Bluemour Melting Pot XXIX

[DangerousD]

Beams

Is it really a relevant comparison? A player suffering from major mental health issues, on big money, who never got on the park, who couldn’t be traded.

Compared to a young player, having his best season, with 7-9 years ahead of him, no off field issues and could be traded if needed.

 

[DangerousD]

A mid to low 1st + a late 2nd

So our first, 8-9 plus a late second? My thoughts are pretty close and that if Freo got the top 10 pick, as long as they got an upgrade somewhere else, would do the deal.

I see this as quite fair and not high at all, for a proven commodity, as in, you have a relevant body of work, to determine output.

The $$$$ though

Would a FA like Hewitt, who would be free, but still cost $500,000 be better value?

Theres plenty of ways to get back in the draft if needed.

 

[Gethelred]

I am so so so confused by this, leaving the names out of it, why would you need to trade a player in the first place, if they were playing well enough to get a good return?

The only reason we raise players in hypothetical trade scenarios, is because they havent displayed the qualities required to progress the team and we want to get some value back, before there is zero value.

If a players has shown they aren’t up to it, don’t trade, but trade if they have, it seems totally backwards.

The idea being, don't trade unless you can upgrade. The pathway for players to come into Carlton needs to be either as an AFL player or delisting, not a trade and a continued contract.

Exhaust every possibility with a player's development. Dot every I, cross every T, and find a way to make even the lowest of picks work. If you can get quality from a trade, do so, but only trade when said trade can profit you or you have no other choice.

If SPS cannot make a go of it at AFL level at Carlton, I vehemently do not want it to be down to the fact that we let him go as steak knives in a trade to get a player with a higher floor but a lower ceiling.

 

[Arr0w]

So our first, 8-9 plus a late second? My thoughts are pretty close and that if Freo got the top 10 pick, as long as they got an upgrade somewhere else, would do the deal.

I see this as quite fair and not high at all, for a proven commodity, as in, you have a relevant body of work, to determine output.

The $$$$ though

Would a FA like Hewitt, who would be free, but still cost $500,000 be better value?

Theres plenty of ways to get back in the draft if needed.

Hewitt is a no brainer for me, get him anyway. Plays a number of roles, decent Ed replacement

 

[Gethelred]

Hewitt is a no brainer for me, get him anyway. Plays a number of roles, decent Ed replacement

Yep. Does a similar set of things, less endurance but better skills and taller, and is 26 compared to 34.

But then, I want them to develop Cuningham into the run-with player, so...

 

[Jeremias]

We could trade down with the dogs. Pick 17-18 + lipinski for 7-9. Then turn 17-18 + SPS for Cerra.

we basically turn SPS and our first for lipinski and Cerra.

Focusing in on the first part of this deal - this would be a very poor trade for Carlton.

I don't mind Lipinski, but assuming picks 18 and 9 you're valuing him at 484 points, or pick 37 (early third round selection).

Lipinski might kick on at a new club but as things stand he's a 23 year old fringe player. If both clubs agree that's his value, it's not difficult to generate that value - there's absolutely no need to even think about downgrading our first to get there.

 

[KohPhi]

Not aimed at anyone, but just a request ahead of silly season.

Can we try and make our trade hypotheticals at least moderately realistic. Please try and consider the trade from the non-Blues side.

Lopsided trade hypotheticals are lots of fun, but are kinda a waste of time.

Yours Sincerely,

ferrisb
Snr Sergeant
Trade Police

Agree.

Get Bontempelli

 

[bmaurizio]

Focusing in on the first part of this deal - this would be a very poor trade for Carlton.

I don't mind Lipinski, but assuming picks 18 and 9 you're valuing him at 484 points, or pick 37 (early third round selection).

Lipinski might kick on at a new club but as things stand he's a 23 year old fringe player. If both clubs agree that's his value, it's not difficult to generate that value - there's absolutely no need to even think about downgrading our first to get there.

Lipinski would be a great addition at 190 cm , a young midfielder with good upside and Cerra perhaps better potential & more consistent .
Snaring these two youngsters would upgrade our midfield tremendously.
Ruckman & KPD are other next targets.

 

[Jeremias]

Lipinski would be a great get, 190 cm midfielder young, good upside and Cerra similare potential more consistent these two youngsters would upgrade our midfield tremendously.
Ruckman & KPD are other next targets.

Not against getting him, but there's no need to involve our first pick in any trade to bring him across.

 

[Stamos]

Don't think he was really a player of need as such - more a luxury trade after falling agonisingly short in the Grand Final that year, and they could afford to fling the picks with Quaynor aligned.

It was more to do with the “whatever it takes to get them”. Pies ruined themselves overpaying, both picks and salary. I don’t think Cerra is the difference maker for us that his supposed cost would warrant.

 

[Stamos]

Well that’s abit narcissistic but maybe he is just waiting to see what happens at the end of the season with the coach. Even then though our club would be made to offer him a decent contract on his performances he has shown so he might still be looking elsewhere

Narcissistic?

 

[Stamos]

Is it really a relevant comparison? A player suffering from major mental health issues, on big money, who never got on the park, who couldn’t be traded.

Compared to a young player, having his best season, with 7-9 years ahead of him, no off field issues and could be traded if needed.

Yeah, it is. They overpaid, and they couldn’t afford it.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Narcissistic?

If he is blaming it all on other people rather then his own performances

 

[Stamos]

If he is blaming it all on other people rather then his own performances

I wasn't suggesting that (the blame).
I was suggesting that that is a distinct possibility of the reason he's not getting a game.

 

[Bryce Bubbles]

Cerra would be a fantastic addition in the perfect age bracket (He Walsh, Stocker and Dow are basically one year apart). My concern however is twofold:

1) Satisfying Freo will be incredibly difficult. Peter Bell is their version of Dodoro. Will most likely cost us SPS plus our first rounder which will mean no first round picks for two straight years.

2) Cerra will come over on approximately $700k - $750k. What does this mean in regard to retaining our up and coming stars? We better be able to keep all of Dow Walsh and Stocker. Also will this prevent us from gaining more senior experience/depth in the KPD position? ie- Jones’ eventual replacement.

I'd be happy with letting sps go and giving up our first this year. Let's be honsest sps ain't that great. Played a handful of good games and before anyone mentions he has been played out of position that's no excuse. Had chances in the middle and has t really performed except for the doggies games. If you are good enough within reason you can play in any position.

 

[branedotorg]

I’m guessing Freo will ask about Jack Carroll too - played for East Fremantle. Someone shared a rumour here that he was homesick or something like that.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

That was me but my source was very dubious, I was asking for corroboration as much as sharing

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I wasn't suggesting that (the blame).
I was suggesting that that is a distinct possibility of the reason he's not getting a game.

Fair enough, I find it hard to see past his form

 

[Manhattanite]

Still think the final games are pretty crucial for all parties involved and interested in Cerra.

Carlton are at the end of an external review, but have more elite young talent (as in AA caliber players) than most teams. Clearly underperformed in season 2021, but despite this still only sits 1 win behind his current team. Go home factor is obvious, and can also match Freo's offer contract wise. Wouldn't be walking in as Carlton's best midfielder, but has the opportunity to become this over time. Next game is a gimme, 2 following will determine a hell of a lot - the club can still play finals and that would be a clear indication the squad is headed in the right direction if the team can jag a couple of wins the last few rounds against quality opposition.

Cerra could be a very good midfielder but there is NO CHANCE he or anyone else coming in could become our best midfielder over time. Not even Bont or Oliver coming in could ever become our best mid. Not even a young 2001 Judd or 2001 Ablett could come in and become our best mid over time.

We already have the GOAT and he’s just getting started.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[DangerousD]

The idea being, don't trade unless you can upgrade. The pathway for players to come into Carlton needs to be either as an AFL player or delisting, not a trade and a continued contract.

Exhaust every possibility with a player's development. Dot every I, cross every T, and find a way to make even the lowest of picks work. If you can get quality from a trade, do so, but only trade when said trade can profit you or you have no other choice.

If SPS cannot make a go of it at AFL level at Carlton, I vehemently do not want it to be down to the fact that we let him go as steak knives in a trade to get a player with a higher floor but a lower ceiling.

Cheers, I’d like to think after 4-5 years, the coaches and list managers have seen enough to know if a player will make it or not and if it’s decided they don’t fit in our plans moving forward, they should be moved on, getting the best deal we can, the lost needs to be turned over and I’d rather see guys who have had 4-5 years moved on, than guys, who haven’t had the chance.

Regardless if it’s steak knives or not, I don’t see SPS being in Blue next year.

 

[Cripptonite]

I'd be happy with letting sps go and giving up our first this year. Let's be honsest sps ain't that great. Played a handful of good games and before anyone mentions he has been played out of position that's no excuse. Had chances in the middle and has t really performed except for the doggies games. If you are good enough within reason you can play in any position.

I kind of agree. SPS definitely has some value. Think he’d thrive more on a wing or half forward flank at Freo. The part of the proposed deal I don’t like is the first rounder. I’d be doing everything I could to hold onto it.

It may be a very unpopular opinion on here but I’d potentially even throw Fisher into a deal for Cerra if it meant we held onto our first round pick. Fisher is no doubt a handy best 22 player but I feel we have players that could pick up the slack such as Newnes Williams Cuningham Owies Martin Honey Dow Gibbons.

Maybe SPS, Fisher and a pick upgrade in Freos favour for Cerra? Helps clear some cap space too for new contracts.

 

[Gethelred]

Cheers, I’d like to think after 4-5 years, the coaches and list managers have seen enough to know if a player will make it or not and if it’s decided they don’t fit in our plans moving forward, they should be moved on, getting the best deal we can, the lost needs to be turned over and I’d rather see guys who have had 4-5 years moved on, than guys, who haven’t had the chance.

Regardless if it’s steak knives or not, I don’t see SPS being in Blue next year.

To a certain extent, this is about more than SPS. This is about our development; our attitude towards development is entirely based from being badly burned before.

Sydney succeed because while they know how and when to let go they do so early; Macreadie they let us take in the draft instead of drafting themselves. If they rate a player, they're able to let them sit in their system until they're either worth a trade - ie, that they'll get something worth a damn for them - or they'll delist them. We have no such incentive; if you come to Carlton, you'd best hope you make good on your game immediately, else you're not picking up a contract elsewhere.

We need to turn that around. Players have no need to come here and work, no reason to trust our coaches or our setup. Players have every reason to look outside of Carlton for development, and every reason to believe that they cannot take time to themselves, trust their coaches that they're doing enough. Gowers is a well stated case for someone drafted by Carlton who thinks that while he was here footy was his entire life, and only by removing the intensity of that focus had he been able to achieve his best; there was an interview after a Geelong game with Lachie Henderson, who stated that the difference between his being delisted by Geelong a few years ago and his continuing being an AFL player is down to being able to take some time away, to being able to stop and relax.

We need to go into each listed player with the intent that that player will play AFL in their role. We need to make each list position count.

The way we do that is by changing our philosophy. We change how we approach recruiting, and we change how we approach development. We change how we approach trading, and specifically we do not let a trade become a way out.

Either a player leaves our system an AFL player, or we pride ourselves on giving it the best damn shot imaginable.

 

[JustaBattler]

The plan was Harry/Charlie/Mitch to dominate any defensive structure in the competition - it could and should still happen.

 

[TerryWallet]

The plan was Harry/Charlie/Mitch to dominate any defensive structure in the competition - it could and should still happen.

Charlie, Harry, McG, Jack and TDK has been the dream combo.

Next year we might see them all developed, all fit and all ready to perform.

It's what i've been waiting patiently for.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I kind of agree. SPS definitely has some value. Think he’d thrive more on a wing or half forward flank at Freo. The part of the proposed deal I don’t like is the first rounder. I’d be doing everything I could to hold onto it.

It may be a very unpopular opinion on here but I’d potentially even throw Fisher into a deal for Cerra if it meant we held onto our first round pick. Fisher is no doubt a handy best 22 player but I feel we have players that could pick up the slack such as Newnes Williams Cuningham Owies Martin Honey Dow Gibbons.

Maybe SPS, Fisher and a pick upgrade in Freos favour for Cerra? Helps clear some cap space too for new contracts.

Pls. God no.

The plan was Harry/Charlie/Mitch to dominate any defensive structure in the competition - it could and should still happen.

Yes, I think it will happen, but all good plans have good fail safes and change ups when something doesn't work (injury)...

 

[Garters]

Thats my point though, I think Cerra's cost is far too high. We have emerging talent on our list and we can add more in the draft. The list is lacking talls more than anything else, so any recruitment that has some cost that doesn't address that is likely hampering our ability to build proper tall depth on the squad.

No doubting Cerra has potential to build on where he is at, but at a similar time in his career Newnes was looked at like Cerra is now, up and coming future gun wing who can go inside too. I really don't think Cerra is worth the huge paycheck and draft pick cost to not be that much of an upgrade at all and to a position we have people developing in already, and that is traditionally not too hard to draft for.

Basically the cost just feels far too steep.

As a collective all sides have such a short and finite window for pieces of a list to align at the same time. Cripps was 22 at the start of this journey and this build was to be around him. On current trajectory we are already too late to maximise that strategy. We can go to the draft (which for midfielders is my preferred choice BTW) however for a kid drafted now puts most on the list over 25 currently, out of the picture on terms of hitting peak output collectively. We don't have the time if you are going to maximise those heavy draft years of 4 / 5 yrs ago. We got some selections wrong and now we have to back fill. If a couple of draft picks of ours had developed as expected we wouldn't be having this conversation. But no one get them all right. It also really shines a light on the mcG trade and the Williams trade in terms of value/ age /cost v required output. It's a nuanced juggling act. Will we get it right? ..........