Analysis Breaking down the Tim Kelly trade.

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Dark Sharks

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Given we've got six years of Sexy Tim strutting his stuff in the wings, i figure a separate thread is needed to unpack the mans career in Blue and Gold :westcoast:



It was fairly universal on here that for what we paid (Greatest points value trade in AFL history, equivalent of pick 1) that the acquisition of Kelly would need to deliver a flag for it to judged a success, and have the ballsy gamble of selling the farm to obtain him pay off.


Now that the picks are basically finalized, feel free to jump in here someone if i'm wrong, it looks like the total trade off was.


Kelly, 52 and 52 (2020 pick currently)

For

Pick 13, 14, 24 & 37

(With hopefully that pick 13 being pushed as far back as possible on draft night due to academy and F/S bids this year)



Here's a good statistical breakdown article on the trade, and what it immediately did to our premiership chances at the time



1601936907849.png




Hopefully this thread doesn't turn into a basket case where nuffs come in to vent about him whenever he plays a sh*t game, but rather unpacking each individual season as a whole on it's completion. Players form dips and picks up over the course of a whole year, plus no doubt clutch performances in finals change peoples perspectives even further. There's no need for everyone to ride the rollercoaster week in week out after a win/loss.




Fans were in for the rudest of rude shocks when reality dawned on them in round 2, that just because we have Tim Kelly doesn't instantly mean our midfield, or team in general, is unstoppable after it was annihilated by a hungrier Gold Coast outfit at for the season resumption in round 2. Gold Coast finished 14th on the ladder.



Given this year was A sh*t show and a total write off with reduced minutes, it's hard to compare Kelly's 2020 statistically to his past 2 seasons in the hoops.

2020 Averages : 20 disposals, 8.8 contested, 4.2 tackles, 4.1 clearances, 4.1 inside 50's, 4.1 score involvements, 3.4 clangers, 4.8 turnovers and 364 metres gained.

These are naturally down across the board, with his most telling drop off being his scoreboard impact. He went from being a goal a game player to kicking 5 for the year at an average of 0.3 a game. Disappointing, considering a adding goal kicking midfielder was one of the biggest things fans would've been bullish about going into the season.




His best game in the wings came in the now famous win against St Kilda in round 17. With our backs up against the wall, a fairly depleted side full of West Coast Youngsters, surprisingly rallied from 2 goals down halfway through the final quarter to run over the top of their opponents. Kelly, along with Naitanui took control of this game when it mattered securing us a vital 4 points and keeping the top 4 dream alive. Kelly's flying shot at goal between a couple saints players in the last quarter was the image we all had in mind when we sat in isolation for 2 months praying the footy would return so we could watch our new king.


1601936767527.png



It was Kelly's best outing by a considerable margin. The only game this season where he hit the 30 disposal mark, and finished with cool 180 ranking points.




Overall however, I'd say 2020 was his poorest season at the highest level. Would your average West Coast supporter expect more from an elite recruit? Probably.


I posted the comparison between grand final hero yet unheralded mid Sheed and Kelly before he was recruited, and statistically there wasn't a huge amount separating them.


i'll do the same again now for everyone to compare to Kelly's averages above, the theme seems to have continued.

Sheed 2020 : 19.8 disposals, 9.7 contested, 2.4 tackles, 5 clearances, 2.8 inside 50's, 3.6 score involvements, 4.4 turnovers, 1.2 one percenters and 265 metres gained.

Sheed had twice as many one percenters as Kelly did this year. Dom also kicked 3 extra goals whilst playing less games.



Considerations have to be made for the time it takes adjusting to a new team, in a new (albeit home) state. History suggests recruits take a fair bit of time to adjust when they join the side, with Jetta and Redden being the most recent example.

Supporters might be concerned with Kelly's inability to break a tag. Demonstrated in the elimination final where he was shutdown by Greenwood for his lowest disposal return (12) of the season, in the biggest game of the year. Not blessed with the stoppage explosiveness of Shuey and Yeo, or the endurance of Gaff, it's going to be interesting to see how a player of Kelly's attributes deals with tags in the future. A silver lining to his final's performance, was that he laid 8 tackles, which equaled his season high. The intent was there.



I think everyone is expecting him to continue to build on his first season, as he adjusts back to a normal life in his home state and finds his groove in this team.



Regardless, the tally stands as 1/6 at this point.


2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 = 🏆 ?
 

greatwhiteshark

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Probably tells us where our midfield actually sits in the overall scheme of things. Opposition clubs think Kelly can hurt them and are willing to let the others do what they want knowing they won’t get hurt by Redden, Sheed etc.
I was expecting Tim to compliment our midfield and I think he will long term, I did not expect him to dominate as others did because we play a vastly different game plan with vastly different personal than Geelong do.
He had an average year I guess but I expect him to be far more productive next year.

As for what we gave up for him, well I am a trade man not a draft man. Recruiting 18 year olds does little to enthuse me so I don’t see it as giving up a lot as others do, just lottery picks in my eyes.
 

JohnW

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He dealt with the tag well at geelong. SO i have no concerns.

His season was good, not great. Will get better with a more normal season this year.

Would do the trade again in a heart beat. Him and Yeo will be a nightmare for clubs moving forward.
 

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Dark Sharks

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He dealt with the tag well at geelong. SO i have no concerns.

When?

Kelly rarely got tagged at Geelong, and if he did he died completely. There's certainly no large sample size of him breaking tags because it didn't happen IMO.

Deboer destroyed him and kept him to 9 disposals in round 4, 2019. The lowest return of his career.


Greenwood kept him to the next lowest return of his career, on Saturday night.
 

squashface

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Whether it be the midfield mix or the chemistry between them, something just isn't right. It was telling that TK's best game for us came when he was the only real mid for us and was able to play as the main man. Whether they need to rotate some of these 'star' midfielders into the forward line or even out of the team or they need to properly work out how to make a game plan that compliments all our mids is up to Simmo and whoever we get as a mid coach.

Kelly, Shuey, Yeo, Sheed, Gaff, Redden

That's an elite midfield on paper imo but it didn't work. We played better when we had one of two of those guys out
 

Rowan18

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He had an average year, some good games, some poor games, plenty of solid games.

The Kelly trade was partly about maximising our chances of a flag now, but also to stop our midfield falling off a cliff when Shuey and Redden retire. Without him this year, we may very well have missed finals given the Yeo and Shuey injuries. We saw a bit of our young mids during this time and it's clear we might get 1 or 2 B graders but that the rest are trash. Kelly will provide some depth while we recruit and develop mids.
 

JohnW

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When?

Kelly rarely got tagged at Geelong, and if he did he died completely. There's certainly no large sample size of him breaking tags because it didn't happen IMO.

Deboer destroyed him and kept him to 9 disposals in round 4, 2019. The lowest return of his career.


Greenwood kept him to the next lowest return of his career, on Saturday night.
You dont think teams tagged AA TK who finished in the top handful of brownlow vote getters.

Now I can't give you a specific example. But I can't believe that his last season at Geelong he went untagged all season.
 

MIKE85

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I can already picture this thread being bumped with a picture of him holding the cup in 2 years time (we don’t win in odd years, so 2022 it is)
 

Dark Sharks

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You dont think teams tagged AA TK who finished in the top handful of brownlow vote getters.

Now I can't give you a specific example. But I can't believe that his last season at Geelong he went untagged all season.

I don't when he's behind Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett in the pecking order, ergo why he was free'd up to finish so high in the Brownlow.

He certainly wasn't the 2nd best player in the AFL in 2019. Others were tagged freeing him up :shrug:
 

JohnW

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I don't when he's behind Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett in the pecking order, ergo why he was free'd up to finish so high in the Brownlow.

He certainly wasn't the 2nd best player in the AFL in 2019. Others were tagged freeing him up :shrug:
Potentially. I would have ranked him 2nd behind danger but thats me.

I am not going back over the games to see if he was or wasn't tagged. I suspect you aren't either. Meaning without proof of the specific games and match ups I am unable to answer your questions "did he" in relation to me saying he managed things while at geelong.

I will still back him in.
 

Lynch takes a mark

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Internally I'm sure they have some stats that we don't get, or at least don't share the weighting of team importance - field position, pressure etc

Kelly is a gun but part of a midfield, wing and HB/HF flanks that haven't fired for 2 seasons now. The mix and game style will adjust but Kelly is definitely not a weak link
 

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Carbine Chaos

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Have said it before that Kelly is a capable forward and it beggars belief that, with the small forward issues we had this year, that Simpson never even tried to rotate Kelly (and Shuey too) through there.

Kicked barely any goals this year compared to last. Talk about underutilising our assets this year (see: Jetta).
 

Pavlovs Cat

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Potentially. I would have ranked him 2nd behind danger but thats me.

I am not going back over the games to see if he was or wasn't tagged. I suspect you aren't either. Meaning without proof of the specific games and match ups I am unable to answer your questions "did he" in relation to me saying he managed things while at geelong.

I will still back him in.
Apologies from a Cat invader. Second behind Danger is dead right. Selwood got sent out to the wing last year and Ablett spent a lot of time up forward. When tagged Telly didn't do quite so well but plenty of very good players can't beat a tag. If someone is tagging Telly another West Coast mid is freed up. When Shuey pulls the pin that's when you will see the best of Tim Kelly. Guy can seriously play but he didn't want to play for us. We did well with the picks but going forward it will be a win win as Tim will have a fine career for the Eagles.
 

RookiePick

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Kelly struggled with the tag on Saturday but let's be honest - Shuey and Reddog both had a nightmare. It's the risk of taking in underdone players but I should expect in the absence of injury that Shuey and Redden would have been far more effective. That might have eased the pressure on Tim or at least seen us exploit other opportunities better.

I'm with Simmo on this one - TK is a 5-6 year player for us. Let's judge him at the end of it.
 

MerryHell

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This year must have been extremely difficult for TK with his family situation and hub life. Imagine being holed up in a hotel room with 3 little kids, and dealing with the fixture uncertainties and unknowns. Impossible to be mentally at the top of his game week in, week out.
 

salo

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I’m bit annoyed Simmo didn’t send any of these guys forward this season. Wouldn’t mind seeing Shuey play more forward from next season onwards.
I reckon Redden is another one who plays better when Shuey is out. I almost feel dirty saying it but Shuey is the one I want moved forward for his last couple of years, with bursts through the middle.
 

THE A5

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I reckon Redden is another one who plays better when Shuey is out. I almost feel dirty saying it but Shuey is the one I want moved forward for his last couple of years, with bursts through the middle.
yeah it’s a balancing act. As long as it improves the team and not just a couple individuals, it should be done.
 

DickDunn

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Good balanced assessment. I rate it as a disappointing season overall but think the circumstances probably didn't help - shorter quarters, compressed fixture and reduced opportunities to train and improve chemistry. Clearly things weren't really clicking for TK a lot of the time. Weirdly with the Saints game, it looked like he was playing much more on instinct than other games, which suggests to me that he was overthinking things and needed to get out of his own head.

Really the Saints game is the only one where he resembled his 2019 self who was easily in the top handful of players that year
 

Kwality

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I reckon Redden is another one who plays better when Shuey is out. I almost feel dirty saying it but Shuey is the one I want moved forward for his last couple of years, with bursts through the middle.
Good thing you werent in Simmos ear in the 2018 GF.
 

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