Bluemour Discussion Thread XVI - Facts Not Welcome

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Gavstar

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Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.

SOS is under so much scrutiny from supporters and internally. Nail in coffin he will walk.
I'm not sure you get the trade it was all about getting Stocker this year not who is pick 1 next year.

If Stocker + our pick swap play more games in total than who adelaide gets as its pick. haven't we won the trade.

Come back to me in 10-15 years time and there will be an answer.

Who did you think predicted we'd finish up the ladder this year? Whose the optimst amongst the two Bolton or SOS?

SOS is under scrutiny from ignoramuses who know less than Jon Snow.

Look at his swap in 2015 for pick 28 that netted us 4 GWS players (two of which are still on the list) and 150+ games for the Blues, pick 28 that year played 6 friggin games.

What were the alternatives to what SOS has done? Who were the mature age players on our list worth keeping? Boekhurst, Jaksch, Tutt, Whiley, Everitt, Menzel, Watson?

Gibbs, Henderson and Tuohy yes but all wanted out.

Holman maybe?

Who wanted to come to Carlton? Not Treloar, Not Shiel, Not Rocky, not Devon Smith instead we've had to get compromise choices such as Kerridge or those with huge upside but dealing with serious injuries like Setterfield and Pickett

While in hindsight everyone is Nostramdus, SOS has been doing the best he can with the cards he was dealt at the time and with the continual woeful performances making the club totally unattractive to good free agents.
 

Blue__Balls

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They do but they also drop so many games they shouldnt they should finish 5th or 6th though
And if they finish 5th or 6th, all it takes is a loss in the first finals week and it's Pick 11 or 12 for Carlton.

Hard to see them progressing to a prelim. Assuming the ladder stays roughly as it is, they'd have to win a home final against a Brisbane/Richmond/Port and then an away final against a GWS or WC.

Pick 11-14 is the likely range. And if we can scrap our way to 17th or 16th on the ladder the deal looks a bit better.

Pick 3 for Pick 13 + Stocker?
 

zeggie

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Don't understand what you don't get. There is a big difference between the pick swaps - Pick 1!
It was a gamble and its backfired completely.
How can you call it a backfire when the second part of the "gamble" is unknown? We don't know what draft pick we'll get, we don't know what player that will get us and we don't know how those 2 players (or more) will fare in a season or 2.
 

Canyouhearthedrums

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Adelaide finishing top 2? More chance of Jonesy coming back into the side as a forward and kicking 4 a week to finish off the season... 👀👀
True but even 15/16 could change things considerably. Everyone is banging on about how us wanting to trade our first rounder so who cares what it is. Which might be our intention but there is a big difference between intention and execution. We won't be the only ones after established talent and could find ourselves outbid.
 

SammaGilberto

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How can you call it a backfire when the second part of the "gamble" is unknown? We don't know what draft pick we'll get, we don't know what player that will get us and we don't know how those 2 players (or more) will fare in a season or 2.
There were people floating the idea of trading Weiters/Asking if we picked the wrong player, some people just don't understand the future talent is unknown and you can't possibly assess it in it's infancy. Now had we of done that trade during the trade period and picked up some meh player in his late 20's than sure it's backfired but I have full faith in SOS... who's to say the player crows pick is in the ilks of Jack Watts, Josh Schache, Richard Tambling, Scott Gumbleton... Stocker could well and truly be better than whoever they pick after all... in 2013 Crippa went 13 and the rest is history ;)
 

Canyouhearthedrums

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For us to get out of the bottom 5, by winning 7 games total, you're banking on:

- One of Essendon, Hawthorn, NM and St Kilda to win 1 or fewer games
- Sydney and WB to win than 2 or fewer games,
- Melbourne and GC to win 3 or fewer games.

That first point is extremely unrealistic, all those sides will win at least 2 games out of the next 10. The others?

"Likely" (more like "reasonably possible") wins are bolded (I've based ours on what I assume you think we'll win).

Carlton: WB (H), Fre (A), Mel (H), Syd (A), GC (H), Ade (H), WC (H), Rich (A), StK (H), Gee (A)

Sydney: Haw (H), GC (H), Ess (A), Car (H), Fre (A), Gee (H), GWS (A), PA (A), Mel (A), StK (H)
WB: Col (H), PA (A), Gee (H), Mel (H), StK (A), Fre (H), Bris (A), Ess (A), GWS (A), Ade (H)
Melbourne: Fre (H), Bris (A), Car (A), WB (A), WC (H), StK (A), Rich (H), Col (H), Syd (H), NM (A)
GC: StK (H), Syd (A), Rich (H), Ade (H), Car (A), Ess (H), Col (A), Bris (A), Haw (A), GWS (H)

All of Essendon, Hawthorn, NM and St Kilda stay ahead.
Sydney stay ahead.
Only got one win pencilled in for WB, but they have a lot of 50/50 games and I reckon they win at least three total.
Melbourne similar, but decent chance we could jump them.
GC look to be running out of puff, doubt they win 4, so we possibly jump them too.

Best case scenario I see us getting to 15th, meaning Adelaide walk away with Pick 4.
Pretty good chance it's Pick 3.
Drop one of those 5 games you've got us winning and it's probably Pick 2.
Feeling confident we should avoid finishing last looking at GC's draw.
My nearest to the pin attempt is pick 2 for 15 (and Stocker obviously)
 

Blue__Balls

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How can you call it a backfire when the second part of the "gamble" is unknown? We don't know what draft pick we'll get, we don't know what player that will get us and we don't know how those 2 players (or more) will fare in a season or 2.
How?

Easy - ignore the specifics and just go off the emotion of trading what (at round 13) is Pick 1.

Lazy sensationalism, best reserved for Facebook comments.

A bit of analysis and you can see that:

A) It may not be Pick 1. Picks 2 or 3 are genuine possibilities.
B) We probably get a pick in the early teens back.
C) The decision was made on the basis that we would likely climb up the ladder...which isn't a judgement the recruiting team would make themselves.
D) The trade scenario was signed off by the board, knowing full well what the risks were.

If SOS leaves, which is certainly a possibility, I doubt it's because the Stocker trade gets graded as a fail on his part and he's pushed out the door. Plenty of other considerations.
 

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RobR

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How?

Easy - ignore the specifics and just go off the emotion of trading what (at round 13) is Pick 1.

Lazy sensationalism, best reserved for Facebook comments.

A bit of analysis and you can see that:

A) It may not be Pick 1. Picks 2 or 3 are genuine possibilities.
B) We probably get a pick in the early teens back.
C) The decision was made on the basis that we would likely climb up the ladder...which isn't a judgement the recruiting team would make themselves.
D) The trade scenario was signed off by the board, knowing full well what the risks were.

If SOS leaves, which is certainly a possibility, I doubt it's because the Stocker trade gets graded as a fail on his part and he's pushed out the door. Plenty of other considerations.
What if Stocker turns out as good as whoever they pick at 1 or 2 and then we still have a free hit? You can't call this trade a fail anytime soon.
 

Coops93

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View attachment 691374

Quick Ladder Predictor has us with Pick #4 and Adelaide with Pick #11. I'd do that trade for Liam Stocker at this rate. Also, that's giving Adelaide the game against us in Round 18 or so. That's a huge game for us at home. We need to beat them there.
You've been a bit optimistic re the crows. You really have them losing to the dogs in rd 23? Only winning 5 of the last 10 games is a bit harsh too.

I also had Carlton finishing at 15 fwiw. Call me optimistic but I see a few wins in the back half of the year.
 

CFC18

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True but even 15/16 could change things considerably. Everyone is banging on about how us wanting to trade our first rounder so who cares what it is. Which might be our intention but there is a big difference between intention and execution. We won't be the only ones after established talent and could find ourselves outbid.
Pick 12+ limits the calibre of player we can target, especially if they're contacted. Pick 1 would have meant we could target anyone and have the currency to get the trade over the line, whether contracted or not.
 

Soapy V

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would love another swing at a pick 13 just very quietly............
Yep. That's the point. How many of the Pick 1's have been the best players over the years?

Apart from Cripps what picks were Dangerfield Fyfe Martin Neale Selwood Kelly M.Crouch R.Gray Shuey Grundy Gawn etc etc?

Carlton supporters seem to be happy with Charlie McKay Cuningham Fisher and others.

The focus on Pick One is ridiculous and it's ONE player.

PS I would take Stocker & Martin in a heartbeat over pick 1. Not only do I rate them but we got Stocker in a year earlier (underrated fact) and Martin will be ready to step in and help straight away. Both fit perfectly our needs both in terms of talent and demographics. In 2020 we don't need another 18 year old.
 
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Mr_Plow

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Yep. That's the point. How many of the Pick 1's have been the best players over the years?

Apart from Cripps what picks were Dangerfield Fyfe Martin Neale Selwood Kelly M.Crouch R.Gray Shuey Grundy Gawn etc etc?

The focus on Pick One is ridiculous and it's ONE player.
Indeed, very rarely is there a clear number one who is so vastly ahead of his peers and essentially guaranteed to have a hall of fame career.

The only examples I can think of are Nick Riewoldt and Sam Walsh.

They come around once every 15-20 years.

We got lucky.
 

RobR

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Pick 12+ limits the calibre of player we can target, especially if they're contacted. Pick 1 would have meant we could target anyone and have the currency to get the trade over the line, whether contracted or not.
They wouldn't trade pick 1 IMO and they probably knew who they were going to target when they done the pick swap. Always got next years first if we are after a very good player, i'm confident our list management team have all bases covered. It aint over till it's over.
 

Blue__Balls

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Pick 12+ limits the calibre of player we can target, especially if they're contacted. Pick 1 would have meant we could target anyone and have the currency to get the trade over the line, whether contracted or not.
Knowingly trading pick 1 this year would also attract a lot of scrutiny in and of itself. Need to convince a player to come, so if we can't find someone "worthy" of trading pick 1 for, then to an extent we're stuck with it unless we want to downgrade it.....which is what we did.

Just having Pick 1 doesn't mean you can trade for Josh Kelly.
 

The Flying Doormat

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I did neither of those.
Sorry, I assumed #19 was referring to 2019, as Adelaide's pick last year was #16, having slipped to 19 due to academy/father son. That said, from what I've seen of Stocker, he's at least as good as many of those selected earlier. Things may change, but bottom line, I don't think it's as bad for SOS as some make out to be. And, he wouldn't acted without consulting others in the football Dept.
 
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