Prediction Bold Prediction 2018

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Crippa said:
Cherry-picking is the hallmark of a person who's lost an argument, so thanks.
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When the majority of your posts consist of 'Andrew Demetriou would have loved you on his propaganda team' or calling me an Andrew Demetriou apologist, as well as the current quote, you don't really give me much else to work with Sippa.

Ad hominem attacks are an even greater indicator of someone who has lost an argument, so yeah, no worries.



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Wally Walpamur said:
Sure we can have an issue with it, what are people’s solution to this? What would you suggest to the AFL given the current fixture structure?
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In spite of the complaining, teams can play 34 games and still have finals, a holiday and preseason. Teams will need to rest players, might need a bigger squad, but just play each team twice. If players don't like it, they can just go back to bricklaying, merchant banking or whatever, no one is making them play AFL - I bet that no one say's "get stuffed" to the longer season and goes back to the day job on a significant smaller salary. It might also give some impetus to cull a Victorian team or two.

If your going to stick with the current number of rounds, just have 1 set schedule, team 1 plays 2, then 3, then 4 up to round 17, keep alternating home and away. Then the fixture just resets, round 18 you play team 3 up until team 6 in round 22 is done. Next season starts at team 7 - etc. Some seasons you get a better fixture, others are harder, but has an underlying fairness, if it gives a team a dream run or a woeful fixture, one year, so be it, it's better than deliberately rigging the fixture just for tv ratings.
 

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Crippa said:
If you are good enough to overcome an unfair advantage to the opposition, then yes, you can overcome it. That's deductively true.

The question remains, though, how much better than the opposition do some teams needs to be in order to be "good enough" to win on the day? That's an empirical question involving a whole host of variables, including MCG home ground advantage in finals, incompetent or corrupt umpiring, etc. Such variables are capable of affecting the outcome of matches (close ones especially) in such a way that it makes sense to say "the better team was denied a victory unfairly".

The slogan pedalled by someone on here (not you) that "the better team wins 100% of matches" is meaningless, except as a sop for the masses.
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IMO:
- We can literally do nothing about distance.
- Nothing can be done about the GF at MCG until 2038 (or whenever).
- Whilst there are exceptions, the simple fact is umpire bashing is the single most confirmation bias activity going. Every team, every game gets a rough ride apparently.

Making excuses about things you can't change is loser talk. It's not fair but its not changing. Move on and make the most of what you have.
 
I think a fair fixture is the proposed 17 & 5; play each team once and after that the ladder is broken down into top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6. Top 2 of top 6 get home finals and double chance, top 2 of middle 6 play finals, top 2 of bottom 6 get draft picks 1 & 2.

Although I don’t know how he AFL plan/schedule the remaining 5 fixtures given they won’t know ladder position until round 17.

Even just discussing it on a forum, it’s easy to see how difficult the task is for the AFL and this may be an unpopular view but I think they do a pretty good job.
 
Joao said:
Making excuses about things you can't change is loser talk. It's not fair but its not changing. Move on and make the most of what you have.
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The team may be losers if they dwell on it, but a bunch of supporters discussing it has zero impact on whether we win or lose.

The Ross Lyon mantra "there are no excuses" is not a literal truth. It's a psychological device he uses to motivate his players (which is why, for example, he's refused ever to mention that goal that was called a point in the 2009 GF which changed the momentum of that game). That is laudable and virtuous in a coach. But I see no special virtue in supporters who choose to adopt that line for whatever reason.
 
Crippa said:
The team may be losers if they dwell on it, but a bunch of supporters discussing it has zero impact on whether we win or lose.

The Ross Lyon mantra "there are no excuses" is not a literal truth. It's a psychological device he uses to motivate his players (which is why, for example, he's refused ever to mention that goal that was called a point in the 2009 GF which changed the momentum of that game). That is laudable and virtuous in a coach. But I see no special virtue in supporters who choose to adopt that line for whatever reason.
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I understand it has no effect, but the point still stands. Nothing to do with Freo's performance but everything to do with posting on this forum.

Each to their own I guess.
 
I predict it will be revealed before this year is out that Richard Goyder has intervened in the administration of the league.
I believe the recent sensible change to the MRP was instigated by the new chairman.
Obviously it is too late this year for a fixturing overhaul but expect to see during the year leaks from AFL house regarding fixture methodology changes for next year.
A change to the administration of the umpiring dept can really occur at any time and I predict there will be a significant shift in the entire umpire system.

Expect the new Goyder imperative for the league to return to being a fans first sporting body to be evident by mid year; it has already started, imo, with the MRP and tribunal system changes.

Gambling is another area that is anathema to the game. The AFL's engagement in the gambling industry is simply not healthy: Since when has the average footy fan been interested in seeing segments in football programs being dedicated to betting odds?......I predict a backing off from the league this year.

Fixturing, MRP and umpiring are the most contentious areas of the league, causing the most consternation among fans. I predict major improvements.
 
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Fred Ziffel said:
...
Fixturing, MRP and umpiring are the most contentious areas of the league, causing the most consternation among fans. I predict major improvements.
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Scham said:
I'd obviously take points 2 and 3 and love it but your first point I'd take too. Sort of.

I can handle us having only 6 wins providing we don't lose any game by more than 40 points and the majority of the losses are below 30 pts, but being in games at 3/4 time and falling away in a lot of games will totally suck. Would prefer a gradually increasing losing margin over the course of the game, that way it would suggest class overcame us not a lack of fitness or being blown away in a small patch of the game or when the pressure was on.
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I didn't mind how freos 2017 panned out overall. It was way better than what we did in 2016. Freo had 8 wins in 2017. On one side freo won 4 games by under a goal. On the other hand we lost by 89 points to port and lost by over 100 points 3 times. Interesting trade off.

The min thing was e played a lot of youth and I expect the same again in 2018.
 
Nice format and can agree with a lot of what you've said purplerunsdeep

Final Position: 12th

B&F: Blakely

Best first year: Brayshaw

Retirees: Bennell, Johnson (mid-season due to injury), Mundy, Ballantyne, Spurr, Sandilands

Delistings: Apeness (injury), Sutcliffe, D. Pearce

Leading goal kicker: Taberner (50)

Surprise packet: Taberner gets enough games to show his talent

Premiership: Essendon

Runner up: Port Adelaide

Wooden spoon: North Melbourne

WAFL premiership: Peel

WCE finish position: 13th

First coach to be sacked: No one

Brownlow: Kelly or Bontempelli (but only because of his unique name making him stand out and media hype)

Norm Smith: Joe Daniher
 

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Wally Walpamur said:
I think a fair fixture is the proposed 17 & 5; play each team once and after that the ladder is broken down into top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6. Top 2 of top 6 get home finals and double chance, top 2 of middle 6 play finals, top 2 of bottom 6 get draft picks 1 & 2.

Although I don’t know how he AFL plan/schedule the remaining 5 fixtures given they won’t know ladder position until round 17.

Even just discussing it on a forum, it’s easy to see how difficult the task is for the AFL and this may be an unpopular view but I think they do a pretty good job.
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Better idea: merge two Vic teams, fold another four and get rid of Gold Coast.

Have a 12 team, 22 round comp where everyone plays each other at home and away.
 
ep2006 said:
Better idea: merge two Vic teams, fold another four and get rid of Gold Coast.

Have a 12 team, 22 round comp where everyone plays each other at home and away.
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6 game rounds will reduce the revenue and scale of the professional game by approx one third - however don’t mind the sentiment behind the suggestion.
 
exxcessivve said:
Nice format and can agree with a lot of what you've said purplerunsdeep

Final Position: 12th

B&F: Blakely

Best first year: Brayshaw

Retirees: Bennell, Johnson (mid-season due to injury), Mundy, Ballantyne, Spurr, Sandilands

Delistings: Apeness (injury), Sutcliffe, D. Pearce

Leading goal kicker: Taberner (50)

Surprise packet: Taberner gets enough games to show his talent

Premiership: Essendon

Runner up: Port Adelaide

Wooden spoon: North Melbourne

WAFL premiership: Peel

WCE finish position: 13th

First coach to be sacked: No one

Brownlow: Kelly or Bontempelli (but only because of his unique name making him stand out and media hype)

Norm Smith: Joe Daniher
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Why Essendon may I ask?
 
Fred Ziffel said:
That's not outrageous SW.
Tell me, do we make the GF ?.....Freo Sydney GF would be bloody awesome for the colours alone.
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Would love to see a Freo Sydney GF but I don’t think it will happen this year. We will win our elimination final and go out in the next round. I’m thinking we are building to have a serious team by 2020 but these next couple of years are going to be exciting. I think we are building the best list we will ever have had.
BTW I see what you mean about Crowden Fred,he’s going to be a beauty, so is Logue and Tucker. We will scare a few very good teams this year.
 
Steinfreo said:
Why Essendon may I ask?
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I think their forward line is the best in the competition, a nice mix with Stringer, Smith, Fantasia, Stewart, Tippa (when not in defence) and Daniher. Got some pretty good speed out of defence with Tippa, Saad and McKenna, as well as Hurley who's a marking machine and constantly saves the day like Jeremy McGovern does for WCE. Last year they showed they could compete well with most teams. Also they're my second team and I feel like it'd be another "brave story" like the last two years.
I don't think with a heap of confidence that they're gonna win it, but it's my bold prediction
 
exxcessivve said:
I think their forward line is the best in the competition, a nice mix with Stringer, Smith, Fantasia, Stewart, Tippa (when not in defence) and Daniher. Got some pretty good speed out of defence with Tippa, Saad and McKenna, as well as Hurley who's a marking machine and constantly saves the day like Jeremy McGovern does for WCE. Last year they showed they could compete well with most teams. Also they're my second team and I feel like it'd be another "brave story" like the last two years.
I don't think with a heap of confidence that they're gonna win it, but it's my bold prediction
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I agree and think the AFL will be gently helping it along.
 
exxcessivve said:
Do you mean #FreekickBombers, or by some other means?
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There is a number of ways they can "assist". Fixturing is one. Umpiring is another as you rightly suggest. MRP and tribunal leniency another. Finals fixturing etc.

But you're right also, they have the makings of a good team, very, very good facilities and a very good coaching team.
 
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