Opinion Bottom 4 and top 4 teams in 3 years

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Oct 6, 2013
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Top 4(not in order):

Geelong

GWS

Collingwood

Western Bulldogs

Bottom 4(not in order):

Essendon

North Melbourne

Gold Coast

Carlton

Someone remind me to come back to this in 3 years
 
Last edited:

magut

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Post which teams you see in the bottom 4 and top 4 in 3 years from now, order doesn't matter.

Apologies if there is a thread like this but I couldn't see one.

Bottom 4:
1. North Melbourne
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney

Top 4:
1. Melbourne
2. Carlton
3. Fremantle
4. Adelaide

the 'bottom four' of OP were actually the top 4 four years later! :drunk::drunk::drunk:
 

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Mar 19, 2008
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I am more amused they chose Melbourne and Carlton as the top two teams.
Some people think its pretty much a no brainer to bottom out, get draft picks , then all the high quality players take the team to the top again.
The real problem is that some of those people work in AFL clubs.
 
May 10, 2007
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Post which teams you see in the bottom 4 and top 4 in 3 years from now, order doesn't matter.

Apologies if there is a thread like this but I couldn't see one.

Bottom 4:
1. North Melbourne
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney

Top 4:
1. Melbourne
2. Carlton
3. Fremantle
4. Adelaide

Thats a pretty poor effort.
 
May 29, 2008
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2016:
Top 4: (1)West Coast, (2)Bulldogs, (3)Hawthorn, (4)Fremantle
Bottom 4: (15) St Kilda (16) Carlton (17) Brisbane (18) Essendon

2017:
Top 4: (1) Bulldogs (2) GWS (3) West Coast (4) Gold Coast
Bottom 4: (15) Brisbane (16) Geelong (17) North Melbourne (18) Essendon

2018
Top 4: (1) GWS (2) Bulldogs (3) Gold Coast (4) Carlton
Bottom 4: (15) Geelong (16) Fremantle (17) Essendon (18) North Melbourne

No chance.
 

M Malice

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2015- top 4. hawthorn, west coast, fremantle, north melbourne.
bottom 4. carlton, brisbane, gold coast, essendon.

2018- top 4. GWS, western bulldogs, port adelaide, gold coast.
bottom 4. north melbourne, carlton, fremantle, st.kilda.
 
2015- top 4. hawthorn, west coast, fremantle, north melbourne.
bottom 4. carlton, brisbane, gold coast, essendon.

2018- top 4. GWS, western bulldogs, port adelaide, gold coast.
bottom 4. north melbourne, carlton, fremantle, st.kilda.

Poor carlton
 

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Pavlovs Cat

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2016:
Top 4: (1)West Coast, (2)Bulldogs, (3)Hawthorn, (4)Fremantle
Bottom 4: (15) St Kilda (16) Carlton (17) Brisbane (18) Essendon

2017:
Top 4: (1) Bulldogs (2) GWS (3) West Coast (4) Gold Coast
Bottom 4: (15) Brisbane (16) Geelong (17) North Melbourne (18) Essendon

2018
Top 4: (1) GWS (2) Bulldogs (3) Gold Coast (4) Carlton
Bottom 4: (15) Geelong (16) Fremantle (17) Essendon (18) North Melbourne

LMAO
 
Your predictions. That's cool though, it is your opinion. My opinion is that your prediction was funny. Hope I'm still laughing in three years though!
Mehh Norths been predicted for bottom 4 since 2010.
Hasnt happened. Too many other soulless clubs who rate tanking higher.
 
Nov 26, 2007
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If it's "in 3 years time", I'll have a stab at predicting it for 2018, and why I think the club will be where they are at.

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TOP 4:

Port Adelaide - I think their 2014 was sorta like Hawthorn's 2008 (minus actually jagging the flag), and although they had a "got so close" hangover in 2015, I think that over the next 3-5 years they will be a consistent Top 4 and premiership threat.

The Power have young talent on every line that is committing to the club, and even if they do happen to lose Ollie Wines, they've still got a fantastic list, and an exceptional coach at the helm. Can see them winning a flag in the next 3 years, or at the very least contending in a Grand Final.

Richmond - Obviously a bit of bias here, but I think there's plenty of merit in this selection as well. Despite elimination final exits in the past 3 finals series, the positive of this is that the team has now had an ample taste of what finals footy (and more importantly, finals heartbreak) is like, but given the nature of their results in these finals, will absolutely not be satisfied with what has been achieved.

Whilst teams such as North and Fremantle can hang their hats on PF's and GF appearances, the truth is that Richmond has done absolutely nothing yet except experience heartbreak, and this makes them a dangerous beast over the next 3-4 years. Personally, I expect the playing group to be super hungry and pushing hard for the ultimate glory even as soon as 2016, but honestly, given that Hardwick started turning the club over in 2010, it's really the next few years that the Tigers should expect to be right in contention, given conventional rebuilding timeframes.

The theory from skeptics is that the club doesn't have the raw talent to compete with your GC's and GWS's within the next 2-3 years, but I don't think this is valid either, as the list is littered with 1st round draft picks from the past 8-10 years of drafting, that have largely proven themselves as players and are beginning to come into their peak times as footballers. While the bottom end of the Tigers talent pool has probably been the bane of the club's existence in the past few years, the club has improved its' depth stocks with the additions of promising youngster Daniel Rioli as another potential 1st round gun. Plus, with the addition of Chris Yarran, who at only 25 years old still has his best football ahead of him, and the Tigers list has added more quality talent than it's lost for 2016 in those 2 players alone.

Provided it doesn't lose any big name players over the next couple of years (Richmond has the best retention rate of it's star players in the competition), there's absolutely no reason for Richmond NOT to be contending for Top 4 in 2018.

Western Bulldogs - I ballsed up my prediction on these guys in 2015, and I'm not going to do it again. While I think there's a very real possibility that the Dogs could miss finals in 2016 due to a tougher draw and more scrutiny on their "run 'n gun" gameplan by opposition clubs, the list is simply far too talented to not be going places, and it would require a major screw up to not be pushing for Top 4 status by 2018.

The Western Bulldogs probably have the best overall group of "under 23's" in the competition, considering that the bulk of their Best 22 that won 14 games in 2015 IS infact under 23. If they could add some B+ or A- graders from FA, they could be pushing even sooner than 2018, but either way, there are some good times ahead for the Doggies after some struggles earlier in the decade.

Greater Western Sydney - I think one of the expansion clubs will be in Top 4 status by 2018, and I think that GWS's rock-solid culture and smart veteran recruiting has them well on track. Unlike Gold Coast, who put all their chips on Gary Ablett, GWS have slowly and steadily built their young list from the ground up, and have complimented that growing list with veterans who have had alot to offer over the past 3-4 years.

Names such as Dean Brogan, Shane Mumford, Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen, and now Stevie J have been astute recruiting decisions that have helped and will continue to help fast track the kids' development. Unlike their counterpart Gold Coast, who have lost numerous core start-up players over the past few years, the only "name" player that GWS has lost so far is Adam Treloar, and whilst he is a gun and will be missed, they have basically managed to retain every one of their other star young players.

In 2018, they will be a force to be reckoned with, and will by then have built a reputation similar to what their big brother the Sydney Swans currently have, as tough, ruthless, and lethal on every line.

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BOTTOM 4:

North Melbourne - The Kangaroos have been up and competing well into the finals series for the past few seasons, and generally under the Brad Scott era they have been incredibly competitive. Despite lacking the true top line quality to be a premiership winner with this group, it is hard to argue with their top 10-12 players being incredibly good players still, which has got them to the last 2 preliminary finals.

However, the problem for North is, many of those top 10-12 players are simply on the wrong side of father time. With the clear outright oldest list in the competition going into 2016, there's a good possibility that North could yet jag that ever elusive flag this year and become the premiers, but by 2018 when they've lost a large portion of their Best 22 in very quick succession, they will experience a plummet that will not be friendly. Now, if they DO get a flag in 2016, you could argue that the inevitable fall may be worth it, but whatever happens, the fall is coming.

This year they are in an almost identical position to where the Western Bulldogs were in 2010, and for North, 2016 is equivalent to that 2010 Bulldogs' team in my opinion. This is it, it's their time in 2016 to win the whole thing, and they need to strike while the iron is still hot, because by 2018, North will be rebuilding their list just like the Dogs were in 2012.

They would be wise to stop dabbling in FA from post-2016 on-wards and just focus on regeneration through the draft.

Carlton - The Blues list is so far off being competitive that this is a given. Brendan Bolton will be a good coach for them, and he's done the right thing by cutting loose more than 1/3 of the list. Whilst guys such as Henderson, Yarran, and Menzel are all very talented, the fact is that Carlton are 5 years away from being a finalist again, and rather than let those guys rot away, they were wise to get value for them at the trade table to help rebuild their list, whilst letting those guys move on to teams that are better placed to have a crack at finals moving forward.

They invested HEAVILY into the 2015 draft, and don't be surprised if the Blues are investing heavily into the next 3-4 drafts. I fully expect that by 2018, there will be less than 8 or 9 players left from the team that suited up in 2015, but that can only be a positive thing for the Bluebaggers.

They are where my team, the Tigers, were at the end of 2009/start of 2010. It's gonna be a long 2 or 3 years, but I think 2018 will be the last year of them being a Bottom 4 team. Still, they will be a Bottom 4 team nonetheless.

Essendon - Perhaps the only team in a more precarious position than North Melbourne in regards to their future is the Bombers. Until the verdict has been handed down by CAS, it's almost impossible to predict what will happen with their list even going into this season, let alone 2018.

However, even if everything went right from this point on-wards regarding that decision, I do feel that this playing group of Essendon will be left with permanent scars that will stop them from hitting their true potential, and I also feel that the club as a whole will really start to feel the sting of the draft sanctions and financial penalties that they have copped in recent years. My belief is that by 2018, they will be in a phase similar to where Carlton is at now, completely regenerating their list with only a couple of stalwarts left from this group.

Worsfold is a good choice of coach for this next time period, as he'll be able to cope with the media pressure if the Dons have a few poor seasons, but the reality is, Essendon have already lost some major talent in the past 2-3 years (eg. Crameri, Ryder, Carlisle), and what remains of their current list is either relatively untried, or has too much baggage at this point to be effective. And if the CAS goes against the Bombers, well that will only compound their issues.

Fremantle - While in my mind the first 3 teams on this list were relatively straightforward selections for me, finding a 4th team to put here was more difficult. I had toyed with the idea of putting Geelong, but given their recent additions of relatively young experienced and talented players to their list, plus some promising youngsters, I don't see Geelong falling into the Bottom 4.

I also considered the Hawks, but I feel that they have too strong a culture to fall away that far (though they will still drop somewhat), and I also can't see regular Bottom 4 players such as Melbourne, St. Kilda, or Brisbane STILL being in the same position, given the way those clubs have recruited recently. I also considered Sydney, but with some of their younger talent committing, and given their culture of not bottoming out, I can't see that happening either.

Thus, Fremantle was really my only choice left, and for Dockers fan I unfortunately don't have any new arguments for you, my argument is the same as many others. But that's because it's a sound argument against them... namely, behind North Melbourne, they are the 2nd oldest list in the competition, and are probably North Melbourne's chief rival for the 2016 premiership, but they have the majority of their chips on the "now", not on the future, which has always been Lyon's way.

By 2018, they will have simply lost too much quality experience that will be too difficult to replace to remain competitive without falling away, even if it was only for a couple of seasons. They will still have a couple of stars, such as Fyfe and Walters, however I cannot fathom how they are going to replace Pavlich, Sandilands, Mundy, Johnson, Pearce (Daniel), Dawson, and Ballantyne, who by 2018 will all have retired or be very close to the end by then.

They are not QUITE as bad as North in this regard, as they do have some genuine young superstars with the aforementioned Fyfe, Walters, and also the emerging Lachie Neale, but I don't think they will have anywhere near enough depth to be competitive by 2018, unless they go the North Melbourne route and raid FA.

Personally, I don't think they will, and I believe that by 2018, Ross Lyon will have moved on from Fremantle, and they'll have a new bloke in to usher in a new era at the Dockers, that will begin with gaining some valuable draft picks at the end of 2018.

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Those are my thoughts on what the Top and Bottom 4 will look like, I'm sure some of you will disagree, but hey, at the end of the day, nobody really knows, as there's always an element of luck and timing involved with this sorta stuff!
 
Last edited:

Lsta062

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In 3 years time (2019), I have no idea of course but I'll try:

Top 4:

Bulldogs
St Kilda
Essendon
Port Adelaide

5-8

GWS
Fremantle
Carlton
Melbourne

9-13

Collingwood
Brisbane
Sydney
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Geelong


Bottom 4:

West Coast
Richmond
North Melbourne
Adelaide

Honestly, I can't even get the following year right, let alone in 3 years time.
 
May 28, 2013
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Anyone who says the Pies will be bottom 4 are on some pretty good drugs. 2016 should be the year that the club aims for a flag again because by this stage we'll have the majority of our side still in or entering their peak and we should no real weak positions across the field. Between now and then I expect just one best 22 player to have retired, that being Luke Ball. Although they will play game time in 2014 I don't believe Maxy or Q-Stick are best 22.

Keeffe and Brown will flourish together as KPD's. Both have had there injury troubles in the past 2-3 years and have only played in defence together during the last 7-8 games of last season. Especially watch for Keeffe to become close to All-Australian in the next few years as long as he continues to play defence (WTF were they thinking playing him ruck-fwd in the EF??). Tooves will be the eldest player in defence at 29 and will be alongside any of Scharenberg, Williams and one of Ramsay, Oxley, Seedsman or Langdon.

We will have a top 3 ruck in the comp, something we haven't had since I can remember. Then alongside Grundy will be Pendles, Beams, Sidebottom, Adams, Thomas, Young, Lumumba, Freeman and Broomhead, not that u can fit all of those blokes in.

Trav and Reidy will still be able to kick 50+ each in 2016. Hopefully White can do something as a FWD/RUC but I'm not really banking on it. Then there is small/medium fwds in Elliott, Fasolo and Kennedy, by 2016 Swanny will be causing havoc as an almost permanent forward. The club also has high hopes for Patty Karnezis as well as Jonothan Marsh who's a freak athlete.

If we don't make at least top 4 then either something has gone terribly wrong e.g Heaps of injuries or it's that Bucks is coaching like s**t and should therefore be sacked.

I'm happy to have a good argument with people who have queries about what I say but boy am I keen to see the young players develop in the next few years :)
Bucks.
 

Meow

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Time for another crack

Top 4:
GWS
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Melbourne

Bottom 4:
West Coast
Hawthorn
Richmond
North Melbourne
 
Mar 28, 2010
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In 3 years time (2019), I have no idea of course but I'll try:

Top 4:

Bulldogs
St Kilda
Essendon
Port Adelaide

5-8

GWS
Fremantle
Carlton
Melbourne

9-13

Collingwood
Brisbane
Sydney
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Geelong


Bottom 4:

West Coast
Richmond
North Melbourne
Adelaide

Honestly, I can't even get the following year right, let alone in 3 years time.

From this I'd swap GWS into top four, Port into 9-13 and I'd put Sydney in 5-8.
 

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