Preview Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood - Round 5 2019, April 18

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Fatcat08

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Match Details
7:35 pm Thursday 18 April 2019, The Gabba, Brisbane
Weather: 18-27 degrees, 40% chance of showers

The pre-ramble (the lids are back?)

Well this wasn't really the intro I ideally wanted to write, but its the one I thought I would be. After a series of widely accepted lid prising performances to kick the year off, the weekend saw the lid, if not slam shut then at least come flying back into out solar system. While most lid comments and general optimism has been made in good nature with a sense of acceptance that it wouldn't last forever, the weekend proved a timely reminder that we're still a side with a lot of work to do to be a consistent force in the comp. Still if we were going to have a bad performance (inevitable) then hopefully we got it all out of our system before the first real blockbuster at the Gabba in many many years. Because that is what this game is, especially for the Lions. Talk of 30,000+ people crowd with the Lions (3-1) hosting the (2-2) Pies has certainly given this game a bit more juice than many would have expected entering the season. One might have expected all the focus to be on Dayne Beams' return to the gabba to dominate the narrative, but instead it will be all about the football and whats happening on the field, which is a bloody refreshing change. I for one will be there and will be equal parts excited and nervous (it may be time for pre game calming schnapps!)

The Season So Far (flatter to deceive)

Flatter to deceive? Yes and no. The Lions have certainly been better to start the season (not that hard TBH) with one emphatic win where we really did dominate followed by two linearly down-trending wins and an absolute spanking. What started as a statistically massive improvement has slowly drifted back to the norm of last season culminating in a game on the weekend where all our last season warts were back to haunt us. Contested Possessions, Clearances, ball movement and a slow looking defensive transition all poked their heads up to say hi!! Remember us!! However while last year this sort of performance felt normal, and about where we were at, I just didn't get that feeling last weekend. I saw a team that was playing unnaturally and almost counter to everything that had come before it so far this season. Its the main reason why I tend to view last week as more of an anomaly then a reversion to the mean. Still we're going to have to correct things pretty quickly to make sure it doesn't become our accepted lot in life once again. All good things for the lions seem to come with a "but" and this week is no exception, with a big time free to air easter game vs the pies leaving us with a 5 day break heading in. Still beggers can't be choosers, and thankfully it leaves us with little time to anyone to get too down about last week - on we march!!

For the pies its probably been the reverse in that I feel from my limited viewing they have played better than their results. I can't quite put my finger on why they haven't quite put it all together yet, with another struggling win on the weekend against a member of the myriad of teams (including us) who sit in that "how good are they really" zone that seems to be spreading across the league like a plague to start the season. As the season progresses the good teams tend to emerge, lets just hope its not this week, because as much as it pains me the pies are a good team. While the pies are racking up uncontested possessions at will again, their contested work and intercepting are well down on last season, which does seem strange given the midfield they have at their disposal. Still it feels eerily like some lions midfields over the last decade in that the sum of the parts just isn't adding up (albeit their parts are much better) and the mix just doesn't seem to be quite right. As lions fans would know, when your ruckman is 9 clearances ahead of your best midfielder than something is definitely not quite right. From the outside it does seem like the addition of Beams isn't quite having a net positive affect on their output and that sidebottom (who was great last year) seems to have been pushed out a bit more with detrimental affects. Lets hope this isn't the week it all clicks.

The Matchups

Modern footy tries its best to render this part obsolete (with some coaches trying there best to protecting players from ever having a one on one matchup) but they're still important. Still team matchups are almost becoming bigger factors. The dons presented a classic case of a clubs strength lining up with another ones weakness, and boy didn't we get exposed with it. The Pies don't present this same concern, even though they're a better overall side. They lack that real explosive ball movement from one end to the other, rather relying on a more mark and kick game, one which I believe we're a much better matchup for personnel wise. We seem to have a number of guys who can work very hard defensively in transition, however they're just not great at doing it at express pace. And while the Pies should be a good clearance and contested side on paper, the mix of their inside and outside mids just isn't quite working, something which we seem to have a decent balance.

I could go through danger players, but when you make the big dance the previous year you're going to be stacked with them. De Goey seems like an easy one to mention and certainly loves kicking a few against us that's for sure, while down back its been a combo of Moore and Howe coming up with most of their intercept play, with Crisp doing it more up outside defensive 50. And obviously the big one in the middle is Grundy, who is probably the best ruckman in the comp, however is one Stef matches up well on due to the similar nature of their play. Still I think that our overall defensive structure matches up well with the Pies and our midfield certainly has proven that it can win the contested footy this season. Perhaps the biggest factor will be whether we can resurrect our non existent forward line and ball movement that appeared (or disappeared) last week.

Overall I see us a pretty good matchup across the ground and certainly a much better one structure and strength wise than the Dons.

Still you can't help but look at our record against the pies before you get too excited, without a win (and some pretty big losses) since 2014. However as last year showed we can be competitive with them, especially at the gabba.

One key factor will be the dew. I thought that we have outplayed and handled the ball better in slippery conditions which seems to be an advantage as we now have a number of players with what appears to be very good handling in the wet or less than optimal conditions. Its the sort of weather which can find out teams who work the ball around by foot a lot, especially if you can get even a little bit of body pressure in what would normally be very advantaged marking contests.

As far as changes go for the lions i'm a bit torn personally. While the calls for someone like Answerth to get the nod I'm not so sure. Personally I'm a believer in giving guys who come in at least two games to get up to speed, thereby turning those not quite moments from their first game into positive plays. Still i'm not going to be outraged either way.

While I'd like to tip the lions, a decade of mental scarring has left me unable to quite take that leap yet, but i'm screaming out to be proven wrong. Bounce back boys and shove it right in my face.

Pies by 8
 

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dlanod

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The calls for Hodge to be dropped have come every week. We want our best team out there is all I am saying who cares how old he is. I
sure if he not good to go he will be the first to say so and that’s different that supporters wanting him dropped.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
The calls for Hodge to be rested increased after his relatively indifferent last couple of games. Is his spot beyond reproach regardless of his playing standard?
 

TheSmokies

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#6
The calls for Hodge to be rested increased after his relatively indifferent last couple of games. Is his spot beyond reproach regardless of his playing standard?
not sure how hodge could be dropped maybe rested for one game but its only round 5 and on the weekend he was the only one who had composure, i get he has been around for a long time but he helped so much without him we would have lost by 100.
 

jason pm

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#7
Prince James Aish will definitely be playing, Nathan Buckley mentioned him on SEN this morning saying he has been playing a great role for us.
 

jackess

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#9
not sure how hodge could be dropped maybe rested for one game but its only round 5 and on the weekend he was the only one who had composure, i get he has been around for a long time but he helped so much without him we would have lost by 100.
What a ridiculous exaggeration
 

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Lions_Insider

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#14
Do we know what the crowd will be if every ticket is sold and they all show up LI?

The official capacity is approximately 42,000.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/spor...d/news-story/3cf19cca8aa09890636a8cb000b113a3

The Gabba’s capacity is listed as 41,974 in the official AFL season guide but those figures are outdated.

New, larger, screens introduced in the past three years have cut available seating.

And like international cricket which has a reduced capacity due to the creation of the pool deck and for sight screens, the ground is remodelled for AFL matches also which also reduces capacity.

There is a veranda corporate area and electronic signage behind the benches which wipes out close to 500 seats.

The capacity of sellable seats is now about 34,000.
 

WA Lion

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#15
I'm realistic enough to think that even if we bounce back strongly after the weekend's reality check, we will still be underdogs in this game.

I think it will all come down to our pressure. When we pressure well, we also seem to move the ball with more confidence and intensity, with everything seemingly clicking in to gear for us.

I would like to see a big game from Lyons in the middle, Lachie Neale needs some help against Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom etc. I would also like to see Rayner up the ground a little more to get him more involved in the game.
 

Tom14

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#16
https://www.couriermail.com.au/spor...d/news-story/3cf19cca8aa09890636a8cb000b113a3

The Gabba’s capacity is listed as 41,974 in the official AFL season guide but those figures are outdated.

New, larger, screens introduced in the past three years have cut available seating.

And like international cricket which has a reduced capacity due to the creation of the pool deck and for sight screens, the ground is remodelled for AFL matches also which also reduces capacity.

There is a veranda corporate area and electronic signage behind the benches which wipes out close to 500 seats.

The capacity of sellable seats is now about 34,000.
Afl.com.au's story is similar for those who can't read behind the paywall :) https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-04-15/lions-eye-first-gabba-sellout-since-fevs-debut-
 

Tom14

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#18
Some further info from the courier mail article:

The capacity of sellable seats is now about 34,000.

The record AFL crowd at the venue is 37,224 between these two clubs in 2005 so there is no chance of a new record being set.

However, the largest crowd in recent times was the previous “Beams Game” where 31,214 saw him take on Collingwood for the first time.

That number is set to tumble and if the anticipated number of Gabba and Queensland Cricketers Club members turn out the Lions believe they will hit 35,000.

Brisbane are now advising fans who want to go to the game but have yet to secure a ticket to purchase a membership.

Memberships are also on the increase.

The figure grew from 21,362 in coach Chris Fagan’s first year in charge to 24,867 in 2018. Already this year it has reached 25,867.
 

Nunez

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#20
So much focus has gone into this game. I hope the boys take last week's loss as a huge reminder we need to give it 110% mentally and physically if we are to win any game this season - let alone one with so much at stake. If we win, this could be a permanent fixture each year and bring the club good money but also give the players a big crowd each year to play in front of. In a way it's got a finals feel to it. So much more to win than four points.

I reckon we will put in and I feel like we have every chance to walk away victors.

Three sleeps until we find out.
 

Dylan12

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#23
Well that sounds pessimistic for the sake of it. There will be more Lions' supporters than Pies at the very least 50-50.
I lived in Brisbane for the 09 and 10 seasons and and have come up annually every year a couple of times a year including the Collingwood game at the Gabba in 2016 when we were held goalless in the first half IIRC and it always seemed to me that they we were well outnumbered when we played the likes of Collingwood and Carlton. Also keep in mind that a lot of Collingwood fans will travel up for this game being Easter and the generous incentives the Qld Gov't provided to Collingwood members to attend this game. We're barely scrapping 20K people in our first two games and that comprisies quite a lot of opposition fans, so given that this game is almost a sell out, most of those additional fans are Collingwood ones.
 

The Zork

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#24
12-24 months ago I would of called this an audition to get another prime time free to air game against a big club.

I think there is enough public internal AFL and media interest surrounding us now to warrant ongoing games regardless if we get beat Thursday.

Hoping we make a good fist of it nevertheless.

Other than Pendlebury and Sidebottom, their other good mids Adams, Treloar and Beams can butcher a Sherrin under a bit of heat.
Similarly If we get put under the pressure and sky balls then they will pick us off and hurt us the other way.

If they have time and space to use it, especially on a turnover, then they will cut us up. Simple as that.

We have no one who will match De Goey out of the goal square - he is actual dynamite on the lead.

Going to have to slow their entries and bank on beating them in the air and cleaning up on the ground.
 

CarterS

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#25
I lived in Brisbane for the 09 and 10 seasons and and have come up annually every year a couple of times a year including the Collingwood game at the Gabba in 2016 when we were held goalless in the first half IIRC and it always seemed to me that they we were well outnumbered when we played the likes of Collingwood and Carlton. Also keep in mind that a lot of Collingwood fans will travel up for this game being Easter and the generous incentives the Qld Gov't provided to Collingwood members to attend this game. We're barely scrapping 20K people in our first two games and that comprisies quite a lot of opposition fans, so given that this game is almost a sell out, most of those additional fans are Collingwood ones.
Worth noting that Broncos attendance to their home games so far this year (except the one against North QLD which got 45K) have been 21K and 24K.

I remember that game in 2016, was looking forward to it more months and months, big Friday night game, then we came out and produced that first half.
 
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