Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)
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mattybomb22
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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I asked a few weeks back about Pendles being a chance to win.
Ever since then he has been superb. Wish I put something on him at the start of the year. Really hoping Swanny wins but also have one eye on my fav player Pendles
Seems to be very similar feel to last year. very similar ladder positions [just Bris, Adel are down, and Syd, Freo up which shouldn't effect things much] and the same players doing the same things as discussed through all the posts here. Only major difference is Ablett and Swan have swapped places in the odds to this time last year.
therefore finishing positions would be Swan 1st, Judd 2nd , Hayes 3rd.
but good luck Pendles still!!!
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I hear you and like Selwood at the price but the flu worries me whether he plays or not. Massive game tomorrow night.
Watch for Hodge to blitz as well in Tassie as he's playing the Freo 2nds.
I often put last minute bets on with Centrebet or Sportingbet and they both close about 30 secs before the Friday night game starts. I'd be pretty sure that all bookies would be the same. Last year the TAB used to re-open Brownlow markets mid morning Sat until the next match but they don't do that this year.
I hear you and like Selwood at the price but the flu worries me whether he plays or not. Massive game tomorrow night.
Watch for Hodge to blitz as well in Tassie as he's playing the Freo 2nds.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
hahaha thats golden, probably the single worst person to give a special exception to from their point of view. Had my first time really having crack at the brownlow last year and had pretty bloody good result too from my low expectations/I didnt really have a plan (about 1500 from a 50 outlay). So intend on having a larger go at it this year.
hahaha thats golden, probably the single worst person to give a special exception to from their point of view. Had my first time really having crack at the brownlow last year and had pretty bloody good result too from my low expectations/I didnt really have a plan (about 1500 from a 50 outlay). So intend on having a larger go at it this year.
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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
He might get 1. Shouldn't get 2 or 3. Ball and Swan should get the 3 and 2 votes. Swan got us back on top with a brillant 3 minutes and Bally had high 20 touches and kicked 3 goals (i think). From what I remember of the game Judd seemed to turn it over a few bit but I might be wrong it was a while ago.
He might get 1. Shouldn't get 2 or 3. Ball and Swan should get the 3 and 2 votes. Swan got us back on top with a brillant 3 minutes and Bally had high 20 touches and kicked 3 goals (i think). From what I remember of the game Judd seemed to turn it over a few bit but I might be wrong it was a while ago.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I'm quite sure that he will poll in that game.
Yep it was a while ago but when I click on my Brownlow spreadsheet, go to the Carlton TAB, look at R6, scroll across to Judd and I see 1.75 ( my weighting system ) and 2 votes next to it.
I'm quite sure that he will poll in that game.
bombersaway
Senior List
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Hey has anyone got any memories of these articles(swan champion data or whatever else re brownlow) effecting the chances of players getting votes in the past?
Im really starting to think that swan will miss out again this year may poll better than last year and should but i just cant see him winning.
Similar thing i was thinking with selwood last week and all the talk about he's tactics getting free's i think the umps may have gone cold on him because it looks as though he is making them look stupid
Hey has anyone got any memories of these articles(swan champion data or whatever else re brownlow) effecting the chances of players getting votes in the past?
Im really starting to think that swan will miss out again this year may poll better than last year and should but i just cant see him winning.
Similar thing i was thinking with selwood last week and all the talk about he's tactics getting free's i think the umps may have gone cold on him because it looks as though he is making them look stupid
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Do you think this could be the last year of multing? or do you think the other bookies/agencies will open them up again next year if TAB sportsbet do them this year? hence keeping up with their competitors etc.
Do you think this could be the last year of multing? or do you think the other bookies/agencies will open them up again next year if TAB sportsbet do them this year? hence keeping up with their competitors etc.
bombersaway
Senior List
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
dont have my other computer with me with my votes on it but i remember giving judd 2 and im pretty sure ball 1, maybe pendles or swan 3 not sure about that one though
dont have my other computer with me with my votes on it but i remember giving judd 2 and im pretty sure ball 1, maybe pendles or swan 3 not sure about that one though
bombersaway
Senior List
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
was thinking the same today im sure someone like alan eskander or matt trip will give it some thought they both try to stay in front and keep the punters coming
was thinking the same today im sure someone like alan eskander or matt trip will give it some thought they both try to stay in front and keep the punters coming
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
We should focus on building a bank and hitting the winner even harder in future years. I reckon that the TAB would need to not lose badly on them this year to keep them going.
I think that we should treat it as our last year. Surely all, most or some of us on here ( plus others ) will win big on the multis this year.
We should focus on building a bank and hitting the winner even harder in future years. I reckon that the TAB would need to not lose badly on them this year to keep them going.
CheckSide_
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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I would like to hear peoples thoughts on different multi combination's. Last year i pick three teams where it was a clear "2 horse race" and multied every combination (8). This worked really well for me and i think i will look to do the same thing again. Thoughts?
eg. (Last year)
Thopson - Vince
LeCras - Priddis
Watson - Stanton
This year i'm thinking about including 4 teams, giving a total of 16 different combination's. This year, what teams do you think represent a "2 horse race" ?
North - Harvey, Swallow
Freo - Barlow, Sandi
Collingwood - Swan, Pendulbury
Geelong - Ablett, Selwood
Bulldogs- Cooney, Boyd
West Coast-Priddis, LeCras
????
I would like to hear peoples thoughts on different multi combination's. Last year i pick three teams where it was a clear "2 horse race" and multied every combination (8). This worked really well for me and i think i will look to do the same thing again. Thoughts?
eg. (Last year)
Thopson - Vince
LeCras - Priddis
Watson - Stanton
This year i'm thinking about including 4 teams, giving a total of 16 different combination's. This year, what teams do you think represent a "2 horse race" ?
North - Harvey, Swallow
Freo - Barlow, Sandi
Collingwood - Swan, Pendulbury
Geelong - Ablett, Selwood
Bulldogs- Cooney, Boyd
West Coast-Priddis, LeCras
????
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Yes, another interesting fact is that the round 6 match was the most Judd had gotten his hands (37 disposals) on the ball in a single game in 4 years (more precisely since round 5 2006). Serious leather poisoning and in a game which was competitive up until the last quarter, I will be very surprised if he doesnt poll here.
Yes, another interesting fact is that the round 6 match was the most Judd had gotten his hands (37 disposals) on the ball in a single game in 4 years (more precisely since round 5 2006). Serious leather poisoning and in a game which was competitive up until the last quarter, I will be very surprised if he doesnt poll here.
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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Personally I Dont think Judd will win it. Chance of a place and i can understand everyone looking for value but first few weeks 0, then eceryone assumes when Carlton wins he gets the 3 but theres other players who had heaps of it in those games and arent without a chance, Because he missed 3, unlike Swan if he gets a game where people have predicted him to get 3 and he gets 1 or 0 hes just about cactus, just my 2cents
Personally I Dont think Judd will win it. Chance of a place and i can understand everyone looking for value but first few weeks 0, then eceryone assumes when Carlton wins he gets the 3 but theres other players who had heaps of it in those games and arent without a chance, Because he missed 3, unlike Swan if he gets a game where people have predicted him to get 3 and he gets 1 or 0 hes just about cactus, just my 2cents
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I have put a fair bit on hodge this week. The $8 is great value considering he was almost half that three weeks ago. I think he is still up amongst it at the moment and am gambling on him polling well in his last 2 games. A BOG and a 1 vote game will do very nicely and could just about win it for him. There is a chance of that happening, also the fact that the hawks will be gunning for 5th /6th position they dont have the luxury of resting players.
Got my fingers crossed.
I have put a fair bit on hodge this week. The $8 is great value considering he was almost half that three weeks ago. I think he is still up amongst it at the moment and am gambling on him polling well in his last 2 games. A BOG and a 1 vote game will do very nicely and could just about win it for him. There is a chance of that happening, also the fact that the hawks will be gunning for 5th /6th position they dont have the luxury of resting players.
Got my fingers crossed.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
My theory is this - if the umpires forgave Judd's "pressure point" as just a brain fade and forgot about it - he wins. If the umpires thought that tarnished him a "little" then he places and if they thought it was a low act he may struggle. Same applies with the Pav elbow.
Also, does anyone think the Black umpire spray vs North Melbourne means he may struggle to get votes in the second half of the year? It really was a massive burst, he let them have it! Reckon Brown might be a very good bet to lead Brisbane's votes.
And because everyone else has an opinion on it - Judd 1 vote vs Pies.
My theory is this - if the umpires forgave Judd's "pressure point" as just a brain fade and forgot about it - he wins. If the umpires thought that tarnished him a "little" then he places and if they thought it was a low act he may struggle. Same applies with the Pav elbow.
Also, does anyone think the Black umpire spray vs North Melbourne means he may struggle to get votes in the second half of the year? It really was a massive burst, he let them have it! Reckon Brown might be a very good bet to lead Brisbane's votes.
And because everyone else has an opinion on it - Judd 1 vote vs Pies.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I was looking at the relationship between the player with the most BOGs and if they win or not.
2002: Most Bogs = Black (5) , Winner = Black (5) with 8 others on 4
2003: Most Bogs = McLeod (6) , Winner = Ricciuto (4), Buckley (2) and Goodes (2)
2004: Most Bogs = Judd (7) , Winner = Judd (7) with 2 others on 5
2005: Most Bogs = Cousins (4) , Winner = Cousins (4) and 6 others
2006: Most Bogs = Goodes (7) , Winner = Goodes (7) with 2 others on 6
2007: Most Bogs = Bartel (8) , Winner = Bartel (8) with 1 other on 7
2008: Most Bogs = Cooney (6) , Winner = Cooney (6) and 2 others
2009: Most Bogs = Ablett (8) , Winner = Ablett (8) with 1 other on 6
So for 7 times of the last 8 years, the winner has had the most BOGs, taking out this stat outright on 5 occasions.
I was looking at the relationship between the player with the most BOGs and if they win or not.
2002: Most Bogs = Black (5) , Winner = Black (5) with 8 others on 4
2003: Most Bogs = McLeod (6) , Winner = Ricciuto (4), Buckley (2) and Goodes (2)
2004: Most Bogs = Judd (7) , Winner = Judd (7) with 2 others on 5
2005: Most Bogs = Cousins (4) , Winner = Cousins (4) and 6 others
2006: Most Bogs = Goodes (7) , Winner = Goodes (7) with 2 others on 6
2007: Most Bogs = Bartel (8) , Winner = Bartel (8) with 1 other on 7
2008: Most Bogs = Cooney (6) , Winner = Cooney (6) and 2 others
2009: Most Bogs = Ablett (8) , Winner = Ablett (8) with 1 other on 6
So for 7 times of the last 8 years, the winner has had the most BOGs, taking out this stat outright on 5 occasions.
Monte Carlo
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
WOW, its starting to get heated on the Brownlow board. Yet, i love that everyone is so passionate about stealing from the bookies haha.
I'm glad everyone has jumped on the Pendles band wagon, when some wrote my bet off early in the year. Really think he's got a chance with (most likely) 18.5 wins for the pies this year.
Just wondering how many posters on here are Melbournians. I said earlier that last year me and some mates went to Crown last year for the count, had some frothies and mingled with the players afterwards. Wondering if anyone is keen to meet up to cheer on some wagers and enjoy some beverages? i reckon it would be a bit of fun haha.
WOW, its starting to get heated on the Brownlow board. Yet, i love that everyone is so passionate about stealing from the bookies haha.
I'm glad everyone has jumped on the Pendles band wagon, when some wrote my bet off early in the year. Really think he's got a chance with (most likely) 18.5 wins for the pies this year.
Just wondering how many posters on here are Melbournians. I said earlier that last year me and some mates went to Crown last year for the count, had some frothies and mingled with the players afterwards. Wondering if anyone is keen to meet up to cheer on some wagers and enjoy some beverages? i reckon it would be a bit of fun haha.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Insane, a couple of hours ago he was at $14. What's weird is he is still $4.20 for a place.
Before I take Watson for a ride how do people see him polling for Essendon. I have him comfortably leading on around 10-12 votes with stanton his nearest on between 4-6. Is it worth chucking a good sum of moolah on Watson or is he no longer worth it?
judd into 10.50 on WA TAB
Got him at 12
Lol and sandilands is at 10.50. Ridiculous amount of freo love here,
Insane, a couple of hours ago he was at $14. What's weird is he is still $4.20 for a place.
Before I take Watson for a ride how do people see him polling for Essendon. I have him comfortably leading on around 10-12 votes with stanton his nearest on between 4-6. Is it worth chucking a good sum of moolah on Watson or is he no longer worth it?
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
May as well wait for multis, is what im doing at least. Would say him and goodes are safe atm. With Thompson also pretty safe but not as safe as goodes/watson.
May as well wait for multis, is what im doing at least. Would say him and goodes are safe atm. With Thompson also pretty safe but not as safe as goodes/watson.
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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Exactly what I did last year man, but with 4 teams
Hayes/Goddard
Le Cras/Selwood
Black/Brown
Thompson/Vince
Then with 2 anchors added, I had 16 bets of 6 legs each ... worked well & I was able to clean up last year. I'll again be risking anchors & a chance to lose it all for the chance to win big. Agree 100% with the strategy of finding teams where you can be reasonably sure it's a 2 horse race, & then covering them both.
Exactly what I did last year man, but with 4 teams
Hayes/Goddard
Le Cras/Selwood
Black/Brown
Thompson/Vince
Then with 2 anchors added, I had 16 bets of 6 legs each ... worked well & I was able to clean up last year. I'll again be risking anchors & a chance to lose it all for the chance to win big. Agree 100% with the strategy of finding teams where you can be reasonably sure it's a 2 horse race, & then covering them both.
Uncle Carlos
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Very very good stat, I like it! Just jumped on again Judd at TAB vic before they dropped him down as well. Love to join ya at the crown mate but some of us stuck in tassie don't have such an option!
Very very good stat, I like it! Just jumped on again Judd at TAB vic before they dropped him down as well. Love to join ya at the crown mate but some of us stuck in tassie don't have such an option!
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Adelaide - Thompson
Brisbane - Black
Carlton - Judd
Collingwood - Swan
Essendon - Watson
Fremantle - Barlow (Sandi 2 behind)
Geelong - Ablett
Hawthorn - Hodge
Melbourne - Sylvia
North - Harvey
Port - Cassisi
Richmond - Deledio
St Kilda - Hayes
Sydney - Goodes
West Coast - LeCras
Western Bulldogs - Griffen
Adelaide - Thompson
Brisbane - Black
Carlton - Judd
Collingwood - Swan
Essendon - Watson
Fremantle - Barlow (Sandi 2 behind)
Geelong - Ablett
Hawthorn - Hodge
Melbourne - Sylvia
North - Harvey
Port - Cassisi
Richmond - Deledio
St Kilda - Hayes
Sydney - Goodes
West Coast - LeCras
Western Bulldogs - Griffen
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