Brownlow Betting: 2010 Brownlow Talk Blog

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

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Thread starter #1
Hey there guys,

Having celebrated in my small mound of riches i received for my betting efforts on the Brownlow last year, i have since been inspired to create my first blog called "2010 Brownlow Talk" and help you guys share in the glory. I haven't done much advertising for my first blog, having created it late last year, so i thought i'd give you guys a look with the 2010 season fast approaching.

http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com/

Basically, the purpose of the site is to offer insights into the performances of players throughout the season, and in doing so, hopefully help you pick the Brownlow winner for season 2010. Furthermore, i will investigate the numerous betting agencies, and highlight any value picks on offer throughout the many Brownlow markets, such as Team Betting. Plus many other different articles will feature throughout the year.

Come and check it out, and feel free to give any feedback or general advice.

Cheers! :thumbsu: :)
 

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asanque

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#2
Nice blog mate :)

I had a great year last year on the Brownlow as well.

Look forward to your constant updates.

I prefer less long range bets from the start of the season, so will only be monitoring at this stage.
 

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

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Thanks for checking it out asanque, i appreciate it. :)

I understand what you mean though, as there is so much that can go wrong during the season in regards to form drops and injuries that can derail your bet from the get go. Plus, there is nothing to really base your bet on, apart from your own predictions and previous years form.

As you would've saw in one of my writeups on the blog, i got a little lucky with my pre-season Brownlow betting. But i really would only recommend putting bets on a couple of players you consider smokies and look real value.

BTW i've added another article today, and will do so more frequently over the next couple of weeks when i have more free time.

Anyway mate, i hope i can help you replicate your winning form - as well as my own ;) - for this year as well. :thumbsu:
 

banana_bus

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#4
Looks good. Like yourself I had a handsome Brownlow last year.

All I know is Adam Cooney @ $51 screams value. Having his best preseason ever and the Dogs are going to have massive crack at it this year.

Throw a pineapple on it and at the end of the season you may be enjoying a few cigars and cocktails on him.
 

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

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Looks good. Like yourself I had a handsome Brownlow last year.

All I know is Adam Cooney @ $51 screams value. Having his best preseason ever and the Dogs are going to have massive crack at it this year.

Throw a pineapple on it and at the end of the season you may be enjoying a few cigars and cocktails on him.
Thanks mate! :)

You're dead on regarding Coondog. As you said, given the Doggies will come very close to winning it, if not winning it outright, you'd suggest Cooney will inevitably have to have a massive season. In comparison, another previous Brownlow medalist in Bartel is priced at $26, and yet he has Ablett there to steal his votes.

I haven't placed any pre-season bets yet, but it might be worth wagering a cool $10 on the Coon at such long odds.

Also, i've since added a couple more articles for anyone that's interested, with many more to come in the next few days. :thumbsu:
 

asanque

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#6
Hey Walker

Any thoughts on the Rising Star?

I prefer that for long-term betting as opposed to the brownlow, simply because there are fewer potential winners.

Pretty wide field this year and as such there is a bit of value.

At present, I'm on the favourites being NicNat (at 7.00), Martin (at 10.00), Trengove (8.00), Ziebell (8.00), Scully (15.00), Robinson (41.00).

Other potentials I'm not yet on are Shuey and Vez.

I got on Rich at 12-1 at the start of last year (small wager), and loaded up on Palmer before the year before at an amazing 1.85 before the count (beating Rioli).

This year though is in my opinion the best crop of youngsters for a long time.

Edit:
I like Cooney at 51-1 for the Brownlow, but prefer other long-term markets at the moment.
 
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#7
Hard to ignore Hodge, Pendlebury, Cooney and Black before the season starts. All could be playing in top 4 teams. Hodge at 67 has to be tempting with a forecast new role in the midfield, looking fitter, dominating his first came. Also has no Buddy to compete with for votes against the dees round 1, doubt he'd stay at that price for long.

FWIW I think S.Black will have a 2nd brownlow around his neck come September.
 

stuziman

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#8
Hard to ignore Hodge, Pendlebury, Cooney and Black before the season starts. All could be playing in top 4 teams. Hodge at 67 has to be tempting with a forecast new role in the midfield, looking fitter, dominating his first came. Also has no Buddy to compete with for votes against the dees round 1, doubt he'd stay at that price for long.

FWIW I think S.Black will have a 2nd brownlow around his neck come September.
im loving Pendlebury this year

umpires love him and he is a dead set gun! this coming from a melb supporter haha

did anyone find out if the centrebet multi's on the brownlow are happening this year

i might email them to find out if they will take most team votes in multi's and if they dont im going to complain and close the account

they can't go taking our money then for once we win some $$ they change the rules!!!!!
 

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#10
Hard to ignore Hodge, Pendlebury, Cooney and Black before the season starts. All could be playing in top 4 teams. Hodge at 67 has to be tempting with a forecast new role in the midfield, looking fitter, dominating his first came. Also has no Buddy to compete with for votes against the dees round 1, doubt he'd stay at that price for long.

FWIW I think S.Black will have a 2nd brownlow around his neck come September.

I'd agree strongly with Pendlebury, Cooney and Black, Pendlebury and Cooney especially are 2 names high up on my radar at the moment.

Before placing a bet on Hodge I would suggest looking back at his last 2 years polling history, for mine 67 is still well and truely unders. I think Hawthorn's best chances are Franklin and Sewell, with Burgoyne being the smokey if you are willing to shop around for good odds.
 

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

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Hey Walker

Any thoughts on the Rising Star?

I prefer that for long-term betting as opposed to the brownlow, simply because there are fewer potential winners.

Pretty wide field this year and as such there is a bit of value.

At present, I'm on the favourites being NicNat (at 7.00), Martin (at 10.00), Trengove (8.00), Ziebell (8.00), Scully (15.00), Robinson (41.00).

Other potentials I'm not yet on are Shuey and Vez.

I got on Rich at 12-1 at the start of last year (small wager), and loaded up on Palmer before the year before at an amazing 1.85 before the count (beating Rioli).

This year though is in my opinion the best crop of youngsters for a long time.

Edit:
I like Cooney at 51-1 for the Brownlow, but prefer other long-term markets at the moment.
You're not wrong there mate, this year would have to be one of the hardest in trying to pick an outright winner for the Rising Star.

I've chosen not to bet on it for that very reason, but if i were to try and narrow it down it'd be either of these 4: NicNat @ $7.00, Trengove @ $8.00, Ziebell @ $8.00, Martin @ $10.00 (naturally, best value).

Even so, with the amount of talent that is going to be contending for the award this year, it wouldn't surprise me if another player not mentioned comes from the shadows and wins it.
 

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#12
I'd agree strongly with Pendlebury, Cooney and Black, Pendlebury and Cooney especially are 2 names high up on my radar at the moment.

Before placing a bet on Hodge I would suggest looking back at his last 2 years polling history, for mine 67 is still well and truely unders. I think Hawthorn's best chances are Franklin and Sewell, with Burgoyne being the smokey if you are willing to shop around for good odds.
I agree his last two years have been underwhelming, but he has polled 16 votes in 07 and 15 in 05 so can poll. I would like something juicier than 67, but on the other hand, that could be the best you see this year with Franklin out for round 1 and a potentially big win on the cards. A standout game could see that slashed in half and it may not get back out there again. In that sense I see value there. I'd say Sewell, Buddy and even Mitchell are a touch short.
 
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#15
Scott Thompson is $251 on Centrebet. Naitanui is $31, unbelievable.

I read this and thought of you AhSteveSteve27. I then looked over and saw that it was you.

How people burn dollars so outrageously is beyond me, I'd offer 500/1 on NN.

Heath Shaw is value at 801/1 and 126/1 top five (sportingbet).
 
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#16
I read this and thought of you AhSteveSteve27. I then looked over and saw that it was you.

How people burn dollars so outrageously is beyond me, I'd offer 500/1 on NN.

Heath Shaw is value at 801/1 and 126/1 top five (sportingbet).
Just as many flogs got on Cuzzy last year. 801 for Shaw's probably a bit much, but still not worth it IMO.
 

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#18
I agree his last two years have been underwhelming, but he has polled 16 votes in 07 and 15 in 05 so can poll. I would like something juicier than 67, but on the other hand, that could be the best you see this year with Franklin out for round 1 and a potentially big win on the cards. A standout game could see that slashed in half and it may not get back out there again. In that sense I see value there. I'd say Sewell, Buddy and even Mitchell are a touch short.
With Franklin not playing round one and a pretty much certain win that round I can see where you are coming from, a strong game first up and a really good year 67 may be as good as you get, however I still cant see him really getting close to winnning the medal come season's end.

I cant think of any player who has had a strong negative turn in brownlow polling and turned it around to poll strongly again(I'm sure there are a couple of examples, and i would be happy to be proven wrong here). There are plenty of cases of a player polling well early in his career, then dropping off sharply despite a simliar output that i can think of.

probably the biggest example of this would be chad cornes (22 votes and third overall in 2004 and only 19 votes in total since then despite having a few really good years)
Nick Riewoldt had his best polling year in 2004(17 votes) i'm pretty sure everyone in the footballing world would agree his best footyball has been played since then, especially in the last 2 years.
andrew mcloud dropped off to an extent after 2003
dane swan is a more recent example, like hodge needs a few more years to really confirm it though.

I may be proven wrong, and i'd be happy to see you make some money from it, but there are a lot of players i would put money on before hodge.


Scott Thompson is $251 on Centrebet. Naitanui is $31, unbelievable.
This is amazing! Naitanui should still be $500+ and even then i wouldnt touch him. Scott Thompson is actually a really good smokey in my opinion - the crows will win a lot of games this year, Bernie Vince will take the number 1 tag in most games so for the first time in about 3 years Thompson will be given some freedom, and Thompson actually has a really good history.

If Centrebet allowed multi's with those team markets they have up already I would sign up for an account today!
 

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr

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This is amazing! Naitanui should still be $500+ and even then i wouldnt touch him. Scott Thompson is actually a really good smokey in my opinion - the crows will win a lot of games this year, Bernie Vince will take the number 1 tag in most games so for the first time in about 3 years Thompson will be given some freedom, and Thompson actually has a really good history.

If Centrebet allowed multi's with those team markets they have up already I would sign up for an account today!
Just checked out Sportingbet and found quite a bit of value in regards to the Top 5 market. Scott Thompson is very nice value at $26, with Pendlebury also at $12 for Top 5, and $67 to win outright for those interested in Pendles. Quite a few more value picks among those. :thumbsu:

Also, just an update regarding my blog; i've added a couple more articles/player previews in the past few days for anyone interested. :)
 
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#20
Does anyone have some advice on making an excel spreadsheet for doing votes this year?

Saw some pretty good layouts on the stats board threads and am looking to put my votes down in excel as the season goes on (just did it in Word last year). I am useless with Excel, any help would be awesome.
 
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