Analysis Breaking down the Tim Kelly trade.

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Perhaps he should of won the god damn ball and forced greenwood to be moved onto him.

I really think Shuey was way below expectation in the game. Perhaps he was trying to do too much team stuff which took away from his own game. Which as a net result hurt us bad. I also dont like the complaining that I see from him and Gov.
Yeah, Shuey was the problem. Just like in 2018 GF when Yeo got tagged, shuey ran riot, they switched the tag to Shuey at half time and then Yeo got back into the game. Bucks made the right call assuming Shuey would be underdone.
 
Yeah, Shuey was the problem. Just like in 2018 GF when Yeo got tagged, shuey ran riot, they switched the tag to Shuey at half time and then Yeo got back into the game. Bucks made the right call assuming Shuey would be underdone.
I was expecting that Kelly would free up Shuey/Yeo and vice versa which would mean they would have a huge impact on the year. That didn't happen which was a disappointment. Hopefully Kelly can integrate more into the midfield freeing up Yeo et al to do some real damage next year.
 
Yeah, Shuey was the problem. Just like in 2018 GF when Yeo got tagged, shuey ran riot, they switched the tag to Shuey at half time and then Yeo got back into the game. Bucks made the right call assuming Shuey would be underdone.
I read where Shuey stated that in the first half he felt like his lungs were going to explode and it wasn't until the 3rd quarter that he found his second wind - this is what happens unfortunately taking underdone players recovering from injury into a final but I guess there was no alternative with Yeo being out. Probably he would have got away with that in a normal home & away match but not in a final due to the increase in tempo?
 

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You guys are going off the draft value index.

Everybody knows that the value of draft picks aren't scaled to their points index.

We gave up 13, 14, 24, 31.

Not a single top 10 pick.

In 2019 Kelly was easily worth the same as Treloar, Shiel, Beams in 2014. Clubs all gave up 2 top 10 picks for those players.

Kelly was and is worth 2 top 10 picks. We didn't have them.

We didn't have a single top ten pick. We could have either tried to package 14/24/31 in to the top 10 and handed that over + our future first, or just hand over the picks to Geelong so they can try and get a top 10 pick out of it.
Those other teams all got a 2nd rounder back which doesn't seem much but it is . Its another decent quality youngster on our list .

Pick 13 + 14 + 31 was easily enough .
We got hosed at the trade table and suffered from it . We didn't need to give up that Sydney pick and would have got us rivers or sharpe
 
So is this thread only going to get bumped every year we don't win a flag?

I'd just like to point out that Yeo and Shuey are going to miss the majority of 2021, and without Kelly we wouldn't be top 8 right now, let alone be in touch to finish top 4.

Also goes to show how having time in a system and being able to develop chemistry can help a player perform better. Going off rating points from the AFL and Champion data (Not an ideal system but a good indicator) 3 of Kelly's best 5 games for the eagles have been his last 3 game (Other two are Saints and Pies games last year).

Regarding the actual trade itself, I always view who wins a trade based on if they win flags after the trade. Given what Geelong used our picks for (To get Cameron) if neither team wins a flag I think we may be slightly better off.
 
So who were the players picked with the picks we gave away? I was extremely confused when I spent 5 minutes trying to work it out on wikipedia.
So we gave up the picks 14 and 24 in the 2019 draft to Geelong, gave up pick 33 to Essendon and gave up our 1st in 2020 to Geelong.

We got back Tim Kelly, pick 52 from Essendon and a 2020 3rd from Geelong.

Pick 14 got pushed back to pick 16 which Geelong used on Cooper Stevens.

Pick 24 got pushed back to pick 27 which Geelong used to trade with Gold Coast for Pick 24 and got Gold Coast's mid first round priority pick in 2020. This seems like an absolute fleecing, but I think one of the conditions of the priority pick was that it needs to be traded. Anyways seems like Geelong got away with robbery. Gold Coast used that pick on Jeremy Sharp

Pick 33 got pushed back to pick 38 which Essendon used on Nick Bryan

Pick 52 got pushed back to pick 58 which was traded to Brisbane along with a pick that didn't get used for pick 49 which the Eagles used to select Callum Jamieson. Funnily enough pick 58 then got traded to Essendon who traded it back to us and we picked up Ben Johnson.

Geelong then used our first round pick in 2020 (15 to 18) along with the priority pick they got from the Gold Coast trade (13 to 15) and their own first round pick (20 to 25) to get Jeremy Cameron. They also got both GWS and Essendon's 2021 2nd rounders in that trade

We used Geelong's third round pick in 2020 either to get Zac Langdon or as part of the Tom Hickey trade.

In an attempt to summarise
Eagles get: Tim Kelly, Callum Jamieson, Ben Johnson, Zac Langdon
Geelong get: Cooper Stephens, Jeremy Cameron and two 2021 second rounders
 
So we gave up the picks 14 and 24 in the 2019 draft to Geelong, gave up pick 33 to Essendon and gave up our 1st in 2020 to Geelong.

We got back Tim Kelly, pick 52 from Essendon and a 2020 3rd from Geelong.

Pick 14 got pushed back to pick 16 which Geelong used on Cooper Stevens.

Pick 24 got pushed back to pick 27 which Geelong used to trade with Gold Coast for Pick 24 and got Gold Coast's mid first round priority pick in 2020. This seems like an absolute fleecing, but I think one of the conditions of the priority pick was that it needs to be traded. Anyways seems like Geelong got away with robbery. Gold Coast used that pick on Jeremy Sharp

Pick 33 got pushed back to pick 38 which Essendon used on Nick Bryan

Pick 52 got pushed back to pick 58 which was traded to Brisbane along with a pick that didn't get used for pick 49 which the Eagles used to select Callum Jamieson. Funnily enough pick 58 then got traded to Essendon who traded it back to us and we picked up Ben Johnson.

Geelong then used our first round pick in 2020 (15 to 18) along with the priority pick they got from the Gold Coast trade (13 to 15) and their own first round pick (20 to 25) to get Jeremy Cameron. They also got both GWS and Essendon's 2021 2nd rounders in that trade

We used Geelong's third round pick in 2020 either to get Zac Langdon or as part of the Tom Hickey trade.

In an attempt to summarise
Eagles get: Tim Kelly, Callum Jamieson, Ben Johnson, Zac Langdon
Geelong get: Cooper Stephens, Jeremy Cameron and two 2021 second rounders
That’s a very good effort. I’m not surprised given the Vaccination gave you autism and your attention to detail is through the roof.
 
So we gave up the picks 14 and 24 in the 2019 draft to Geelong, gave up pick 33 to Essendon and gave up our 1st in 2020 to Geelong.

We got back Tim Kelly, pick 52 from Essendon and a 2020 3rd from Geelong.

Pick 14 got pushed back to pick 16 which Geelong used on Cooper Stevens.

Pick 24 got pushed back to pick 27 which Geelong used to trade with Gold Coast for Pick 24 and got Gold Coast's mid first round priority pick in 2020. This seems like an absolute fleecing, but I think one of the conditions of the priority pick was that it needs to be traded. Anyways seems like Geelong got away with robbery. Gold Coast used that pick on Jeremy Sharp

Pick 33 got pushed back to pick 38 which Essendon used on Nick Bryan

Pick 52 got pushed back to pick 58 which was traded to Brisbane along with a pick that didn't get used for pick 49 which the Eagles used to select Callum Jamieson. Funnily enough pick 58 then got traded to Essendon who traded it back to us and we picked up Ben Johnson.

Geelong then used our first round pick in 2020 (15 to 18) along with the priority pick they got from the Gold Coast trade (13 to 15) and their own first round pick (20 to 25) to get Jeremy Cameron. They also got both GWS and Essendon's 2021 2nd rounders in that trade

We used Geelong's third round pick in 2020 either to get Zac Langdon or as part of the Tom Hickey trade.

In an attempt to summarise
Eagles get: Tim Kelly, Callum Jamieson, Ben Johnson, Zac Langdon
Geelong get: Cooper Stephens, Jeremy Cameron and two 2021 second rounders
Thank you Rainman!

Basically it's Kelly for Cameron, the other bits and pieces seem a bit of a wash, unless they jag something with their second rounders.
 

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The Jeremy Cameron trade muddies the waters a bit. If Geelong don't have 3 first round picks in 2020 I reckon Cameron still gets there.

IMO Geelong just took what WC had at the time, and GWS took what Geelong had at the time. Going into the 2020 draft/trade period Geelong's plan would've been to get Cameron as a free agent then either use all 3 picks or trade one into 2021.

Either way Kelly and Cameron will both be 100 game players for their new clubs.
 
Depends how Devon Robertson turns up. We would have picked him up 100%?

He is becomes Brisbane captain and a good player than we bungled the trade bad.

He is what we need a big body mid who has leadership
 
Depends how Devon Robertson turns up. We would have picked him up 100%?

He is becomes Brisbane captain and a good player than we bungled the trade bad.

He is what we need a big body mid who has leadership
He looked good tonight
 
So we gave up the picks 14 and 24 in the 2019 draft to Geelong, gave up pick 33 to Essendon and gave up our 1st in 2020 to Geelong.

We got back Tim Kelly, pick 52 from Essendon and a 2020 3rd from Geelong.

Pick 14 got pushed back to pick 16 which Geelong used on Cooper Stevens.

Pick 24 got pushed back to pick 27 which Geelong used to trade with Gold Coast for Pick 24 and got Gold Coast's mid first round priority pick in 2020. This seems like an absolute fleecing, but I think one of the conditions of the priority pick was that it needs to be traded. Anyways seems like Geelong got away with robbery. Gold Coast used that pick on Jeremy Sharp

Pick 33 got pushed back to pick 38 which Essendon used on Nick Bryan

Pick 52 got pushed back to pick 58 which was traded to Brisbane along with a pick that didn't get used for pick 49 which the Eagles used to select Callum Jamieson. Funnily enough pick 58 then got traded to Essendon who traded it back to us and we picked up Ben Johnson.

Geelong then used our first round pick in 2020 (15 to 18) along with the priority pick they got from the Gold Coast trade (13 to 15) and their own first round pick (20 to 25) to get Jeremy Cameron. They also got both GWS and Essendon's 2021 2nd rounders in that trade

We used Geelong's third round pick in 2020 either to get Zac Langdon or as part of the Tom Hickey trade.

In an attempt to summarise
Eagles get: Tim Kelly, Callum Jamieson, Ben Johnson, Zac Langdon
Geelong get: Cooper Stephens, Jeremy Cameron and two 2021 second rounders
So Geelong win the trade and GWS lose the trade.
 
Trade was always going to look average early, I think.

Traded players always take some time to adjust to a new club. And that’s not taking into account a worldwide pandemic. It takes time to get a connection with your ruckman, to work out the nuances of your new teammates, running patterns etc etc. Perhaps he wasn’t as prepared for that mentally. To come in as the prize recruit you are by extension expected to drive high standards and perhaps he thought that would all just fall into place. Not altogether surprising given he was really only entering his 3rd year of AFL footy- I’m sure this last 3 years has been much of a whirlwind for Tim.

He’s really now starting to show that consistent Geelong form with some added bows to his string with his defensive pressure which has improved considerably since coming to the club. Given our midfield injuries this year I can’t bear to think how we would have gone this year without him.

So we got Kelly, Geelong turned that into Cameron. Given the respective list needs of the two clubs, I’m fairly sure both clubs will be happy with how that sits.
 
So Geelong win the trade and GWS lose the trade.

Geelong win because they used pick 24 in the draft, got 2 years of good footy out of Kelly from day 1, then traded him for two late firsts, a second and change.

GWS win because Cameron sign a free agency offer and instead of getting pick 13 they got 15, 18 and 25 with two future seconds going the other way.

WC win because they get a player they could've got for nothing years earlier for two late firsts, a second and change and went from missing the top 4 by one win to missing the top 4 by one win and losing an Elimination Final.
 
WC win because they get a player they could've got for nothing years earlier for two late firsts, a second and change and went from missing the top 4 by one win to missing the top 4 by one win and losing an Elimination Final.
The 2017 draft was the last draft where you couldn't trade draft picks on the night of the draft, essentially meaning we were locked in and not able to trade up to select who we want. The two picks we had before Kelly were Brander and Allen, both of whom were said to have fallen in that process. We probably take Kelly if either one of those two isn't there and I still think both of those picks can be good value.

So I wouldn't say we could've got Kelly for nothing as opportunity cost means that we wouldn't have one of Brander or Allen. In terms of picking Kelly Geelong simply beat us to the punch.

I like to imagine there is a separate universe where Kelly falls to us at 26, Ryan gets picked at 32 and we don't draft Ainsworth. Imagine a draft class of Brander, Allen, Kelly, Ryan and Petch
 
The 2017 draft was the last draft where you couldn't trade draft picks on the night of the draft, essentially meaning we were locked in and not able to trade up to select who we want. The two picks we had before Kelly were Brander and Allen, both of whom were said to have fallen in that process. We probably take Kelly if either one of those two isn't there and I still think both of those picks can be good value.

So I wouldn't say we could've got Kelly for nothing as opportunity cost means that we wouldn't have one of Brander or Allen. In terms of picking Kelly Geelong simply beat us to the punch.

I like to imagine there is a separate universe where Kelly falls to us at 26, Ryan gets picked at 32 and we don't draft Ainsworth. Imagine a draft class of Brander, Allen, Kelly, Ryan and Petch

Kelly lifted his output in 2017, but could've been rookie listed before that point.

Our 2017 draft was fantastic even without Kelly. Allen looks like a 10-15 year key forward. No way I'd trade him for Kelly and keep all the picks we sent out.

I'm of the opinion that players like Kelly should earn effective DFA status anyway. Once you have nominated for say 3 drafts and been overlooked, you should be able to sign with the club of your choosing. And each year you are in the draft counts for free agency. There aren't many players art 24/25 anyway, but do we expect them to uproot their lives then have limited freedom of movement until they are 33?
 

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