- Nov 8, 2017
- 89
- 271
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Honestly, I picked this week to do the preview as I expected us to be 4-0 (or 3-1) with Joe leading the Coleman, and about to kick 8 vs the Dons. Unfortunately, it hasn’t panned out that way and we’re 1-3 facing the 1-3 Bombers. We have a winnable block of games on the horizon – Essendon, Carlton (away), Port, Fremantle (away), Gold Coast (away). Optimistically, we should go 4-1 in these games, and get to 5-4 and back on track.
Key questions coming in to this week
Recent history vs Essendon
Despite the battles of the early 2000s I don’t feel a strong rivalry with Essendon recently – they’ve never really been contenders, and we’ve generally been poor which hasn’t made for important games. That said, there have quite a few memorable games between us – Bradshaw’s goal after the season to draw at the G (2009), Staker’s late goal to seal it at Ethiad (2013), and the win against Essendon’s VFL ring-ins to avoid the spoon in 2016.
There are 3 recent games vs Essendon that chart our rise over the past few years:
Essendon this season
On paper, they’re a poor side even before injuries – taking out Hurley, Shiel, Caldwell, Draper they’ll do well to avoid the bottom 4. They’re extremely raw in key positions, they’re missing their ruck, and their midfield is small and one dimensional. That said they’re having a crack and playing good footy – young players have stepped up, they’re working hard moving the ball well, and applying pressure - which is more than you can say about us. Merrett is a very good and under-rated footballer, Ridley will be AA and Tippa/Stringer can cause issues if not well defended. All said and done, it’s a side we should beat at home if we’re any good.
Changes: I usually have a good read and my finger on the pulse for team changes – but I’m a bit lost this week. Given what we’ve been through, I think Fagan will go with the same line-up and ring wholesale changes vs Carlton the week following if we go down; that said:
Preview: Is this the game we get our season back on track, or is this the crash back down to earth where we realize we’re not good enough? I see this game going one of two ways:
However much I want scenario one, I’m thinking it’ll be an uninspiring tight contest and we’ll limp across the line. Lions by 8.
Key questions coming in to this week
- Can we adjust to the new rules or have they completely destroyed our territory, contested, zonal footy? Can we take the game on, hit up leading forwards, find overlap runners, and move the ball faster?
- Will our AA calibre players re-find their form? (Neale, Cameron, Daniher, Andrews looking at you)
- Are we a good 2021 side that’s been unlucky with fixturing, umpiring and injuries, or are we just a poor side?
- Does Neale need a rest? Are we actually more reliant on him in the guts than we want to acknowledge?
Recent history vs Essendon
Despite the battles of the early 2000s I don’t feel a strong rivalry with Essendon recently – they’ve never really been contenders, and we’ve generally been poor which hasn’t made for important games. That said, there have quite a few memorable games between us – Bradshaw’s goal after the season to draw at the G (2009), Staker’s late goal to seal it at Ethiad (2013), and the win against Essendon’s VFL ring-ins to avoid the spoon in 2016.
There are 3 recent games vs Essendon that chart our rise over the past few years:
- 2017 Round 15 Etihad: Lions 90 df Bombers 82 (8pt Win): We were 2-12 coming in – Essendon went on to play finals. It was one of our few wins where we beat a top-8 side, and won a game in Melbourne. Watching the highlights you can see that our kids are good and starting to believe – young Andrews, Hipwood, Berry, McCluggage are all great. Joe kicks 3.4 for them.
- 2019 Round 4 MCG: Bombers 112 df Lions 65 (47pt win) – we were 3-0 coming in, Essendon 1-2 and it was a big test to see if we were any good. We were comprehensively beaten and learnt that our reckless rapid ball movement didn’t stack up, and we didn’t have a good small-medium defender (Tippa, Fantasia, Stringer all had a day out). On the first point we slowed down and controlled our movement, and on the 2nd Answerth debuted 2 weeks later and filled that role perfectly.
- 2020 Round 9 Gabba: Lions 91 df Bombers 28 (63pt win) – Friday night, prime time. This was one of the most ruthless Lions performances of recent history and it felt like we had arrived as a good side. We had injuries - Ballendon, Skinner, and Witherden all played – however we took the Bombers apart with our ball movement, pace, toughness and skill. Our depth looked and felt amazing with Witherden coming from the reserves to be best on ground, and probably his best game for the club.
Essendon this season
On paper, they’re a poor side even before injuries – taking out Hurley, Shiel, Caldwell, Draper they’ll do well to avoid the bottom 4. They’re extremely raw in key positions, they’re missing their ruck, and their midfield is small and one dimensional. That said they’re having a crack and playing good footy – young players have stepped up, they’re working hard moving the ball well, and applying pressure - which is more than you can say about us. Merrett is a very good and under-rated footballer, Ridley will be AA and Tippa/Stringer can cause issues if not well defended. All said and done, it’s a side we should beat at home if we’re any good.
Changes: I usually have a good read and my finger on the pulse for team changes – but I’m a bit lost this week. Given what we’ve been through, I think Fagan will go with the same line-up and ring wholesale changes vs Carlton the week following if we go down; that said:
- McStay if fit, should be back in for Fullerton – I was looking forward to seeing Dan play the Tom Lynch ‘connector’ role this season. He should reall stretch the Essendon defence.
- Answerth if fit (Ah Chee if not) in for Lester or Birchall as I think we’re too tall and slow back there. Despite being tall, we got monstered in the air vs the Dogs.
- I wouldn’t mind seeing Coleman in for T. Berry to give us another dimension up forward?
- Does Neale need a week off? If so I’d like to see Mathieson in – he has deficiencies but you can never question his effort.
Preview: Is this the game we get our season back on track, or is this the crash back down to earth where we realize we’re not good enough? I see this game going one of two ways:
- Scenario one: Everything clicks, our boys are happy being back home, we’re a good side that’s had a slow start, and the shackles come off and we win by 10 goals. Joe and Eric kick 5 each, McCluggage gets 30 touches. Relief.
- Scenario two: It’s a real scrap around the contest – McGrath, Merrett, Parish make us look 2nd rate. Some d-grade forward steps up for them with 4 goals. Our ball movement is stagnant, slow and they run and slice through us. We’re a few goals down in the last quarter but willpower and luck gets us a narrow win.
However much I want scenario one, I’m thinking it’ll be an uninspiring tight contest and we’ll limp across the line. Lions by 8.