Toast Bring on 2026!

[sr36]

I wouldn't be assured of anything. Although I agree that Port, Carlton and Melbourne will be putrid in 2026 and am confident we can scrape more wins together than them.

Essendon is being judged on 2025, which is silly because the whole team was crippled. Their list really isn't that bad now and has plenty of promising younger players. I would not be putting them in the same boat as the teams above.

I'd say Port are the most likely of that group. They also had a shocking year of injury after being top 4 the previous two years.

 

[Ted Parker]

Safe to say, if we’re outside the top four, we’re swimming against the tide.

Ladder Position	Share of Grand Finalists	Interpretation
Top 2	40%	Finishing top‑two remains the single strongest predictor of reaching the Grand Final.
3rd–4th	40%	The double chance still matters — 80% of Grand Finalists come from the top four.
Outside Top 4	20%	It’s rare but not impossible — roughly one in five Grand Finalists come from 5th or lower.

GF Form Indicators (Home & Away Season)
Winning the Last H&A Game.
90% of Grand Finalists won their final home‑and‑away match. (Including the past nine straight).
80% won their opening match of the season.

Given we lost our 1st match 2025 against GWS by 52 points, we shouldn't have even bothered getting our hopes up...
So, following on from our defeat of Melbourne by 6 pts in our final H&A match of 2025, win our 1st match against St.Kilda then we’re GF bound in 2026...against Carlton, Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle or Brisbane Lions.

If you take this literally...