Fatcat08
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Match Details
7:35 pm Thursday 18 April 2019, The Gabba, Brisbane
Weather: 18-27 degrees, 40% chance of showers
The pre-ramble (the lids are back?)
Well this wasn't really the intro I ideally wanted to write, but its the one I thought I would be. After a series of widely accepted lid prising performances to kick the year off, the weekend saw the lid, if not slam shut then at least come flying back into out solar system. While most lid comments and general optimism has been made in good nature with a sense of acceptance that it wouldn't last forever, the weekend proved a timely reminder that we're still a side with a lot of work to do to be a consistent force in the comp. Still if we were going to have a bad performance (inevitable) then hopefully we got it all out of our system before the first real blockbuster at the Gabba in many many years. Because that is what this game is, especially for the Lions. Talk of 30,000+ people crowd with the Lions (3-1) hosting the (2-2) Pies has certainly given this game a bit more juice than many would have expected entering the season. One might have expected all the focus to be on Dayne Beams' return to the gabba to dominate the narrative, but instead it will be all about the football and whats happening on the field, which is a bloody refreshing change. I for one will be there and will be equal parts excited and nervous (it may be time for pre game calming schnapps!)
The Season So Far (flatter to deceive)
Flatter to deceive? Yes and no. The Lions have certainly been better to start the season (not that hard TBH) with one emphatic win where we really did dominate followed by two linearly down-trending wins and an absolute spanking. What started as a statistically massive improvement has slowly drifted back to the norm of last season culminating in a game on the weekend where all our last season warts were back to haunt us. Contested Possessions, Clearances, ball movement and a slow looking defensive transition all poked their heads up to say hi!! Remember us!! However while last year this sort of performance felt normal, and about where we were at, I just didn't get that feeling last weekend. I saw a team that was playing unnaturally and almost counter to everything that had come before it so far this season. Its the main reason why I tend to view last week as more of an anomaly then a reversion to the mean. Still we're going to have to correct things pretty quickly to make sure it doesn't become our accepted lot in life once again. All good things for the lions seem to come with a "but" and this week is no exception, with a big time free to air easter game vs the pies leaving us with a 5 day break heading in. Still beggers can't be choosers, and thankfully it leaves us with little time to anyone to get too down about last week - on we march!!
For the pies its probably been the reverse in that I feel from my limited viewing they have played better than their results. I can't quite put my finger on why they haven't quite put it all together yet, with another struggling win on the weekend against a member of the myriad of teams (including us) who sit in that "how good are they really" zone that seems to be spreading across the league like a plague to start the season. As the season progresses the good teams tend to emerge, lets just hope its not this week, because as much as it pains me the pies are a good team. While the pies are racking up uncontested possessions at will again, their contested work and intercepting are well down on last season, which does seem strange given the midfield they have at their disposal. Still it feels eerily like some lions midfields over the last decade in that the sum of the parts just isn't adding up (albeit their parts are much better) and the mix just doesn't seem to be quite right. As lions fans would know, when your ruckman is 9 clearances ahead of your best midfielder than something is definitely not quite right. From the outside it does seem like the addition of Beams isn't quite having a net positive affect on their output and that sidebottom (who was great last year) seems to have been pushed out a bit more with detrimental affects. Lets hope this isn't the week it all clicks.
The Matchups
Modern footy tries its best to render this part obsolete (with some coaches trying there best to protecting players from ever having a one on one matchup) but they're still important. Still team matchups are almost becoming bigger factors. The dons presented a classic case of a clubs strength lining up with another ones weakness, and boy didn't we get exposed with it. The Pies don't present this same concern, even though they're a better overall side. They lack that real explosive ball movement from one end to the other, rather relying on a more mark and kick game, one which I believe we're a much better matchup for personnel wise. We seem to have a number of guys who can work very hard defensively in transition, however they're just not great at doing it at express pace. And while the Pies should be a good clearance and contested side on paper, the mix of their inside and outside mids just isn't quite working, something which we seem to have a decent balance.
I could go through danger players, but when you make the big dance the previous year you're going to be stacked with them. De Goey seems like an easy one to mention and certainly loves kicking a few against us that's for sure, while down back its been a combo of Moore and Howe coming up with most of their intercept play, with Crisp doing it more up outside defensive 50. And obviously the big one in the middle is Grundy, who is probably the best ruckman in the comp, however is one Stef matches up well on due to the similar nature of their play. Still I think that our overall defensive structure matches up well with the Pies and our midfield certainly has proven that it can win the contested footy this season. Perhaps the biggest factor will be whether we can resurrect our non existent forward line and ball movement that appeared (or disappeared) last week.
Overall I see us a pretty good matchup across the ground and certainly a much better one structure and strength wise than the Dons.
Still you can't help but look at our record against the pies before you get too excited, without a win (and some pretty big losses) since 2014. However as last year showed we can be competitive with them, especially at the gabba.
One key factor will be the dew. I thought that we have outplayed and handled the ball better in slippery conditions which seems to be an advantage as we now have a number of players with what appears to be very good handling in the wet or less than optimal conditions. Its the sort of weather which can find out teams who work the ball around by foot a lot, especially if you can get even a little bit of body pressure in what would normally be very advantaged marking contests.
As far as changes go for the lions i'm a bit torn personally. While the calls for someone like Answerth to get the nod I'm not so sure. Personally I'm a believer in giving guys who come in at least two games to get up to speed, thereby turning those not quite moments from their first game into positive plays. Still i'm not going to be outraged either way.
While I'd like to tip the lions, a decade of mental scarring has left me unable to quite take that leap yet, but i'm screaming out to be proven wrong. Bounce back boys and shove it right in my face.
Pies by 8
7:35 pm Thursday 18 April 2019, The Gabba, Brisbane
Weather: 18-27 degrees, 40% chance of showers
The pre-ramble (the lids are back?)
Well this wasn't really the intro I ideally wanted to write, but its the one I thought I would be. After a series of widely accepted lid prising performances to kick the year off, the weekend saw the lid, if not slam shut then at least come flying back into out solar system. While most lid comments and general optimism has been made in good nature with a sense of acceptance that it wouldn't last forever, the weekend proved a timely reminder that we're still a side with a lot of work to do to be a consistent force in the comp. Still if we were going to have a bad performance (inevitable) then hopefully we got it all out of our system before the first real blockbuster at the Gabba in many many years. Because that is what this game is, especially for the Lions. Talk of 30,000+ people crowd with the Lions (3-1) hosting the (2-2) Pies has certainly given this game a bit more juice than many would have expected entering the season. One might have expected all the focus to be on Dayne Beams' return to the gabba to dominate the narrative, but instead it will be all about the football and whats happening on the field, which is a bloody refreshing change. I for one will be there and will be equal parts excited and nervous (it may be time for pre game calming schnapps!)
The Season So Far (flatter to deceive)
Flatter to deceive? Yes and no. The Lions have certainly been better to start the season (not that hard TBH) with one emphatic win where we really did dominate followed by two linearly down-trending wins and an absolute spanking. What started as a statistically massive improvement has slowly drifted back to the norm of last season culminating in a game on the weekend where all our last season warts were back to haunt us. Contested Possessions, Clearances, ball movement and a slow looking defensive transition all poked their heads up to say hi!! Remember us!! However while last year this sort of performance felt normal, and about where we were at, I just didn't get that feeling last weekend. I saw a team that was playing unnaturally and almost counter to everything that had come before it so far this season. Its the main reason why I tend to view last week as more of an anomaly then a reversion to the mean. Still we're going to have to correct things pretty quickly to make sure it doesn't become our accepted lot in life once again. All good things for the lions seem to come with a "but" and this week is no exception, with a big time free to air easter game vs the pies leaving us with a 5 day break heading in. Still beggers can't be choosers, and thankfully it leaves us with little time to anyone to get too down about last week - on we march!!
For the pies its probably been the reverse in that I feel from my limited viewing they have played better than their results. I can't quite put my finger on why they haven't quite put it all together yet, with another struggling win on the weekend against a member of the myriad of teams (including us) who sit in that "how good are they really" zone that seems to be spreading across the league like a plague to start the season. As the season progresses the good teams tend to emerge, lets just hope its not this week, because as much as it pains me the pies are a good team. While the pies are racking up uncontested possessions at will again, their contested work and intercepting are well down on last season, which does seem strange given the midfield they have at their disposal. Still it feels eerily like some lions midfields over the last decade in that the sum of the parts just isn't adding up (albeit their parts are much better) and the mix just doesn't seem to be quite right. As lions fans would know, when your ruckman is 9 clearances ahead of your best midfielder than something is definitely not quite right. From the outside it does seem like the addition of Beams isn't quite having a net positive affect on their output and that sidebottom (who was great last year) seems to have been pushed out a bit more with detrimental affects. Lets hope this isn't the week it all clicks.
The Matchups
Modern footy tries its best to render this part obsolete (with some coaches trying there best to protecting players from ever having a one on one matchup) but they're still important. Still team matchups are almost becoming bigger factors. The dons presented a classic case of a clubs strength lining up with another ones weakness, and boy didn't we get exposed with it. The Pies don't present this same concern, even though they're a better overall side. They lack that real explosive ball movement from one end to the other, rather relying on a more mark and kick game, one which I believe we're a much better matchup for personnel wise. We seem to have a number of guys who can work very hard defensively in transition, however they're just not great at doing it at express pace. And while the Pies should be a good clearance and contested side on paper, the mix of their inside and outside mids just isn't quite working, something which we seem to have a decent balance.
I could go through danger players, but when you make the big dance the previous year you're going to be stacked with them. De Goey seems like an easy one to mention and certainly loves kicking a few against us that's for sure, while down back its been a combo of Moore and Howe coming up with most of their intercept play, with Crisp doing it more up outside defensive 50. And obviously the big one in the middle is Grundy, who is probably the best ruckman in the comp, however is one Stef matches up well on due to the similar nature of their play. Still I think that our overall defensive structure matches up well with the Pies and our midfield certainly has proven that it can win the contested footy this season. Perhaps the biggest factor will be whether we can resurrect our non existent forward line and ball movement that appeared (or disappeared) last week.
Overall I see us a pretty good matchup across the ground and certainly a much better one structure and strength wise than the Dons.
Still you can't help but look at our record against the pies before you get too excited, without a win (and some pretty big losses) since 2014. However as last year showed we can be competitive with them, especially at the gabba.
One key factor will be the dew. I thought that we have outplayed and handled the ball better in slippery conditions which seems to be an advantage as we now have a number of players with what appears to be very good handling in the wet or less than optimal conditions. Its the sort of weather which can find out teams who work the ball around by foot a lot, especially if you can get even a little bit of body pressure in what would normally be very advantaged marking contests.
As far as changes go for the lions i'm a bit torn personally. While the calls for someone like Answerth to get the nod I'm not so sure. Personally I'm a believer in giving guys who come in at least two games to get up to speed, thereby turning those not quite moments from their first game into positive plays. Still i'm not going to be outraged either way.
While I'd like to tip the lions, a decade of mental scarring has left me unable to quite take that leap yet, but i'm screaming out to be proven wrong. Bounce back boys and shove it right in my face.
Pies by 8
