Brownlow Guru Speaks - 2015

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BrownlowGuru

Debutant
Sep 20, 2007
139
279
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 9 years).

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Goldstein, Gaff) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Fyfe N (Fre) 2.628
Goldstein T (Kang) 4.426
Gaff A (WCE) 10.56
Hannebery D (Syd) 11.23
Priddis M (WCE) 13.77
Mitchell S (Haw) 13.84
Dangerfield P (Adel) 56.82
Mundy D (Fre) 63.85
Kennedy J (Syd) 76.82
Martin D (Rich) 133.9
Pendlebury S (Coll) 234.4
Gray R (Pt A) 361.0
All others > 1000


PLACE (top 3)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.356
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.730
Hannebery D (Syd) 2.884
Mitchell S (Haw) 3.195
Gaff A (WCE) 3.481
Priddis M (WCE) 3.496
Dangerfield P (Adel) 9.334
Kennedy J (Syd) 10.681
Mundy D (Fre) 12.103
Martin D (Rich) 19.784
Pendlebury S (Coll) 26.826
Gray R (Pt A) 41.500
Armitage D (St K) 57.749
Jones N (Melb) 118.727
Swan D (Coll) 205.135
Neale L (Fre) 250.819
Cotchin T (Rich) 329.166
Steven J (St K) 330.948
Wallis M (WB) 343.161
Boak T (Pt A) 360.697
All others > 500


PLACE (top 5)
Fyfe N (Fre) 1.134
Goldstein T (Kang) 1.295
Hannebery D (Syd) 1.730
Mitchell S (Haw) 1.799
Priddis M (WCE) 2.017
Gaff A (WCE) 2.223
Dangerfield P (Adel) 3.876
Kennedy J (Syd) 4.230
Mundy D (Fre) 5.055
Martin D (Rich) 7.169
Pendlebury S (Coll) 8.652
Gray R (Pt A) 12.978
Armitage D (St K) 16.186
Jones N (Melb) 29.017
Swan D (Coll) 51.513
Neale L (Fre) 66.449
Cotchin T (Rich) 68.399
Boak T (Pt A) 70.213
Wallis M (WB) 78.458
Steven J (St K) 84.061
Ward C (GWS) 119.677
Ellis B (Rich) 121.066
Jacobs S (Adel) 201.641
Mitchell T (Syd) 221.965
All others > 250
 

BrownlowGuru

Debutant
Sep 20, 2007
139
279
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I've released the Win and Place predictions a little earlier this year, whileI will continue posting in this thread I will not be releasing the Exotic Markets (Rnd 5 leader / teams / groups etc.) through BigFooty this year.

Please PM me for any queries you have on this.
 

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Gysberts2Bate

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 12, 2013
17,541
20,784
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
N Jones ahead of B Vince?

Pretty good pick up on Dom Tyson as a chance to place last year - ended up coming something like 15th with the most votes of midfielders 21 and under which I don't think anyone expected.
 

DangerSloane

Hall of Famer
Jul 13, 2012
43,058
20,531
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
Yeh dangerfield at 50+ is ludacris.
He was $60 to 1 last year and finished 4th.

In a worse season, where Adelaide won less games.

For reference the Brownlow 'Guru' had dangerfield at over $1000 to 1 last year.
 

kangars

Debutant
May 21, 2006
79
42
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Brownlow guru won me some good Cashola back in 2011

I've got $20 each way on dangerfield at 23s which one still happy with despite bg giving him huge odds.

I am liking the odds for Goldstein though. He's paying 2.2 on betfair for a top 5 finish
 

simba_

ask me how to use this space for advertising
Jun 2, 2009
12,979
8,667
50XX
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, mew2king, Utah Jazz
the year dane swan won it, i won some good money because of you. i think i'll give it another go!
 

BrownlowGuru

Debutant
Sep 20, 2007
139
279
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
is the reason you aren't releasing exotics because you are charging for them somewhere?
Pretty much.

Other factors have me considering whether I can justify the time required for this in 2016. If there is enough interest I'll continue doing it, otherwise it probably won't get the attention needed.
 

BrownlowGuru

Debutant
Sep 20, 2007
139
279
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Dangerfield $56! Surely not serious BG.....
Dangerfield is the certainly the one that my model differs the most with.

According to my model, he's had a very similar year to 2014 - but I don't expect him to get the same armchair ride from the umpires. Even if he does - I'm expecting the winner to get around 26-28 votes, and it's unlikely he's going to get those numbers
 

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