Tulip
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Preuss is actually really good. Something around 30 would get it done.
Traded Braydon Preuss [Traded to GWS for Pick #31]
- Thread starter King Kunta
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Geelong surely have to do something about the ruck position this year. We have a pick around 30. I see the knocks on Preuss but he does appear reasonably durable and might be the best ruck option that is actually available. We have Blitz who can take D50 ruck contests and Hawkins in the F50 so the big lug could just patrol between the arcs which would minimise the running he would have to do.
I said it in the 2MP thread and the same applies here
Preuss isn't landing Melbourne a 2nd rounder on his own. Maybe if he gets packaged up for other pieces he could be turned into something of value, but Preuss isn't going for a pick in the 30's on his own.
He'll end up going for less than or roughly the same as whatever Wright goes for. I'm thinking 45-55. Both are contracted for another 2 years. However, Wright is younger, can play in the ruck as well as up forward and has a much better record than Preuss.
For reference, here are some other KPP players in recent trades.
Preuss isn't landing Melbourne a 2nd rounder on his own. Maybe if he gets packaged up for other pieces he could be turned into something of value, but Preuss isn't going for a pick in the 30's on his own.
He'll end up going for less than or roughly the same as whatever Wright goes for. I'm thinking 45-55. Both are contracted for another 2 years. However, Wright is younger, can play in the ruck as well as up forward and has a much better record than Preuss.
Peter Wright of the Essendon Bombers Career AFL Stats
Peter Wright of Essendon Bombers career AFL statistics
www.footywire.com
Braydon Preuss of the GWS Giants Career AFL Stats
Braydon Preuss of GWS Giants career AFL statistics
www.footywire.com
For reference, here are some other KPP players in recent trades.
- Josh Bruce went for picks 32 and 51, he'd played 99 games for the Saints, and kicked 168 goals. Kicking 35 goals or more 4 times in the last 5 seasons
- Josh Schache was a 20 year old number 2 pick and was traded after 2 seasons for 25 and 40, he had 2 years to go on his contract.
- Patton went for a future 4th after 89 games and 130 goals and injurey concerns
- Frampton went for a future 4th
- Pittonet and 61 was exchanged for 54 and 63
- Phillips was a selection of pick swaps in the 60s and 70s
- Hickey, 61, and a future 4th for 39 and a future 4th
- Jordan Roughed for 75
- Nankervis went for #46
- Darcy Cameron and #61 went for #56
- Witts went to the Gold Coast for 44 and 62
- Vardy went to West Coast for 72
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Agree. Preuss won't get a pick before 50 IMO.
I'd be all over Wright for a pick in the 30s, I think that's good value.
gawndog37
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I agree that we aren't going to get full value for him, the deal will probably be similar to Witts and I expect Preuss' output to similar. If you look at the games when Preuss has played as the number 1 ruck in the last 2 years for us, over those 3 games he averaged: 33 hitouts, 11.33 disposals, and 3.33 marks. Even though I think he's worth more and he'll prove it, GWS pick 39 is about right, maybe a depth player like a zac langdon or adam kennedy could be involved in a deal as well. Someone spoken about on the dees board is Himmelberg if Cameron resigns can the Giants fit those 4 tall forwards into the same forward line?
The only problem with that is that Witts had a larger body of work for recruiters to draw on than Preuss. Witts was also a year younger.
Witts had played 40 games in 4 seasons and had just turned 24 at the time he was traded
Preuss has only played 18 games across 2 clubs in 6 seasons and is 25 years old.
In that comparison, Witts wins pretty easily.
Pick 39 plus a player from GWS would be very unlikely considering Witts went for 44 and 62. You'd need to throw a sweetener in just to get pick 39.
I don't think Preuss will be done until Wright is done, because I think Wright will set the price for all the talls on offer this year.
Guy Threepwood
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Was rumoured to be a 4 year deal at about $400k. No idea if the deal was front or back loaded. I assume the bulk of the money freed up by Williams and Jacob's coming off the books will go towards trying to retain Cameron, but I don't think Preuss' contract would increase much if at all.
Like Witts, Preuss has been held back by playing behind excellent ruckmen. Also like Witts, when given an opportunity to play he has been very good. Being as objective as I can, of the examples you have provided I think his value falls somewhere between Witts and Nankervis which puts his price somewhere on the low to mid 40's. GWS's pick 39 is around the mark and them offering it up isn't as crazy as you make it seem.
Guy Threepwood
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Our clubs do seem to have a good trading history. If you guys needed that and were prepared to pay slight overs, I imagine that could work.
I wouldn't be shocked to see us get something decent, seems to be a demand for him.
Not sure about that. I hope you’re right but history not on our side. FWIW I believe if he gets a chance to be number one ruck somewhere he’ll go very well. Giants second rounder could be what we get and maybe another pick or fringe player. I would hope for more but can’t see it.
Marc_Remillard
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If there's decent offers from other Vic clubs then would he want to move interstate?
Not only is 44 and 62 close in value to pick 39, this is also the least valuable draft in years, both due to the talent available and how little recruiters have been able to watch them play. 39 is probably slight unders.
I like how you only quote a part of my reply, the full quote, that justified Witts' higher price than Preuss, was as follows.
The only problem with that is that Witts had a larger body of work for recruiters to draw on than Preuss. Witts was also a year younger.
Witts had played 40 games in 4 seasons and had just turned 24 at the time he was traded
Preuss has only played 18 games across 2 clubs in 6 seasons and is 25 years old.
In that comparison, Witts wins pretty easily.
Pick 39 plus a player from GWS would be very unlikely considering Witts went for 44 and 62. You'd need to throw a sweetener in just to get pick 39.
I don't think Preuss will be done until Wright is done, because I think Wright will set the price for all the talls on offer this year.
You're ignoring the parts that are inconvenient to your argument. If you want, you could also go back to my previous post comparing Wright and Preuss, with their stats, to get a better idea of the argument that I'm making, or you could just continue to cherrypick whatever part of my posts suit you.
I'll cherrypick, thanks, because it's what you're doing too. There are many other factors that go into the price paid, like the availability of alternatives, the relative strength of the draft, the quality of the games rather than just the quantity, and the desperation of the buying club to get a player. You can talk until the cows come home about quantity of games, but there's a lot you're ignoring.
You mean all those other parts that I covered in my previous post? Don't misrepresent my arguments to suit yourself. Instead, how about you put in the effort to justify your position.
No you didn't. Don't misrepresent your own arguments to suit yourself.
CatToTheFuture
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I reckon you'll find it's just GWS for a pick you probably wouldn't even use
00Stinger
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The thing you are not taking into account is the large number of high academy players this year.
So a late second rounder will be around the 45-48 mark not 36
No I'm taking that into account, it's just a smaller factor when compared to other things that need to be considered. The problems that Melbourne have this trade period are that the history of trading KPP's doesn't support the idea that a pick will be in the 30's, looking at the 3 clubs supposedly interested in him, 2 out of the 3 aren't in a position to start a bidding war. So his price won't be pushed up that much higher.
On top of that, we're still a month away from the trade period even starting, and there are other players that are being talked about as available. Peter Wright, Callum Coleman-Jones, etc. More will hit the market the closer we get to trade period, driving Preuss' price even further down. We still don't know what DFA's will be available either, which could also significantly lower Preuss' value on the market.
GWS has the draft capital and without a doubt they can get into a bidding war. They also have two young rucks and if push comes to shove can fall back on them, a risky ploy but something they can use in any negotiations. Especially as their later picks will also be valuable to teams looking to get draft capital to cover their own academy/father-son players so can shop them around to get a better trade that might suit GWS better.
Sydney doesn't have the draft capital to push up the price. They have 3, 22, then 54 and 56. The first two picks won't be available. 54 and 56 aren't high enough to push GWS to raise their offer.
Geelong has multiple irons in the fire, Preuss might be a good fit for them, but they're not going to prioritise him over somebody like Jeremy Cameron.
There's a reason I listed 5 years worth of comparable trades in this post, they provide reference points for players in his position. I also list his main rival in this trade period so far, Peter Wright, and he doesn't compare as well, Wright is younger, has more exposed form, and can go into the forward line a lot more successfully than Preuss. https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/braydon-preuss-ooc-2022.1245393/post-67206202
Every trade period has players like Preuss hit the market, and they don't hit the prices that people are putting up in this thread. As listed here comparing him to Witts- https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/braydon-preuss-ooc-2022.1245393/post-67207206
Witts was younger, and had more than double the exposed form of Preuss, which is why I doubt Preuss will net a trade price higher than Witts.
Scratchy05
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Id say Preuss is a better player than Hickey so that means a 3rd round for him I'd assume.
