Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

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Iamcarlton

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There are 2 massive differences, in that 1. Gibbs is contracted (which you mentioned, but ignored that his contract was front ended), and 2. the Swans couldn't afford to keep Mitchell under the salary cap.
I think the Mitchell trade was about spot on . And i dont think other clubs care about whether Carlton front ends contracts other than the possibility of taking advantage of that if possible . Again i think yes there is a slight advantage to the club of the player that is contracted but thats dependant on the quality of the player its minimal imo . Adelaide arent going to pay overs for Gibbs at 29 yrs of age instead as weve already seen they are happy to put their faith in the Crouch brothers . Who have stepped up this year in particular Matt and any of their other young players .
 

Neadsy83

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Keen for Gibbs to stay. Murph Gibbs Curnow Cripps Kelly SPS... now thats a midfield
Which ever way it goes down we will have a quailty midfield by 2020. Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, SPS, Cunners with Hopper, Rayner, 2018 1st & Shiel as a FA.

Balic would be an ideal replacement for Gibbs, Murphy to be replaced using our 2019 1st in a trade. It would obviously work out better if we get some form of value back for Murph & Gibbs but not the end of the world if we don't.

The ideal scenario would be to pick up Kelly & Hopper using Gibbs and pick 3, nothing more. At worst a pick exchange using our 2018 2nd and the GWS 2nd.
 

Gethelred

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There are 2 massive differences, in that 1. Gibbs is contracted (which you mentioned, but ignored that his contract was front ended), and 2. the Swans couldn't afford to keep Mitchell under the salary cap.
Not to mention that Mitchell was surplus to Sydney's requirements; when you have a starting midfield of Hannebury, Kennedy, and Parker, with Papley, Heeney, Mills, Cunningham etc running through it, you don't need an accumulator.

Gibbs, on the other hand, is a pivotal member of our midfield. For us to get rid of him, regardless of his age, would risk us going the way of Melbourne, without adequate compensation.

I think the Mitchell trade was about spot on . And i dont think other clubs care about whether Carlton front ends contracts other than the possibility of taking advantage of that if possible . Again i think yes there is a slight advantage to the club of the player that is contracted but thats dependant on the quality of the player its minimal imo . Adelaide arent going to pay overs for Gibbs at 29 yrs of age instead as weve already seen they are happy to put their faith in the Crouch brothers . Who have stepped up this year in particular Matt and any of their other young players .
It's perfectly fine for them to not provide for us what we'd accept for Gibbs; we'll just keep him, and he'll remember it as the club that failed to pay what he's worth.

And I reject your implied notion that Gibbs only has a few years left. He's not slowing down, he's getting better with each year he's played in his late twenties; his skills and thinking are the basis that he plays by, not athleticism or speed. He could foreseeably play for five years, from this point. What it comes down to, ultimately, is that if they refuse to pay us what he's worth, it sends two messages; one, that Adelaide will try to poach your players, but if you hold firm they go away eventually, and two, that we value Gibbs more than they do.
 

Stamos

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I think the Mitchell trade was about spot on . And i dont think other clubs care about whether Carlton front ends contracts other than the possibility of taking advantage of that if possible . Again i think yes there is a slight advantage to the club of the player that is contracted but thats dependant on the quality of the player its minimal imo .
It changes the trade value.
 

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Interesting article on the AFL website about Josh Kelly:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-29/what-giant-demand-will-see-kelly-head-south

Under Carlton it says:
Kelly's manager, Paul Connors, told Fox Sports last week he was obsessed with his clients winning premierships and most in the football industry believe Carlton is best positioned of the three candidates for long-term on-field success.
And in the conclusion:
The clubs' potential for on-field success will largely influence his decision, which most believe tilts the scales in Carlton's favour.

Although St Kilda's rebuild started two years earlier than Carlton's, there is a perception the Blues' youngsters – led by Cripps, Weitering, Charlie Curnow and Petrevski-Seton – will ultimately be better, while the Kangaroos have not had a top-five pick since drafting Ben Cunnington in 2009 and need an urgent injection of class.
 

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blue healer

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I hope that's not true. We need to build for 2020 and beyond and Gibbs won't be part of that.

Unless Adelaide are still being ***** I'd imagine that we'll try and talk him into going considering how hard we're willing to chase after Kelly.
Why would Gibbs be not part of 2020 and beyond?

Has been a resiliant player and will be 32 going into 2020.

This years retirees: Reiwoldt 35, Hodge 33, Murphy 35, Boyd 35, Watson 33, Thompson 34, Kelly 34, Gibson 34, Montagne 34, Mitchell 35 and there are others just as old or older like Waite, Petrie, Mackie, Lonergan, Simpson etc who all may go round again.

Think Gibbs will contribute for at least another 4 years if not seriously injured and it won't be his fault if we are not contenders any time soon.
 

Arr0w

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Why would Gibbs be not part of 2020 and beyond?

Has been a resiliant player and will be 32 going into 2020.

This years retirees: Reiwoldt 35, Hodge 33, Murphy 35, Boyd 35, Watson 33, Thompson 34, Kelly 34, Gibson 34, Montagne 34, Mitchell 35 and there are others just as old or older like Waite, Petrie, Mackie, Lonergan, Simpson etc who all may go round again.

Think Gibbs will contribute for at least another 4 years if not seriously injured and it won't be his fault if we are not contenders any time soon.
No concerns that he leaves as an UFA at the end of 2019, chasing more money and a possible flag? The club would be smart to trade him this year or next, as the picks/value would be better
 

Iamcarlton

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Not to mention that Mitchell was surplus to Sydney's requirements; when you have a starting midfield of Hannebury, Kennedy, and Parker, with Papley, Heeney, Mills, Cunningham etc running through it, you don't need an accumulator.

Gibbs, on the other hand, is a pivotal member of our midfield. For us to get rid of him, regardless of his age, would risk us going the way of Melbourne, without adequate compensation.


It's perfectly fine for them to not provide for us what we'd accept for Gibbs; we'll just keep him, and he'll remember it as the club that failed to pay what he's worth.

And I reject your implied notion that Gibbs only has a few years left. He's not slowing down, he's getting better with each year he's played in his late twenties; his skills and thinking are the basis that he plays by, not athleticism or speed. He could foreseeably play for five years, from this point. What it comes down to, ultimately, is that if they refuse to pay us what he's worth, it sends two messages; one, that Adelaide will try to poach your players, but if you hold firm they go away eventually, and two, that we value Gibbs more than they do.
I agree he is getting better as he gets older and ive mentioned before that i feel he could play till 35 . However i said he was 29 not he hasnt much time left . I feel that because he's ours and contracted we are expecting overs and fair enough he stays id prefer that anyway . I see Deledio has been mentioned in other posts and i see him as a good indicator of Gibbs worth as well . 1st and 3rd round pick which somebody correct me i assume is a later first and 3rd that may be around 45 why should we be expecting more than that ?
 
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BlueTongue

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Interesting article on the AFL website about Josh Kelly:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-29/what-giant-demand-will-see-kelly-head-south

Under Carlton it says:


And in the conclusion:
Also in the article it says that GWS will likely want Pick #3 and another first rounder or Player (we don't have a second rounder this year after giving that up to Geelong). Even if SOS plays hardball I cant see us getting out of it without giving up No#3 pick. Yet some on this board have very optimistic hopes that we'll get him and retain No #3. I mean what else would we have to give up?
 

blue healer

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No concerns that he leaves as an UFA at the end of 2019, chasing more money and a possible flag? The club would be smart to trade him this year or next, as the picks/value would be better
If we lose Gibbs now and don't get Kelly then I think our progress will stall a bit.

If we keep Gibbs and get Kelly I think we fast track our progress.

To answer your question with a question - Why would Gibbs then leave?
 

Soapy V

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No concerns that he leaves as an UFA at the end of 2019, chasing more money and a possible flag? The club would be smart to trade him this year or next, as the picks/value would be better
Gibbs may well have thought last year I need to move on for success. After this year he may well be looking around thinking I'm a chance to have success here the way we are going. A one club Premiership player would be a good feeling especially after enduring all the crap of the last decade
 

Arr0w

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If we lose Gibbs now and don't get Kelly then I think our progress will stall a bit.

If we keep Gibbs and get Kelly I think we fast track our progress.

To answer your question with a question - Why would Gibbs then leave?
As per my previous post: "No concerns that he leaves as an UFA at the end of 2019, chasing more money and a possible flag? The club would be smart to trade him this year or next, as the picks/value would be better"

From all the rumours, we already know that his contract was front-end loaded, so he is currently being paid under market value. If at the end of 2019, we are still outside the 8 (as I suspect), he can leave, chasing more money and a top 4 side, as an UFA and we have no control

Why would the club risk that?
 

Soapy V

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Daisy deserves a one year contract. He's been pretty good for most of the season, and he'd be a great mentor for the kids coming through.
I think deserves is a bit rich. Club owes him nothing. He has done very well out of his deal at Carlton for little return. Been okay this year but not exactly vital to our growth and I can't see him getting better. If the club wants to give him another year that's fine but I would hope he understands that a lot of it may be mentoring in the two's. With natural progression and another 8-10 new players in 2018 I hope he is not a regular.
 

Alice

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Gibbs may well have thought last year I need to move on for success. After this year he may well be looking around thinking I'm a chance to have success here the way we are going. A one club Premiership player would be a good feeling especially after enduring all the crap of the last decade
He may also have been embarrassed last year after the saga was made public and then Ad failed to pay the piper.
This year sit back and wait for any deal to be struck without the fanfare.
 

RobR

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That's what I worry about as well.....but no-one seems to think about this
I mean, think about the sort of offers CC will receive in a few years time. it's scary
If we are contending for a premiership they wont leave. If we snag 1 or 2 then they might seek a big payday elsewhere, but that's the way it goes these days.
 
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