Preview Brisbane Lions v Geelong - Thursday 24 June 2021

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MSB ROYS

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Match details

Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats

Thursday 24 June 2021 @ 7.40 7.32 pm at The Gabba - Tickets here.

Match will be shown around the country on 7/7Mate and via FoxFooty/Kayo. Details here.

History

Geelong and Fitzroy have been playing against each other since Fitzroy entered the VFA in 1884. After these two were part of the eight teams that broke away from the VFA in 1897 to form the VFL, Fitzroy were only of the early powerhouses winning 7 premierships in the first 25 years. Unfortunately, it was slim pickings afterwards except for 1944 until the merger and three-peat. Let’s not forget our unbelievable team and victory in this year’s AFLW Grand Final.

Geelong on the other hand, it took until 1925 to win a premiership, but in the last 15 years they have been a perennial finals team with flags in 2007, 2009 and 2011. They should have won at least won one subsequently and got totally ‘dusted’ in last year’s GF after their excellent first half.

VFL/AFL BBFFC overall premierships: 11. Fitzroy 1898, 1899, 1904, 1905, 1913, 1916, 1922, 1944. Brisbane Lions 2001, 2002, 2003. AFLW: 1. Brisbane Lions 2021.

VFL/AFL GFC 9: 1925, 1931, 1937, 1951, 1952, 1963, 2007, 2009 and 2011. AFLW: 0.

My conclusion is that BBFFC > GFC.

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What is at stake?

If the Lions beat Geelong, then they will move ahead of them into 3rd place on percentage. A loss will put the Lions under pressure to remain in the top 4. Probably the same for Geelong, but I am more confident that Geelong will finish Top 4.

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Head to Head Last 5 matches – Geelong 4, Lions 1.

R2 2021. Geelong 12.9 (81) df Brisbane Lions 11.14 (80) in Geelong.
Lions outplayed for the first half but came home strongly. As discussed ad nauseum, the umpires lost their bottle in the last minute and refused to pay HTB to Bailey. Not for the first time, Geelong got over the line at Kardinia Park.

Preliminary Final 2020. PF Geelong 11.16 (82) df Brisbane Lions 6.6 (42) at the Gabba. Lions totally outplayed and never looked like winning IMO. You can read about it here as it's game I try to forget, especially after the joy of beating Richmond the previous game.

R6 2020. Geelong 11.7 (73) df Brisbane Lions 6.10 (46) at the SCG. In the game for quarters 1,2 and 4 but totally outplayed in the third. Ablett was amazing in this quarter.

R22 2019. Brisbane Lions 10.15 (75) df Geelong 10.14 (74) at the Gabba. This is the game that Lincoln McCarthy took that specie and kicked the winning goal. I was there and the stands were literally shaking (see the video below). Pandemonium at the Gabba, what a day!


R19 2018. Geelong 18.12 (120) df Brisbane Lions 11.12 (78) in Geelong. Can’t remember much about this game and, looking at the scores, I have no interest in reliving it.

Possible ins and outs

Geelong’s midfielder Mitch Duncan did his knee and will miss this game. Selwood got two fines from the VFL AFL but is free to play.

I don’t think that there any Lions injuries from the game in Hobart. Zorko will come in and it’s likely that Matho will be omitted; however, Zorko could come in for Coleman if they want to keep the bigger bodied Matho in the team. I would bring Berry Snr though the VFL if he is fit to play. I haven’t been a fan of having Lester, Rich and Birchall in the same team. However, with Lester out injured, that leaves Rich and Birchall with at least some speed in Madden. I thought that Birchall was much better against the Roos, but I want to see him perform better against top teams. I think that the backline needs to get more defensive pressure from the midfield/wingers during the opposition’s transition into their forward line.

If I was on the match committee: Zorko in, Coleman out.

How it could play out

Both Geelong and the Lions forward lines are very strong and playing well. Both backlines are also playing well, and Stewart from Geelong was clearly best on ground against the Dogs. I am more nervous about the Lions backline. The Lions must make Geelong’s key defenders more accountable and not allow too many intercept marks. The same goes for Geelong with Harris Andrews. Our wings with Mitch Robbo and McCluggage are in relatively good form and will have to play well, as in the last match Menagola was too strong for Harry Sharp.

In the last few weeks, when the Lions midfield is not getting the ball, especially in the second half of the Melbourne game and even in first half against the Roos, they have looked slow and defensively poor. As cliched as it seems, the game is likely to come down to midfield dominance. Accuracy when kicking for goal will also be critical.

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Obligatory picture of Ash's goal to win the miracle on grass game.

As an aside, Chris Scott was one of my favourite players at the Lions. I admire his passion for Geelong, and I loved that passion when he played for the Lions. However, sometimes he comes across as a sook now as he is not in our organisation. Scott really needs to win another GF with his team and then become more than just a good home and away coach. Happily, he will live on memes for many years.

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Conclusion

The Lions have improved their form considerably against most teams in the last 3 year except for Geelong. As a consequence, Geelong will be confident of winning and it will probably occur unless the Lions play well in all four quarters and kick straight.

Will the Lions form improve on the big stage? My (biased) opinion is yes. The Lions will step up and win by 13 pts after the scores are even at 3Q time.
 
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Section 5

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Great write up MSB ROYS
Your point on retaining Matho for this game has some merit
I thought like most that Zorko just comes in for Matho
But Coleman is on shaky ground. Depends what coaches want for team structure I suppose
If Zorko replaces Coleman & Matho is retained, a few things could happen
A bigger mid in Matho v Geelong may be beneficial
I imagine a bigger body at clearances helps Neale
McCluggage spends more time on the wing which I prefer
McCarthy & Bailey not required much in the middle and both are good pressure players forward
If the coaches want to retain Coleman you get a similar result if you drop Prior
 

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DERRINALPHIL

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Harris Andrews has to step up. Hawkins has owned him in the last few games. Adams played a ripper game on Hawkins a few years ago so they may go that way.

Coleman out and Zorko in for me.

Paine needs a game or two in the Twos? I like having a spare tall defender but I cannot see who we would drop for him.
 

fugitive

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This game is the time to avenge prelim loss where there completely destroyed us. No slow starts, second half fade offs or goal kicking yips, this is got to be a full 4 quarter performance no excuses.
 

Jason mp

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Massive game for us particularly coming off our Preliminary Final belting in 2020 + top 4/2 implications as well, lose and top 2 is just about done and dusted and we'll be in a dogfight to even stay in the top 4, win and we're right in the hunt for top 2. It will be a good indication as to if we have improved since the Prelim loss..... Lions by 2-4 goals.

Ins- Dayne Zorko, Tom Berry.

Outs- Keidean Coleman, Rhys Mathieson.

I'd like to bring in Jack Payne as well but feel he probably needs another week or 2 in the reserves, I'm a huge Keidean fan but he hasn't shown much in this latest stint in the seniors, Tom Berry will bring some ferociousness around the ball and closing speed.

Match ups- Adams > Cameron. Andrews > Hawkins. Starcevich > Parfitt/Danger. Madden > Rohan.
 

Section 5

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The Cats are travelling well but their 3 losses were away games. The round 4 loss v Demons was at the MCG so away but not interstate
They were lucky to beat the Dogs and of course the Lions in round 2
I wonder if the coaches will have a plan to curb Stewart in defense other than kicking the ball along the ground
Thursday night is a good opportunity to beat a team above us on the ladder

Hard to gauge our loss to them in round 2 as both teams came off shock losses in round 1 (Sydney & Adelaide)
Will be completely different teams this week. These players from round 2 may not play Thursday
Geelong: Evans, Constable, Miers
Lions: Lester, Sharp, Fullarton, Payne , Tom Berry
 

martinson

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The Cats are travelling well but their 3 losses were away games. The round 4 loss v Demons was at the MCG so away but not interstate
They were lucky to beat the Dogs and of course the Lions in round 2
I wonder if the coaches will have a plan to curb Stewart in defense other than kicking the ball along the ground
Thursday night is a good opportunity to beat a team above us on the ladder

Hard to gauge our loss to them in round 2 as both teams came off shock losses in round 1 (Sydney & Adelaide)
Will be completely different teams this week. These players from round 2 may not play Thursday
Geelong: Evans, Constable, Miers
Lions: Lester, Sharp, Fullarton, Payne , Tom Berry
Looking at who we had in for that game you'd have to think our lineup is now better.

Of course they didn't have Dangerfield.
 

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lionsrules

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It’s a game i would throw Payne back in. Allow Andrews to float and have him helping out Payne and Adams and fill the gap and intercept. Pretty sure in 2019 one point win Adams kept Hawkins goalless. Zorko in for Coleman. Would have been good to have J Berry in.
 

Dalions

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Not sure we need to be throwing things around too much for such an important game.
Minimal changes for me.
Happy enough to keep Matho in for the bigger bodied Geelong.
So just Zorks for Coleman.
 

Section 5

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Looking at who we had in for that game you'd have to think our lineup is now better.

Of course they didn't have Dangerfield.
Don't think our lineup will be better compared to theirs from round 2
Without me crossing off who played and who did not, the below players were missing for the Cats in round 2 but played v Dogs this week.
Danger (as you mentioned), Jeremy Cameron, Menegola, Ratugolea and Close. (Duncan did not play round 2 and will miss this game also)
For Lions it was McStay, Adams, Dev Robertson (Maybe Matho depending on selection)
I may have missed some
 

Zacisonfire

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What I'm most interested in is how we match up on the 3 headed monster. Hawkins has had the better of Andrews so I'd like to see Adams start on him, Starcevich could go to Cameron which leaves Madden who has the pace to play on Gary Rohan. This leaves Andrews to play a slightly loose roll keeping in mind alot of traffic will be going through these three.
 

fugitive

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Out Coleman, Daniher, Matho. Really we got very little out of these three.
In Zorks, McFadyen, Joyce.

We ruck Oscar against Rats and Mcstay against Blicavs. When Hawkins rucks we use Adams.
Daniher frees up Hipwood to kick goals otherwise he will get towelled up, I’m not sure that should or will happen.
 

KissKiss

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I wonder if the coaches will have a plan to curb Stewart in defense other than kicking the ball along the ground
He has been in incredible form all year (again) so agree this will be a key for us. Do we back McStay to keep him out of the contest? Or copy the dogs and chaos ball it forward? With Cameron and McCarthy (and our talls who can be surprisingly good below their knees) the ground ball could be effective
 
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