Recommitted Brad Crouch [RFA 2020]

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AFL Website compares him to Lachie Neale, and values him at around pick 15+20.

Brad Crouch (Adelaide to Gold Coast)
The prolific ball winner is potentially on his way to Queensland, where he would become a first-tier onballer at his new club. It's very similar to the situation involving Lachie Neale last year. The trade taking Neale to Brisbane was quite complicated. The Lions gave up picks No.6, No.19 and No.55 to snare Neale, while also getting back pick No.30. However, the value came in the dual top-20 picks. The Suns have draft selections to burn thanks to the generous assistance package delivered to them by the AFL on Monday. While picks No.1 and No.2 are off the table, could they entice the Crows to deal Crouch with picks No.15 and No.20? More might need to be added to ensure any potential trade gets over the line.
 

DrLucienSanchez

Debutant
Jul 26, 2012
66
186
AFL Club
GWS
1/2/Lukosius for the 2 Crouch brothers, Greenwood, 4 and 23.

Would you do it, and if you were Adelaide, what becomes a suitable offer for Grundy as a pre-agent, considering their lack of picks and now you've gutted your midfield, would you take a punt on Grundy a year early than necessary?
 
Jan 14, 2012
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The River Murray
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1/2/Lukosius for the 2 Crouch brothers, Greenwood, 4 and 23.

Would you do it, and if you were Adelaide, what becomes a suitable offer for Grundy as a pre-agent, considering their lack of picks and now you've gutted your midfield, would you take a punt on Grundy a year early than necessary?
Of course the Crows would do it

No way in the world would GC do it though.
 

DrLucienSanchez

Debutant
Jul 26, 2012
66
186
AFL Club
GWS
If you thought you had a chance of Lukosius staying, it'd be a definite no.

If he's two and done, I reckon they'd panic trade knowing there's probably significantly less on offer next year.
 

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ADL9798

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 18, 2009
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Survival curve of every non-current player drafted from 1996 to 2016. Worth a quick read.

45% of top 10 picks, and over 70% of players taken with picks 10-20, don’t make it past 100 games. It’d be a brave man who bets against both Crouch boys hitting 150 games. Using this as the benchmark, the odds of success for a given draftee drop again.

This should be (although going by this thread, frequently isn’t) considered when assessing the relative value of draft picks or recent draftees against established players.
 
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Survival curve of every non-current player drafted from 1996 to 2016. Worth a quick read.

45% of top 10 picks, and over 70% of players taken with picks 10-20, don’t make it past 100 games. It’d be a brave man who bets against both Crouch boys hitting 150 games. Using this as the benchmark, the odds of success for a given draftee drop again.

This should be (although going by this thread, frequently isn’t) considered when assessing the relative value of draft picks or recent draftees against established players.
I'm going to pinch this and add it to the resources thread. I'll credit you :)

 

Cleric

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 14, 2011
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Trade Radio keeps on giving.

Also, don't know if it has been discussed on here.

But if Adelaide want to bring Grundy in as a FA next year, that completely voids their compensation pick and they could potentially lose Crouch for nothing if he decides to up and leave.

A lot of 'ifs' in that scenario, but interesting none the less.
Except Adelaide know Grundy isn't leaving Collingwood. But if that helps you sleep at night.
 

gcsunsfc

Cancelled
Oct 24, 2012
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If you thought you had a chance of Lukosius staying, it'd be a definite no.

If he's two and done, I reckon they'd panic trade knowing there's probably significantly less on offer next year.
We’ve literally said he’s off the table from the CEO and the list manager. Not sure how much more categoric you can get.
We are not trading jack lukosius this year.
 
Sep 28, 2011
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Except Adelaide know Grundy isn't leaving Collingwood. But if that helps you sleep at night.
It doesn't? I was just throwing up an interesting scenario, I know some of the Crows people on here have been interested in Grundy. I don't think he ends up on the GC anyway.

Don't have to take it as an attack.
 

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