Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

[chelseacarlton]

You're wrong with just about everything here, and you're clearly basing it off a 2018 season heavily impacted by injuries.

Pace, skills and pressure are all strengths and you've tried to paint them as weaknesses which just isn't accurate at all.

Yep,I’m a big fan of Darcy.
His first look at a ball in Navy was a stoppage left foot snap goal.
He seemed to struggle after a few games and looked to have limited movement the entire season.
He has the perfect body to be anything forward of centre and likes both sides of his body.
Another body/mind Russell project,I expect good things next year!

 

[Blue__Balls]

Because we won 2 games this year with a % of less than 60.

If we had 2 picks inside 8, then yes we could/maybe.
But if we have only 1 pick, we won't take Rankine (my gut instinct).

I still think our midfield needs work, hence I would take Walsh (with 1) or Smith & Caldwell (with 3 & 6).

I would skip Lukosius and Rankine and play it safe noting that Charlie Curnow and SPS have enough X-factor to make up for the safe picks listed above (in my opinion).

So you can't draft mercurial types til you make the top 8?

There's some clear reasons why last season went the way it did. 13-14 players injured most weeks is a pretty damning situation to find yourself in.

I wouldn't take Rankine at 1 - for what it's worth. But if there was an opportunity to trade down but keep a top 3 pick, I'd do it for sure. That scenario gets us an extra pick to use on a "safe" balanced midfielder.

 

[dlb99]

So you can't draft mercurial types til you make the top 8?

There's some clear reasons why last season went the way it did. 13-14 players injured most weeks is a pretty damning situation to find yourself in.

I wouldn't take Rankine at 1 - for what it's worth. But if there was an opportunity to trade down but keep a top 3 pick, I'd do it for sure. That scenario gets us an extra pick to use on a "safe" balanced midfielder.

Rankine may have maturity issues that preclude him from consideration; there are whispers about him.

I rank Bailey Smith higher for our needs; I would take him at 3 instead of Rankine. From memory Bailey Smith spent some training time at Princess Park? If so, SOS and crew would have a good idea about him.

From my perspective our biggest suckiness is in the middle, hence why I am keen on Walsh/Smith and Caldwell. The best teams have a fleet of A-grade mids and enough backup for them when they get injured. Heaven help us if Cripps has a season ending injury.

 

[HARKER]

There are two questions I'd like for recruiters to answer after the draft. (because they wouldn't answer it beforehand and most wouldn't after, but....)

Q1. Who did you see to be the best player in this draft?
Q2. Who would have you drafted, had have you had pick #1?

Bet the answers wouldn't always be the same player, from each recruiter.

 

[CFC18]

You're wrong with just about everything here, and you're clearly basing it off a 2018 season heavily impacted by injuries.

Pace, skills and pressure are all strengths and you've tried to paint them as weaknesses which just isn't accurate at all.

Those strengths would get him a starting role in any team. Having an ability is not a strength if it's not performed regularly.

What would people base an opinion on if not the year of football he played with us..

 

[dlb99]

There are two questions I'd like for recruiters to answer after the draft. (because they wouldn't answer it beforehand and most wouldn't after, but....)

Q1. Who did you see to be the best player in this draft?
Q2. Who would have you drafted, had have you had pick #1?

Bet the answers wouldn't always be the same player, from each recruiter.

I suspect quite often (>50%) it would be different players.

I believe Max King is the most prodigious talent of this draft, could be Josh Kennedy (WCE) mixed with Paul Salmon.

No way I am drafting him number 1 for Carlton due to: we need mids, we already have talls, Max has done an ACL, pick 1 KPPs often suck, and I like Walsh.

 

[TheRedPill]

We have one of the most predictable drafts ahead of us: Sam Walsh (barring a truly unprecedented offer from another club trying to trade up... for Sam Walsh.)

It has been mentioned in the draft thread but you should take all of the public sources for draft info (BF phantom drafters, YouTube highlights, etc) for what they are. They shouldn’t be taken as gospel.

I won’t even address his on-field ability, because he’s an absolute jet, and we can only address the misconceptions about his kicking/his athleticism/his ceiling/etc so many times.

But I would ask this, when you consider the different levels of insight you can glean publicly versus what the clubs know...

How many times do you think a BigFooty phantom drafter has sat across from Sam Walsh’s family and his coaches, and heard about how he’s worked his way up from nothing? How he’s happily played through injury countless times without ever complaining? How he’s always the first player to stand up for a teammate, all 68kg of him? How he already pushes himself harder than most AFL players and could step into any club and instantly be a leader?

I’m not saying other draftees don’t do these things, aren’t good leaders, don’t have positive character traits, or are no good on-field. I’m just trying to emphasise, and I said it here months ago, before the media anointed him the top pick, when we were still debating Lukosius etc etc - Walsh is THAT good, and many clubs would give an arm and a leg for the chance to draft him. And admittedly, one of them just might.

 

[jd2010]

If GC offered 3 and 6, I'd take it without a doubt.

I'd also consider trading 6 down to GWS for 9 and 19 - they're usually open to moving up the order, and might be keen on Ben King in particular.

3 - Rankine
9 - Jones
19 - Butters/Duursma/O'Halloran/Stocker/McHenry

I don't think GC will do it to begin with unfortunately. McHenry would be a great get. I'd be happy enough with Rankine and Bailey Smith. From all reports Rankie is electric & the most talented in the draft and the Smith-Walsh difference is minimal so we'd be still getting a very good mid in

 

[Kernafides]

You're wrong with just about everything here, and you're clearly basing it off a 2018 season heavily impacted by injuries.

Pace, skills and pressure are all strengths and you've tried to paint them as weaknesses which just isn't accurate at all.

Hope so J but I guess we will wait and see. You cross the line and take the field then I am free to make my assessment. Watched his work rate off the ball many times and it was pretty poor. Career wise averages about 14 touches a game and he is now 23....clock is ticking to turn it around.

Compare him to a Polsen. Will Cam make it..who knows but he is young, fast and no one could question his intensity. I suspect these qualities helped him to retain his spot despite barely touching the ball. As such I'll back him in. Can I say the same about an older, more experienced Lang?? Nope

 

[HARKER]

We have one of the most predictable drafts ahead of us: Sam Walsh (barring a truly unprecedented offer from another club trying to trade up... for Sam Walsh.)

It has been mentioned in the draft thread but you should take all of the public sources for draft info (BF phantom drafters, YouTube highlights, etc) for what they are. They shouldn’t be taken as gospel.

I won’t even address his on-field ability, because he’s an absolute jet, and we can only address the misconceptions about his kicking/his athleticism/his ceiling/etc so many times.

But I would ask this, when you consider the different levels of insight you can glean publicly versus what the clubs know...

How many times do you think a BigFooty phantom drafter has sat across from Sam Walsh’s family and his coaches, and heard about how he’s worked his way up from nothing? How he’s happily played through injury countless times without ever complaining? How he’s always the first player to stand up for a teammate, all 68kg of him? How he already pushes himself harder than most AFL players and could step into any club and instantly be a leader?

I’m not saying other draftees don’t do these things, aren’t good leaders, don’t have positive character traits, or are no good on-field. I’m just trying to emphasise, and I said it here months ago, before the media anointed him the top pick, when we were still debating Lukosius etc etc - Walsh is THAT good, and many clubs would give an arm and a leg for the chance to draft him. And admittedly, one of them just might.

If GC genuinely offered two of their top six selections, the CFC would have to consider it and maybe even lean towards it, but none of this first rounder and some pick in the 20's stuff, nor a 5 & 10, or three picks in the teens.

If....if.....the offer fronted up the CFC may have to side with taking a chance on Rankine + either Rozee or Max King. Some will say Smith, but I just can't get excited for him. Would like to know though that Rankine can seriously be considered for being able to go through the midfield at times.

I'm sure we won't get so excited about Russell that we stretch his ambition to one of being able to build tanks with ease.

 

[Jabba73]

We need both a Robbie Gray and an Eddie Betts type player. Happy to give up pick one to get them.

 

[HARKER]

We need both a Robbie Gray and an Eddie Betts type player. Happy to give up pick one to get them.

We need mids too, but if not for Walsh, I'd sooner make sure we get that senior player next year and ensure (?) Setterfield & Kennedy stay on the park all year, whilst Dow, Fisher and SPS hone their craft.

Robbie Gray & Eddie Betts..........mmmmmm.........just a little tempting there Jabba

 

[smashbox gill]

Agree Walsh unless GC offer the 2 first round picks

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Nick Maxwell was at the Furphy tent last weekend. Said Setterfield will be a gun. No doubt.

 

[viking12]

if GC agree to do 3 & 6 for Pick 1, who do we draft with pick 3 ?

rankine or smith ?

i say rankine as one of smith or rozee will be there at 6

 

[Jimmae]

Lang is just a nothing player....he is 23...not overly quick, not overly skillful, zero work ethic and no appetite for the contest.....an injury free preseason won't change that

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2013-07-16/draft-prospect-darcy-lang

 

[Blue__Balls]

We need both a Robbie Gray and an Eddie Betts type player. Happy to give up pick one to get them.

There's a thought - what kind of player would we be targeting next year?

An accumulating, balanced midfielder (ie. Kelly, Coniglio, Miller, Newnes, Bont, Hunter) or an x-factor, icing on the cake player (ie. Cockatoo, Martin, Rioli, Gresham, Dunkley)?

For balance, does Walsh + Gresham look better than Rankine + Newnes?
Walsh + Dunkley vs Rankine + Hunter?
Walsh + Martin vs Rankine + Miller?

I feel like drafting the x-factor and trading for the established mid puts us in a stronger position sooner, but drafting the mid and trading for the x factor is probably an easier task for the recruitment team.

 

[__Bobcat__]

we don't do oops on bigfooty............pretty sure..........

You do if you have your head in a chaff bag when your writing it...a horse is a horse

PIGS ARSE!!!

 

[CFC18]

If GC genuinely offered two of their top six selections, the CFC would have to consider it and maybe even lean towards it, but none of this first rounder and some pick in the 20's stuff, nor a 5 & 10, or three picks in the teens.

If....if.....the offer fronted up the CFC may have to side with taking a chance on Rankine + either Rozee or Max King. Some will say Smith, but I just can't get excited for him. Would like to know though that Rankine can seriously be considered for being able to go through the midfield at times.

I'm sure we won't get so excited about Russell that we stretch his ambition to one of being able to build tanks with ease.

The only scenario I see GCS doing the 2 for 1 trade, is if they retain pick #2 with the intention to trade that down with either Crows or preferably Port. They'll then get Walsh, and retain 3 first round picks.

I suspect we'd only trade down if we could get our second preference, which is likely one of the SA players, hence we'd want pick 2 rather than pick 3.

Or more succinctly, welcome Walsh.

 

[Jimmae]

We have one of the most predictable drafts ahead of us: Sam Walsh (barring a truly unprecedented offer from another club trying to trade up... for Sam Walsh.)

It has been mentioned in the draft thread but you should take all of the public sources for draft info (BF phantom drafters, YouTube highlights, etc) for what they are. They shouldn’t be taken as gospel.

I won’t even address his on-field ability, because he’s an absolute jet, and we can only address the misconceptions about his kicking/his athleticism/his ceiling/etc so many times.

But I would ask this, when you consider the different levels of insight you can glean publicly versus what the clubs know...

How many times do you think a BigFooty phantom drafter has sat across from Sam Walsh’s family and his coaches, and heard about how he’s worked his way up from nothing? How he’s happily played through injury countless times without ever complaining? How he’s always the first player to stand up for a teammate, all 68kg of him? How he already pushes himself harder than most AFL players and could step into any club and instantly be a leader?

I’m not saying other draftees don’t do these things, aren’t good leaders, don’t have positive character traits, or are no good on-field. I’m just trying to emphasise, and I said it here months ago, before the media anointed him the top pick, when we were still debating Lukosius etc etc - Walsh is THAT good, and many clubs would give an arm and a leg for the chance to draft him. And admittedly, one of them just might.

I don't care that much about the 'fairy tale' story, I care about how it informs of his character, and how that relates to other draftees.

Is there something wrong with Bailey Smith's story? Jack Lukosius? Jye Caldwell? Max King? They all face challenges trying to push their way into an elite competition, though obviously some more than others.

If the club has snubbed a straight swap of 1 for 3 & 6 in this draft, they have fundamentally failed at list management. I don't care where they believe the list is at in a development cycle, you do not pass up that kind of deal. Fortunately, I do not believe that to have been the case, but if we can get one bite of the top 3 and another bite in the top 7 with another decent pick coming back, we'd be out of gourds not to look at it.

FWIW, I've seen a fair bit of Walsh for a mug punter, and the consistency of his acceleration is an issue, as is his kicking. If there are professional scouts projecting that he will iron that out because he will reach some radical level of anaerobic fitness compared to his existing standards, they are fools. Things like that do not improve a fixed percentage across the board, and if people are drafting him with those kinds of projections, they are about to be very disappointed.

You pick Sam Walsh for his decision making, his ability under pressure, and a reasonable scope of him playing at a weight of around 78-80 kgs in 3 years. He will get marginally faster, marginally stronger, and that will clean up his kicking marginally. You're then hoping that he learns not to burn himself out trying to make every contest on the field, and that in doing so his repeat efforts and skill execution are a bit better. On top of that, you hope that he improves his running technique a little to edge a bit more out and make him less flat footed against elite players.

If that all comes together, you might get a mix of Selwood and Scully, but likely without the elite abilities of either. But that package is still not better than one of Lukosius and Rankine, alongside someone like Smith or Rozee.

 

[Dropagrogan]

I do not post very often, but pick 2 &6 i would do , nothing else!
Sorry, 3 & 6 at a maximum! ( if we have a deal in place with GC )

 

[Red Bull]

if GC agree to do 3 & 6 for Pick 1, who do we draft with pick 3 ?

rankine or smith ?

i say rankine as one of smith or rozee will be there at 6

If the offer of 3&6 for 1 comes :
3:Rankine
6:Caldwell
Not interested in any other offer.
As it stands : Welcome Sam Walsh !!

 

[Mr_Plow]

I don't care that much about the 'fairy tale' story, I care about how it informs of his character, and how that relates to other draftees.

Is there something wrong with Bailey Smith's story? Jack Lukosius? Jye Caldwell? Max King? They all face challenges trying to push their way into an elite competition, though obviously some more than others.

If the club has snubbed a straight swap of 1 for 3 & 6 in this draft, they have fundamentally failed at list management. I don't care where they believe the list is at in a development cycle, you do not pass up that kind of deal. Fortunately, I do not believe that to have been the case, but if we can get one bite of the top 3 and another bite in the top 7 with another decent pick coming back, we'd be out of gourds not to look at it.

FWIW, I've seen a fair bit of Smith for a mug punter, and the consistency of his acceleration is an issue, as is his kicking. If there are professional scouts projecting that he will iron that out because he will reach some radical level of anaerobic fitness compared to his existing standards, they are fools. Things like that do not improve a fixed percentage across the board, and if people are drafting him with those kinds of projections, they are about to be very disappointed.

You pick Sam Walsh for his decision making, his ability under pressure, and a reasonable scope of him playing at a weight of around 78-80 kgs in 3 years. He will get marginally faster, marginally stronger, and that will clean up his kicking marginally. You're then hoping that he learns not to burn himself out trying to make every contest on the field, and that in doing so his repeat efforts and skill execution are a bit better. On top of that, you hope that he improves his running technique a little to edge a bit more out and make him less flat footed against elite players.

If that all comes together, you might get a mix of Selwood and Scully, but likely without the elite abilities of either. But that package is still not better than one of Lukosius and Rankine, alongside someone like Smith or Rozee.

I agree with most of your concerns re Smith and Walsh. I'm probably slightly more iffy on Smith's intelligence and niftiness in traffic, he needs to work on that aspect of his game as much as Walsh needs to work on developing his body overall. The differential in class, I believe, is significant and in favour of Walsh. It seems like we are approaching a nice median now, though.

I'd definitely take a package of Rankine + top 6 pick.

 

[Jimmae]

I agree with most of your concerns re Smith and Walsh. I'm probably slightly more iffy on Smith's intelligence and niftiness in traffic, he needs to work on that aspect of his game as much as Walsh needs to work on developing his body overall. The differential in class, I believe, is significant and in favour of Walsh. It seems like we are approaching a nice median now, though.

I'd definitely take a package of Rankine + top 6 pick.

I was actually talking about Walsh the whole time there, Smith's name was mentioned in the player profiling by mistake.

 

[LanceRomance]

Yep,I’m a big fan of Darcy.
His first look at a ball in Navy was a stoppage left foot snap goal.
He seemed to struggle after a few games and looked to have limited movement the entire season.
He has the perfect body to be anything forward of centre and likes both sides of his body.
Another body/mind Russell project,I expect good things next year!

Did he miss half of the preseason too?