Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

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4thchicken

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Given our recent trade history, perhaps the key to getting Kelly is to engineer an extra 1st round pick. As an example...

Pick 3 + future 3rd round pick -> dogs -> pick 9 +39 (3rd round) + future 1st round pick

Pick 9 + pick 38 (blues 3rd round) + pick 56 (blues 4th round) + future 1st round (blues) -> Kelly + player (list management trade) + pick 23 + 63

Net picks for 2017
23, 29, 39, 63 (+Kelly + player)

Net picks for 2018
Dogs 1st round, blues 2nd round, blues 4th round

Essentially GWS get a mid 1st round pick + early-mid future 1st round + list management help for Kelly + pick swaps to improve mid draft position this year

For the blues,
Kelly + improvements to draft mid position for 2017 costs at expense of this years 1st pick, a downgrade on future 1st picks and a future 3rd
 

SafeAsMilk

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Let me make it easier for you: if the price for Kelly is this year's first and next year's second, we should cash out.

At that point it's not about what GWS got for Treloar, what West Coast got for Judd, or any other historical scenario. It's about the given contractual situation, the given market mechanisms involved, and what that trade will do for our football team versus a variety of other scenarios on the table, including keeping the picks.

Kelly is not worth two quality players.
Do you mean "cash out" as in 'pull our offer' if Kelly costs a first round and second round pick?

To make it easier for YOU, I don't want to trade this year's first rounder.
 

FlowersByIrene

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It's important to understand what a contested possession (the definition changed in 2011) is when you highlight a comparison like that, but at no point was I suggesting Kelly is soft.

First possession stats would be more telling if you want to boil it down to an individual stat, but it's not one stat that makes my point. It's 1st possession, plus contested, plus clearance, plus goal assist, plus playmaker, plus score involvement, plus clangers, plus time in possession, etc.



Let me make it easier for you: if the price for Kelly is this year's first and next year's second, we should cash out. At that point it's not about what GWS got for Treloar, what West Coast got for Judd, or any other historical scenario.

What it is about is the given contractual situation, the given market mechanisms involved, and what that trade will do for our football team versus a variety of other scenarios on the table, including keeping the picks.

Kelly is not worth two quality players.
Kelly is worth two speculative non players though.
 

Blue_Fusion

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Why would Gibbs be not part of 2020 and beyond?

Has been a resiliant player and will be 32 going into 2020.

This years retirees: Reiwoldt 35, Hodge 33, Murphy 35, Boyd 35, Watson 33, Thompson 34, Kelly 34, Gibson 34, Montagne 34, Mitchell 35 and there are others just as old or older like Waite, Petrie, Mackie, Lonergan, Simpson etc who all may go round again.

Think Gibbs will contribute for at least another 4 years if not seriously injured and it won't be his fault if we are not contenders any time soon.
He'll be too old. We can't rely on a 32 year old in the middle. His impact on games will be significantly less than what Kelly will have in 2020 or even a player we draft this year.

If we think wisely about our future then trading Gibbs now for an early pick will be more beneficial.
 

SkyhorseTamer

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I'll spew if we dump Sheehan and retain Smedts
Why? Sheehan is 27 in November and Smedts has only turned 25 mid this year.

Neither has particularly high output/ nor been impressive this year and I'd suggest Smedts has the better ability to play a role for us in the future too. Either way its pretty damn 'meh'
 

mickelboy182

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Why? Sheehan is 27 in November and Smedts has only turned 25 mid this year.

Neither has particularly high output/ nor been impressive this year and I'd suggest Smedts has the better ability to play a role for us in the future too. Either way its pretty damn 'meh'
Sheehan has AFL qualities and Smedts has nothing.
 

SkyhorseTamer

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Sheehan has AFL qualities and Smedts has nothing.
Go on...? Not a very good argument so far...

How bout some reasoning?
Sheehan - Sub par agility and speed, can't jump, misses too many kicks and has struggled with his positioning all year
Smedts - Has talent but doesn't use it, has improved his tackling, doesn't find enough of the ball, isn't damaging with the ball from what I've seen.

How one is clearly better than the other is beyond me, especially as Smedts has shown an ability to do a defensive job.

Just to be clear I want them both cut, just can't fathom the reasoning behind such a strong point of view.
 

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Jimmae

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Sheehan has AFL qualities and Smedts has nothing.
Sheehan is physically cooked after multiple injury issues involving his groin, hip and hamstring (unsure if on the same leg). If he weren't, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
 

mickelboy182

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Sheehan is physically cooked after multiple injury issues involving his groin, hip and hamstring (unsure if on the same leg). If he weren't, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
That's fair, if the medicos can't see him getting over his issues then I can accept that.
 

Jimmae

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That's fair, if the medicos can't see him getting over his issues then I can accept that.
It looks to me like they gave him a full season to sort it out, and he hasn't come good.

If he could take a year off the system, and come back to someone in the AFL, that'd be great, but he'll be 28 or 29 by the time that happens.
 

Blue Pulse

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I feel our list management team have gone beyond year to year planning and are looking 2-3 years ahead. We have a number of boys under 20 who are quite talented so at this trade period, young talent may not be a priority. IF we were able to snare one of, or both Kelly and Hopper now, it may not be the greatest of timing but they are available now and will grow and learn our game plan by the time our younger group are starting to peak.
In 2 years we start stacking up on youngsters again and hopefully the odd free agent.
 

Bic

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Hearing Buckley is basically sitting in reserve seat number 1 for a list spot - will only be offered a contract if we have a spot post trade period.

Anyone else hearing similar?
Seems it's already being discussed in the list management thread, don't mind me.
 

Forever Blue

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Would be a bad look if Kelly finally nominates Carlton, and then we cannot get the deal done due to it costing to much.
And then move onto the cheaper Hopper option.
Might end the 'destination club' talk
If Kelly nominates, the deal has to get done.....for the clubs sake.
 

kjr8

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No, Riewoldt clones with better kicking skills don't get so easily shut out of the game:


And Kelly clones who look more physically developed at the same age are cheaper than Kelly:

Can't miss, sure fire, guaranteed, AA elite output then? Not prospect or potential.. guaranteed output.

That's what Kelly is now.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Moe B

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Would be a bad look if Kelly finally nominates Carlton, and then we cannot get the deal done due to it costing to much.
And then move onto the cheaper Hopper option.
Might end the 'destination club' talk
If Kelly nominates, the deal has to get done.....for the clubs sake.
Kelly would only nominate us if there was a pre agreement that we have the picks to get it done, don't think he'll nominate us blindly making both himself and us look silly...
 
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Gibbs may well have thought last year I need to move on for success.
Adelaide finished the season 1st, and are favorites in most markets to win the flag.

This should remain the case for the next 2-3 years.

We finished 3rd last, and have at least another whole year of 'resetting' or rebuilding the list to go, before we can even talk about going up the ladder, and even then will be left with a side with all the talent concentrated at the 18-24 year old mark over the next 2-3 years.

Success might come for us, but in the immediate future (Gibbs career) they're much better placed.
 

RobR

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I feel our list management team have gone beyond year to year planning and are looking 2-3 years ahead. We have a number of boys under 20 who are quite talented so at this trade period, young talent may not be a priority. IF we were able to snare one of, or both Kelly and Hopper now, it may not be the greatest of timing but they are available now and will grow and learn our game plan by the time our younger group are starting to peak.
In 2 years we start stacking up on youngsters again and hopefully the odd free agent.
If i was up on the Mighty Murray with a line in and a big fish wanted to jump on my hook, but i wasn't ready yet because i had just opened my first stubbie i'd have to reel it in.
 
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