I'm looking at an optimist scenario in this post, but I believe we can play finals much earlier. Not saying this year. But I think we can win many more games than people think.
Firstly, we do know the full potential of the GWS recruits. Plowman, Sumner, Pickett & Marchbank have had injuries early in their career. They all seem to have had a good preseason. They have now been in the system for a few seasons. Phillips as a ruckman showed something last year & ruckman as we all know take longer.
This could be a possible line up for round 1:
Sumner Casboult Silvagni
Pickett Weitering Palmer
Cuningham Cripps Murphy
Docherty Rowe Thomas
Plowman Marchbank Simpson
Rucks: Kreuzer Gibbs E Curnow
Inter: Wright, Kerridge, Armfield, SPS, C Curnow
Inj
Byrne
Phillips
Sheehan? ( not sure which catergory he belongs)
Seasoned Replacements: A Silvagni, Smedts, Boekhorst, White, Buckley, Graham, Jones, Lamb, Gorringe
Young Players: Mckay, Fisher, Polson, Lebois, Williamson, Macreadie, Williamson, Kerr
That hypothetical team named above for round 1 in my opinion gives Bolton a lot to work with in terms of winning games this year. If we have a relative injury free year, then our midfield will be able to hold their own with most teams. If Pickett & Marchbank hit their straps early, then we could see more wins than expected. I believe there is a lot more seasoned talent in that hypothetical team than what the outside footy world gives us credit for.
We could expect 4 or 5 of the seasoned replacements playing a reasonable amounts of games and hopefully a couple can really surprise and give Bolton more to work with.
Out of the young players, I wouldn't expect more than 3 to 4 of them playing more than 3 to 8 games possibly later in the year. Hopefully, they find it hard to break into the team. And I think Bolton will coach this way.
There are probably 13 teams that believe they will play finals this year. I'm not including Freo, GC, NM, Bris & us
It won't take long before 2 or 3 of those teams feel the pressure because their performances don't meet their expectations and they implode ie injuries, bad game plan, loss of confidence; becoming easy pickings. Carlton does not have expectations externally. Either from the outside AFL community or their own supporters. But internally, I think Bolton has the players thinking otherwise.
I will get a lot of backlash here, but I believe we have 2 very important players that may help propel the team. I don't like Casboult in the same team as Kreuzer & Phillips for obvious reason. But I like him with only one ruckman. He is an elite pack mark and can burst packs open. If he doesn't mark it he brings it to the ground. Our young developing small forwards need someone like this to allow them front & centre opportunities. Our young tall forwards need a strong body around them to develop. His goal kicking should be looked at as a bonus. If he can do 15-20% ruck work then he is very valuable.
The other important player is Rowe. If he can hold his own or there abouts in most games & maybe do a bit rucking, this can allow Weitering to become a weapon for Bolton. He will also allow Marchbank to develop & be a more attacking defender (And if Rowe fails, he probably uses A Silvagni)
I think the last game of last year many judged Carlton. But if you look at the performances against WC, Syd, Haw & Melb before that game, then I think this paints a truer picture.
I think Bolton is a here & now type of coach. He will be developing players any which way he can. He knows he has Murphy, Gibbs, Krezuer & Simpson for 2 to 5 years and he will coach accordingly. Remember the Hawthorn model is to have young players serve an apprenticeship