Preview Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues Round 18 Saturday 7.40pm - The Gabba

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

Davemonkey

Strider of the middle way.
Mar 13, 2012
4,070
5,522
Near the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Video games are a team aren't they?
Full disclosure: some idiot forgot to put himself into the ballot, as did his friends. I am not sure I am the right person to be writing this.

This is the almost annual festival of Blues Whacking at The Gabba (let us forget what happened at Marvel in 2019). It is also the Davemonkey Chief Cup where Chief is ritualistically whacked with a rolled up Footy Record by an excited Davemonkey every time the Lions score or the Blues do something dumb. There have been a lot of whackings in the past years. This year I will have to hit with rolled up neoprene mats from my board game collection or throw empty beer cans at him.

The game

This game promises to be a bit of a dead rubber, with Brisbane having home finals locked up and Carlton even mathematically out of the finals race. It feels like it will only go one way with a question of "how big should the margin be?" but I feel like that kind of cockiness can get us in trouble so as the coach says "we have a lot of respect for the Carlton Football Club, and they've been playing some good footy this year."

The Opposition

Except I have seen the Blues twice this year (with aforementioned whacking receiver) thanks to our unusual circumstances. I went away from the Blues/North game with a strong sense of "neither of these teams will bother us", and that was reinforced by the game against Collingwood. They can have flashes but are too reliant on the same old soldiers. I can't tell whether they remind me of the 2018 Lions (in it but not quite able to put it together, but it is coming) or the 2015 Lions (1 more season away from a coach sacking). Either way the Lions should be able to handle them.

They look best across the back line, especially with Doc's long kick (2nd biggest loss from the GH5) but they seem hopelessly disorganised going into the forward half and spill the ball as often as mark it. The Pies were able to ultimately exploit this (they were almost as bad going forward) and I can't see them handling our high pressure game. Given how solid our back 6 are I can't see this being a problem.

The one place that North were able to expose them was when they could run the ball and move it quickly. Execution let them down in the end, as well as some solid work from the Blues mids, but again, that vulnerability suits our style of play. We can open them up and if we kick straight (at least as well as last match) then it could get ugly.

The Lions
I don't foresee too many changes to be honest. I saw some optimistic Berry (in)s, but I doubt we will risk JBez before the finals. Linc may come back in but who drops out in that case, I am guessing Archie, leaving the Big O to handle the Carlton rucks with Zorks getting a few more cheeky chop outs forward ;). (New rule McStay and Oscar can't be off at the same time).
CEY will be good for the run last week and he did some solid, if workmanlike efforts. I would like to see someone other than Zorks protect Neale if he is getting a hard tag, and CEY seems the best suited to play enforcer.

Lions by 30.
 

Jivlain

Pollyanna's statistician
Sep 19, 2015
5,286
9,282
Cambridgeshire
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Swansea City, Gumbies FFC
Docherty is presumably out with that calf issue anyway. Carlton like their tall forwards so I wonder if we'll do any restructuring to matchup against that.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

jackess

Hall of Famer
Aug 10, 2005
39,933
34,920
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Docherty is presumably out with that calf issue anyway. Carlton like their tall forwards so I wonder if we'll do any restructuring to matchup against that.
Assuming they line up the same as last week I think Payne and Dizzy on McKay and Casboult (Payne on whoever is deeper or more dangerous) and Lester on McGovern (peeling off because McGovern is useless).
 

Ralphy2017

Senior List
Jul 16, 2017
288
301
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Assuming they line up the same as last week I think Payne and Dizzy on McKay and Casboult (Payne on whoever is deeper or more dangerous) and Lester on McGovern (peeling off because McGovern is useless).
At times last Sunday McKay was deep against Adelaide and seemed to find a bit of space and was mostly marked by a 2nd gamer. Although only a 4th gamer I think Payne has the tools, and his speed should hold him in good stead against McKay. Spot on with Dizzy and Lester
 

Ralphy2017

Senior List
Jul 16, 2017
288
301
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
what will the club strategy be, to win against Carlton and therefore play best 22 and put some pressure on Port in the hope Collingwood defeat Port on Monday night and we play Geelong (1 v 4). Or with Lynch (maybe missing first week of finals) be confident playing Richmond (2 v 3) and therefore against Carlton be cautious with McCarthy, Berry and even rest one or two others after a tough season.
 

jackess

Hall of Famer
Aug 10, 2005
39,933
34,920
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
what will the club strategy be, to win against Carlton and therefore play best 22 and put some pressure on Port in the hope Collingwood defeat Port on Monday night and we play Geelong (1 v 4). Or with Lynch (maybe missing first week of finals) be confident playing Richmond (2 v 3) and therefore against Carlton be cautious with McCarthy, Berry and even rest one or two others after a tough season.
We won't be resting but at the same time we won't be taking risks with injured players
 

jackess

Hall of Famer
Aug 10, 2005
39,933
34,920
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I wonder if Zorks would benefit from a couple of weeks off with the injury he has been carrying? The medicos will know what is best no doubt.
He's stated before that the condensed schedule was helping his injury so I'm guessing a rest does the opposite.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Ironmonger

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2001
10,357
17,064
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory
Carlton are really going to want to win this.

They'd be disappointed with the second half of the season. After three short breaks in a row they finally get close to a full week off. They'll have a lot of support at the Gabba. They'll be sending off Kade Simpson.

In short, every reason to think they'll run and fight as hard as anyone we've played lately. It's going to be another test of our resilience.
 

Dylan12

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2007
21,332
22,169
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Chelsea, Boston Red Sox
I do not envy our team selectors...

Part of me wants to see Rayner dropped for McCarthy so he knows he has to fight back in for finals.
Both Zorko and Robinson's kicking has been well below average this year. I almost got the impression that Fagan is happy for them to get it and just bang it as far as they can, because a lot of their kicks are nothing more than mongrel punts being that they aren't drop or torpedo punts and it has been continuous all year.
 

Jason mp

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 31, 2015
20,087
39,222
By the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Valleys. Chelsea.
We really need to change our game plan now in time for finals > Any time we get the ball outside our defensive 50 we need The Big O to run around the back and receive the handball and torpedo it 80 meters out the back for Charlie, Hippy, Linc or Keidean to run onto and stroll into an open goal ergo no need to worry about goal kicking accuracy.
 

The Zork

All Australian
Oct 8, 2014
701
1,264
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Put enough score on them early and it doesn’t matter how big a rev up Teague gives them - they’ll start thinking about the final siren and where they are planning to holiday in Queensland.

Keen to stop Cripps this year, just to show that we can do it - he absolutely pantsed us last year and we were helpless to stop him, was equal parts infuriating and impressive to watch.

1 or 2 spots up for grabs come finals so those on the fringe will put their case forward.
 

Ironmonger

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2001
10,357
17,064
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory
We really need to change our game plan now in time for finals > Any time we get the ball outside our defensive 50 we need The Big O to run around the back and receive the handball and torpedo it 80 meters out the back for Charlie, Hippy, Linc or Keidean to run onto and stroll into an open goal ergo no need to worry about goal kicking accuracy.
Finally, someone on this forum has a practical suggestion!
 

Davemonkey

Strider of the middle way.
Mar 13, 2012
4,070
5,522
Near the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Video games are a team aren't they?
Carlton are really going to want to win this.

They'd be disappointed with the second half of the season. After three short breaks in a row they finally get close to a full week off. They'll have a lot of support at the Gabba. They'll be sending off Kade Simpson.

In short, every reason to think they'll run and fight as hard as anyone we've played lately. It's going to be another test of our resilience.
Probably a fairer assessment than mine, but I can't help but think they are just not up to it. If we come out quickly and kick a few in the first like we did against Sydney and the Suns they will lose heart.
 

Section 5

All Australian
Nov 26, 2018
936
1,291
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
This game against Carlton is the complete opposite to our last round v Richmond in 2019
I believe this will be our biggest win of the season (Essendon was 63 points) even if we manage a few players as i hope we will.
Looking forward to the loud - Brisben & Lionnnss chant throughout the game

The Blues have lost the last fixture round for the previous 5 years by an average of 67 points.
In 2014 they managed a draw so you have to go way back to 2013 to find their last round victory

Round 23 2019 - lost by 68 points
Round 23 2018 - lost by 104 points
Round 23 2017 - lost by 81 points
Round 23 2016 - Lost by 24 points
Round 23 2015 - Lost by 57 Points

They will probably be without Docherty which won't help their chances.
Lions by 64 plus.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top Bottom