Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread - The sequel - I know what SOS did last Sumner

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Azul

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From what I've heard about this draft, that would be the wrong move. Sounds like it's pretty ordinary past the top 10.
I don't think there are many what one could call standout 'stars', per se. Plenty of "good, ordinary footballers", perhaps.

I just don't rate Mitchell as anything but a solid b-grader who happens to get a heap of possessions.
 

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Blue__Balls

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I would not be giving up pick #5 for any trade involving Marchbank/GWS unless pick #8 was coming back, and we got se better scraps.

A deal of
OUT: #5, #2017 2nd (Worth more than our 2016 2nd to them)
IN: #8, Marchbank, Pickett/Ahern/Corr and McKenna

Or

OUT: #5, 2017 2nd, 2017 3rd (both worth more to them than our 2016 2nd and 3rd's)
IN: #8, Marchbank, Steele

But i really want to keep pick #5, honestly. 2017 2nd for Marchbank.


Or if they need a higher first to get pick #1 off Ess, trade our 2017 1st. 2017 1st for Pick #8 and Marchbank, or 2017 1st for 2016 GWS 1st (#16ish) and 2017 Geel 1st (#18ish) and Marchbank.


Option
A: #8, Marchbank, (injured talent), McKenna, #23, #40, 2016 WBD 3rd, Carl 2017 1st, Carl 2017 3rd.
B: #8, Marchank, Steele, #23, #40, WBD 2016 3rd, Carl 2017 1st
C: #5, #23, #40, WBD 2016 3rd, Carl 2017 1st & 3rd, Marchbank
D: #5, #8, #23, #40, Marchbank, WBD 2016 3rd, Carl 2017 2nd & 3rd
E: #5, #16, #18, #23, #40, WBD 3rd, Marchbank, Carl 2017 2nd & 3rd.

Which option is best?

Personal preference would be; D, E, C, B, A

We might snag a player like McKenna in every scenario as well



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Wouldn't be including our 2017 first in any scenario, personally. I've touched on that in another post, but the TL;DR version is that I'd be concerned about dropping out of the 2017 first round now and finding ourselves unable to get back in. Additionally, although opinions will vary, I do think we're a reasonable chance to be bottom 3-4 next year. I reckon we're more likely to finish lower next year than we have this year, compared to our chances of moving higher up the ladder in 2017.

I'm also not sure we'd get 7 back (GWS have 7, not 8), as I don't think 5 and 15 would be enough to get pick 1 from Essendon. They'll be wanting 5 and 7 for it, and rightly so.
 
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HARKER

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Only deal involving pick 5 with GWS I'd consider would be Marchbank, Tomlinson, corr, Stewart and 17.

Key posts sorted. Mids to come next year and the following.

If they wanted to throw in Pickett I wouldn't complain.
Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to end all guns :)

For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
 

HereComesJuddy

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Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to beat all guns :)

For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
Lol. I really just want Marchbank, Tomlinson and corr. Even if it just cost us pick 5, I'd say it's a win for us.

Stewart I see as a player they just don't need and they would prefer to get him off their list.

Pickett, not sure about. Worth a dip if comes for cheap.

But yes. I'm all for ainsworth with pick 5. But i know kpp is what we need and if we could sort that this year, we are in a better spot than what I would have expected
 
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Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to end all guns :)

For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
We did get a #3, #10, #21 and a back up ruckman for #28.
 

HARKER

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We did get a #3, #10, #21 and a back up ruckman for #28.
True, but the quality is a little different here and without doing GWS too many favours in taking Marchbank, Tomlinson and Corr off their hands.

No doubt they could live without Stewart and Pickett is as much an unknown as let's say Ahern is....or Collingwoods' Scharenberg.

I dare you to take that to the GWS board.........I double dare you. :p
 

Dramoth

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End of first round would be the go.
No way they can be given a top end first rounder.....well....sort of no way.
This is the AFL we are talking about... you know the only sporting organisation that makes it's own rules up as it goes along.
 

Sector 7G

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Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to end all guns :)

For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
You need to stop looking at where the players were rated when they were drafted and consider how they are rated now. Do nothing for 2 years you can easily slide from early in the first to late in the second in value.

Also just because 1 head recruiter rates a player highly doesn't mean everyone else (or even anyone else ) does. Take Jarrod Grant - Clayton rated him at 5, Port had him in the mid 20s and Port probably over rated him.
 

Quazza

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You need to stop looking at where the players were rated when they were drafted and consider how they are rated now. Do nothing for 2 years you can easily slide from early in the first to late in the second in value.

.
would we be happy to do that?

say we picked Joey JoJo with pick 4, 2 years ago. Poor Joey JoJo though, has had a slew of injuries and is yet to hit the park.....

This board would absolutely melt down if we just chucked him into some deal as "steak knives"
 

FlowersByIrene

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Wouldn't be including our 2017 first in any scenario, personally. I've touched on that in another post, but the TL:DR version is that I'd be concerned about dropping out of the 2017 first round now and finding ourselves unable to get back in. Additionally, although opinions will vary, I do think we're a reasonable chance to be bottom 3-4 next year. I reckon we're more likely to finish lower next year than we have this year, compared to our chances of moving higher up the ladder in 2017.

I'm also not sure we'd get 7 back (GWS have 7, not 8), as I don't think 5 and 15 would be enough to get pick 1 from Essendon. They'll be wanting 5 and 7 for it, and rightly so.
I think there is absolutely zero chance we finish bottom 3 next year. Especially if we did the trades i suggested, and trade for Mitchell (ecffictively Touhy and a little extra) no way we wouldnt improve.
 

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HARKER

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You need to stop looking at where the players were rated when they were drafted and consider how they are rated now. Do nothing for 2 years you can easily slide from early in the first to late in the second in value.

Also just because 1 head recruiter rates a player highly doesn't mean everyone else (or even anyone else ) does. Take Jarrod Grant - Clayton rated him at 5, Port had him in the mid 20s and Port probably over rated him.
You may notice that I did say that you have to have a look at the quality of player.

Marchbank, Tomlinson and Corr won't be reeled in with our #5. They're all quality and required players at GWS......and then....along with GWS throwing in Pickett, Stewart and...and...pick #17. :)

I know HereComesJuddy was a little tongue in cheek, but let's just say that may be just a little bit too rich.
 

Sector 7G

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would we be happy to do that?

say we picked Joey JoJo with pick 4, 2 years ago. Poor Joey JoJo though, has had a slew of injuries and is yet to hit the park.....
No because you need to play the hand you are dealt,but if Joey JoJo after 2 years requested to be traded to St Kilda like Freeman we would be lucky to get a mid second rounder because there is a risk we will be a player that never gets on the park and even if he does won't be the player he was thought to be as a junior. What do you think Collingwood would get offered for Sharonburg now if he wanted out?
 

Coops93

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You need to stop looking at where the players were rated when they were drafted and consider how they are rated now. Do nothing for 2 years you can easily slide from early in the first to late in the second in value.

Also just because 1 head recruiter rates a player highly doesn't mean everyone else (or even anyone else ) does. Take Jarrod Grant - Clayton rated him at 5, Port had him in the mid 20s and Port probably over rated him.
Further to this there is a difference between a players worth on the open market and what a player is worth to a club.

For example: Tuohy's market value might be about pick 25. But to Carlton he's worth pick 15.

So for Carlton it is not worth trading Tuohy, as they believe is of more value to keep at the club than what they could get for him*

What GWS value Marchank and the others at would be different to there market value. As they spent pick 6 and pick 4 (Marchbank and Pickett) they would probably value them higher internally, as they had to spend allot to get them. In the open market I'd say Marchbank would probably be around 20 and Pickett probably in the 30s, maybe even less. But because GWS paid such a price for them a short time ago they will be worth much more than that to them. So it is likely we will need to pay above market to get them.

If that made any sense at all to anyone :)

*they were made up values. I don't necessarily believe this is his worth to us or the general market.
 

Blue__Balls

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I think there is absolutely zero chance we finish bottom 3 next year. Especially if we did the trades i suggested, and trade for Mitchell (ecffictively Touhy and a little extra) no way we wouldnt improve.
You're within your rights to think that - I simply have a differing view of where we and other teams will be at next year.

This isn't the place for an in-depth debate about it, but I'd have GC, Essendon and Freo improving, Brisbane 50/50, Melbourne and St Kilda continuing to build. Richmond, Port and North fall away. Our best gets better, but with a focus on youth, our worst probably gets worse. Depends on the timing of our form spikes.

I don't think we're a lock for bottom three, but it's a realistic possibility.

If I'd asked you last September what Freo's chances of being bottom three were...?
 

ferrisb

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Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to end all guns :) For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
That trade goes through and a statue won't be the only thing erect...
 
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passmark

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With regard to how much credence you put on a players original draft position........If the #1 ranked junior in the country at 16 years of age hadn't played for almost two years, where would he go in the national draft?
 

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You're within your rights to think that - I simply have a differing view of where we and other teams will be at next year.

This isn't the place for an in-depth debate about it, but I'd have GC, Essendon and Freo improving, Brisbane 50/50, Melbourne and St Kilda continuing to build. Richmond, Port and North fall away. Our best gets better, but with a focus on youth, our worst probably gets worse. Depends on the timing of our form spikes.

I don't think we're a lock for bottom three, but it's a realistic possibility.

If I'd asked you last September what Freo's chances of being bottom three were...?
Well i dont know Freo as well as I do Carlton.

For example last year plenty of people thought we'd finish bottom 4, i knew we wouldnt. I know Carlton.

But yeah, different opinions, im excited for next year
 

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You're within your rights to think that - I simply have a differing view of where we and other teams will be at next year.

This isn't the place for an in-depth debate about it, but I'd have GC, Essendon and Freo improving, Brisbane 50/50, Melbourne and St Kilda continuing to build. Richmond, Port and North fall away. Our best gets better, but with a focus on youth, our worst probably gets worse. Depends on the timing of our form spikes.

I don't think we're a lock for bottom three, but it's a realistic possibility.

If I'd asked you last September what Freo's chances of being bottom three were...?
Fremantle really aren't that good and they've lost a lot of what they did have going for them.
Sandilands is unreliable at best.....Pavlich is done.....Ballantyne is gone.....Mundy is damaged.....Mayne is leaving....and if you're relying on Harley Bennell and Brad Hill.........:eek:

Brisbane? Can't see how they will be ahead of us, even with Beans coming back.
Gold Coast? Don't trust them nor their coach.
Essendon? We just don't know what will front up next year.
Richmond. I'd be very disappointed should we not be ahead of them next year.
Melbourne & St.Kilda: Unknowns for a lot of reasons.
North Melbourne: Can't see them holding up next year.

We may well finish last but anything lower than 12th would be a real disappointment for the club.
 

Blue__Balls

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Wow! This pick #5 is going to be a gun to end all guns :)

For pick #5 this year, we want a pick #6 back-man, a pick #9 who we've been keen on for a long time, a pick #14 young KPD, a pick #27............and throw in a first rounder with #17, all for good measure.

If SOS can pull the wool over GWS's eyes to this measure, we should erect a gold statue of him, before years end. :)


EDIT: .............. and a #4 Pickett as well, just for a little more fun.
Yeah, it's well overs - I guess that's the point.

If GWS are desperate to get McGrath, and feel that to do so they'll need Pick 1, we should do everything we can to extract as much value as possible.

We're not trading them pick 5, we're trading them the means to secure pick 1.

I reckon if anyone is going to help GWS out with this situation, though, it's Freo.
- Pick 3 and change for 7, 15 and McCarthy.
- GWS can then trade 3 and 17 to Essendon for Pick 1.
- Freo a chance to get SPS, English and McCarthy.
- GWS get McGrath and use their later picks to grab the best of their Academy kids.
- Essendon get one of McLuggage/Brodie depending on who Brisbane take at two, as well as getting Pick 17.

EDIT: The "change" referenced in the Freo/GWS deal could be later picks, but I reckon Freo would happily toss Barlow into that equation, which would probably suit GWS who seem to like topping up with experienced older blokes.
 

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It's a pity we lost Earls Pearls.

We could handle a dose of dumb 's plums, though.
unfortunately not connected in any way shape or form. unless it's poring over other teams lists for players who aren't getting games, i keep my head down at this time of year. i don't know what value to put on players, find that a bit testesing. i tend to think that bigfooty turns into a mass of grown adult men playing shops, though.

anyway... play on
 
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