I think you're being overly pessimistic.
And I dont think you understand the size of the hole we found ourselves in 2 years ago.
Effectively we started rebuilding a list from scratch starting in 2015 (plus Cripps and Docherty) due to screwing up every single draft and trade from 2008-2014.
Sadly we dont have the concessions that GWS and GCS have. That said, we have defacto used those concessions to add in extra depth and prize some of those low picks off the Giants for a discount.
I know we are coming from a long way back and am not expecting much in terms of wins this year...but to say 'we will not be even close to ready for the nexst 3-4 years' even if we got Fyfe, is overly negative.
No, its really not. Over the last two years, we have delisted 28 players. Thats over half the list. We have largely replaced them with 18 -20 year olds. No team of kids wins flags. They are going to need 50-100 games (3-5 years) before they come good and are functioning as a team.
4 years is a long time in footy and realistically we should be ready to contend in that time...to think we will miss the 8 for the next 4 years is crazy.
We will absolutely miss the 8 in 2017, 18 and 19 and will be pushing for the 8 in 2020 (maybe finishing in the 8 if everything clicks over the next 3 years).
The top 4 window opens from 2021 onwards when we should be aiming to push into the top 4. It is 2021 that the list assembled in (2015-2019) should start to peak.
Doing it any other way is a shortcut. It undermines the foundations we are building at present, and weakens our strongest team in the vital 2021 and onwards timeframe.
And it's not the Judd/Messiah complex...in this hypothetical Fyfe would come free
Whats the point? We wont have a finals capable side around him till 2020-21 and by then Simpson, Murphy, Kruezer, Gibbs, Curnow, Thomas, Rowe and Casboult will all be gone or have one foot out the door. Fyfe will be 30 odd when the window opens.
His best years will be spent pushing us a few spots up the ladder during the important years of 2017-2019 when we need to be finishing low on the ladder, stockpiling draft picks and getting in talented kids.
Even worse, getting him would be selling false hope to many. Fools would want to add in even more players (trading away those draft picks for established older guns) for a tilt at a flag while Murphy etc are all still playing. This results in us undermining our own foundations going forwards. Then it all comes crashing down and we find ourselves in 2021 onwards with no depth, no young talent coming through and back to square one. We've been down that path before.
and it's not all on him to do everything like Judd...we'd have a good team around him with the likes of Docherty, Cripps, Weitering and our other talented kids.
Judd was running around with 3 number 1 draft picks, and Walker (a number 2) plus the best FF in the competition in Fevola. We also had Waite, Betts and others in his time. Our top end talent was elite - our bottom six were rubbish though, and we had no other kids coming through (and stank up every single draft and trade after he got here from 2008-14 barring Cripps and Doch who both only came on the scene after Judd left).
This time we do it properly. We build a list with talent all over the ground that will mostly be aged 20-27 when our window opens in 2021, in order to build sustained success post that year.
We're a third of the way there by the way (the back line is all but locked in for the next decade). We now need a half dozen A grade or Elite mids to grow alongside Cripps (all of whom will be playing and at the peak of their powers in the 2021-2025 window) an A grade ruckman for the same period, and at least 1 x 60 goal+ KPF (also must be kicking 60+ goals per year for the same period).
This is a
Journey remember. I know you want to get there sooner, but hurrying it up and speeding means we are more likely to crash and never reach the destination at all.
Patience my padawan. Green shoots and all that.