Opinion Bottom 4 and top 4 teams in 3 years

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anotherletdown said:
Top 4
GWS
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane (watch for the copious Victorian tears when people realise their rebuilds were overtaken by Brisbane's)

Bottom 4
Hawthorn
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Collingwood
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I'm happy with the last results but I reckon this is harder as so many of the recent draftees are relatively unknown and player retention at GC and GWS is always a factor.

Top 4 - super competitive
Melbourne
Fremantle
Sydney
North Melbourne

Bottom 4
Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
 
This is just a pure guess, but it may look something like this:

Top 4
Fremantle
Essendon
Carlton
Brisbane

Bottom 4
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Richmond
West Coast
 

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Chaisa said:
I'm going to try this again:

Top 4:

Western Bulldogs - world-class midfield of Bontempelli, Macrae, Smith, Dunkley, Treloar and Hunter which should still be great by 2024. 3 great/potentially great key forwards in Naughton, Jamarra and Darcy, with Bruce still being around. Daniel, Dale and Williams as backline generals. Weightman the star small forward. English the multi-positional weapon. Will be up there for a long time, especially if they find another key defender.

Sydney - have the perfect attacking weapons for a team with Dawson, Blakey, Campbell, Gulden, McInerney. 3 potentially top-class onballers in Mills, Rowbottom and Warner. Class medium forwards in Heeney, Hayward, Papley and (at that point in his career) Parker. McCartin and McDonald the core of a great spine. Maybe a couple of queries in the talls but still a very impressive nucleus.

Melbourne - midfield core of Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw and Langdon still at their best, with good depth in Jordan, Harmes and Sparrow. Pickett likely to be the best small forward in the comp at that point and their collection of smalls + mediums in him, Fritsch, Spargo and Neal-Bullen still strong. Defensive core of Lever, May, Petty, Salem, Hunt, Rivers and Bowey still good and have one potentially elite ruck in Jackson with complements from the aging Gawn. Key fowards a question mark.

Brisbane - will probably start to drop off somewhat by this point - all of Gardiner, Neale, Lyons, Daniher, Cameron, McCarthy, McStay and McInerney will either be over or nearing 30 - but their side will still have lots and lots of talent with McCluggage, Andrews, Hipwood, Starcevich, Bailey, Rayner, Berry and Robertson at the peak of the powers as well as those guys still being near their peak. Replacing Rich and Birchall the main query.

Bottom 4:

Adelaide - probably a bit harsh but I have concerns on how their off-field + recruiting situation is. Sure there are young promising names there in Thilthorpe, Schoenberg, Sholl, Butts, Murray, Pedlar, Cook, McHenry and Berry but apart from Thilthorpe I'm not convinced any of them are going to be flat out elite, and I worry that letting go of so many veterans might see them pull a Melbourne of 10 years ago where they look to have heaps of promising young talent that just doesn't develop like it should. Not a lot of recent luck with first-round picks either.

Geelong - they've gone hard for the now but it's at the consequence of the future. All of Higgins, Selwood, Hawkins, Smith, Tuohy, Henderson, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Rohan and Duncan will likely either have retired or be bit part players. Of their youngsters the only ones I think are likely to get to a high level are Parfitt and Henry; the others feel like role players which will be difficult to manage or seem likely to walk due to lack of opportunities (Clark, Narkle, Constable). They still have a really good club culture and the best go-home factor in the competition which might see them maintaining relevance through recruiting, but as we've seen with Hawthorn there are limits to that approach.....

Collingwood - I think they'll start to be rising again at this point but there's a lot of serious problems in the medium-term that need to be fixed. Pendlebury, Howe, Roughead, Sidebottom and Elliot I think will all be gone by that point. Still have significant cap concerns which will inhibit their recruting potential, especially with all of Maynard, De Goey and Moore being RFA's. They've done well with recruiting kids and Nick Daicos could be a flat out freak but they'll still be quite young in 2024 and I'm not sure how many of their kids will be flat out elite.

West Coast - all of Kennedy, Hurn, Naitanui, Shuey, Redden, Sheppard and McGovern likely to be gone or just about to go by 2024. In addition, Yeo's body is potentially shot and Darling seems to have regressed in recent times too. Allen probably their only real top-tier under 23 player; and even in the 24-27 age bracket the talent feels skinny. Their kids will need time to come on. In serious, serious trouble.
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Good call with west coast
 
iBeng said:
Sure but to get bottom 4 we would have to be lower 8 next year, bottom 10 the next then completely out of any competitiveness in 2025...
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We went from a Grand Final to Bottom 4 in 3 years. Adelaide did the same. So did St Kilda back in 2010-13. Your mob finished Bottom 4 just two years after a Grand Final (and 3 after the 3-peat). Melbourne went from a Prelim -> Bottom 2 -> Premiers in the space of three years. Hawthorn went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in two years. So did the Doggies back in 2010-12. Freo went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in one season....

It's way more common than what you're implying. If memory serves me correctly the only clubs that haven't gone from Top 4 to Bottom 4 within 3 years in the last 20 years are Essendon, Geelong and Gold Coast.
 
Chaisa said:
We went from a Grand Final to Bottom 4 in 3 years. Adelaide did the same. So did St Kilda back in 2010-13. Your mob finished Bottom 4 just two years after a Grand Final (and 3 after the 3-peat). Melbourne went from a Prelim -> Bottom 2 -> Premiers in the space of three years. Hawthorn went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in two years. So did the Doggies back in 2010-12. Freo went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in one season....

It's way more common than what you're implying. If memory serves me correctly the only clubs that haven't gone from Top 4 to Bottom 4 within 3 years in the last 20 years are Essendon, Geelong and Gold Coast.
Click to expand...
Essendon worked it out. Don’t finish top 4 so you avoid crashing to the bottom 4 😎
 

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Chaisa said:
We went from a Grand Final to Bottom 4 in 3 years. Adelaide did the same. So did St Kilda back in 2010-13. Your mob finished Bottom 4 just two years after a Grand Final (and 3 after the 3-peat). Melbourne went from a Prelim -> Bottom 2 -> Premiers in the space of three years. Hawthorn went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in two years. So did the Doggies back in 2010-12. Freo went from Top 4 to Bottom 4 in one season....

It's way more common than what you're implying. If memory serves me correctly the only clubs that haven't gone from Top 4 to Bottom 4 within 3 years in the last 20 years are Essendon, Geelong and Gold Coast.
Click to expand...
Still bitter about freos 2016 AFL season going 0-10 and 4-18.

So glad that it was a fluke as Freo bounced back in 2017 and 2018 with 8 wins each
 
Geelong's last year finishing bottom-4 was 1986. It ain't going to happen.

But clubs can rise and fall quickly in this era, as highlighted with the speed St.Kilda and Freo fell away after their Lyon coached peaks, and Port rose from abominable in 2011 to Semi, then Preliminary Finalists within 2-3 seasons. West Coast went from Premiers to insipid inside 4 seasons. And the Dees have been a side that since the 90's have gone from chumps to finalists even in alternate seasons. So it's hard to predict, even North may well rise up beyond their lowly status within 3 years to be contenders for Finals.
 
Fat Nyfe said:
Top 4
Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
North Melbourne

Bottom 4
St Kilda
West Coast
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Click to expand...
Seems about right. North probably another 1-2 years at least on-top of the next 3 though. Rekon we will tread water next year before being at least a top 8 calibre side the year after.
 
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