Bluemour Discussion Thread XVI - Facts Not Welcome

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JustaBattler

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Why did Shiel wait so long to 'choose' Essendon? Why was it such a difficult decision?
I won't state as fact that his manager felt that a deal would have been difficult with us, but it sure seemed that way to me.

There's little point sometimes nominating a club if one feels that a deal may not be able to be achieved.
Essendon promised Shiel they'd get him over the line and they did........albeit at a much higher cost than they expected to pay. No problem.
Could be wrong - but wasn't it the case according to our insiders that GWS preference was to deal with us? Isn't also true that Shiel knocked back more money from Carlton (and St Kilda) to go to his future father in laws choice?

Shiel for 2020 1st and whatever ...was the offer..along with big money...more money than EssenDONE was putting up on the table- dunno about under the table...

Walsh (pick#1) was never on the table...was he? I'm so glad I was wrong and that Walsh has shown he is a first year that can play AFL standard midfield - kid is crushing it haven't seen anyone like him - except for maybe Stephenson in previous year - who was knocked back because of some heart complaint- well done Collingwood - we went for Dow.

Well done SOS on Walsh - looks like an easy no brainer now- after the fact.

What was interesting was that Shiel (apparently) was having a change of mind - right up to almost the death...I think he maybe should have followed his bones instead of listening to the EssenDONE 'leadership group' over a cup of coffee. or his GF dad ..but I guess he is enjoying becoming a future property development guru ..- good luck with that son :moustache:
 

Wickzki

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If you read my previous post, you'll see I wrote "it's increasingly looking like Willo will be a bust" ... And I'm not giving 'big wraps' to SOS until he isn't

What I mean by bust: Injuries, form, age - whatever the reason - it's elite sport. If a player does not contribute something meaningful to the success of his/her Club, then, regardless of the reason, their top flight career has been a bust ...
I think for a player to be a bust they have to be compared to the players that were drafted following them. If there were multiple substantially better players available to be drafted then yes, you can make an argument that a player has been a bust.

Now, we understand that the only reason Willo hasn't been selected to play more games has been because of injury.

There were 17 players drafted after Willo. Of these:
  • 1 of these was an academy selection (Brad Scheer, Gold Coast - 10 games; dropped from the main list and rookied)
  • 1 of these was a father-son selection (Jake Waterman - 21 games)
So 2 of these players were unavailable to us.

  • Pick 62 -- Matthew Signorello -- delisted. Playing in VFL. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 63 -- Dylan Clarke -- Essendon. 2 games.
  • Pick 64 -- Dion Johnston -- Melbourne -- delisted. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 65 -- Pat Kerr -- Carlton -- 4 games
  • Pick 66 -- Luke Ryan -- Fremantle -- 42 games -- great selection as a mature age player (was 20)
  • **Pick 67 -- Brad Scheer (see above)
  • Pick 68 -- Timm House -- Geelong -- delisted. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 69 -- Ryan Abbott -- Geelong -- mature age recruit (is 27 now) -- 5 AFL games
  • Pick 70 -- Fergus Greene -- Bulldogs -- 5 AFL games
  • Pick 71 -- Corey Lyons -- Brisbane -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
  • Pick 72 -- Ryan Garthwaite -- Richmond -- 8 AFL games
  • Pick 73 -- Nick Larkey -- North Melbourne -- 7 AFL games
  • Pick 74 -- Harry Morrison -- Hawthorn -- 30 AFL games
  • Pick 75 -- Ben Davis -- Adelaide -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
  • Pick 76 -- Mitchell Lewis -- Hawthorn -- 8 AFL games
  • Pick 77** -- Jake Waterman (see above)
So from those players who were drafted AFTER Willo and who were available to Carlton:

  • Two of them have played more games than Williamson. Luke Ryan (who was a mature age draftee) and Harry Morrison (who tore his ACL as a bottom ager in the TAC Cup and who benefited from Andrew Russell early in his AFL career).

If we want to go deeper and look at the rookie draft:

  • Rowan Marshall -- St. Kilda -- 22 AFL games (mature age recruit)
  • Cameron Zuurhaar -- North -- 18 AFL games
  • Jack Henry -- Geelong -- 33 AFL games
  • Ben Ronke -- Sydney -- 23 AFL games (has been found out; hasn't been selected since round 6)
  • Shaun McKernan -- Essendon -- 24 AFL games since 2016 rookie drafting (mature age re-selection)
  • Zach Guthrie -- Geelong -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)
  • Oscar McInerney -- Brisbane -- 26 AFL games (mature age recruit)
  • James Cousins -- Hawthorn -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)

Out of the 50 additional picks in the rookie draft only 8 of them have managed equal amount of games or better to Willo to date. Of these 3 of them were mature age recruits.

Not many of those 11 total players (including Waterman, unavailable to us) would rate ahead of Williamson.

You can't possibly call Williamson a bust. We did as well as could possibly have been expected to with that selection. Hopefully he gets back on track.
 

jezzajay

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I think for a player to be a bust they have to be compared to the players that were drafted following them. If there were multiple substantially better players available to be drafted then yes, you can make an argument that a player has been a bust.

Now, we understand that the only reason Willo hasn't been selected to play more games has been because of injury.

There were 17 players drafted after Willo. Of these:
  • 1 of these was an academy selection (Brad Scheer, Gold Coast - 10 games; dropped from the main list and rookied)
  • 1 of these was a father-son selection (Jake Waterman - 21 games)
So 2 of these players were unavailable to us.

  • Pick 62 -- Matthew Signorello -- delisted. Playing in VFL. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 63 -- Dylan Clarke -- Essendon. 2 games.
  • Pick 64 -- Dion Johnston -- Melbourne -- delisted. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 65 -- Pat Kerr -- Carlton -- 4 games
  • Pick 66 -- Luke Ryan -- Fremantle -- 42 games -- great selection as a mature age player (was 20)
  • **Pick 67 -- Brad Scheer (see above)
  • Pick 68 -- Timm House -- Geelong -- delisted. 0 AFL games
  • Pick 69 -- Ryan Abbott -- Geelong -- mature age recruit (is 27 now) -- 5 AFL games
  • Pick 70 -- Fergus Greene -- Bulldogs -- 5 AFL games
  • Pick 71 -- Corey Lyons -- Brisbane -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
  • Pick 72 -- Ryan Garthwaite -- Richmond -- 8 AFL games
  • Pick 73 -- Nick Larkey -- North Melbourne -- 7 AFL games
  • Pick 74 -- Harry Morrison -- Hawthorn -- 30 AFL games
  • Pick 75 -- Ben Davis -- Adelaide -- 0 AFL games (still listed despite no games yet)
  • Pick 76 -- Mitchell Lewis -- Hawthorn -- 8 AFL games
  • Pick 77** -- Jake Waterman (see above)
So from those players who were drafted AFTER Willo and who were available to Carlton:

  • Two of them have played more games than Williamson. Luke Ryan (who was a mature age draftee) and Harry Morrison (who tore his ACL as a bottom ager in the TAC Cup and who benefited from Andrew Russell early in his AFL career).

If we want to go deeper and look at the rookie draft:

  • Rowan Marshall -- St. Kilda -- 22 AFL games (mature age recruit)
  • Cameron Zuurhaar -- North -- 18 AFL games
  • Jack Henry -- Geelong -- 33 AFL games
  • Ben Ronke -- Sydney -- 23 AFL games (has been found out; hasn't been selected since round 6)
  • Shaun McKernan -- Essendon -- 24 AFL games since 2016 rookie drafting (mature age re-selection)
  • Zach Guthrie -- Geelong -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)
  • Oscar McInerney -- Brisbane -- 26 AFL games (mature age recruit)
  • James Cousins -- Hawthorn -- 17 AFL games (tied with Willo)

Out of the 50 additional picks in the rookie draft only 8 of them have managed equal amount of games or better to Willo to date. Of these 3 of them were mature age recruits.

Not many of those 11 total players (including Waterman, unavailable to us) would rate ahead of Williamson.

You can't possibly call Williamson a bust. We did as well as could possibly have been expected to with that selection. Hopefully he gets back on track.
Nice.
 
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We only have to go back as far as last year.

SOS was able to trade in Gov, Setters, Newman, and Fas (via FA) without having to trade a player, and still retaining our 1st round pick....which we picked up Walshy.

He then trades in another first round pick during the National Draft for Stocker, when our next pick was somewhere in the 60's or 70's, and still managed to maintain a first round pick for the 2019 draft...which now gives us currency to trade in a quality player....or still give us a first round pick in the ND. And, if we happened to bring in say Jack Martin or Jack Billings for that trade, all of a sudden it looks pretty ****in' good.

I know a lot of people argue that we may have paid overs for Gov, but we only gave the Cows back what they gave us for Gibbs, with some interest. Whom, as some posters suggest, may be coming back to us anyway...a hell of a lot cheaper than what we got for him. They may get their third rounder back that they traded to us.

And then brings in a guy named Michael Gibbons, who hasn't missed a game, and looking better and better every week.

For mine, I was pretty rapt with what SOS did during the trade/draft period last year...maybe with the exception of our lower draft picks.
When you look at it like that reality is he smashed it. We were all aroused during trade period and what he achieved, We just harp on the fact that we didn't get any superstars, or couldn't lure an elite mature player. We are not Norf but in reality we haven't performed anywhere near to their level for many years.

They have thrown everything at everyone for no result, We are a sleeping giant and one of the big four, but not at the moment and with that heavy weight on his shoulders I think he has done a good job to date.
 
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Won’t happen. Family won’t let it happen.
He could still live in Adelaide and fly in once a week to train and before match days............Andy McKay did it for a year when he was at uni in Brisbane doing his vet study. Just saying that if he wanted to come back and also wanted to keep living over there it could be done...........o_O
 

Kruzering

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Not really a good example.

GWS were given unprecendant draft concessions, extra cap room and extra list spots. During his time there he picked Orourke with pick 2 and Plowman pick 3.
Keep in mind GWS still are yet to make a grand final, despite the massive leg up SOS received.

Picking Lobb and Williams with late pick is more of an example i think we should be looking at.
GWS has the advantage of coming in after GC, but not so much advantage that the difference in their results should be this vast.

SOS did a great job there.

Bruce was also a late pick that he nailed

Picking Plowman at 3 is what they would have needed, you can't just pick highly rated mids.

Other trades Tyson and Salem for Kelly

Jaksch and 19 for 7

Not winning a premiership or making a granny is more a coaches issue, you can't say they haven't had the cattle.
 

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Kruzering

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Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield!!!

Has to be the one we go the hardest at as a RFA. Would be perfect timing from a challenging standpoint aswell. If SOS has done his job cap wise we should be able to make it unmatchable for GWS.
This

If GWS win a flag I reckon he'll be looking for forever money 1.1m x 6 years
 

HBF

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Harks is on the money.

At one point earlier in the trade period we were very close to getting Shiel but couldn’t close the deal with GWS, as initially they wanted our 2018 draft pick (Sam Walsh) but we weren’t prepared to give that.

Then after that is how you’ve described in your post. But we were only ready to deal with GWS with our 2019 first round draft pick, not pick 1 from 2018. Essendon finally blinked with two firsts.


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And have a look where Essendon are now. Going nowhere and don't have a first round selection this year.
 

Gethelred

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One can assess those players though and not simply throw a blanket called 'writing off' across the whole.

Every player has pros and cons and that's what should be discussed. Don't sell up and don't sell down. Simply relate what one sees.
... except there were more than a few posts and posters looking to trade out 'busts' Weitering, SPS and Harry for whatever could be obtained.

Don't alter history. It isn't histrionics if it's true.
 

Coops93

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FMD . They are there to play AFL football - not marry your daughter. All this overemphasis on personality and " off field issues" is laughable. they can either play or they cant. if they have some mongrel in them and that allows them to get the best out of themselves - so be it.
One of our best players of all time- Doull....How good was his personality?
I agree with this. If my daughter came home with Dane Swan I'd probably **** the bed.

I'd bloody love him in my footy team, though!
 

Coops93

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Willo is not a bust. A bust is someone taken in the top, say, 20-25 not being any good. If any pick after that comes good its a bonus, if not it's not a premium pick so not to worry too much. Anything 50+ is a free swing. If they never play a game then no one will ever care, or even notice.
 
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