For a bloke currently in the VFL not getting a game and who has played 12 games since being drafted in 2015 Collingwood fans on record saying a first rounder. I think your prediction is a lot more realistic.
Pies (Crows) want more than other teams would be prepared to give up.
Top 20 picks are reserved for genuinely good, top end talented players. Sier, as good as he was at the back end of 2018 is a good foot soldier. Nothing more, nothing less. If he proves me wrong, well done.