Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

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Blue and Blue

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 29, 2018
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No club will give us two top 10 picks for pick 1 in this draft. Unless "Walsh" is that clear cut expected to be great then we'd be foolish to do it. If he's as "vanilla" as said then no club would be giving us the offer with the talent in the top 10 enabling them to get 2 top end talents.
Well said. Its laughable really the whole theory that has developed.Walsh isnt actually that good but other teams will give up their picks to get ours to get Walsh. At times logic seems to completely vanish in this place.
 
Well said. Its laughable really the whole theory that has developed.Walsh isnt actually that good but other teams will give up their picks to get ours to get Walsh. At times logic seems to completely vanish in this place.
Logically, logic can only vanish if it existed in the first place.
 
Jul 14, 2005
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I'm sure SOS would love to have the luxury of being creative with Pick 1, but he knows he has to pick the player he & the recruiting team rates as currently being the best, with the accent on 'currently'.

Why does that matter? You’re not drafting for the best player in 2019, you’re drafting the best player over their careers. Walsh has had a marginally better year than Smith, but that’s hardly a long-term indicator.

Was Bont the best player (based on output) in his draft year? No, but the Bulldogs list management team made the assessment he’d develop into an elite player. Having some foresight and backing your instincts are far more important.

Again - Walsh is currently the best player when compared to 17 and 18 year olds at TAC Cup level. It’s a massive step up to AFL level, and there’s no perfect indication their underage domination will translate.
 

Weiterbot23

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Oct 7, 2008
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No club will give us two top 10 picks for pick 1 in this draft. Unless "Walsh" is that clear cut expected to be great then we'd be foolish to do it. If he's as "vanilla" as said then no club would be giving us the offer with the talent in the top 10 enabling them to get 2 top end talents.

Unless GC are factoring leadership and low flight risk into the equation more than anyone else
 
Aug 22, 2014
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I interpret this as you believing Walsh is the best mid based on exposed form to date, but other mids have more upside at the next level.

This sort of thing is hypothetical/immeasurable at this stage. Struggling teams with low draft picks e.g. 1, 2, 3, don't have the luxury of drafting players on upside, X factor etc. This is something recruiters from the better teams are able to do. Joel Selwood will always be a good example of this. Injury put a question mark over his durability meaning there was no way he was being selected by those with the first few picks in the draft, yet many would have backed him to be a star if his body held up (as it has). Geelong having had some very good drafts in the late '90s & early '00s & having played finals in 2004 & 2005, were in a position to take a bit of a punt with pick 7 knowing that even if Selwood's body didn't cope with AFL footy, they still had the foundations of a very good team & one wasted pick would not hurt the club too much.

I'm sure SOS would love to have the luxury of being creative with Pick 1, but he knows he has to pick the player he & the recruiting team rates as currently being the best, with the accent on 'currently'.

Surely we're in the same sort of position now.

Elite: Cripps, Docherty
Evergreen: Simpson
Very good: Murphy, Kreuzer, McGovern
Solid: Curnow, Plowman, Newman, Lobbe, Lang
Project well: Curnow, Dow, Fisher, SPS, McKay, O'Brien, Williamson, TDK
Pending fitness: Setterfield, Kennedy, Pickett, Garlett
Jury out: Silvagni, Polson, Kerr, Cuningham, Macreadie, Schumacher, Lebois, Owies

That's the foundation of a very good team. If missing one high end draft pick is going to break us after 3 huge off-season efforts, then this is all wasted anyway. Happy to take a calculated risk if the payoff is there. Key word - calculated.
 
Sep 2, 2017
1,393
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No club will give us two top 10 picks for pick 1 in this draft. Unless "Walsh" is that clear cut expected to be great then we'd be foolish to do it. If he's as "vanilla" as said then no club would be giving us the offer with the talent in the top 10 enabling them to get 2 top end talents.

Basically if any club is offering us two top ten picks (that too picks 2/3 and 6) they must know something we don’t about how great Walsh is in which case you want Walsh




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Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2015
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Surely we're in the same sort of position now.

Elite: Cripps, Docherty
Evergreen: Simpson
Very good: Murphy, Kreuzer, McGovern
Solid: Curnow, Plowman, Newman, Lobbe, Lang
Project well: Curnow, Dow, Fisher, SPS, McKay, O'Brien, Williamson, TDK
Pending fitness: Setterfield, Kennedy, Pickett, Garlett
Jury out: Silvagni, Polson, Kerr, Cuningham, Macreadie, Schumacher, Lebois, Owies

That's the foundation of a very good team. If missing one high end draft pick is going to break us after 3 huge off-season efforts, then this is all wasted anyway. Happy to take a calculated risk if the payoff is there. Key word - calculated.

2020

Elite: Cripps Dow SPS Docherty Weitering Charlie Setterfield
Very Damn Good: McKay Fisher Kennedy LOB Marchbank Williamson McGovern Plowman

Could be anything: Pickett Garlett Cuningham TDK Walsh
 
Aug 22, 2014
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2020

Elite: Cripps Dow SPS Docherty Weitering Charlie Setterfield
Very Damn Good: McKay Fisher Kennedy LOB Marchbank Williamson McGovern Plowman

Could be anything: Pickett Garlett Cuningham TDK Walsh

Exactly.

Why not take the risk this year? Trade down via GC. Rankine plus change. Change = improved depth, improved reserves performance, improved trade collateral for next year.

Walsh looks a gem. But I'd be open to offers.
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 17, 2015
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Exactly.

Why not take the risk this year? Trade down via GC. Rankine plus change. Change = improved depth, improved reserves performance, improved trade collateral for next year.

Walsh looks a gem. But I'd be open to offers.

I have no doubt we are open to offers but IMO it just won't happen. GCS won't trade 3 picks for Pick 1. They have a great hand and would be made to waste it. They could easily get Lukoisus Rankine & Smith at 2, 3 and 6. I wouldn't be trading any of that if I was them
 

HereComesJuddy

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2008
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Exactly.

Why not take the risk this year? Trade down via GC. Rankine plus change. Change = improved depth, improved reserves performance, improved trade collateral for next year.

Walsh looks a gem. But I'd be open to offers.
Rankine has all the hallmarks of leaving after year 1 and we aren't getting pick 3 back in return if he does. And as for change, overs isnt loose change. Its a top 10 pick.

Walsh is the best player in the draft. Will he be the best from the draft in 10 years time. No one knows. But he is a gun mid and everyone on this board has been screaming out for more mids all year. Now we have the best in the country for his age and people want to trade him away. If we took rankine and a late pick, for the next 12 months all we would hear is that we need more mids
 

bmaurizio

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2004
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Exactly.

Why not take the risk this year? Trade down via GC. Rankine plus change. Change = improved depth, improved reserves performance, improved trade collateral for next year.

Walsh looks a gem. But I'd be open to offers.

agree’ we said hope Silvagni keeps an open prospective up to the last instance before he decides to call the number.
 
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