Brexit - The UK referendum on leaving the EU - Reneging, reshmeging!

[Total Power]

The EU? Ha. They have a vested interest in talking down post-Brexit Britain.

LOL i was being nice actually, some economists say inflation is higher than 3%

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...five-year-high-raising-heat-on-interest-rates

T
Guess you hate the poor - how dare they have career opportunities.

The REC said the increase, the second quickest rise in wages since November 2015, followed a fall in unemployment to the lowest level in 40 years that had restricted the number of workers available to take up new positions.​

If wages rise without a rise in productivity the cost will be passed onto the customers, this is basic economics. You apparently do not seem to understand that real wages are still falling which means people are getting poorer, even with the wage rise. How convinient that you took the upper end of the scale to suit your argument without realising the fact that 75% of the british people work in the service sector, is seeing more than 1% fall in real wages. But yeah carry on

 

[King Brown]

LOL i was being nice actually, some economists say inflation is higher than 3%

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...five-year-high-raising-heat-on-interest-rates

Seems like these 'experts' can't agree on anything. No wonder people eschew what they say.

I remember Lateline ran a competition on forecasting interest rates - it was always the school in Western Sydney who got it right against the 'experts' working for banks.

If wages rise without a rise in productivity the cost will be passed onto the customers, this is basic economics. You apparently do not seem to understand that real wages are still falling which means people are getting poorer, even with the wage rise. How convinient that you took the upper end of the scale to suit your argument without realising the fact that 75% of the british people work in the service sector, is seeing more than 1% fall in real wages. But yeah carry on

You still seem to be arguing against people being employed - i.e. the bleak technocrat dream i mentioned earlier where the majority is on welfare. People don't want that, they want meaningful employment and self-actualisation. Post-Brexit looks like it is delivering.

 

[Bradesmaen]

I’m not going to debate with supposed lefties who think wage rises for workers is a bad thing. Even less so a whinger who reports posts when he makes glaring factual errors and debates don’t go his way.

First and foremost, capital owners can absorb the increased cost. It’s not like capital isn’t insanely profitable at the moment. The last forty years have represented a massive transfer of wealth from labour to capital. That transfer can and should start going the other way.

Furthermore, don’t go around calling other people conservatives when you agree with the key component of right wing ideology.

Tell me then what is happening with non-factory workers here in London. Are they getting wage rises?

You really thing owners are going to absorb the cost too much? No, they aren't.

 

[Total Power]

Seems like these 'experts' can't agree on anything. No wonder people eschew what they say.

I remember Lateline ran a competition on forecasting interest rates - it was always the school in Western Sydney who got it right against the 'experts' working for banks.

Are you a right winger? if so why would you believe what "experts" say? those experts who predicted the US housing markets to keep rising forever? or those experts who are setting artificially low interest rates? sorry to the bearer of the bad news for you, but i don't believe in any experts, economists are the new astrologers, as the great Milton Friedman would tell you, the best option is for the free markets to tell you what is. And the weak pound and the inflation numbers are telling you what is going on at the moment.

You still seem to be arguing against people being employed - i.e. the bleak technocrat dream i mentioned earlier where the majority is on welfare. People don't want that, they want meaningful employment and self-actualisation. Post-Brexit looks like it is delivering.

Dude, you seem to be missing the point. People out of labour force = less people available in the job market = rise in wages, atleast for the short term, this is a no brainer. But look beyond the short term. If productivity does not improve the prices will move up, this is historically proven. But being in the Uk now , i will tell you this, Given how much the pound has tanked, there is no possible way that inflation is that low. It may look reasonable (like the figure you mentioned) due to various measures taken, but in reality it isn't. In real terms it will have been closer to 10% looking at the cost of basic items in the supermarket.

Products are being downgraded in quality to hide this fact. Most likely some taxes were lowered to stop an outrage (petrol?), and so on. But you can't hide a massive currency devaluation forever. Things are creaking badly in the seams.

 

[King Brown]

Are you a right winger?

No. Are you?

Given how much the pound has tanked, there is no possible way that inflation is that low. It may look reasonable (like the figure you mentioned) due to various measures taken, but in reality it isn't. In real terms it will have been closer to 10% looking at the cost of basic items in the supermarket.

Products are being downgraded in quality to hide this fact. Most likely some taxes were lowered to stop an outrage (petrol?), and so on. But you can't hide a massive currency devaluation forever. Things are creaking badly in the seams.

Baskets of inflation are meant to be hedonic indices that take account of degradation of goods sold.

But your argument is no different to the ShadowStats argument that happened during the 'Great Moderation'. That the inflation reported by government agencies either missed or deliberately misreported the actual inflation has been a consistent part of 'anti-expert' argument for the past 20 years. So if you're making it now based on statistics you don't agree with, then you're no different to the cynical people who thought 'experts' were self-serving frauds pre-Brexit.

 

[Total Power]

No. Are you?


Baskets of inflation are meant to be hedonic indices that take account of degradation of goods sold.

But your argument is no different to the ShadowStats argument that happened during the 'Great Moderation'. That the inflation reported by government agencies either missed or deliberately misreported the actual inflation has been a consistent part of 'anti-expert' argument for the past 20 years. So if you're making it now based on statistics you don't agree with, then you're no different to the cynical people who thought 'experts' were self-serving frauds pre-Brexit.

My argument is not based on statistics, my argument that inflation is much higher than the reported 3% is based on my cost of living expenses which has gone up much higher than 3%. I believe in the free markets, not experts as i told you. The rise in wage statistics you quote is also a stat based on survey. It does not necessarily mean "all brits" working in a factory have gotten a 3% rise. I know several people who wages been stagnated for years and still stagnated. So talking about stats, your "wage stats" is a result of a survey as well, no more than inflation data.

 

[King Brown]

The rise in wage statistics you quote is also a stat based on survey. It does not necessarily mean "all brits" working in a factory have gotten a 3% rise.

Someone doesn't understand statistics. Don't tell others off for disbelieving 'experts' if you can't get the base principles right yourself.

 

[Total Power]

Someone doesn't understand statistics. Don't tell others off for disbelieving 'experts' if you can't get the base principles right yourself.

Oh please tell me how industrial production and wages are calculated in government survey

 

[King Brown]

Oh please tell me how industrial production and wages are calculated in government survey

Do you understand sampling theories? Maybe we can go from there.

 

[Total Power]

Do you understand sampling theories? Maybe we can go from there.

LOL and how are samples collected?

 

[Total Power]

Do you understand sampling theories? Maybe we can go from there.

Just for you:

It is important to have a group of people who will participate in the survey and be able to represent the whole target population. This group is called a “sample”. Determining the right kind and number of participants in a sample group, also known as sampling, is one of the basic steps in conducting surveys.

https://explorable.com/methods-of-survey-sampling

A "sample" is a subset of survey.

For example: the US calls this National compensation survey

https://www.bls.gov/ncs/methodology.htm

And yes you are welcome.

 

[King Brown]

Just for you:

It is important to have a group of people who will participate in the survey and be able to represent the whole target population. This group is called a “sample”. Determining the right kind and number of participants in a sample group, also known as sampling, is one of the basic steps in conducting surveys.

https://explorable.com/methods-of-survey-sampling

A "sample" is a subset of survey.

For example: the US calls this National compensation survey

https://www.bls.gov/ncs/methodology.htm

And yes you are welcome.

What is the point of this post? To say you are wrong?

 

[Total Power]

What is the point of this post? To say you are wrong?

Nah to show you how governemnt collects statistics. Not my fault if you dont know what a "survey" is. But still Plenty of things are ignored, like people out of labour force, people not interested in looking for work etc etc. Look at U6 employment in US, its no different to that of inflation data

 

[King Brown]

Nah to show you how governemnt collects statistics. Not my fault if you dont know what a "survey" is. But still Plenty of things are ignored, like people out of labour force, people not interested in looking for work etc etc. Look at U6 employment in US, its no different to that of inflation data

I know what a survey is.

You’re not very good at articulating yourself, can you please try again.

 

[Total Power]

I know what a survey is.

You’re not very good at articulating yourself, can you please try again.

I did try to explain how survey's are conducted, sampling is one of them. I cannot explain to you in simpler terms, please go google.

 

[Total Power]

Anyway after the Brexit referendum, with the collapse in Sterling, food prices in the supermarkets have risen substantially more than a few percent, even ignoring shrinkflation. I've seen price rises of 20% on some product lines. This is even true for food sourced from within the UK.

Still, since most household money goes on paying rent and mortgages the Government is able to sweep this inconvenient fact under the carpet.

 

[King Brown]

I did try to explain how survey's are conducted, sampling is one of them. I cannot explain to you in simpler terms, please go google.

No, you are not explaining what aspects of the methodology you disagree with, just that you think they’re inaccurate. This is not an explanation, simply obfuscation.

 

[Total Power]

No, you are not explaining what aspects of the methodology you disagree with, just that you think they’re inaccurate. This is not an explanation, simply obfuscation.

I will try this one last time, knowing very well you know you are wrong yourself, but i still have hope for you: if you still want to claim you are right go ahead, i cannot be bothered . How could there be samples without ******* survey???

government stuff, read!!!
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm

How samples are created
BLS samples are carefully chosen. Depending on what the survey is trying to measure will influence how the sample is chosen. For example, household surveys are generally chosen such that the racial and ethnic make-up of the sample is similar to that of the nation. Samples should mimic the population value that they are trying to measure. When the characteristics (industry make-up, demographic characteristics) of the sample are similar to those of the population, there is greater confidence that the measures produced by the sample are similar to the population

 

[Total Power]

No, you are not explaining what aspects of the methodology you disagree with, just that you think they’re inaccurate. This is not an explanation, simply obfuscation.

Here is uk labour force survey.. now the government choose "samples" from within the survey. I hope this is simple enough for you, orelse you are on your own, carry on, i cannot help you anymore.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/info...holdandindividualsurveys/labourforcesurveylfs

 

[King Brown]

I will try this one last time, knowing very well you know you are wrong yourself, but i still have hope for you: if you still want to claim you are right go ahead, i cannot be bothered . How could there be samples without ******* survey???

government stuff, read!!!
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm

How samples are created
BLS samples are carefully chosen. Depending on what the survey is trying to measure will influence how the sample is chosen. For example, household surveys are generally chosen such that the racial and ethnic make-up of the sample is similar to that of the nation. Samples should mimic the population value that they are trying to measure. When the characteristics (industry make-up, demographic characteristics) of the sample are similar to those of the population, there is greater confidence that the measures produced by the sample are similar to the population

Here is uk labour force survey.. now the government choose "samples" from within the survey. I hope this is simple enough for you, orelse you are on your own, carry on, i cannot help you anymore.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/info...holdandindividualsurveys/labourforcesurveylfs

These are two different government bodies from two different countries, and you're trying to tell me the methodology you disagree with in one influences the findings in another?

FFS.

 

[Total Power]

These are two different government bodies from two different countries, and you're trying to tell me the methodology you disagree with in one influences the findings in another?

FFS.

LOL! Survey is the WHOLE thing, samples are a thing from within the survey LMAO!

 

[King Brown]

LOL! Survey is the WHOLE thing, samples are a thing from within the survey LMAO!

And? The reason why you take samples from a survey is to remove biased or noisy information.

What are you trying to tell me here?

 

[Total Power]

And? The reason why you take samples from a survey is to remove biased or noisy information.

What are you trying to tell me here?

Now you are starting to understand. Depends on what the government is trying to achieve, just like CPI can be "manipulated" why cant the surveys or samples chosen?

 

[King Brown]

Now you are starting to understand. Depends on what the government is trying to achieve, just like CPI can be "manipulated" why cant the surveys or samples chosen?

I never said CPI can be manipulated. Difficult to measure precisely, perhaps underreported because of biases against counting certain price indicators (the big one is asset prices like housing), but not manipulated.

However, this was the charge for at least 20 years in the US, that inflation was 'made up', and much higher than reported. Which would mean that people in the US (and the UK) have seen real income declines for decades. Which is what happened.

Except the Remainers, and other defenders of the status quo, insist that things were great, stats weren't fudged. And you now as a Remainer want to insist stats are fudged. As if they've all of a sudden been fudged since Brexit.

Sorry mate, don't buy it.

 

[Total Power]

I never said CPI can be manipulated. Difficult to measure precisely, perhaps underreported because of biases against counting certain price indicators (the big one is asset prices like housing), but not manipulated.

However, this was the charge for at least 20 years in the US, that inflation was 'made up', and much higher than reported. Which would mean that people in the US (and the UK) have seen real income declines for decades. Which is what happened.

Except the Remainers, and other defenders of the status quo, insist that things were great, stats weren't fudged. And you now as a Remainer want to insist stats are fudged. As if they've all of a sudden been fudged since Brexit.

Sorry mate, don't buy it.

You dont think the CPI is controversial? you must be the only one! economists argue and fight over it all the time. I can see my cost of living in the UK have increased 20 percent yet the CPI is telling me 3%, whom am i going to believe? a quick glance into investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
I agree with the bolded part, which is why i do not buy any of the CPI crap.

Btw i never claimed these datas been fudged. All i am saying is that prices have risen much more than 3%, while wages have not. All you need to do is ask an average UK factory worker how much is cost of living has gone up compared to his wage.