Yarran is worth around pick 10-14. Basically he's valuable to any side that is in the 8, not too many players away from a genuine shot and to any side that he could fill a big hole in.
Clubs will be aware that he's not hard at it, not overly mentally tough and not a leader what so ever. They will also be aware that in a good side he is a genuine weapon and can cut teams to pieces and win them games. Meters gained, can find the footy, uses it well and can play at both ends and when motivated does the defensive things well, when motivated. He's no good in a poor side but valuable in a good one. With a heap of footy left in front of him, to a top side he could be a real match winner.
Richmond have their holes, they could do with a good inside midfielder, a big body in there who can really play and feed their runners and take a tag. Key position players, yes perhaps but perhaps not a massive priority.
If Richmond reckon they can plug any of their more important holes with their first pick they should go out and do so but, if they believe they are a shot at the top 4 and that Yarran can add to their team enough to give them a real crack at top 4 they should seriously consider trading it for him. I have doubts that their first round pick will net them the player that will fill a major weak spot in their side unless they trade it. If Richmond genuinely believe Yarran fills a hole in their side and that they are a genuine threat they should be more inclined to spend their round one pick than take it to the draft unless Richmond believe they aren't good enough and should be focusing on rebuilding, in that case they risk floundering around the middle, unless they get lucky and something comes through quickly.
Which is it Richmond? Are you coming or going? I think Yarran fills a big hole for many aspiring teams and those, particularly ones who may not be up there all that long like North. I get the feeling that if Richmond don't satisfy our needs that come the trade period they will get trumped. Yarran is a good fit for North, Sydney and perhaps Hawthorn and Adelaide. Clubs which could quite easily outbid Richmond if they are willing to part with a first rounder.
Remember, this is not a fringe player on the move and is not a player with behavioral issues on the move (that we know of). This is a good player who wants to leave a lowly club, there will be competition and teams will pay his value if they really want him. I really don't think we will know until the trade period starts.