Let me just ask everyone these questions to really kick something off!
Where are we at?
Will we improve? Why will we improve?
Will we decline? Why will we decline?
Are we going to finish 8th again? Why will we finish 8th again?
Has our list improved from 2013? How has our list improved from 2013?
Which clubs will or have the potential to over take us? And why?
We are at the start of a peak period.
Half our players in our best 22 are under 25 which means there should be room for plenty of improvement within the group next year.
There is about a 90% chance we will improve and about a 70% chance we will improve our ladder position.
We will only decline through injury or a severe form slump. The only two players at the age of potential decline, Newman & Foley, will be lucky to hold their spots next year so do not really impact our overall performance as a club.
8th is better than 9th but hopefully we are closer to or in top 4 next year.
Our list has consolidated since 2013. We probably have 6-8 players outside of our best 22 who would push for selection each week. In 2013 we only had about 1-2 players in this position.
Collingwood could take over us but they won't under Buckley because he can't coach.
Adelaide are probably the closest but are mentally weak.
West Coast don't have the midfield.
Gold Coast could improve under a new coach but they rely too heavily on an aging superstar.
I'd be shocked if the bottom 6 move up much next year.
Fremantle, Essendon, North and Geelong are unlikely to improve any more than us. North could get lucky if their mature age recruits stay injury free.
Sydney, Hawthorn and Port are likely to hold strong, maybe too strong for us, but we could definitely push ourselves close to top 4. We probably won't know where we are at until we play Port in round 8, unless we lose more than 3 of our first 7.
We could win 16+ next year. BUT we could also drop back if we get unlucky.
The good thing is we won't slip into the 8 next year. Doubles with the big 4, North and Fremantle mean we will have to earn our place in September.