Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[Zlatan]

Geelong would be very stupid to put all their eggs in the Ablett basket. They don't really seem to have a lot of good kids coming through yet - they'd effectively be delaying any renewal of their list.

BF rumours so take it for what it's worth but they're into Hopper and Smith big time. I think Ablett will be in the 'nice to have' basket but they won't tear down Kardinia Park if he doesn't come.

 

[LanceRomance]

Gary doesn't seem to give a shit about a club that's paying him to do so.
Sooner we don't have to listen to about all things Ablett, the better. Would like to see him retire or be forced into retirement.

Not a fan?

 

[passmark]

BF rumours so take it for what it's worth but they're into Hopper and Smith big time. I think Ablett will be in the 'nice to have' basket but they won't tear down Kardinia Park if he doesn't come.

Junior returning is probably worth 5k extra members

 

[LanceRomance]

Junior returning is probably worth 5k extra members

Yeah. Big story for them in the off season. Going to be sickening.

 

[HARKER]

Not a fan?

Not when you have made a commitment but 'choose' not to follow through with it.

The whole Ablett 'will he play, won't he play' saga is tired. Just don't play Gary.....again.....ever.

 

[Neadsy83]

Seriously?

A 3rd rounder at best. Geelong won't be shelling out for an old bloke who'll play 5 games, get injured, come back 4 weeks later do a hammy and then retire.

He is contracted so they may need to pay a bit more, personally I would give up one late 2nd for him.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Not when you have made a commitment but 'choose' not to follow through with it.

The whole Ablett 'will he play, won't he play' saga is tired. Just don't play Gary.....again.....ever.

Can't agree with this more.

Could have stayed and been a 3 time premiership player and an all time legend of Geelong. Instead he went to chase the cash. Thats Okay.. thats his decision (not what I woudl have done, if I was in his shoes)... but see your bloody commitment out. You want the cash, you bloody hold up your end of the deal.

His leadership there has been shithouse too. Just let a horrible culture develop underneath him. He should have been really setting the standard and showing the kids the right way, but he didnt really seem to care.

Now he wants to leave them high and dry? Piss off.

 

[Azul]

He is contracted so they may need to pay a bit more, personally I would give up one late 2nd for him.

I would expect a second round pick to play at least 5 years.

Still getting plenty of the footy but he is frequently injured.

 

[Gethelred]

Seriously?

A 3rd rounder at best. Geelong won't be shelling out for an old bloke who'll play 5 games, get injured, come back 4 weeks later do a hammy and then retire.

Are you serious, at all?

I'm not talking about what you'd pay, what's he worth to Gold Coast, in terms of sending a message to any other victorians thinking of taking the money then pissing off back home when you're almost done?

What's he worth to Geelong, the side that didn't want to let him go, where he has considerable history and would make of them a more credible short term premiership threat? If they come top 4 next year, all he need do is play enough games to hit form and finals.

But, and I'm bringing this back to what I originally said, there's simply no way Geelong can get Smith, Hopper and Ablett all in in the same year without a first round pick. Hopper is worth a late first/early second, and Ablett's an impossible trade to place a value on; you're either a chump for trading him, or a chump for getting him in.

 

[Keyza]

They surely can't land Hopper and Ablett in the same season, without a first round pick. They just can't; it would fly in the face of their trading for the last ten years, where they have gone in to get their man, and done the deal in a way to serve both sides.

If you shaft another club, it'll come back to bite you later, and I can't see how they get it done without shafting GWS and/or GC, or really selling the farm (trading Harry Taylor/Hawkins) which defeats the purpose.

Remember that they have our second pick which will be around 20/21. If they lose Motlop as a free agent they will receive a compo pick which they can use.

 

[Azul]

Are you serious, at all?

What would Silvagni do?

No sane recruiter would give up a pick in the top 35 for a 33 year old.

If Gold Coast demand such a pick, Chris Scott would rightly say "sorry Gary, thanks for the memories".

 

[Gethelred]

Remember that they have our second pick which will be around 20/21. If they lose Motlop as a free agent they will receive a compo pick which they can use.

I do remember that; just, if you trade them to GWS for Hopper and Smith - overs in Smith's case, unders in Hopper's, so it evens out - you can't use those picks to grab Ablett, and vice versa.

 

[Keyza]

so kelly looks like staying.
Hopper and smith to geelong.
Whitfield to the Hawks.
Dusty to the roos.
Carlton gets jack redpath.

Happy days.

 

[Gethelred]

What would Silvagni do?

No sane recruiter would give up a pick in the top 35 for a 33 year old.

If Gold Coast demand such a pick, Chris Scott would rightly say "sorry Gary, thanks for the memories".

Agree completely with that. SOS, on visible evidence, deals hard but fair, and has very specific things he's looking for, and suffice to say a 33 year old is not on that list.

I will say, though, as he's a contracted player, that it is on Geelong to come up with a trade which GC will facilitate, not the other way around.

My argument has more to do with the how different both sides will value Ablett, and how there is simply no way to get it done without one side or the other getting shafted. Never mind how, if you get Ablett for more than the third you suggested, how do you then pay for more than just Devon Smith?

Smith and Ablett, sure. Hopper and Ablett is a bit of a stretch, but all three of them?

 

[FairKouta]

Where has this info come from?

jungle drums

 

[Keyza]

so kelly looks like staying.
Hopper and smith to geelong.
Whitfield to the Hawks.
Dusty to the roos.
Carlton gets jack redpath.

I hope Gibbs and Casboult don't leave then.

 

[Keyza]

Ablett alone will cost heaps, and you can bet that as he is still contracted next year at G.C. Geelong would have to take over that contract and that will not be cheap.........they may get Ablett and Smith, but they are unlikely to get Hopper as well.........they would have to sell too much (as you said) to get it done and with what.......???

Ablett had a heavily front ended contract with GC. Next season he is on not much, which is why GC are not too happy with him.

 

[JustaBattler]

jungle drums

The same informed jungle drums that had Kelly a 100% certainty at Carlton

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Let me pose a question; in this scenario, but with Geelong having every pick between 10 and 35, what's Ablett worth? What deal do they get done?

It's an impossible trade; if Caleb Marchbank required a first round pick, based purely on what he had shown to date and his potential, surely Ablett, a Brownlow medalist, a former club captain and BNF winner, and a number of other accolades to go with all that, is too.

Put very simply, why would GC do that trade? Two second rounders for their best player? Would we accept that for Murphy?

Ablett has 1 year left, maybe a second. That factors into the trade value. I'd say picks 25 and 33 are sufficient. If one pick, pick 19.

 

[Gethelred]

Ablett has 1 year left, maybe a second. That factors into the trade value. I'd say picks 25 and 33 are sufficient. If one pick, pick 19.

My thinking, too.

Geelong'd been hoping we came last, to get that pick or thereabouts. I'm pretty happy to disappoint them.

 

[Gingerbread man]

GC want mature players, they had a shitload of early picks last year and will have quite a few this year.

From a draft/kid perspective they won't be far off being nearly brand new again.

Motlop is a best 22 player, bottom 10 type. You take what you can get out of a crap situation and he's well available

One thing they won't do is just let Gary retire and get nothing

With a lot of young kids you need leaders, Motlop is not a leader, he is no use to GC at all

 

[F_therest]

Yeah. Big story for them in the off season. Going to be sickening.

It would seriously piss me off if Geelong get Hopper, Smith & Ablett...or even 2 of them to go for another flag tilt.

Bit of jealousy i'll admit at just how good they've been at acquiring talent, after the likes of Tuohy, Henderson & Dangerfield to stay up the top of the ladder.
Add getting Hopper, Smith & Ablett to that list in the last 3 years and it's just ridiculous.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

He is contracted so they may need to pay a bit more, personally I would give up one late 2nd for him.

Which is what they'll get, with a Motlop chucked in...working the "system"!!

 

[raymagoo]

Let me pose a question; in this scenario, but with Geelong having every pick between 10 and 35, what's Ablett worth? What deal do they get done?

It's an impossible trade; if Caleb Marchbank required a first round pick, based purely on what he had shown to date and his potential, surely Ablett, a Brownlow medalist, a former club captain and BNF winner, and a number of other accolades to go with all that, is too.

Put very simply, why would GC do that trade? Two second rounders for their best player? Would we accept that for Murphy?

If Murphy was verging
On 34 and missed over a third of the season I'd do it in a heartbeat

 

[Soapy V]

GC want mature players, they had a shitload of early picks last year and will have quite a few this year.

From a draft/kid perspective they won't be far off being nearly brand new again.

Motlop is a best 22 player, bottom 10 type. You take what you can get out of a crap situation and he's well available

One thing they won't do is just let Gary retire and get nothing

Depends who new coach and list manager will be. Don't really know yet but I would expect a heap of changes