Phantom Draft Bishop's 2017 Draft Thread

[SA_Tiger11]

Bishop, you don't rate Naish?

 

[THE_GUN]

Most people who have watched Naish this year have always said picks around 25-30

Its only really Twomey & Buckenara that have him 1st round

 

[Procrastinator35]

Bishop, you don't rate Naish?

Of course he does....He's purposely trying to down-play his rating is all....The Tigers have no chance of getting 3 + Naish inside pick 25.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Most people who have watched Naish this year have always said picks around 25-30

Its only really Twomey & Buckenara that have him 1st round

Yep, Naish can make some horrible clangers. For an outside leaning midfielder 57% by foot (while I know KE% stats are deceiving) hardly screams elite ball use... some games are better than others but he's in that R2 because he lacks the consistency by foot. Look at Petruccelle as another lightning quick who makes horrible errors by foot. Has enough to work with but his kicking sees him slip down the order.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Also just because you think someone is a poor kick doesn't mean you don't like their other attributes enough to "rate them".

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yep, Naish can make some horrible clangers. For an outside leaning midfielder 57% by foot (while I know KE% stats are deceiving) hardly screams elite ball use... some games are better than others but he's in that R2 because he lacks the consistency by foot. Look at Petruccelle as another lightning quick who makes horrible errors by foot. Has enough to work with but his kicking sees him slip down the order.

This draft has a lack of decent outside players though which still means naish will get bid on relatively early.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

This draft has a lack of decent outside players though which still means naish will get bid on relatively early.

No doubt, Bishop was responding to the fact that Naish wasn't a top kick. I'd imagine he will get a bid around the 20-25 mark, perhaps just inside 20.

 

[THE_GUN]

Yep, Naish can make some horrible clangers. For an outside leaning midfielder 57% by foot (while I know KE% stats are deceiving) hardly screams elite ball use... some games are better than others but he's in that R2 because he lacks the consistency by foot. Look at Petruccelle as another lightning quick who makes horrible errors by foot. Has enough to work with but his kicking sees him slip down the order.

If his name was not Naish and connected to Richmond (premiership & big following) i doubt he would have this much media and they wouldnt be talking him up as a 1st rounder.
Higgins,Clark,O'Brien,Ling,Murphy,Garner,Richards Should be picked ahead of Naish imo - Extremely outside and very light with reasonable pace hardly elite and question marks on disposal.

I would be happy enough to pass on him with our first 3 picks and take him only if after them

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No doubt, Bishop was responding to the fact that Naish wasn't a top kick. I'd imagine he will get a bid around the 20-25 mark, perhaps just inside 20.

Agree with all that. 15-20 is where i would expect him to be bid (i would expect we bid on him at 22 at the latest if he is still there).

 

[THE_GUN]

Agree with all that. 15-20 is where i would expect him to be bid (i would expect we bid on him at 22 at the latest if he is still there).

I dont think Cats will bid to be honest, Rnd 3 swap would have some nod nod wink wink type agreements with Balmey and the Cats people

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I dont think Cats will bid to be honest, Rnd 3 swap would have some nod nod wink wink type agreements with Balmey and the Cats people

Maybe if it relates to you not bidding on our FS next year. But naish is the player type (wing/outside mid) that we will chase at 22/24 as we need that type-we were playing kolo on a wing who isn't a wingman and 2 of our more decent outside players (motlop and lang) have gone so we need that type.

 

[HedgeFund]

This draft has a lack of decent outside players though which still means naish will get bid on relatively early.

Not much point being an “outside player” if you keep turning it over by foot is there?

Better to be ordinary by foot but capable of winning your own pill (and dishing it to someone who can kick effectively).

 

[Suma Magic]

Two ways of looking it with Naish (and probably more).

His value is set now (by what the tiges think he is worth):
- an earlier bid means passing or over-paying
- a later bid means getting him for cheaper than he is worth.

His value is set by the market:
- an early bid means that he is good at footy, and matching means the tiges get him for a discount.
- a late bid means he isn't as good at footy, and matching means the tiges get him at a discount.

Personally I think worst case scenario is where the tiges don't match - thus missing out on securing a good player at a discount.

 

[THE_GUN]

The tigers will know what they are prepared to pay for him and in my opinion it would be if there is a bid #12 and later they will match as it wont effect their #20 & #25

But if a bid comes before (unlikely) they wont match , My guess would be GWS 27/28

 

[ArdentEagle]

Two ways of looking it with Naish (and probably more).

His value is set now (by what the tiges think he is worth):
- an earlier bid means passing or over-paying
- a later bid means getting him for cheaper than he is worth.

His value is set by the market:
- an early bid means that he is good at footy, and matching means the tiges get him for a discount.
- a late bid means he isn't as good at footy, and matching means the tiges get him at a discount.

Personally I think worst case scenario is where the tiges don't match - thus missing out on securing a good player at a discount.

If his skill, decision making and ball use are poor, is he really a good player at a discount...Or is it just the name?
The decision making in particular is the one that would worry me the most.

BTW - I stand by my move on our board Phantom Draft

 

[briztoon]

Seriously, AFL teams do not bid on players like Naish (or Ballenden) with any expectation of actually drafting them. They know the club the player is tied to is going to match the bid. So the only reason for to bid is the make the club pay fair value, and as such the bid usually comes a little later than where the player is actually rated.

Clubs are a little gun shy to bid to early, unless they really, really want the kid, because they face the risk of ending up with the kid when they do not really want the kid and were just trying to make the other club burn a pick or picks.

 

[THE_GUN]

Seriously, AFL teams do not bid on players like Naish (or Ballenden) with any expectation of actually drafting them. They know the club the player is tied to is going to match the bid. So the only reason for to bid is the make the club pay fair value, and as such the bid usually comes a little later than where the player is actually rated.

Clubs are a little gun shy to bid to early, unless they really, really want the kid, because they face the risk of ending up with the kid when they do not really want the kid and were just trying to make the other club burn a pick or picks.

I agree with this

I believe that the Club's actually bid at market rate or better if they want the kid and believe that they may get him due to the fathers club perhaps not matching as the bid is higher than expected.

I think that if a club believes the club will match then they usually dont bid unless the kid has slid too much and the clubs believe that there has been enough of a discount and the club should take him now (e.g SOS kid)

I think the Academy picks get a slightly higher bid as clubs believe they have a higher chance to get the kid more than a Father Son

 

[briztoon]

I agree with this

I believe that the Club's actually bid at market rate or better if they want the kid and believe that they may get him due to the fathers club perhaps not matching as the bid is higher than expected.

I think that if a club believes the club will match then they usually dont bid unless the kid has slid too much and the clubs believe that there has been enough of a discount and the club should take him now (e.g SOS kid)

I think the Academy picks get a slightly higher bid as clubs believe they have a higher chance to get the kid more than a Father Son

It was funny watching Jack Bowes slid to pick 10 in last years draft, when Brett Anderson said he ranked Bowes in his top 3, and Twomey was adamant Brisbane should bid on Bowes at pick 3 because he was a highly rated Queensland kid and we should bid on Bowes regardless.

 

[Madlionsfan91]

Post 3: Phantom Draft

Post Trade Week- (Will do a Full Phantom Draft later in the week)
This is based off gut feel/inside info/guess work -- it's not an exact science. Happy to justify selection etc.

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Others: Paddy Dow seems like the only other contender for the No.1 pick, with everything I hear suggesting Rayner isn't the Lions no.1 (he isn't the consensus No.1 around the place either)

Pick 2: Fremantle: Adam Cerra
Others: Freo have liked Cerra for a long time and I thought Pick 5 they'd consider him, but now may grab him at 2. Andrew Brayshaw another they've watched and liked throughout the year. Too early to consider Brander/Naughton. Already have a lot of Rayner 'types' - Dow could be considered too.

Pick 3: Carlton: Paddy Dow
Others: Picking a 'full-time' midfielder might see them grab Dow or LDU/Cerra if available. Darcy Fogarty another name that doesn't go away - but they might hope that he gets past North at 4 & to their next Pick at 10. Andrew Brayshaw would also be a candidate.

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner
Others: Have had multiple people mention to me over the last 96 hours that North are fans of Fogarty - but he's not someone I'd take this early. X-Factor Rayner should appeal to build their future around, Stephenson's strong 2nd 1/2 to the year might see him considered too.

Pick 5: Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw
Others: Some people close to Brander continue to suggest that Freo have been right into them - some in the know say Naughton is another they might take, others say he isn't going to be considered. Brayshaw seems the best fit here.

Pick 6: Collingwood: Nicholas Coffield
Others: They might consider Naughton as a tall defender - but Coffield makes sense here as the best available. Aiden Bonar's strong 2nd half to the year will make him appeal heavily. They were the first club to speak to Nathan Murphy earlier in the year, but it's too early for him.

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them.

Pick 8: St Kilda: Aiden Bonar
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them but couldn't see Bonar being overlooked. Might look at Dandenong Stingrays teammate Hunter Clark. Saints were keen to add another KPD - but they may wait til next year after grabbing Logan Austin in trade week.

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton
Others: Hands down the hardest pick inside the top 10 - who do they take? They've liked Nathan Murphy, but could hope he gets later. Fogarty would have to be a chance too. Small forward like Jack Higgins another.

Pick 10: Carlton: Darcy Fogarty
Others: Charlie Constable is one that SOS would take, while some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past.

Pick 11: GWS: Jack Higgins
Others: Everyone linking them with Higgins makes me worried that this pick might not be as easy as it seems, especially when they could've grabbed Ainsworth last year and took Taranto. Watch this space with GWS.

Pick 12: Adelaide: Hunter Clark
Others: Best available, would grab D.Fogarty surely if he gets through.

Pick 13: WCE: Oscar Allen
Others: They need mids - but there isn't a suitable option here. Allen next best player on the board and a WA prospect. Clark would fit the bill if he slides. Constable's running in WA might be an issue - but he could be a project midfielder if they can get him up to speed.

Pick 14: Sydney: Nathan Murphy
Others: Seems the best fit here for the Swans - can play at either end. Constable another candidate.

Pick 15: Brisbane: Charlie Constable
Others: Best available here - but the fear could be that he is gone before this pick & it'd be very hard to see who the Lions grab at Pick 15. They also have Pick 18 - might look to take an outside mid or add some speed such as Petruccelle or Lochie O'Brien. Unlikely to take a tall with Ballenden's bid coming in the 20s.

Pick 16: Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards
Others: Murphy will be there man if the Swans don't take him. Could they take Gryan Miers this early? Richards' speed will appeal, as could Jack Petruccelle. Good chance to bid on Naish.

Pick 17: Richmond: Jarrod Brander
Others: Best fit to grab a tall. If Oscar Allen gets here that'd make sense - think Sam Hayes will be grabbed at their next pick, but he has a lot of work to be done on his running. Naish bid could come at Pick 16 - otherwise they'll be able to use Pick 20 as well. Lot of talk Richmond like Noah Balta too.


----

Post Round 23 - (Will do a Full Phantom Draft post trade week - but it's pointless at the moment)

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Paddy Dow

Pick 2: Gold Coast: Adam Cerra

Pick 3: Carlton: Luke Davies-Uniacke

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner

Pick 5: Fremantle: Jarrod Brander

Pick 6: Collingwood: Aaron Naughton

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson

Pick 8: St Kilda: Nicholas Coffield

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Andrew Brayshaw

Pick 10: Melbourne: Jack Higgins

Pick 11: West Coast: Hunter Clark

Pick 12: Essendon: Noah Balta

Pick 13: Sydney: Charlie Constable

Pick 14: Brisbane Lions: Joel Garner

Pick 15: Richmond: Sam Hayes

Pick 16: Richmond: Lochie O'Brien

Pick 17: Adelaide: Darcy Fogarty

Post 3: Phantom Draft

Post Trade Week- (Will do a Full Phantom Draft later in the week)
This is based off gut feel/inside info/guess work -- it's not an exact science. Happy to justify selection etc.

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Others: Paddy Dow seems like the only other contender for the No.1 pick, with everything I hear suggesting Rayner isn't the Lions no.1 (he isn't the consensus No.1 around the place either)

Pick 2: Fremantle: Adam Cerra
Others: Freo have liked Cerra for a long time and I thought Pick 5 they'd consider him, but now may grab him at 2. Andrew Brayshaw another they've watched and liked throughout the year. Too early to consider Brander/Naughton. Already have a lot of Rayner 'types' - Dow could be considered too.

Pick 3: Carlton: Paddy Dow
Others: Picking a 'full-time' midfielder might see them grab Dow or LDU/Cerra if available. Darcy Fogarty another name that doesn't go away - but they might hope that he gets past North at 4 & to their next Pick at 10. Andrew Brayshaw would also be a candidate.

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner
Others: Have had multiple people mention to me over the last 96 hours that North are fans of Fogarty - but he's not someone I'd take this early. X-Factor Rayner should appeal to build their future around, Stephenson's strong 2nd 1/2 to the year might see him considered too.

Pick 5: Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw
Others: Some people close to Brander continue to suggest that Freo have been right into them - some in the know say Naughton is another they might take, others say he isn't going to be considered. Brayshaw seems the best fit here.

Pick 6: Collingwood: Nicholas Coffield
Others: They might consider Naughton as a tall defender - but Coffield makes sense here as the best available. Aiden Bonar's strong 2nd half to the year will make him appeal heavily. They were the first club to speak to Nathan Murphy earlier in the year, but it's too early for him.

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them.

Pick 8: St Kilda: Aiden Bonar
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them but couldn't see Bonar being overlooked. Might look at Dandenong Stingrays teammate Hunter Clark. Saints were keen to add another KPD - but they may wait til next year after grabbing Logan Austin in trade week.

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton
Others: Hands down the hardest pick inside the top 10 - who do they take? They've liked Nathan Murphy, but could hope he gets later. Fogarty would have to be a chance too. Small forward like Jack Higgins another.

Pick 10: Carlton: Darcy Fogarty
Others: Charlie Constable is one that SOS would take, while some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past.

Pick 11: GWS: Jack Higgins
Others: Everyone linking them with Higgins makes me worried that this pick might not be as easy as it seems, especially when they could've grabbed Ainsworth last year and took Taranto. Watch this space with GWS.

Pick 12: Adelaide: Hunter Clark
Others: Best available, would grab D.Fogarty surely if he gets through.

Pick 13: WCE: Oscar Allen
Others: They need mids - but there isn't a suitable option here. Allen next best player on the board and a WA prospect. Clark would fit the bill if he slides. Constable's running in WA might be an issue - but he could be a project midfielder if they can get him up to speed.

Pick 14: Sydney: Nathan Murphy
Others: Seems the best fit here for the Swans - can play at either end. Constable another candidate.

Pick 15: Brisbane: Charlie Constable
Others: Best available here - but the fear could be that he is gone before this pick & it'd be very hard to see who the Lions grab at Pick 15. They also have Pick 18 - might look to take an outside mid or add some speed such as Petruccelle or Lochie O'Brien. Unlikely to take a tall with Ballenden's bid coming in the 20s.

Pick 16: Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards
Others: Murphy will be there man if the Swans don't take him. Could they take Gryan Miers this early? Richards' speed will appeal, as could Jack Petruccelle. Good chance to bid on Naish.

Pick 17: Richmond: Jarrod Brander
Others: Best fit to grab a tall. If Oscar Allen gets here that'd make sense - think Sam Hayes will be grabbed at their next pick, but he has a lot of work to be done on his running. Naish bid could come at Pick 16 - otherwise they'll be able to use Pick 20 as well. Lot of talk Richmond like Noah Balta too.


----

Post Round 23 - (Will do a Full Phantom Draft post trade week - but it's pointless at the moment)

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Paddy Dow

Pick 2: Gold Coast: Adam Cerra

Pick 3: Carlton: Luke Davies-Uniacke

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner

Pick 5: Fremantle: Jarrod Brander

Pick 6: Collingwood: Aaron Naughton

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson

Pick 8: St Kilda: Nicholas Coffield

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Andrew Brayshaw

Pick 10: Melbourne: Jack Higgins

Pick 11: West Coast: Hunter Clark

Pick 12: Essendon: Noah Balta

Pick 13: Sydney: Charlie Constable

Pick 14: Brisbane Lions: Joel Garner

Pick 15: Richmond: Sam Hayes

Pick 16: Richmond: Lochie O'Brien

Pick 17: Adelaide: Darcy Fogarty

really hope Constable gets to 15 bish him or Clark exactly what brisbane need inside mids build depth ! is Pecturelle real chance at 18 or touch too high ? think LDU goes at 1 seems his finals form has lifted himself to 1

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Seriously, AFL teams do not bid on players like Naish (or Ballenden) with any expectation of actually drafting them. They know the club the player is tied to is going to match the bid. So the only reason for to bid is the make the club pay fair value, and as such the bid usually comes a little later than where the player is actually rated.

Clubs are a little gun shy to bid to early, unless they really, really want the kid, because they face the risk of ending up with the kid when they do not really want the kid and were just trying to make the other club burn a pick or picks.

Josh Dunkley and Harrison Macreadie say hi

 

[briztoon]

Josh Dunkley and Harrison Macreadie say hi

Declan Watson waves back.

 

[THE_GUN]

Josh Dunkley and Harrison Macreadie say hi

Josh Dunkley made it clear to Sydney that he wanted to stay in Melbourne and sydney were good to him and they had a deal that if an interstate team bid on Dunkley then Sydney would match but if it was a melbourne club the sydney would let him go - Doggies bid and sydney let him go where he wanted
Sydney were extremely good to him.

MacReadie (#47) & Garthwaite (#72) were happy to let them go and had no intentions of taking them

 

[chels]

Josh Dunkley made it clear to Sydney that he wanted to stay in Melbourne and sydney were good to him and they had a deal that if an interstate team bid on Dunkley then Sydney would match but if it was a melbourne club the sydney would let him go - Doggies bid and sydney let him go where he wanted
Sydney were extremely good to him.

MacReadie (#47) & Garthwaite (#72) were happy to let them go and had no intentions of taking them

Amazing what can happen when all the interested parties are open and honest before the draft. A big life lesson right there.

 

[GoGrows]

Of course he does....He's purposely trying to down-play his rating is all....The Tigers have no chance of getting 3 + Naish inside pick 25.

great call. Bishop is purposely trying to play down his rating in his Big Footy Draft Thread because that's going result in AFL clubs forgetting about Naish and hence Richmond will get him for cheap. Amazing strategy.

idiot.

 

[THE_GUN]

Of course he does....He's purposely trying to down-play his rating is all....The Tigers have no chance of getting 3 + Naish inside pick 25.

Like all the recruiters for the other clubs are here reading this thread and making up their minds on players based on Bishop's (no disrespect bish) write up on Naish - Please im sure they have watched him all year and dont need our opinions