Bluemour Melting Pot XXII

[OldBlueFan]

Does it worry anyone else that the guys who are in the high priced free agency wars seem to have pretty crap years after their mega-deal is done? Coniglio and Grundy haven't exactly set the world alight this year. Kelly hasn't seemed to become the next amazing midfielder that everyone thought he would be. Daisy was almost a complete bust for us, except for his last couple of years (when he was no longer on mega bucks). I guess Lynch comes close, but even he hasn't been stellar; at the moment he's behind all of Hawkins, Kennedy, Taberner and Dixon for this year's coleman. Gaff too has been pretty good at the Weagles, but again, not amazing; his stats are only marginally better than Sam Walsh's.

I'm trying to think of anyone who has gone on to truly justify the price tags that were being bandied about to encourage them to move.

 

[mochacinolatte]

It's data that supports my argument.

Statements like Papley is better than Prestia have no validity unless someone provides some form of information to back it up.

So AFL Data Rating rates Prestia rank no.14 at the moment.

So are you suggesting Prestia is better than these followings players.

1. Dunkley.
2. Petrecca.
3. Merret.
4. Yeo.
5. Parker.
6. Boak.
7. Hawkins.
8. Jack Steele.
9. McCluggage.
10. Lachie Hunter.
11. Mitch Duncan.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Does it worry anyone else that the guys who are in the high priced free agency wars seem to have pretty crap years after their mega-deal is done? Coniglio and Grundy haven't exactly set the world alight this year. Kelly hasn't seemed to become the next amazing midfielder that everyone thought he would be. Daisy was almost a complete bust for us, except for his last couple of years (when he was no longer on mega bucks). I guess Lynch comes close, but even he hasn't been stellar; at the moment he's behind all of Hawkins, Kennedy, Taberner and Dixon for this year's coleman. Gaff too has been pretty good at the Weagles, but again, not amazing; his stats are only marginally better than Sam Walsh's.

I'm trying to think of anyone who has gone on to truly justify the price tags that were being bandied about to encourage them to move.

It's because they become complacent.

They're not necessarily doing it intentionally, but when you know your future is secured and you've finally received the big contract, a player might subconsciously drop off 5% in their preparation and match intensity. This can have a massive impact on performance.

The unknown is what drives people to greater heights.

 

[katmanblue]

Perce - and that was my grandfather's name - have a look at the various 2nd's threads, and take a look at the footage for the scratch matches we've played to this point. I'm not going the attack here; I'm genuinely hoping you take a look and a breath.

Polson has taken to the new coaching and development team like a fish to water. He's got body mass and game awareness; he's hitting 50+ metre passes after running 30m. He's coming along very, very nicely. If he doesn't debut in this new role this season, I'll be fine, but I quite thoroughly expect him to get a berth next year as a running/lockdown defender. He's getting to the point where he's smashing it in the reserves, and the only thing keeping him from the firsts is a bloke by the name of Simpson.

Poty

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[Eiffel 65]

So AFL Data Rating rates Prestia rank no.14 at the moment.

So are you suggesting Prestia is better than these followings players.

1. Dunkley.
2. Petrecca.
3. Merret.
4. Yeo.
5. Parker.
6. Boak.
7. Hawkins.
8. Jack Steele.
9. McCluggage.
10. Lachie Hunter.
11. Mitch Duncan.

The player ratings are quite complex and analyse player performance beyond just the number of disposals.

The summation of all categories (looks like there's more than 50) would suggest that he is having a better season than the players you've listed.

At the end of the day, it can be quite subjective when comparing a midfielder to a small forward.

What isn't subjective is the quality of Papley's disposal. The numbers show this and he needs to improve this area of his game.

 

[mochacinolatte]

The player ratings are quite complex and analyse player performance beyond just the number of disposals.

The summation of all categories (looks like there's more than 50) would suggest that he is having a better season than the players you've listed.

At the end of the day, it can be quite subjective when comparing a midfielder to a small forward.

What isn't subjective is the quality of Papley's disposal. The numbers show this and he needs to improve this area of his game.

Well, you didn't answer the question. Is Prestia better than the players I listed above?

I am not here to argue what Papley is worth. My whole consensus for this trade period is that we need a Small FWD, Mid and maybe a HBF. I have no idea where people are getting his trade value at, and I simply don't care.

My point is, using the evidence you have provided, does not paint an accurate picture of the player. Given that I was able to list several players who are having a better season than Prestia, how can he be rated so highly when he has only played 5 games this year?

Furthermore.

When Richmond traded Prestia at the end of 2016 the AFL rating show he was rated 295.6. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I290627/Prestia-Dion

However when you look at Papley's at the moment it is currently 373.7. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I996765/Papley-Tom.

So by your evidence provided, I can claim that 2020 Papley was better than Dion Prestia 2016. Therefore I can say, Papley is worth more than was the Tiger's gave for Prestia.

To clarify, I am not saying Papley is worth that, I am saying I can skewed these ratings to fit my argument like what you did with yours.

 

[katmanblue]

If Kade or Murph plays in our next Grand Final, I will be very surprised.

Unless...

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[Stamos]

Seriously? $1M - 20% = $800K.

You keep talking about Martins average over the contract. It does not matter. It goes by what what the player was due to get in 2020.

What they get paid in 2021, 2022, 2023 etc is irrelevant. Why are you complicating it?

The agreement was 50% reduction for months 6 and 7 (AFL financial year 2020). Then 50-70% for months 8-12.

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It's not complicating it, the contracts are already complicated.

Martin's contract is not $1 million a year, it's $620k. That's a big ******* difference. What players get paid across their whole contract is extremely relevant.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Well, you didn't answer the question. Is Prestia better than the players I listed above?

I am not here to argue what Papley is worth. My whole consensus for this trade period is that we need a Small FWD, Mid and maybe a HBF. I have no idea where people are getting his trade value at, and I simply don't care.

My point is, using the evidence you have provided, does not paint an accurate picture of the player. Given that I was able to list several players who are having a better season than Prestia, how can he be rated so highly when he has only played 5 games this year?

Furthermore.

When Richmond traded Prestia at the end of 2016 the AFL rating show he was rated 295.6. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I290627/Prestia-Dion

However when you look at Papley's at the moment it is currently 373.7. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I996765/Papley-Tom.

So by your evidence provided, I can claim that 2020 Papley was better than Dion Prestia 2016. Therefore I can say, Papley is worth more than was the Tiger's gave for Prestia.

To clarify, I am not saying Papley is worth that, I am saying I can skewed these ratings to fit my argument like what you did with yours.

I did answer it.^^^^^^^^^

When you factor in every statistic such as pressure acts, disposal efficiency, inside 50's, rebound 50's, score involvements etc. the data shows Prestia is having a better season than the players you've mentioned above.

That doesn't mean that he's the most eye catching. Just means that statistically speaking he's having a better season when all his said and done (based on the combined sum of all metrics).

Just keep in mind that Prestia was interrupted with injuries in 2015 and 2016. He only managed 22 out of a possible 44 games (50% of matches). This would have brought his player rating down quite significantly in 2016. It was clearly a point in time where he was struggling to gain continuity.

 

[Stamos]

So you think there would be a better prospect in the draft with an early 2nd pick rather than a mid to late ish 1st?

I think you're a better chance to get better players with 2 2nds (one of them early) than you are with mid-late first and a pick at the end of the draft.

And the AFL values picks that way too.
The Premier's 2nd rounder (36) is worth the value an upgrade from 15 to 7.

 

[GoBlues!]

I'm trying to think of anyone who has gone on to truly justify the price tags that were being bandied about to encourage them to move.

Not sure about his price tag, but I reckon Lachie Neale has been a great recruit for the Lions.

 

[Arr0w]

I think you're a better chance to get better players with 2 2nds (one of them early) than you are with mid-late first and a pick at the end of the draft.

And the AFL values picks that way too.
The Premier's 2nd rounder (36) is worth the value an upgrade from 15 to 7.

Go back to my question

Do you honestly believe there is a better chance of selecting a better player with an early 2nd than a mid to late ish 1st?

 

[Stamos]

Go back to my question

Do you honestly believe there is a better chance of selecting a better player with an early 2nd than a mid to late ish 1st?

Of course a mid-late first is worth more than an early 2nd. You're ignoring the value of the other 2nd round pick though.

 

[katmanblue]

It's not complicating it, the contracts are already complicated.

Martin's contract is not $1 million a year, it's $620k. That's a big ******* difference. What players get paid across their whole contract is extremely relevant.

It's $1M THIS year.

It's a 50% reduction for what they were getting in each specific month (7 of them). NOT an average.

I can't explain it any more simply. If you don't get it, I can't help. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it in a way that's easier to understand.

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[Arr0w]

Of course a mid-late first is worth more than an early 2nd. You're ignoring the value of the other 2nd round pick though.

Not ignoring it at all

You get an extra pick, a 2nd, but you lose a first

Remember C Curnow, 2 x 2nds for a 1st?

I will concede in some years it is better to have 2 2nds, than just 1 midish 1sts

 

[mochacinolatte]

I did answer it.^^^^^^^^^

When you factor in every statistic such as pressure acts, disposal efficiency, inside 50's, rebound 50's, score involvements etc. the data shows Prestia is having a better season than the players you've mentioned above.

That doesn't mean that he's the most eye catching. Just means that statistically speaking he's having a better season when all his said and done (based on the combined sum of all metrics).

Sorry, but I can't agree that someone who has played only 5 games is having a better year than the guys I have listed below (besides Dunkley/Hunter). So based on the AFL stat data you take Prestia ahead of the following players?

1. Dunkley.
2. Petrecca.
3. Merrett.
4. Yeo.
5. Parker.
6. Boak.
7. Hawkins.
8. Jack Steele.
9. McCluggage.
10. Lachie Hunter.
11. Mitch Duncan.

Just keep in mind that Prestia was interrupted with injuries in 2015 and 2016. He only managed 22 out of a possible 44 games (50% of matches). This would have brought his player rating down quite significantly in 2016. It was clearly a point in time where he was struggling to gain continuity.

Yes that is correct. You answered my validity of AFL stats. These ratings do not paint a picture of a players skill set or what the player is going through or team in general. What is to say that Papley won't have a better AFL rating in a better side compare to a rebuild Sydney are going through.

Here is another one.

Papley is currently rated 373.3 ratings.
Cameron is currently rated 341.8 ratings.

Which you one would you take between Papley or Cameron? Based on your commentary you would take Papley ahead of Cameron.

Here I can justify why Papley's rating has not risen in the past 3 years.

2017 Season
Swan I50's differential - +2.7 (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2017&type=DA&sby=20)
Papley's rating - 345.2

2018 Season
Swan I50's differential - -5.7 (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2018&type=DA&sby=20)
Papley's rating - 371.5

2019 Season - - 8.7 (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2019&type=DA&sby=20)
Papley's rating - -372.6

Based on the data I have collected, I would say I am impressed that Papley's rating has remain the same given that there has been less supply of I50's in which case you have stated that the AFL ratings measures "pressure acts, disposal efficiency, inside 50's, rebound 50's, score involvements".

Less i50's = Less pressure acts, inside 50's and score involvements which are a big part of a small forward gamestyle.

 

[Arr0w]

Got a better idea, how about we trade in a mid/forward, rather than a straight out mid or forward?

Wait.. another Jack Martin ?

Done

 

[OldBlueFan]

Not sure about his price tag, but I reckon Lachie Neale has been a great recruit for the Lions.

Wasn't a free agent. He was just a trade - a great one though.

I'm more wondering about the age that players become free agents, the publicity surrounding the whole thing, the potential FIGJAM factor etc. In the context of whether we want to be throwing huge free agency bucks at players, or whether we'd be better trying to get a Lachie Neale type deal or two done. Especially when, as others have said, draft picks carry a little less value this year and probably next.

 

[Blueballs38]

Or when you're on the rise and cusp of that.

No big trade is without risk...we'd need a clear vision of where we're at and what we need, and even with the best plans it might not work out in the end for whatever reason.

I remember people saying Brisbane paid overs for Charlie Cameron with pick 12 at the time...and this was before they made top 4. But he helped elevate them to top 4 and contenders. Now they haven't won a premiership, but a lot needs to go right to do that. Getting Cameron & Neale has propelled them to a position where they are a genuine chance of winning a premiership.

With our relatively settled team and stockpiled youngsters, now is the time to trade for A graders to fill holes and really push us up the ladder. We've also done some shrewd trading with the likes of Pitto, Setterfield, Plowman & Martin.

Shrewd, shrewd! Is that what you call it. Friggen amazing is what I would.

I like Pitto but let’s be honest he is a decent back up ruckman, not best 22 in a premiership side, that’s for TDK, but should he be out injured then Pitto will suffice.

But the other 3, best 22 if not best 10! and for what? A half eaten stale chip that a seagull refused to eat!

Setters instead of Shiel for a late second rounder instead of $1m and 2x 1st rounders and screwing over * in the process, can’t even remember what SOS paid for Plow but again cheap as chips and as for Martin, didn’t even cost the steam off one of SOS’s turds .... which was served up to GCS when we got him for zero!

Does anyone seriously remember our list after MM was sacked? All this has been achieved with minimal help from the AFL .... unlike Brisbane and GCS, when we finished below GSC that killed the AFL, they had to wait another year to give GCS help rather than helping both of us. The compensation we received that year and previous years when we were crap and taking our medicine was pitiful ... yet SOS turned it into Gibbo and Cotrell!.... not to mention the AFL coming in and scuppering our trades with dodgy ‘ambassador‘ deals .... I don’t like to spruik conspiracy but AFL by their actions have had it in for us for a long time ..... did you see them get involved in the Treloar deal, the Shiel deal, the O’Meara deal or the Tom Lynch deal (although he was a free agent) No! but the rabbit deal .... that was just plain disgraceful.

This is why I am just wrapped today. SOS has built an absolute amazing foundation and now all we need is the right bells and whistles. All from a position of Fitzroy type list vomit 4 short but painful years ago. Need I mention we also have the ammunition to add those bells and whistles with cap space and picks?

The gun is loaded and cocked.

SOS the marksman.

The AFL the target.

Our time is coming and revenge will be sweet!

 

[Blueballs38]

One player isn't the difference. It's how the team works as a collective unit.

Also, Richmond had hit the draft hard for a decade before making that move.

We could trade 2 x first round picks + player for Papley, only for Papley to do his ACL in round 1, 2021.

If there's no vaccine for Covid-19 before the commencement of the season, we might have a group of 10 players all get sick. If we've traded away our future first in a deal for Papley, if that's pick 1, that would be an absolute disaster.

Point is anything can happen. You can't just project only good things because life doesn't work that way.

Papley is worth a top 10 pick (as in pick 10 no lower) or points equivalent at best and not a penny more. If we pay more Sydney should also throw in some magic beans and our list manager should be called Jack.

That should be telegraphed to Papley and every other club in the AFL .... you wanna pay more ... pay it cause we won’t for a small forward. And Sydney, you want a dejected player on your list, good luck. We are paying overs with pick 10, but he is contracted and fills a need so no problem. But go rape another AFL club if you want more cause we aren’t paying.

You do not sell the farm for a small forward ..... trading 101

 

[Blueballs38]

Sure it holds water, just turn the umbrella upside down!

But regardless of how much you needed it, if you paid $200 for a $15 umbrella then you overpaid.

If GWS is desperate for a reliable ruckman who can be around for several years - and if they’re not they should be - and go and trade a couple of firsts for Preuss, then they well and truly overpaid.

The need doesn’t negate the price. It can be used to justify (to a degree) the cost, but it doesn’t remove it from the equation.

It’s shrewd trading that wins premierships not paying the farm for a player, any player.

Paying overs eventually catches up with you. Shrewd trading keeps you in your window for a hell of a lot longer.

Proof is all around. You just gotta look.

There is no quick fix. People are talking about Brisbane’s trades .... that was shrewd trading.

Paying way overs for Papley would be moronic trading. And I do want him!

 

[katmanblue]

It’s shrewd trading that wins premierships not paying the farm for a player, any player.

Paying overs eventually catches up with you. Shrewd trading keeps you in your window for a hell of a lot longer.

Proof is all around. You just gotta look.

There is no quick fix. People are talking about Brisbane’s trades .... that was shrewd trading.

Paying way overs for Papley would be moronic trading. And I do want him!

Paying overs repeatedly catches up with you. But doing it as a once off wouldn't. Especially since we have hit the draft so hard in recent years.

Although all of this conjecture is useless. We don't know if Papley or Kelly or anyone else for that matter will want to come to us this year. Nor do we know what the respective clubs will want for their players. So talking about 2x 1sts is pointless if they only ask for 1.

It's really a case of wait and see. So many opinions going around with people talking each other in circles. Same arguments over and over dressed up in different ways.

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[Bearded Carpenter]

Shrewd, shrewd! Is that what you call it. Friggen amazing is what I would.

I like Pitto but let’s be honest he is a decent back up ruckman, not best 22 in a premiership side, that’s for TDK, but should he be out injured then Pitto will suffice.

But the other 3, best 22 if not best 10! and for what? A half eaten stale chip that a seagull refused to eat!

Setters instead of Shiel for a late second rounder instead of $1m and 2x 1st rounders and screwing over * in the process, can’t even remember what SOS paid for Plow but again cheap as chips and as for Martin, didn’t even cost the steam off one of SOS’s turds .... which was served up to GCS when we got him for zero!

Does anyone seriously remember our list after MM was sacked? All this has been achieved with minimal help from the AFL .... unlike Brisbane and GCS, when we finished below GSC that killed the AFL, they had to wait another year to give GCS help rather than helping both of us. The compensation we received that year and previous years when we were crap and taking our medicine was pitiful ... yet SOS turned it into Gibbo and Cotrell!.... not to mention the AFL coming in and scuppering our trades with dodgy ‘ambassador‘ deals .... I don’t like to spruik conspiracy but AFL by their actions have had it in for us for a long time ..... did you see them get involved in the Treloar deal, the Shiel deal, the O’Meara deal or the Tom Lynch deal (although he was a free agent) No! but the rabbit deal .... that was just plain disgraceful.

This is why I am just wrapped today. SOS has built an absolute amazing foundation and now all we need is the right bells and whistles. All from a position of Fitzroy type list vomit 4 short but painful years ago. Need I mention we also have the ammunition to add those bells and whistles with cap space and picks?

The gun is loaded and cocked.

SOS the marksman.

The AFL the target.

Our time is coming and revenge will be sweet!

Can I have the rights to turn this into a movie please?

I can get Keanu Reeves to play SOS.

Got Steven Segal as a back up.

 

[Bluesclues2020]

Not sure if its been covered yet but bit of talk of Pickett possibly getting another crack at it next year
Kane cornes tweeted it

 

[Space Cadet]

It's $1M THIS year.

It's a 50% reduction for what they were getting in each specific month (7 of them). NOT an average.

I can't explain it any more simply. If you don't get it, I can't help. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain it in a way that's easier to understand.

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Martin's contract is arranged so that some of his 2022/3/4 salary is shuffled to this year, inflating it to over a million.

If you were a fringe player on a front ended contract of 200K this year and 50K next year (averaging 125K a year) and took a 50% cut this year, you'd be losing 100K.
Someone else with the same valued contract but back loaded would lose 25K.
You don't think that's unfair?