Breakdown of home ground advantage in AFL footy

[kranky al]

I remember Collingwood not putting Buckley on the plane against Port in the 02 finals series...didn’t even need him to beat minor premier Port at Footy Park!

Yeah that doesnt count

It was port

 

[Big_Tony]

Has it got that melbourne slipperiness?

Spins me out when i go to melbs in winter how grass is more like algae on a river rock - tried to kick a footy after a game at geelong in kardinia and ended up arse up

Yep, a fair description! Granted, the players have studded boots which will give more grip, but can definitely see why grounds like Subiaco are described as "fast decks" by comparison. All these factors would contribute to home ground advantage I rekon... the more familiar the conditions the better.

 

[hoianbulldog]

Also worth mentioning that Final Siren pointed out nominal home sides tend to win even when they play a fellow tenant of the same ground (Edit: turns out Final Siren's posts never said this explicitly, but rather the home team on the fuxture, over many years, is a better tip than the game's actual location).

Some data from all Derby and showdowns would be interesting. Enough of a sample size youd think.

 

[HTT]

Are professional AFL players really affected by the loudness of the cheers they get relative to the cheers for the oppo?

On Bigfooty you sometimes read that when a few borderline calls go the way of the home side, it makes the away side to drop their heads and causes a bigger effect than what you'd think a couple of frees might have.

I reckon that's the biggest part of HGA TBH. You can't afford to play catch up footy when the crowd's on top.

 

[kranky al]

I reckon that's the biggest part of HGA TBH. You can't afford to play catch up footy when the crowd's on top.

Prob for vic teams - interstate teams get hostile crowds every second week so we are more immune to it

 

[Kwality]

Richmond / collingwood / etc

could quite literally forfeit difficult interstate games. Just write them off to save their players the wear and tear and still finish top 4

I remember collingwood not putting buckley on the plane against wc around the 2005/6 era. Just rested him.

Heard Rance Jnr on Melbourne radio today & he didn't think not winning on the road was a worry, 9-3 so not a problem, clearly he doesn't rate travel as problematic for the Tiges - maybe he should discuss it with his Dad sometime, how'd Murray find it at the Dogs/Eagles?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Heard Rance Jnr on Melbourne radio today & he didn't think not winning on the road was a worry, 9-3 so not a problem, clearly he doesn't rate travel as problematic for the Tiges - maybe he should discuss it with his Dad sometime, how'd Murray find it at the Dogs/Eagles?

How does Rance arrive that conclusion? Surely hed be worried how lame ar$ed they are away from MCG

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Selling home games to one ground on a regular basis may have teething problems in the beginning but the Dogs, Hawks and Roos have given themselves a strong home ground advantage by doing so.

Depends who they’re playing. If it’s another Vic side then yeah, they’re moving it from a neutral venue to one where they’re probably more comfortable than the opposition.

If they’re playing an interstate side though, it’s really just moving from one home venue to another.

 

[kranky al]

How does Rance arrive that conclusion? Surely hed be worried how lame ar$ed they are away from MCG

Why - despite coming 3rd they never left the mcg last finals.

 

[Smoky]

That free kick just on half time for Port....

The definition of this thread.

 

[kranky al]

Depends who they’re playing. If it’s another Vic side then yeah, they’re moving it from a neutral venue to one where they’re probably more comfortable than the opposition.

If they’re playing an interstate side though, it’s really just moving from one home venue to another.

We hate playing in tassie

 

[PerthBoy86]

Some data from all Derby and showdowns would be interesting. Enough of a sample size youd think.

Doubt it would say much. The form of each respective side usually dictates the result. Like we won the first 9, then the Dockers won 7 straight during our dark days, and we've won the last 5 or so as we've been a better overall team.

 

[sobrave]

Yeah that doesnt count

It was port

The port that finished 1st twice, won the flag 2 years later and was the only side to consistently trouble Brisbane 01-04?

Yeh good call m8

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Why - despite coming 3rd they never left the mcg last finals.

We finished 4th in 2016 and got both finals within 1k of our training facilities. There's luck involved. In a similar situation this year they could be going to Perth, Adelaide or Sydney.

 

[PowerForGood]

That free kick just on half time for Port....

The definition of this thread.

Surely this thread (and this topic) exists only because so Vics can take pot shots at a non vic clubs.

Because Peter Schwab can point at a team that has a significantly skewed free kick count over 72 games at one venue, but ignores pointing out a team that has a significantly skewed free kick count over a 76 game period (and counting).
14% to be accurate.

But its not at one ground. So can't just be "crowd affirmation" or whatever that "theory" was from a former head of umpiring of the AFL no less.

But its not a non-Vic team. So can't be reported by the AFL "media" as a conspiracy can it?

But its not even a currently successful team. So cant be because they've been so successful these last 3 1/2 seasons?

But it is a "Big 4" Vic team. So shhhhhhh... everyone. Move on, nothing to see here. *nudge nudge wink wink say no more*

Eddie McGuire might get upset.

 

[HTT]

What are the stats re: home team winning in Lakers/Clippers NBA games? Would’ve thought the only thing that changes is the crowd.

 

[kranky al]

The port that finished 1st twice, won the flag 2 years later and was the only side to consistently trouble Brisbane 01-04?

Yeh good call m8

The port that should have won more

The port that was so bad the fans didnt rock up for finals games

 

[hoianbulldog]

Doubt it would say much. The form of each respective side usually dictates the result. Like we won the first 9, then the Dockers won 7 straight during our dark days, and we've won the last 5 or so as we've been a better overall team.

That says a lot actually relative to the discussion which is that the home team has a higher win ratio even when playing co tenants. Your numbers refute that.

 

[hoianbulldog]

The port that finished 1st twice, won the flag 2 years later and was the only side to consistently trouble Brisbane 01-04?

Yeh good call m8

People forget how good Port were through that period.

 

[Smoky]

Surely this thread (and this topic) exists only because so Vics can take pot shots at a non vic clubs.

Because Peter Schwab can point at a team that has a significantly skewed free kick count over 72 games at one venue, but ignores pointing out a team that has a significantly skewed free kick count over a 76 game period (and counting).
14% to be accurate.

But its not at one ground. So can't just be "crowd affirmation" or whatever that "theory" was from a former head of umpiring of the AFL no less.

But its not a non-Vic team. So can't be reported by the AFL "media" as a conspiracy can it?

But its not even a currently successful team. So cant be because they've been so successful these last 3 1/2 seasons?

But it is a "Big 4" Vic team. So shhhhhhh... everyone. Move on, nothing to see here. *nudge nudge wink wink say no more*

Eddie McGuire might get upset.

Buddy gets 2 of the softest frees ever seen in front of goal in the last 5 min in the 3rd.

Once again... definition of the thread.

 

[Smoky]

Wow... these frees are embarrassing.

 

[The King!]

Wow... these frees are embarrassing.

Speaking of embarrassing....

 

[bluebob1]

Doubt it would say much. The form of each respective side usually dictates the result. Like we won the first 9, then the Dockers won 7 straight during our dark days, and we've won the last 5 or so as we've been a better overall team.

the showdowns are 26 vs 18 home team so i would say statiscally significant given the time period and the generally relatively even record

 

[PerthBoy86]

the showdowns are 26 vs 18 home team so i would say statiscally significant given the time period and the generally relatively even record

Port were the junior SA side in the AFL but had Adelaide's measure, even winning the first showdown. The opposite is the case in the Derby. It may have some influence, but overall compared to form at the time it hasn't been a real factor. Derby crowds are always gonna be relatively equal anyway, maybe 60/40 home team, with more Eagles overall (so say 62% and 44% Eagles).

 

[simmo97]

the showdowns are 26 vs 18 home team so i would say statiscally significant given the time period and the generally relatively even record

both teams have the same record home and away.

Home Showdowns 13-9
Away Showdowns 9-13