Universal Love Big ****ing Dix!!!!!!!!!!!!

Andre

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It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?


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He was bog average as a KPF, but hardly a coincidence Tredrea having Catdog and often Lade resting forward in 2004 to help him was his best year and our only AFL flag.
 

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Rendaw

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I’ve said it before, Dixon isn’t helped by our abysmal lack of forward structure. Dixon is not to blame in that respect

But...

Dixon can be blamed for constantly running under the ball, dropping gettable marks and missing rudimental set shots.

What was his kicking stat last year? Something like 35% scoring shot accuracy? Meaning 65% of his shots either went out on the fall or through for a behind. Ridiculous.

Yes, Dixon can’t be blamed for our forward woes, but he certainly can’t be praised either.

And all this talk about how Dixon is coming back from a significant injury so we should cut him some slack... I completely agree on a personal level.

But from a club level, if he isn’t fit enough to perform to the required standard, then should he really be playing? It’s not enough to “try hard” or “be a good bloke”. We are talking about the highest league of football in Australia here, not everyone’s a winner Auskick
It’s almost impossible for any KPF to live up to our expectations after Tredrea. Dixon drops gettable marks, he misses easy set shots but just imagine if we didn’t have him at all. Sam Gray has been our KPF more times than I want to remember.

We need a big presence to take the heat off our other guys which is what he does BUT we don’t play enough other KPF options for our players to kick to so it becomes too predictable.

I agree if he isn’t fit to play then don’t play him but he is the best we have right now and that is our administrations fault not his.
 
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edgie

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He was bog average as a KPF, but hardly a coincidence Tredrea having Catdog and often Lade resting forward in 2004 to help him was his best year and our only AFL flag.
Yes. He had Cornes and Lade or another ruck forward before 2004 as well.


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Moo87

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Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

Dixon goal kicking.png


I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.
 

Butters Made Me Do It

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His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot).
Does it take conditions into account? Check some Docklands based forwards maybe

Charles only started playing this season mid-winter, which included the deluge vs the dogs
 

Moo87

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Does it take conditions into account? Check some Docklands based forwards maybe

Charles only started playing this season mid-winter, which included the deluge vs the dogs
Good point. I can't see it mentioned anywhere so I doubt it does, which probably skews the picture somewhat given the large differences in rain affected games from team to team. Dixon kicked 2.2 against the Bulldogs with two other misses, so 33% accuracy for that game.

For comparison his accuracy was 43% last year, with his overall scoring 14% below expected (essentially 5 goals over the season).
 

Hammer#8

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Some of his games in 2017 were Tredrea-like, hes been disappointing in parts but has largely been set-up to fail also.

What on-field group at our club aren't playing in a broken system that runs hot and cold, besides our backline maybe?
 
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Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

View attachment 718532

I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.
This here shows the real issue. No deep entries, no shots closish to goal and no shots from in front other than 50 out. Have a look at the better key forwards like Hawkins at the moment - he gets chances from easy shots as well as hard to kick spots. How do you get some confidence as a big KPF if you never get the ball in any decent spots? Its no wonder he's struggling for confidence.
 

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carnthemaggies

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It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?


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I often wonder whether the best size for a key forward is 193-195 rather than going with the blokes who are 197-200. If you think of the recent elite forwards or combinations most have been the guys the size of tredrea, carey etc. Their strength and mobility is a key feature of their forward play. The really tall forwards - I'm not sure?
 

MrPlow

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Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

View attachment 718532

I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.
Thank you
This is exactly what I was referring to
 

edgie

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I often wonder whether the best size for a key forward is 193-195 rather than going with the blokes who are 197-200. If you think of the recent elite forwards or combinations most have been the guys the size of tredrea, carey etc. Their strength and mobility is a key feature of their forward play. The really tall forwards - I'm not sure?
People carry on like the real tall forwards are a new thing, but Paul Salmom was getting about in the 80s.

196 is plenty IF they know how to play forward. I think it's interesting now that tall midfielders are in fashion. I think the best KPP may come from country areas in the future where they are still tall enough for those positions and learn to play them rather than the city areas where tall kids may end up in the middle.


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El_Scorcho

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Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

View attachment 718532

I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.
Lots of high percentage shots generated by the old gameplan on this chart isn't there?
 

El_Scorcho

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It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?
The only 2 genuine KPFs that Ken has consistently selected when available throughout his tenure are Schulz and Dixon, who crossed over for about 7 games when Schulz's body was gone.

What's your endgame here though Edgie? What should we be doing differently? Hypothetically should we not have traded for Dixon? Should we trade him now? Is someone else going to do a better job?
 

Moo87

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This here shows the real issue. No deep entries, no shots closish to goal and no shots from in front other than 50 out. Have a look at the better key forwards like Hawkins at the moment - he gets chances from easy shots as well as hard to kick spots. How do you get some confidence as a big KPF if you never get the ball in any decent spots? Its no wonder he's struggling for confidence.
For comparison, here's the chart for Hawkins over the same time period. Obviously there's a pretty small sample size for all involved.


718672
 

Schulzenfest

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While it's good that the graph does take expected accuracy into account, it's still not perfect. It's still gonna favour players who get lots of high percentage shots. For example, if Dixon has a low percentage shot at goal with a 'league average' success rate of 18% and he stuffs it, that would still put him at '18% behind league average' for that shot. If you get a high percentage shot with a league average success rate of 82% and you convert it, that puts you 18% above league average.

I mean he’s definitely not an accurate forward but hes definitely got a bunch of factors not helping him
Definitely not an accurate forward now, under Hinkley and Bassett. Again, he was a very accurate forward at the Gold Coast. 41.15 in his last season there.
 

edgie

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The only 2 genuine KPFs that Ken has consistently selected when available throughout his tenure are Schulz and Dixon, who crossed over for about 7 games when Schulz's body was gone.

What's your endgame here though Edgie? What should we be doing differently? Hypothetically should we not have traded for Dixon? Should we trade him now? Is someone else going to do a better job?
I'm not just talking Ken, I'm talking the history of the club at AFL level. It's a bit of an anomaly, no? When have we ever had say, 120 goals kicked between 2 or 3 big tall targets?
 

El_Scorcho

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I'm not just talking Ken, I'm talking the history of the club at AFL level. It's a bit of an anomaly, no? When have we ever had say, 120 goals kicked between 2 or 3 big tall targets?
136 between Tredrea, Lade and Thurstans in 2004

121 between Tredrea, Westhoff and Ebert in 2007. I know Ebert was short but he played a key forward style role.

Obviously under Primus we were s**t and under Hinkley we've made a concerted effort to not play multiple tall forwards at the same time for any more than a game or two.
 

Moo87

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Definitely not an accurate forward now, under Hinkley and Bassett. Again, he was a very accurate forward at the Gold Coast. 41.15 in his last season there.
This is a recurrent problem for us. All too often we see a deterioration in goalkicking after being traded or drafted to Ports.

For this season, we are 90 points below our expected score. We only have 3 players going at 50% or above accuracy for the year.

To put this into context, over the season we've had 20 less shots then Geelong, with a difference in overall expected score of 68 points. The actual difference is 262. Whatever training we're doing about goalkicking needs to change.
 

TeeKray

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Imagine if we gave this many excuses to every other player on the list.

The coach/game plan being s**t and the player not performing are not mutually exclusive concepts.
 

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