 

edgie

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It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?


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Magus

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It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?


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Ken hasn't really given it a proper go.
 

MrPlow

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What an absolute disgrace. Other side of the ground but similar to the Wines angle in the Showdown last year.

This Stevie J kicking action from right in front of goals is so ****** s**t. Just drop punt it you *******ers.
View attachment 710243
Jesus Christ I didn’t realise the angle from the western stand. Either that or I just didn’t care

But wow, I’d say the man is nearly mentally shot now too
 

Rendaw

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Just checked this thread.... are people seriously bashing Dixon for our forward performance?

Dixon hasn't been perfect but our forward line structure is the worst in the league. To blame him for poor performance when he has 3-4 players hanging off him while bombing it onto his head is ridiculous.
 

Fivepots

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Just checked this thread.... are people seriously bashing Dixon for our forward performance?

Dixon hasn't been perfect but our forward line structure is the worst in the league. To blame him for poor performance when he has 3-4 players hanging off him while bombing it onto his head is ridiculous.

Spot on buddy our structure up front is krindgeworthy "who in charge of this" FknBssetcrow
 

MrPlow

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Just checked this thread.... are people seriously bashing Dixon for our forward performance?

Dixon hasn't been perfect but our forward line structure is the worst in the league. To blame him for poor performance when he has 3-4 players hanging off him while bombing it onto his head is ridiculous.
I’ve said it before, Dixon isn’t helped by our abysmal lack of forward structure. Dixon is not to blame in that respect

But...

Dixon can be blamed for constantly running under the ball, dropping gettable marks and missing rudimental set shots.

What was his kicking stat last year? Something like 35% scoring shot accuracy? Meaning 65% of his shots either went out on the fall or through for a behind. Ridiculous.

Yes, Dixon can’t be blamed for our forward woes, but he certainly can’t be praised either.

And all this talk about how Dixon is coming back from a significant injury so we should cut him some slack... I completely agree on a personal level.

But from a club level, if he isn’t fit enough to perform to the required standard, then should he really be playing? It’s not enough to “try hard” or “be a good bloke”. We are talking about the highest league of football in Australia here, not everyone’s a winner Auskick
 

agmsy

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Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?
Won't know if we never try.

For what it's worth, in the SANFL:
  • Round 9: Dixon 5.2, Marshall 1.1
  • Round 10: Dixon 3.2, Frampton 2.0, Hayes 2.0
  • Round 15: Dixon 3.1, Ladhams 3.1, Marshall 2.1, Hayes 1.0
So, other talls have still been scoring with Dixon in the seconds.

But from a club level, if he isn’t fit enough to perform to the required standard, then should he really be playing?
There's only so much match fitness you can develop or recover in the twos.
 

MrPlow

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I’ve said it before, Dixon isn’t helped by our abysmal lack of forward structure. Dixon is not to blame in that respect

But...

Dixon can be blamed for constantly running under the ball, dropping gettable marks and missing rudimental set shots.

What was his kicking stat last year? Something like 35% scoring shot accuracy? Meaning 65% of his shots either went out on the fall or through for a behind. Ridiculous.

Yes, Dixon can’t be blamed for our forward woes, but he certainly can’t be praised either.

And all this talk about how Dixon is coming back from a significant injury so we should cut him some slack... I completely agree on a personal level.

But from a club level, if he isn’t fit enough to perform to the required standard, then should he really be playing? It’s not enough to “try hard” or “be a good bloke”. We are talking about the highest league of football in Australia here, not everyone’s a winner Auskick
Just to be clear on this

Charlie gets himself in a position to take 3 or so shots a game. If he at least nailed 2 of those on average I wouldn’t be complaining
 

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