Phantom Draft Bishop's 2017 Draft Thread

[Bishop]

Brief thoughts on the two games from Friday - won't go into detail on the bottom-agers:

WAs bottom-agers ran Vic Country off their legs.

WA
Oscar Allen - marked well and was a good target up forward, has showed enough to suggest he can push for first round honours come draft time.

Aaron Naughton - Ugly kicking style but KE% has been ok in the U18 Champs. Positions himself well behind the ball - but VC don't have a Tall FWD that is really draftable so he didn't play on a 'star' - Sam Taylor has often taken the No.1 tall, so he's played second string. Showed enough to suggest he's draftable.

Jake Patmore - Done enough to suggest he could be a late pick, I didn't think he was as influential despite getting 32 disposals. Ball use can be sloppy on his right foot at times. Fox Sports have no idea declaring he's a first rounder...

VC
Lochie O'Brien - Liked his voice around the ground and at the stoppages but really disappointed with his game. Again was inconsistent, at least starting on fire this week but dropped off after QT. Ball use wasn't as sharp as it was the week before and he is a lot more outside than I thought coming into the season. Outside my top 10 at the moment.

Matty Ling - Really like this kid and he's pushing for my top 10, agile and isn't afraid to take opponents on. Another with a piercing left foot kick.

LDU - Just an ok game, hasn't hit the standards I was hoping. Second half very good and is great at the stoppages - but want a four quarter effort that he has shown at TAC Cup/School level.

Dow - Showed some good signs, thought he was better the week before. Missed an absolute sitter in front of goal late in the contest. In that 10-15 range for me.

VM v SA

Vic Metro's talent far too good for SA

VM
Rayner - No doubt an early pick, enough said. Endurance the only thing in the back of my mind whether I'd be selecting him at 1.

Stephenson - Was the performance I was screaming out for and had a huge rev up from the coach pre-game & kept his name inside the top 10, but I don't reckon he's a contender for No.1

Sutherland - Don't get all the hate on him, still very much considered for the No.1 selection and easily top 5. Picks the ball up at ground level as well as any tall I've ever seen, is clean with his hands and a smart footballer. Upside is phenomenal.

Cerra - Pretty quiet but still had some moments that were outstanding. Can't believe some people on here don't have him top 10 - even top 5. Gun.

Stoddart - Best game of the carnival, was good in traffic and found targets coming out of the backline. Smart player who gets to the right positions, like him playing higher HBF/Wing than BP where Metro have played him.

Coffield/Constable - Both likely top 10s, super clean with ball in hand.

SA

Fogarty - Absolutely atrocious, injury or not - I don't reckon he is because he still moves fine when he wants to - picks and chooses his moments and his body language has been poor. Watching from up high, he is lazy at times and didn't run to defend at certain stages. Four disposals from the man some people think will be No.1 pleaseeeee, reckon some in the know will have him outside of the top 10.

Petty - SAs clear best and one I definitely think is draftable. Got moved forward late in the game but showed enough signs intercepting in defence in what was one way traffic for most of the game.

Kreuger - Simply amazed he hadn't played until Friday and justified why I've had him in my top 30 all season. Great mark and nice left foot kick. Very athletic and can push further up the ground.

 

[GoGrows]

Does Cerra get enough of the ball?

 

[Bishop]

Does Cerra get enough of the ball?

Yep. Started the year with 26, 26, 29 disposals in first 3 TAC Cup games then played school. Had 29 disposals at 86 % in the Vic Metro trial game as arguably BOG. Whilst he hasn't had the big numbers that some have had in the champs, some of his moments are outstanding. Such as the pinpoint right foot pass to Lachie Fogarty in the video below at the 0.13min mark.

You very rarely get the full package of players averaging 30 disposals for example in the Champs, and numbers are on capped 25 min quarters compared with 30 minutes ish for TAC Cup for example.

 

[LemmingMaster]

VC

Matty Ling - Really like this kid and he's pushing for my top 10, agile and isn't afraid to take opponents on. Another with a piercing left foot kick.
VM

Stoddart - Best game of the carnival, was good in traffic and found targets coming out of the backline. Smart player who gets to the right positions, like him playing higher HBF/Wing than BP where Metro have played him.
SA
Petty - SAs clear best and one I definitely think is draftable. Got moved forward late in the game but showed enough signs intercepting in defence in what was one way traffic for most of the game.

Kreuger - Simply amazed he hadn't played until Friday and justified why I've had him in my top 30 all season. Great mark and nice left foot kick. Very athletic and can push further up the ground.

I'm going to have to rewatch country games to check out Ling more closely. Second person to talk about him, so I need to pay closer attention.

Stoddart - Watched him live against WA and loved his game, watched him on TV and not as much. Wednesday may show where I rank him properly.

Petty - I really wanted to push him into my top 30, not sure where he sits but I think he is a solid defender, but I'd like to watch him forward as well. I thought he showed a little forward.

Kreuger, this is the kind of player they needed all championships. I think they would have beaten WA with him in their side. SA just lack a target forward in the game I watched live.

 

[briztoon]

Brief thoughts on the two games from Friday - won't go into detail on the bottom-agers:
...
SA

Fogarty - Absolutely atrocious, injury or not - I don't reckon he is because he still moves fine when he wants to - picks and chooses his moments and his body language has been poor. Watching from up high, he is lazy at times and didn't run to defend at certain stages. Four disposals from the man some people think will be No.1 pleaseeeee, reckon some in the know will have him outside of the top 10.

Petty - SAs clear best and one I definitely think is draftable. Got moved forward late in the game but showed enough signs intercepting in defence in what was one way traffic for most of the game.

Kreuger - Simply amazed he hadn't played until Friday and justified why I've had him in my top 30 all season. Great mark and nice left foot kick. Very athletic and can push further up the ground.

Deliberately tanking?

 

[Bishop]

Deliberately tanking?

Wouldn't have thought so.

 

[foj1]

Great summary
Ling is not a piercing kick if anything it is a flaw he has a looping left kick
Floyd has a piercing kick

Brief thoughts on the two games from Friday - won't go into detail on the bottom-agers:

WAs bottom-agers ran Vic Country off their legs.

WA
Oscar Allen - marked well and was a good target up forward, has showed enough to suggest he can push for first round honours come draft time.

Aaron Naughton - Ugly kicking style but KE% has been ok in the U18 Champs. Positions himself well behind the ball - but VC don't have a Tall FWD that is really draftable so he didn't play on a 'star' - Sam Taylor has often taken the No.1 tall, so he's played second string. Showed enough to suggest he's draftable.

Jake Patmore - Done enough to suggest he could be a late pick, I didn't think he was as influential despite getting 32 disposals. Ball use can be sloppy on his right foot at times. Fox Sports have no idea declaring he's a first rounder...

VC
Lochie O'Brien - Liked his voice around the ground and at the stoppages but really disappointed with his game. Again was inconsistent, at least starting on fire this week but dropped off after QT. Ball use wasn't as sharp as it was the week before and he is a lot more outside than I thought coming into the season. Outside my top 10 at the moment.

Matty Ling - Really like this kid and he's pushing for my top 10, agile and isn't afraid to take opponents on. Another with a piercing left foot kick.

LDU - Just an ok game, hasn't hit the standards I was hoping. Second half very good and is great at the stoppages - but want a four quarter effort that he has shown at TAC Cup/School level.

Dow - Showed some good signs, thought he was better the week before. Missed an absolute sitter in front of goal late in the contest. In that 10-15 range for me.

VM v SA

Vic Metro's talent far too good for SA

VM
Rayner - No doubt an early pick, enough said. Endurance the only thing in the back of my mind whether I'd be selecting him at 1.

Stephenson - Was the performance I was screaming out for and had a huge rev up from the coach pre-game & kept his name inside the top 10, but I don't reckon he's a contender for No.1

Sutherland - Don't get all the hate on him, still very much considered for the No.1 selection and easily top 5. Picks the ball up at ground level as well as any tall I've ever seen, is clean with his hands and a smart footballer. Upside is phenomenal.

Cerra - Pretty quiet but still had some moments that were outstanding. Can't believe some people on here don't have him top 10 - even top 5. Gun.

Stoddart - Best game of the carnival, was good in traffic and found targets coming out of the backline. Smart player who gets to the right positions, like him playing higher HBF/Wing than BP where Metro have played him.

Coffield/Constable - Both likely top 10s, super clean with ball in hand.

SA

Fogarty - Absolutely atrocious, injury or not - I don't reckon he is because he still moves fine when he wants to - picks and chooses his moments and his body language has been poor. Watching from up high, he is lazy at times and didn't run to defend at certain stages. Four disposals from the man some people think will be No.1 pleaseeeee, reckon some in the know will have him outside of the top 10.

Petty - SAs clear best and one I definitely think is draftable. Got moved forward late in the game but showed enough signs intercepting in defence in what was one way traffic for most of the game.

Kreuger - Simply amazed he hadn't played until Friday and justified why I've had him in my top 30 all season. Great mark and nice left foot kick. Very athletic and can push further up the ground.

 

[Toadvine]

Is Krueger someone you think could push up into first round consideration for the Tiges? I love his attack on the ball for a big dude,...

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

Is Krueger someone you think could push up into first round consideration for the Tiges? I love his attack on the ball for a big dude,...

His first game vs Metro showed some serious signs why some phantoms already had him in their top 30 prior to the carnival. Ill let Bishop answer fully, but I like him a lot as KPP. 196cm and a left footer. His contest marking was great vs Metro, his 2nd efforts at ground level too were excellent for a big guy. Was a real live wire, and arguably the best KPP on the ground for both teams that day.
Really wanting him to play well vs Country, as I think most people will be watching and waiting to see if he could produce that performance again.

Ill have to look a bit more at Todd Elton but could potentially be a similar type player. Kreuger does look a bit more agile and quicker for the size though.

 

[Toadvine]

His first game vs Metro showed some serious signs why some phantoms already had him in their top 30 prior to the carnival. Ill let Bishop answer fully, but I like him a lot as KPP. 196cm and a left footer. His contest marking was great vs Metro, his 2nd efforts at ground level too were excellent for a big guy. Was a real live wire, and arguably the best KPP on the ground for both teams that day.
Really wanting him to play well vs Country, as I think most people will be watching and waiting to see if he could produce that performance again.

Ill have to look a bit more at Todd Elton but could potentially be a similar type player. Kreuger does look a bit more agile and quicker for the size though.

Cheers Hutchy, I'm definitely going to be keeping a close eye on his progress for the rest of the year..
Elton is the epitome of the phrase "looks like Tarzan plays like Jane", Kreuger's intensity and 2nd efforts is what makes me think he could be a great addition for us.

 

[Bishop]

Is Krueger someone you think could push up into first round consideration for the Tiges? I love his attack on the ball for a big dude,...

Short answer yes - Definitely in consideration for first round. A few whispers of his off field stuff not being flash. but at the end of the day there were players last year (eg: Shai Bolton) with more issues and the Tigers still ended up drafting them. Players grow up very quickly in an AFL environment.

Very athletic and moves well - a key for talls these days. Gone are the days of the big lumbering ones.

 

[HedgeFund]

First game in off a 6 week injury lay off (quad tear) and Andy Brayshaw plays 57% game time, getting 20 possessions at 85% efficiency.

Can only get better from here. I have him first round for sure, but maybe I don't know things others around here do?

 

[The Defender]

I'm going to have to rewatch country games to check out Ling more closely. Second person to talk about him, so I need to pay closer attention.

Stoddart - Watched him live against WA and loved his game, watched him on TV and not as much. Wednesday may show where I rank him properly.

Petty - I really wanted to push him into my top 30, not sure where he sits but I think he is a solid defender, but I'd like to watch him forward as well. I thought he showed a little forward.

Kreuger, this is the kind of player they needed all championships. I think they would have beaten WA with him in their side. SA just lack a target forward in the game I watched live.

Your comments about watching games live compared to watching tapes are interesting.

How many things do you think get missed watching live or watching the tape?

How many game tapes would a recruiter watch during the week?

 

[Bishop]

First game in off a 6 week injury lay off (quad tear) and Andy Brayshaw plays 57% game time, getting 20 possessions at 85% efficiency.

Can only get better from here. I have him first round for sure, but maybe I don't know things others around here do?

Whereas Darcy Fogarty plays 81% for 4 disposals.

Brayshaw definitely in the mix for me.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Your comments about watching games live compared to watching tapes are interesting.
How many things do you think get missed watching live or watching the tape?
How many game tapes would a recruiter watch during the week?

Watching live - You can see what they do off the ball. (Spread from contest, blocking, leading patterns...) You can also see their leadership at times and watch them direct traffic, set up structures, hear their voice...

Watching tapes - You can really see their contested work and know exactly who kicked a ball, hand passed, tackled.... When you're watching live, sometimes it is a struggle to see who fired out a quick handpass, blocked, lovely little tap to your team mate... Just those finer inside details.

In a perfect world, I would like to watch a game live and then have the replay on hand to refine your thoughts.
There have been many times where you watch a player live and he racks up 20 possessions and it shocks you, you just miss a heap of inside work.

I would have to ask my recruiter mates, but some of the better clubs have someone that can splice up tapes to save time. I knew a person that one of his roles was creating vision of draftable players in a database for easy access to their vision.

I would imagine that recruiters watch more live games than tapes, but they have the benefit of reducing their pool of players they want to watch.

When someone like me goes to watch a game, I am attempting to process 44 players and often you miss a player that was not on your radar.
Ling, Floyd and a few others are examples of players that could be rated higher but mentally I did not focus enough attention to their games to properly rate them. That is when tapes are handy to give you a better impression of those players you missed.

 

[HBF]

Hey Bish & LM, is the fact that Rayner ran a 12 beep a concern?

 

[LemmingMaster]

Hey Bish & LM, is the fact that Rayner ran a 12 beep a concern?

Maybe the only concern. I think Wingard had a sub 13 beep test in his draft year and he turned out to be a dangerous small forward that can pinch hit in the midfield. I have a feeling Rayner will be a wingard styled forward.

 

[HBF]

Maybe the only concern. I think Wingard had a sub 13 beep test in his draft year and he turned out to be a dangerous small forward that can pinch hit in the midfield. I have a feeling Rayner will be a wingard styled forward.

The little bit I have seen of him he looks pretty good in the midfield. Think he could be "perfect fit" for Carlton.

 

[Bishop]

Hey Bish & LM, is the fact that Rayner ran a 12 beep a concern?

Yes it is, I remember speaking to a club recruiter earlier in the year and he was very scathing about it. 11.10 is terrible.

The fact is he's never had a history of running a good beep test so the endurance stuff has always been lacking.

In saying that - it hasn't had a notable effect on him, but I've rarely seen him star in a fourth quarter this season. Whether that's a coincidence or telling about his endurance.

 

[ringo1]

Yes it is, I remember speaking to a club recruiter earlier in the year and he was very scathing about it. 11.10 is terrible.

The fact is he's never had a history of running a good beep test so the endurance stuff has always been lacking.

In saying that - it hasn't had a notable effect on him, but I've rarely seen him star in a fourth quarter this season. Whether that's a coincidence or telling about his endurance.

In reality the beep is irrelevant now with the introduction of the 'Yo-Yo" which is a much better indicator of endurance and fitness.

 

[jjami15]

Yes it is, I remember speaking to a club recruiter earlier in the year and he was very scathing about it. 11.10 is terrible.

The fact is he's never had a history of running a good beep test so the endurance stuff has always been lacking.

In saying that - it hasn't had a notable effect on him, but I've rarely seen him star in a fourth quarter this season. Whether that's a coincidence or telling about his endurance.

The question around this is one of two; does Rayner not have the physiological make-up for endurance or has Rayner not been professional enough to try and build his endurance with the specific focus on this area? It would have been communicated to him by numerous people that he would need to build his engine. It will be interesting if he works on this especially after the national champs.

 

[Bishop]

In reality the beep is irrelevant now with the introduction of the 'Yo-Yo" which is a much better indicator of endurance and fitness.

Correct, the question on clubs lips is 'can he yo-yo'

The question around this is one of two; does Rayner not have the physiological make-up for endurance or has Rayner not been professional enough to try and build his endurance with the specific focus on this area? It would have been communicated to him by numerous people that he would need to build his engine. It will be interesting if he works on this especially after the national champs.

I'm sure it's a focus, I do find it interesting though as it's never been one of his strengths even in his past testing results have always been around the similar mark. Rhys Mathieson was similar, he ran a 12.5 at draft camp and that was woeful.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What I reckon needs to be taken into account with Rayner compared to someone like Petracca, is that CP was born on Jan 4 and was reportedly at uni in his draft year, and the year before he was drafted he reportedly had very poor endurance, whereas Rayner was born in late October and is presumably still at school, so he's almost a year younger than CP was at the corresponding time in his draft year.

So when CP was the age Rayner is now and in year 12, like Rayner presumably is now, he likewise was meant to have very poor endurance and there were big questionmarks on his ability to build that endurance and thus play meaningful midfield minutes. Just like there are on Rayner now.

The million dollar question is, does Rayner have the ability and/or will to improve his significantly, like Petracca eventually did?

If he does, I reckon he's got every bit as much potential as Petracca has, if not more, and I was a massive wrap for him in his draft year.

 

[footy24seven]

What I reckon needs to be taken into account with Rayner compared to someone like Petracca, is that CP was born on Jan 4 and was reportedly at uni in his draft year, and the year before he was drafted he reportedly had very poor endurance, whereas Rayner was born in late October and is presumably still at school, so he's almost a year younger than CP was at the corresponding time in his draft year.

So when CP was the age Rayner is now and in year 12, like Rayner presumably is now, he likewise was meant to have very poor endurance and there were big questionmarks on his ability to build that endurance and thus play meaningful midfield minutes.

The big question is, does Rayner have the ability and/or will to improve his significantly, like Petracca eventually did?

I think once in the system and with an inevitable trim down Rayner will get to where he needs to be.


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[Bishop]

What I reckon needs to be taken into account with Rayner compared to someone like Petracca, is that CP was born on Jan 4 and was reportedly at uni in his draft year, and the year before he was drafted he reportedly had very poor endurance, whereas Rayner was born in late October and is presumably still at school, so he's almost a year younger than CP was at the corresponding time in his draft year.

So when CP was the age Rayner is now and in year 12, like Rayner presumably is now, he likewise was meant to have very poor endurance and there were big questionmarks on his ability to build that endurance and thus play meaningful midfield minutes. Just like there are on Rayner now.

The million dollar question is, does Rayner have the ability and/or will to improve his significantly, like Petracca eventually did?

If he does, I reckon he's got every bit as much potential as Petracca has, if not more, and I was a massive wrap for him in his draft year.

Don't fully agree with that, Petracca always had a bigger starting base and had a big improvement in 1.5 yrs. Not to say Rayner can't/won't have an improvement, but school or not school isn't an excuse whether he can't improve his endurance.

By the data:
(Age in brackets)
Petracca (17.21 - 2013) - 13.5
Petracca (17.8 - 2013) - 13.4
Petracca (18.0 - 2014) - DNT
Petracca (18.2 - 2014) - 14.1
Petracca (18.7 - 2014) - 14.12

Rayner (16.3 - 2016) - 11.13
Rayner (17.3 - 2017) - 11.10