Brexit - The UK referendum on leaving the EU - Reneging, reshmeging!

[Seeds]

Weird not more posters in this thread. Things are going nuts in the uk right now.

 

[The Speaker]

Watching UK Parliament right now - it doesn't look good for May and this deal. This isn't like Australian Parliament where every second question is a dixer, either, it seems like basically the entire Parliament is against her.

They all agree there are three options - this deal, no-deal Brexit, or no Brexit. Looks like the former can't get through Parliament, and May is ruling out the latter. A no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for them.

And that's to say nothing of the 4 and counting resignations including that of the Brexit Secretary.

This is brutal.

It's also dumb. The civil service and the cabinet have had a long time to prepare for this, and they just assumed they could get away with pretending that their garbage 'deal' was a real deal.

The actual conservatives in the Conservative Party deserve a kicking for supporting May to start with. The remainers deserve a kicking for thinking they can reverse the constitution when they don't like it. The EU deserves a kicking for thinking it can treat a sovereign nation like dirt.

 

[Badesumofu]

The actual conservatives in the Conservative Party deserve a kicking for supporting May to start with. The remainers deserve a kicking for thinking they can reverse the constitution when they don't like it. The EU deserves a kicking for thinking it can treat a sovereign nation like dirt.

Well this is the problem with having a binding vote on whether to do something before you determine how you'd do it. I'd say that this deal (or the alternative of a no-deal) is simply not what the people who voted in favour of Brexit thought they were voting for. It seems to me right now that there is not a majority in Parliament in favour of this, and there is likely not a majority of the voting public of the UK in favour of it. Given that it's clearly a worse deal than simply remaining in the EU it strikes me as insane to go through with it just because of the result of the original Brexit vote.

Put it to the people of the UK - this is what Brexit would look like - do you still want to go through with it?

 

[The Speaker]

Well this is the problem with having a binding vote on whether to do something before you determine how you'd do it. I'd say that this deal (or the alternative of a no-deal) is simply not what the people who voted in favour of Brexit thought they were voting for. It seems to me right now that there is not a majority in Parliament in favour of this, and there is likely not a majority of the voting public of the UK in favour of it. Given that it's clearly a worse deal than simply remaining in the EU it strikes me as insane to go through with it just because of the result of the original Brexit vote.

Put it to the people of the UK - this is what Brexit would look like - do you still want to go through with it?

I would say the bigger problem is holding a referendum when it is possible that the result will be one that a majority of MPs will disagree with.

The Commons is predominantly Remain supporters, by a large margin, and yet it is now expected to introduce legislation to leave and support it wholeheartedly. The whole point of the system is to elect a party with a platform of leaving the European Union, in order that they would implement it. The Conservatives used the referendum as a way to save themselves from being torn apart by UKIP, which they did, but at the expense of having a constitutional crisis, whereby the majority of the government is expected to support a result they did not want.

It is unprecedented. But, constitutionally, having a second referendum would create an ever bigger crisis. The Parliament has to, at some point, support legislation that matches the result of the referendum, because the referendum has essentially given them the end-point (leaving the European Union), with the expectation that they would create something that gets them to that point.

 

[Patrick Bullet]

It is unprecedented. But, constitutionally, having a second referendum would create an ever bigger crisis. The Parliament has to, at some point, support legislation that matches the result of the referendum, because the referendum has essentially given them the end-point (leaving the European Union), with the expectation that they would create something that gets them to that point.

What do you reckon would happen if they didn't?

 

[donkeypunchd]

It's also dumb. The civil service and the cabinet have had a long time to prepare for this, and they just assumed they could get away with pretending that their garbage 'deal' was a real deal.

The actual conservatives in the Conservative Party deserve a kicking for supporting May to start with. The remainers deserve a kicking for thinking they can reverse the constitution when they don't like it. The EU deserves a kicking for thinking it can treat a sovereign nation like dirt.

The UK voted to leave, with its government making contradictory promises to different parties (I.e. no to a customs union and a hard border). In some regards this deal is actually quite reflective of the vote itself, there was a slim majority for Brexit, certainly no majority for a scorched earth hard Brexit. An end to free movement and getting the ECJ removed from oversight of the backstop reflects the aims of the Brexiteer lobby, continued close ties should satisfy te large majority of remainers and inhabitants of the six counties and Scotland.

As an aside, the DUP have some brass neck standing up and complaining about this deal and the minor level of regulatory divergence as threatening to the Union. The party’s founder, Ian Paisley, was more than happy to seek special opt outs for cattle from NI during a foot in mouth crisis, on the ground they were Irish cattle not British cattle. If he could accept such things, a man who set up his own arm smuggling loyalist paramilitary outfit (and ironically the only large paramilitary group not to have decommissioned its weapons), then surely Arlene and the rest should be able to. https://sluggerotoole.com/2009/04/29/our-people-may-be-british-but-our-cows-are-irish/

 

[The Speaker]

The UK voted to leave, with its government making contradictory promises to different parties (I.e. no to a customs union and a hard border). In some regards this deal is actually quite reflective of the vote itself, there was a slim majority for Brexit, certainly no majority for a scorched earth hard Brexit. An end to free movement and getting the ECJ removed from oversight of the backstop reflects the aims of the Brexiteer lobby, continued close ties should satisfy te large majority of remainers and inhabitants of the six counties and Scotland.

'Slim majority' is irrelevant. If there's a slim majority for a vote in the Commons, the legislation still passes and that's that. By handballing the decision on the end-point to the British public, the Commons tied itself to whatever the end result of the vote was, with the expectation that it would figure out the 'how' later. Of course, the Cameron 'Conservatives' never expected Leave to win - I don't know if they even expected to win the 2015 election on their own, which means they would've had a way out if the Lib Dems 'forced' them to abandon a referendum in the coalition arrangement - so they wouldn't have needed to figure out the 'how' at all, and they would've saved themselves from UKIPed.

A number of thoughtful Leave campaigners have pointed out that the obvious way to go for a transition period would be to take Norway's arrangement, which automatically deals with things like the ECJ, and would allow them to deal with the things it doesn't cover (the four freedoms, mostly) down the track. But the end result would still have to be that the United Kingdom has left the European Union in its entirety.

What do you reckon would happen if they didn't?

A constitutional crisis, which by its very nature is chaotic and therefore difficult to peer into the mists of.

 

[Admiral Byng]

Weird not more posters in this thread. Things are going nuts in the uk right now.

It is kind of unfolding pretty much as expected. Whatever "deal" she does with Europe will be unpopular within her own party and parliament.

A deal will not be done, and a hard Brexit will result. There are just not enough politicians within their parliament who have the skills or the nouse to get it done/

 

[Patrick Bullet]

A constitutional crisis, which by its very nature is chaotic and therefore difficult to peer into the mists of.

I wasn't very specific in my post and sorry for that but I'm curious about what a crisis like that could look like. Eg does parliament get automatically dissolved, or could someone try to take the government to court due to personal losses, or does a Constitutional Police Force turn up at parliament and arrest everybody? Last one's a bit dumb obviously but I'm just trying to get a sense of whether this is something very serious or just something very theoretically complex but, in practice, nothing major would happen.

 

[The Speaker]

I wasn't very specific in my post and sorry for that but I'm curious about what a crisis like that could look like. Eg does parliament get automatically dissolved, or could someone try to take the government to court due to personal losses, or does a Constitutional Police Force turn up at parliament and arrest everybody? Last one's a bit dumb obviously but I'm just trying to get a sense of whether this is something very serious or just something very theoretically complex but, in practice, nothing major would happen.

There will have to be a decision made by a political actor with enough widely accepted authority to resolve it. That could theoretically be either the Commons, the Government or the Head of State. Whatever decision they make will be probably not have a precedent. However, the actor that makes the decision will probably define the sense of scale. If the Commons decides to collectively stay within the European Union, the issue is resolved, because even if a government is elected at the next general election with a mandate to respect the referendum result and leave the European Union, their mandate for leaving will actually come from being elected, not from the referendum. It would also set a precedent which would make any future referendums entirely pointless, as their outcome could constitutionally be ignored.

 

[The Passenger]

Seeing the born to rule mentality of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and their ilk come back to bite them on the ass is quite the piece of shadenfreude. The EU weren't quite the pushovers they thought.

It's unfortunate the ramifications could be quite brutal over here and it won't be those dish lickers who cop the brunt of it. It'll be the everyday man.

Getting paid in AUD might come in quite profitable for next UK/Euro summer.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

It's also dumb. The civil service and the cabinet have had a long time to prepare for this, and they just assumed they could get away with pretending that their garbage 'deal' was a real deal.

The actual conservatives in the Conservative Party deserve a kicking for supporting May to start with. The remainers deserve a kicking for thinking they can reverse the constitution when they don't like it. The EU deserves a kicking for thinking it can treat a sovereign nation like dirt.

I would say the bigger problem is holding a referendum when it is possible that the result will be one that a majority of MPs will disagree with.

The Commons is predominantly Remain supporters, by a large margin, and yet it is now expected to introduce legislation to leave and support it wholeheartedly. The whole point of the system is to elect a party with a platform of leaving the European Union, in order that they would implement it. The Conservatives used the referendum as a way to save themselves from being torn apart by UKIP, which they did, but at the expense of having a constitutional crisis, whereby the majority of the government is expected to support a result they did not want.

It is unprecedented. But, constitutionally, having a second referendum would create an ever bigger crisis. The Parliament has to, at some point, support legislation that matches the result of the referendum, because the referendum has essentially given them the end-point (leaving the European Union), with the expectation that they would create something that gets them to that point.

You're spreading misinformation. The referendum does not constitutionally obligate the UK government to do anything. UK law doesn't work like that. This is why Scottish National Party and Liberal Democrats MPs are still openly opposed to Brexit but nobody's calling them anti-consitution.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

The Guardian estimates House of Commons would vote down the deal 415-224. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...n-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament That includes MPs from 7 of the 8 parties (the eighth, Sinn Féin, decline to take their seats).

 

[Messenger]

Any Leave MP’s actually involved in the negotiations?

 

[raptalia]

I am no Tory but I really feel some sympathy for Teresa May. She is on a hiding to nothing as almost half of the UK did not want to leave the EU and those that did cannot decide on what they really want. David Cameron started all this so maybe he should be recalled to sort out his mess?

If the current proposal is voted down I think May has to resign and give someone else a go. At the rate that Ministers are falling on their swords she will have few of her original Cabinet left anyway. It has come to the stage where the UK has a choice, either stay in the EU or tell the Germans to get stuffed and go anyway. The first option is to fly in the face of the people's decision the second is to risk economic disaster. Maybe that third option of taking another popular vote is the way to go?

It took Britain six years to join the EU and at this rate it may well take them that long to get out.

 

[Gough]

May's cricket hero is Boycott which explains so much, a lover of Compton or Gower wouldn't have allowed this s**t show.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I am no Tory but I really feel some sympathy for Teresa May. She is on a hiding to nothing as almost half of the UK did not want to leave the EU and those that did cannot decide on what they really want. David Cameron started all this so maybe he should be recalled to sort out his mess?

If the current proposal is voted down I think May has to re sign and give someone else a go. At the rate that Ministers are falling on their swords she will have few of her original Cabinet left anyway. It has come to the stage where the UK has a choice, either stay in the EU or tell the Germans to get stuffed and go anyway. The first option is to fly in the face of the people's decision the second is to risk economic disaster. Maybe that third option of taking another popular vote is the way to go?

It took Britain six years to join the EU and at this rate it may well take them that long to get out.

David Cameron is the worst UK Prime Minister in history. Gambled the country's future for an internal party disagreement and lost.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Raab resigns: The shabby end of a pitiful career

By Ian Dunt
Thursday, 15 November 2018 11:53 AM

Dominic Raab resigned this morning over a deal he ostensibly negotiated. In reality, he'd been sidelined in recent weeks, at least since he demanded a unilateral ability to end the backstop - a suggestion which was never going to have any success in Brussels or indeed in the world of objective semantic meaning. But he sat there anyway, reading the terms of the deal, understanding the dynamics, and somehow found that this was the moment his principles kicked in.

It is hard to think of a less distinguished ministerial career. Raab was sold to us for years as the big brains on the Tory backbenches, the man who knew how to disentangle Britain from the European Convention of Human Rights without unraveling the Good Friday Agreement, the eurosceptic who really grasped the technical and trade implications of leaving the EU.

In reality, when his moment came, Raab was a nervous mess. He plastered a petrified smile on his face as he stood next to Michel Barnier after talks. It was simply embarrassing to watch him stand there and sweat in the limelight, as far better briefed negotiating partners peered at him over their glasses, like a cat looking at its prey.

Later, the full extent of his ignorance was revealed. In an astonishing aside, he revealed that he had no idea that the UK relied heavily on the Dover-Calais route for trade. In the business end of negotiation, Britain's Brexit secretary was learning the basics.

His hypocrisy took marginally longer to reveal itself. When he took the post, after the resignation of his predecessor in similar circumstances, he knew the outlines of what May was negotiating. He knew about the Irish backstop. But he sat there, issued weak threats, and then finally, when it was published, resigned. He is a shambles in human form, a chancer who got found out.

Raab has already been followed by several Brexit-supporting Cabinet secretaries and junior ministers. None of them have stated what they would do instead of the deal May has proposed. They act as if there is some kind of magical Brexit just around the corner which civil servants have simply failed to find. What it is, they are unable to say. They have no answers. They have nothing to offer except their own yearning desires for something they cannot articulate.

The dream is always just that, a dream. The reality is humiliation and chaos. From Brussels' perspective it is genuinely unclear if they have a viable negotiating partner. What a catastrophically shoddy situation for a British government to be in. Two and half years into Brexit and one of the world's leading countries is now so maimed and baffled it cannot even strike deals without politically imploding.

More Cabinet resignations would probably tople May, leading to a Tory leadership contest with just months left before the cliff-edge of no-deal. It is the behaviour of a party which is simply unfit for government, failing at even the most basic possible level of what it takes to run a country.

But even if May were to somehow survive, she would almost certainly be unable to get that deal through parliament, opening up an abyss of chaos in which Remainers and Brexiters fight for a second referendum versus a no-deal exit.

If she did somehow miraculously get it through, it would create a kind of comatose state of perpetual failure for the country.

In a debate about trade-offs between trade and control, May has somehow managed to end up with neither.

This is a result of her obsession with ending free movement on the one hand and her commitment to the frictionless border on the other. The former meant she couldn't hug Europe tight and the latter meant she couldn't push it away. So now she ends up shackled, but in a way which still inflicts serious economic pain. When people looked at potential models for Britain after Brexit they spoke of Norway and Canada. Precisely no-one said Turkey, but that is basically what she has come back with.

And even after all that, the deal still introduces checks in the Irish Sea, in the form of animal product inspections and other demands. The backstop's two-level structure keeps the UK in the customs union and Northern Ireland in the single market for goods. May has essentially signed up to exactly the terms she previously said no British prime minister would ever countenance.

Her priorities have been wrong-headed, her appointments catastrophic, and her strategies unsound. She had a poor hand and she played it badly. But at least she has tried to do something. The ministers resigning now are worse. Their irresponsibility is unparalleled in recent British history. They have demanded the impossible and then left in outrage when that is what it turned out to be.

But ultimately it's all shades of grey. There is one name for all these indignities, whatever form they come in, and that name is Brexit.

It started this. It caused May to invent her tragic red lines. It motivated her dimwitted secretary of state. It drove the UK to waste two and half years trying to secure a situation which is worse than the one it had at the start of the process. It tore the two main parties apart. It reduced Britain to an international laughing stock. It is now threatening to put us into a subservient position with an institution we used to be a leading member of. It is threatening the quality of life of countless people in this country. It is simply a patriotic outrage.

How many times must it be said? This is the worst idea which has emerged from mainstream British politics in our lifetime. The puzzle cannot be solved. Whichever angle you look at it from, it creates the same outcome. It is a travesty of logic and decency. The fact that anyone can seriously pretend otherwise says more about their psychology than it does about their politics.

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/15/raab-resigns-the-shabby-end-of-a-pitiful-career

 

[Crankyhawk]

With this news Total Power should probably update his avi

That decision seems stupid.

 

[Crankyhawk]

In the interests of moving this discussion along, here's a non-Reddit, non-payroll, non-hard right source.

https://www.dw.com/en/calling-proph...n-freedom-of-speech-european-court/a-46050749

So is the courts objection to what she said is that she didn’t provide sources or references?

 

[Elroo]

UK getting smashed as a result of the BREXIT deal;

https://www.afr.com/news/world/euro...ers-quit-putting-deal-at-risk-20181115-h17yip

British PM May vows to press on with Brexit deal after ministers jump ship

London | British Prime Minister Theresa May has vowed to press on with her beleaguered Brexit deal, but she faces a mounting political crisis as senior ministerial resignations throw into doubt the chances of parliament passing the plan and fuel speculation of a leadership coup.

"Am I going to see this through? Yes," she told a press conference early on Friday (AEDT). "Leadership is about taking the right decisions, not the easy ones. ... I believe with every fibre of my being that the course I have set out is the right one for our country and all our people."

Earlier Mrs May had been rocked by the resignation of two cabinet ministers and two junior ministers, led unexpectedly by her Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab. His move came just hours after Mrs May won cabinet approval for her Brexit plan. More senior ministerial resignations were expected as night fell in London, which would plunge the prime minister further into crisis.

Her leadership already looked tenuous, even after she spent three hours defending the deal on the floor of Parliament on Thursday. Her mutinous Brexiteer backbench was unconvinced, and influential eurosceptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg publicly threw his weight behind a leadership spill.

https://www.afr.com/news/politics/w...xit-deal-is-dead-in-the-water-20181115-h17ym7

Traders say Theresa May's Brexit deal is 'dead in the water'

"I believe with every fibre in my being that the course I've set out is the right one for our country and for all our people," says UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Matt Dunham
by Lisa Pham, Justina Lee and Kit Rees

European stocks sank on Thursday after a number of UK ministers including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned amid a growing revolt against UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1.3 per cent in afternoon trading, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.5 per cent, as a sharp drop in the pound helped limit the damage for multinational companies. Domestically focused UK sectors including banks, home builders and retailers tumbled.

Speaking to reporters outside No. 10 Downing Street, though, May said: "I believe with every fibre in my being that the course I've set out is the right one for our country and for all our people."

"Am I going to see this through? Yes."

Here are reactions to the news from market participants:

Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy for Saxo Bank

"The resignation accelerates uncertainty again and increases the probability for no deal and chaos in March 2019. The ramifications of such an outcome is too devastating for the UK/EU so some kind of extension has to be on the table. Current developments underscore our long-held view that investors should avoid general exposure to UK equities due to uncertainty. There is no reason to take this specific UK risk given the large opportunity set in global equities."

Dean Turner, economist, UBS Wealth Management

'The next 72 hours will be very challenging. I suspect the PM must have factored the resignations in when deciding whether to present this deal to the Cabinet. We have been of the view for some time that up until the PM presents this deal to the house, and there's a very good chance she loses it on the first vote, that's going to be quite a tough time for markets to find any direction because clearly the outcomes on this are so unpredictable.'

https://www.afr.com/markets/currenc...s-investors-boosts-dollar-yen-20181115-h17yid

Sterling crashes as Brexit turmoil spooks investors, boosts dollar, yen

The pound plunged after Theresa May's government was rocked by a string of high resignations led by Dominic Raab. AP
by Tom Finn and Saikat Chatterjee

London | Sterling tumbled after a series of resignations rocked Prime Minister Theresa May's government and threw into doubt her long-awaited Brexit agreement just hours after it was unveiled.

The pound fell 1.8 per cent and was set for its biggest drop this year against the euro after Brexit minister Dominic Raab resigned to protest at the draft deal with the European Union. Three other ministers followed suit.

Fears that May's hard-fought Brexit deal could collapse sent British financial markets into gyrations not seen since the sell-off prompted by the June 2016 referendum on EU membership.

British stocks sank. Shares in state-owned lender RBS fell 9.1 per cent in their worst one-day loss since the 2016 vote.

British gilt yields also plunged with the 5-year gilt yield on track for the biggest one-day decline since August 2016 when the Bank of England unleashed a round of stimulus after the Brexit vote.

The darkening outlook for Britain's economic future was also reflected in the money markets, where investors have all but priced out a rate hike by the Bank of England next year.

The cost of insuring exposure to Britain's sovereign debt through credit default swaps rose to its highest level in almost two years.

Traders fear May's leadership is now in serious jeopardy. She was set to hold a press conference at 1700 GMT.

"What concerns us is how many ministers seeing this news will be pondering if it is better to get their resignations in now rather than wait," said Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-...-deal-backlash-exporters-gain-20181115-h17yki

British stocks battered on Brexit deal backlash, exporters gain

"Anything that's a pure play on the UK economy is getting smashed today," said David Keir, co-manager of the TB Saracen Global Income and Growth Fund in Edinburgh. Bloomberg
by Helen Reid and Danilo Masoni

London | British shares suffered and sterling tumbled on Thursday as the growing risk of a disorderly divorce from the European Union spooked investors, with leading index the FTSE 100 moving for most of the day in rare lockstep with the domestic currency.

The FTSE 100 eventually ended broadly flat, reversing the session's earlier 0.8 per cent fall, which came even as sterling dived after high-profile resignations thrust Prime Minister Theresa May's government into turmoil, just a day after she clinched a draft Brexit deal.

The FTSE 100, which makes 70 per cent of its income overseas, is normally boosted by a weaker pound, but losses in companies more exposed to the domestic economy, such as banks and housebuilders, almost offset gains in the big exporters. It ended up just 0.06 per cent.

The more domestically-exposed FTSE 250 fell 1.3 per cent, while the neighbouring Irish bourse fell 3.9 per cent, its worst daily performance since the Brexit referendum more than two years ago.

"It feels a bit like 24 June 2016, to a smaller degree, as anything that's a pure play on the UK economy is getting smashed today," said David Keir, co-manager of the TB Saracen Global Income and Growth Fund in Edinburgh, referring to the day after Britain's vote on leaving the EU.

"People are fearful that this will lead to a hard Brexit and a general election which at the moment would lead to a Jeremy Corbyn (Labour) government, which would not be good for sterling or UK stocks," he added.

 

[Crankyhawk]

And there hasnt been any wars since the EU was formed. Brexiters response: lets go back to the system that reslted in wars and mass death.

Yeah I'm sure the EU is the reason and not the sword of Damocles known as nukes and US military hanging over their collective heads.

Dumb question where does the armed disintegration of yugoslavia fall? Certainly seemed like full on war. Partly makes poor forms argument as no side had nukes, can’t recall if Yugoslavia was part of the EU at the time.

 

[Mofra]

Weird not more posters in this thread. Things are going nuts in the uk right now.

There's nobody left he to defend Brexit is there?

It's sheer lunacy. If anyone read the article on Nissan and the mechanics of their supply chain that's just one example of Britain shooting themselves in the foot, reloading, and shooting the other foot too.

 

[Mofra]

It took Britain six years to join the EU and at this rate it may well take them that long to get out.

That's not an option though is it?
It's 2 years - hard or soft Brexit

 

[Gough]

The hard core Brexiteers are no different to Abbott and co here. If they don't get their own way they're prepared to tear down the whole thing. I feel for May, she's not dealing with rational people.