Prediction Blokes in the gun in 2021

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Snake_Baker

Snake_Baker

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Apr 24, 2013
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It's not a nice topic, but ultimately 3 players must make way every year.

1611807101034.png

- Garner, Hall & Tyson must get on the park and play consistent seniors.
- I think Hayden and Bonar are fighting for a list spot. I can't see them both making the cut.
- J. Walker will be performance based. I expect he will do enough again.
- It doesn't look good for Will Walker if he can't get a sustained run.
- Menadue is a coin toss.
- Big TC might keep a rookie spot.
- I won't be surprised if Dumont ends up in trade talks.
 
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If I had to make a call now it would go as follows:

Delisted

Bonar
W.Walker

Traded

Dumont

Rookied

Tom Campbell
 
Dumont's an FA, so unlikely to be traded you would think.

If we continue with the same list rejuvenation strategy from the most recent off-season, then Tyson and Hall would need to play career best footy in 2021 to still be here in '22.

Bonar is still young enough, but would want to show progress in the VFL initially and force his way into the seniors. If he's in the VFL all year, then I think it's likely he'll be delisted.

Josh Walker is the most interesting one, I think. It's hard to get a grip on where we see him in our future. Our dearth of talls alone might be enough to give him another chance, but he's also very much capable of playing quality senior footy this year and learning a new contract. Might be a case that it depends on what happens with recruitment in the off-season.

I think Garner will stay fit and earn another deal, while those on the rookie list, who knows? They're hard to predict.
 

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For a start WW & TG will need to stay healthy to give themselves a decent run at things. Tom Campbell is the only one who I’d fully expect to be gone next season - if he’s out of contract. Tyson will need to show something. Hall needs to show more consistency.


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Caracas said:
For a start WW & TG will need to stay healthy to give themselves a decent run at things. Tom Campbell is the only one who I’d fully expect to be gone next season - if he’s out of contract. Tyson will need to show something. Hall needs to show more consistency.
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It's all really injury related isn't it?
 
Snake_Baker said:
It's all really injury related isn't it?
Click to expand...

It is. If we do get a good run with injuries, it will mean some of those players will have to prove themselves in the VFL. McGuinness, probably, has to show signs of good potential too. Bonar, as you mentioned, is another. Right now, he looks 100 times better than he actually produces.


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Tyson and Campbell would be the first two obvious choices. Tyson would want to be playing consistent footy in order to earn another one year deal. His best form is more than good enough, but it's whether he can reach that level again considering he hasn't played for 2 years. Campbell is good backup, but we need to add list spots to develop another a-grade ruckman, as Goldy isn't going to be here forever.

Garner is in the same boat as Tyson, another injury ridden year and I don't think he'll go around again even though his best is more than good enough.

Will Walker wouldn't want to get injured. Considering he was the last player retained he will be in the gun if he doesn't show something this year. Again, I think we will know where he is at by the time the half way mark of the season rolls around.

Hall is interesting, obviously his age will come into consideration but he has enough weapons that if utilised correctly he could still be a game breaker. I think we will know where he stands with Noble by the half way mark of the season.

Bonar will need to show something. No real defined position and can't get continuity with his body.

J. Walker was delisted while Noble was general manager at Brisbane. Not a great start. His form last year was more than deserving of another year, but it will be interesting to see where he plays this year.

Menadue, meh. He'll have to have quite an impact if he gets another gig considering he is mature age.

Atley, hard to see what happens with him, will depend on how he is utilised in the game plan. Same goes with Dumont. Dumont has age on his side.

Kyron will want to make every post a winner. Is in ripping nick, but that needs to transfer to him making consistent impact on the field.
 
roos_fanatic08 said:
J. Walker was delisted while Noble was general manager at Brisbane. Not a great start. His form last year was more than deserving of another year, but it will be interesting to see where he plays this year.
Click to expand...

I reckon Comben's situation bodes well for Josh, and really he is a solid, honest player who deserves a spot on an AFL list anyway.
 
Snake_Baker said:
I reckon Comben's situation bodes well for Josh, and really he is a solid, honest player who deserves a spot on an AFL list anyway.
Click to expand...

Agree. We are definitely lacking some KP depth which bodes well for him. The arrival of Corr and the form of McKay probably spells the end of his defensive tenure though, which is where he played all his good footy.

Not too sure he gets retained if he plays as FF with limited impact.

I'm still curious to see what position he plays this year.
 

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good thread:

Big ones that stand out from the youth are Willy Walker and Bonar.
Older ones, Tyson, Hall and Campbell.

I personally am not sure about Josh Walker, I think he did great last year but I think it's fair to say he's not best 22 in a top 6 team. That said, we're not a top 6 team and it depends on how ruthless we are and the end of the year.

Hayden is a risk as well if he plays a decent chunk of the years in the 2's. Besides being incredibly brave I'm not sure what role he plays really really well for the team. I don't think he's super quick and can be a bit fumbly so pending the form and injury of others he might get the raw end of the deal.
 
roos_fanatic08 said:
Tyson and Campbell would be the first two obvious choices. Tyson would want to be playing consistent footy in order to earn another one year deal. His best form is more than good enough, but it's whether he can reach that level again considering he hasn't played for 2 years. Campbell is good backup, but we need to add list spots to develop another a-grade ruckman, as Goldy isn't going to be here forever.

Garner is in the same boat as Tyson, another injury ridden year and I don't think he'll go around again even though his best is more than good enough.

Will Walker wouldn't want to get injured. Considering he was the last player retained he will be in the gun if he doesn't show something this year. Again, I think we will know where he is at by the time the half way mark of the season rolls around.

Hall is interesting, obviously his age will come into consideration but he has enough weapons that if utilised correctly he could still be a game breaker. I think we will know where he stands with Noble by the half way mark of the season.

Bonar will need to show something. No real defined position and can't get continuity with his body.

J. Walker was delisted while Noble was general manager at Brisbane. Not a great start. His form last year was more than deserving of another year, but it will be interesting to see where he plays this year.

Menadue, meh. He'll have to have quite an impact if he gets another gig considering he is mature age.

Atley, hard to see what happens with him, will depend on how he is utilised in the game plan. Same goes with Dumont. Dumont has age on his side.

Kyron will want to make every post a winner. Is in ripping nick, but that needs to transfer to him making consistent impact on the field.
Click to expand...

Depending upon ladder position, injuries etc, I reckon we'd make at least another 6-7-8 changes to the list at the end of this year. Which would mean we'd be similar to Carlton a few years ago in clearing out ~50% of the list over 2 drafts. Cut it till it bleeds, then cut some more. Then depending upon the success (relatively speaking) of the new players coming in, there might be one more harsh cut in 2022 before they go the stabilisation approach.

It'll be a good time to be an experienced player at North. A fine chance to get a front-loaded contract before the young blokes earning capacity take over.

Blokes like Ziebs & Atley, Garner (and anyone else with contracts ending this year) wouldn't want to be meh in 2021...
 
There is a sound rationale for maintaining players like Tom C and Josh Walker. However, given North’s present position, I’m not so sure it holds up for us. If, in a nice dream eventuality, say North were flying this season and ensconced in the top four. Suddenly, Goldstein or Tarrant (or both!) are forced to sit out a batch of games. I’d be very confident in both Tom and Josh being able to come straight in and keep our structure intact for the short term. If we were forced to include less experienced players in that scenario, I could see us getting into a hole much more readily. However, as I said above, it might not be requirement for us, given our present position.

* Apologies to Josh as he is a better player than that. I just don’t see him being in the best 22 of a challenging team.


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Snake_Baker said:
It's not a nice topic, but ultimately 3 players must make way every year.

View attachment 1047189

- Garner, Hall & Tyson must get on the park and play consistent seniors.
- I think Hayden and Bonar are fighting for a list spot. I can't see them both making the cut.
- J. Walker will be performance based. I expect he will do enough again.
- It doesn't look good for Will Walker if he can't get a sustained run.
- Menadue is a coin toss.
- Big TC might keep a rookie spot.
- I won't be surprised if Dumont ends up in trade talks.
Click to expand...

Honestly, looking at that list you could make decent arguments for 3/4 of them being at risk of not being here next year, whether that be through trading, delisting, or potentially even retiring.

I think the highest risk players are those who were retained last year on a one year contract. Fortunately for them I think the majority were retained on a "if they can stay healthy they'll be around for a long time" basis, and realistically they just need to develop 'decent' form and maintain fitness in order to get recontracted (and probably on better terms).

Will have my eye on Dumont, because even though I'm a massive fan of his, what we did with midfield recruitment in the offseason leaves some serious question marks over his long term ability to hold a spot and he would also probably have a fair few genuine suitors at other clubs. How we use him this year will be telling. If we determine that he'd be phased out, or even just at significant risk of being phased out, within a couple of years but he has good/great trade currency right now, we would be mad not to capitalise. Would bloody hate to see him go, but footy is ruthless like that.

Taz may end up in a similar situation to Higgo, which might also be what saves Josh Walker.

Connor Menadue needs to show why we recruited him ASAP.

There's also a nonzero chance some of our extremely promising younger players ask for a trade, though arguably that's not what this thread is about.
 
Snake_Baker said:
It's not a nice topic, but ultimately 3 players must make way every year.

View attachment 1047189

- Garner, Hall & Tyson must get on the park and play consistent seniors.
- I think Hayden and Bonar are fighting for a list spot. I can't see them both making the cut.
- J. Walker will be performance based. I expect he will do enough again.
- It doesn't look good for Will Walker if he can't get a sustained run.
- Menadue is a coin toss.
- Big TC might keep a rookie spot.
- I won't be surprised if Dumont ends up in trade talks.
Click to expand...

Atley - we're never going to see anything better from him, but he's only 28. A free agent so it could go any way. He may want a fresh opportunity, he may want to stay, he may be shipped off, but the best he could hope for is a 1yr deal unless he has a surprisingly great year.
Bosenavulagi - 20yo steak knives. Would have to be a serious spud to not be given a chance
Bonar - Needs to have a good year. Showed little last year.
Campbell - Enters his 10th season having never played more than 9 games in a season. Sometimes you have to accept that a bloke just isn't at the standard. Awful, awful contract that wasn't his fault.
Davies-Uniacke - Could be anything. Sign him up
Dumont - RFA so the ball's in his court to some extent.
Hall - Gone if he can't cement a spot.
Garner - Can't be on the injury list forever and hold a spot. Make or break.
Hayden - I like him. Would like to think he's worth persisting with.
Larkey - The key to the forward line. Sign him up
McDonald - Can't see him or the club wanting him to go anywhere.
McGuinness - Probably a no.
McKay - Looks good. Should get another deal.
Menadue - Literally the last bloke on the list. Who knows? Up to him to show what he has.
Perez - he'll be OK.
Tarrant - The word was that he was disenchanted at the end of 2020. The club has to step up for him to want to recommit.
Tyson - Another stupid Scott 2018-19 contract. Has delivered nothing so it would take an amazing turnaround for him to keep his career going.
J.Walker - As a journeyman, he's expendable. Good enough to fill a role, not good enough to demand it.
P.Walker - Dunno. Like most rookies he starts with no expectations.
W.Walker - Last chance. Show something or he's gone.
Ziebell - Not many 30yo club captains would enter their 12th season having never cemented a role and still being experimented with. Needs a big year.

My guess
Out: Campbell, Hall, Garner, McGuinness, Tyson, W.Walker
50/50: Bonar, Dumont, Menadue, J.Walker, P.Walker
Probably OK: Bosenavulagi, Hayden
FA - up to them: Atley, Tarrant, Ziebell
Keep: Davies-Uniacke, Larkey, McDonald, McKay, Perez
 
Marstermind said:
Atley - we're never going to see anything better from him, but he's only 28. A free agent so it could go any way. He may want a fresh opportunity, he may want to stay, he may be shipped off, but the best he could hope for is a 1yr deal unless he has a surprisingly great year.
Bosenavulagi - 20yo steak knives. Would have to be a serious spud to not be given a chance
Bonar - Needs to have a good year. Showed little last year.
Campbell - Enters his 10th season having never played more than 9 games in a season. Sometimes you have to accept that a bloke just isn't at the standard. Awful, awful contract that wasn't his fault.
Davies-Uniacke - Could be anything. Sign him up
Dumont - RFA so the ball's in his court to some extent.
Hall - Gone if he can't cement a spot.
Garner - Can't be on the injury list forever and hold a spot. Make or break.
Hayden - I like him. Would like to think he's worth persisting with.
Larkey - The key to the forward line. Sign him up
McDonald - Can't see him or the club wanting him to go anywhere.
McGuinness - Probably a no.
McKay - Looks good. Should get another deal.
Menadue - Literally the last bloke on the list. Who knows? Up to him to show what he has.
Perez - he'll be OK.
Tarrant - The word was that he was disenchanted at the end of 2020. The club has to step up for him to want to recommit.
Tyson - Another stupid Scott 2018-19 contract. Has delivered nothing so it would take an amazing turnaround for him to keep his career going.
J.Walker - As a journeyman, he's expendable. Good enough to fill a role, not good enough to demand it.
P.Walker - Dunno. Like most rookies he starts with no expectations.
W.Walker - Last chance. Show something or he's gone.
Ziebell - Not many 30yo club captains would enter their 12th season having never cemented a role and still being experimented with. Needs a big year.

My guess
Out: Campbell, Hall, Garner, McGuinness, Tyson, W.Walker
50/50: Bonar, Dumont, Menadue, J.Walker, P.Walker
Probably OK: Bosenavulagi, Hayden
FA - up to them: Atley, Tarrant, Ziebell
Keep: Davies-Uniacke, Larkey, McDonald, McKay, Perez
Click to expand...
Very close imo.

The cull at the end of 2020 was always the first instalment in what was expected to be a much deeper cut given how poor the list was.

I don't expect the delistings at end 2021 to be as many as 2020 but I expect them to be significant - around 10-12 I imagine.

That will make it 60% of the playing list turned over in 2 years as well as 90% of the coaching group.

It will then be up to the new breed to take us forward from an unacceptably long period of mediocrity - I support these moves and look forward to watching developments unfold.
 
Surprising in some ways given the massive cull last year but I could make a case - easily for several players to go without even getting into more contentious calls, injury / retirement or opportunities to trade out FA's to mutual benefit:

For mine Bonar, Tyson, Campbell, Walker, Hall, Walker W are all pretty easy calls if nothing changes this year. Of these Hall & J. Walker are the ones that are easiest to hold onto for good depth.

From there you have Garner and Ziebell both of whom arguably need some serious luck with body.
 
Bonar, Tyson and Campbell would need a miracle.

Garner, Hall and W Walker need big years but at least I see them getting selected in the 22 at times.

And whilst not out of contract, I expect Turner will be given chances but a new coaching panel may move onto shiny new toys if he does not impress.
 
I think cat B rookies can be listed for upto 3 years?
Surely that means we keep mcguiness on the list considering he really isnt taking a spot from anyone.
Kids been playing well and cat B's can actually play seniors now so he could be in line for a game at some point.
Shame he got injured because he was actually making a name for himself.
 
Rod Stroker said:
Astonishing that we haven't extended LDU and Larkey already. Two of our most important players that the future of our club will be shaped around. Wouldn't want them to still be unsigned come seasons end.
Click to expand...

Their agents have probably told them to hold off.
 
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